A safer bet for increased payroll

The Twins have new part owners, including Craig Leipold, an owner in the Twin Cities market of another team that is definitely Going For It this season. This has led to some hope of a larger payroll this year. The Twins bullpen is the weakest section of the team, and they could use a right handed bat to round out the offense. Why not put some money towards improving the pen, or grabbing an outfielder? 

For an organization that has come out of debt, and has historically been conservative anyways, I can't imagine that they will change their strategy and spend a lot of money on the bullpen. They never have, for one thing, but also, bullpen arms are volatile. A team that is playing it safe won't be investing in a volatile asset, not at significant expense. Using their bumper crop of starting pitcher prospects to fill out the bullpen is a much likelier strategy.

Perhaps there is an opening for one of those right handed outfielders. There aren't any big ticket names out there. Maybe Starling Marte fits the bill? But even then, that wouldn't elevate the payroll dramatically. And might not really change the pulse of the team by a whole lot, either. 

The team isn't strong in all areas. They are going to rely on some young players to carry heavy loads. Those players haven't always been consistent, and slow starts to the careers of Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee and Matt Wallner helped drag the team down last year. But they are young, and need to play in order to sort things out, get a rhythm and succeed. Failing that, there are players like Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper and and Gabriel Gonzalez who will get chances as early as this year. In addition to money, signings would want years, which the Twins won't want to give. They don't want to block playing time for those young up and comers. 

While the window is only marginally open, success for some highly regarded prospects will jam the window open a bit wider this year. One of the best farm systems in baseball means that a wide open window can be imagined on the near horizon, and that can be done without a significant near term investment. 

The Twins have put themselves in a spot where they have alienated their fan base with cost cutting over the last few years, but in doing so have given themselves enough assets worth exploring that it would be something of a disservice to not give them a chance to prove their pedigrees. With the sale of a share of the team and the excising of their debt, the Twins have a little bit of money to spend, and nowhere good to spend it.

Yet.

Maybe it's the middle aged dad in me, but having this financial flexibility rings more like a good opportunity for the future, rather than a something to burn through right now. The past is in the past, and the players the Twins lost in the last few months aren't coming back. But now, the Twins have the resources to keep some players on the roster now for longer than they might otherwise.

As I've made clear several times now, the Twins have a lot of young talent on the way to the roster. Some of those players are going to be better than others. Some of them won't have similarly scaled players coming behind them in the system. Maybe Luke Keaschall continues what he started last year. Why not sign him to an extension now, with a higher guarantee than he might otherwise get at his age and experience? Why not give Royce Lewis some security now, when his value is probably lower than it will be ever again? I think Joe Ryan is already looking ahead to greener pastures, but with the bumper crop of starters coming up, maybe Pablo Lopez will want to move into a mentorship role? Perhaps Mick Abel or Connor Prielipp make a fantastic impression. Extension, extension, extension.

The payroll flexibility that the Twins have found isn't likely to be used on the market, as much as the fans want it to be. The increased payroll should be used to do what it should have been used for 3 years ago: player retention, and keeping a good team together. 

Twins curiously sign Josh Bell

 Josh Bell looks like a Major League first baseman is supposed to look. Let's get that out of the way first and foremost. The Twins have trotted out a collection of first basement the last few years that have been fairly small in stature, from Donovan Solano to Carlos Santana to Ty France and the heir apparent, Kody Clemens, they have all been a little on the short side. the Twins signed Bell this morning for one year and $7 million in guaranteed salary between the annual salary, a bonus and a buy out. Bell is 6'3 and 261lbs. That is the build of a first baseman. 

It makes sense that the Twins signed a first baseman, one that can hit with a bit of thump. His deal is reasonable, perhaps even half of what many had theorized the Twins would expend on a first baseman. In fact, I would guess that the fact that Bell accepted such a reasonable salory is a primary factor in the Twins agreeing to go with him. Bell is a good player, but an imperfect fit for everything the Twins need. 

Bell is a switch hitter who should be good for about 20-25 home runs this season. His switch hitting bat should get him to play in almost every game, so long as he keeps hitting and stays healthy. That frees Clemens to move around a bit, to fulfill a role he is more aptly suited for. So far, I've said nothing but good things about the signing, and justifiably so! To make it clear, at $7 million in total value, adding Josh Bell is almost something ou have to do. But a few million more may have addressed all of the needs the Twins are looking to fulfill.

Bell, the switch hitter, has historically been a better left handed hitter than right handed. The Twins need someone that can be counted on to hit a few dingers, and Bell is that. The thought was that the Twins were replete with left handed hitters at the typical offensive positions, the corner outfield, first base and DH, and needed a right handed bat to balance the order, and to spell all those lefties. Bell doesn't quite do that. 

It's not even a "if the Twins are really going for it" kind of thing. The team just doesn't make a ton of sense right now with the talent arranged such as it is. There are some hitters on the team that need to be platooned, without much of a platoon partner for them. Matt Wallner will probably play in right field every day, with Bell at first. Against lefties the best choice might be to have Ryan Jeffers as the DH, with Alex Jackson sneaking into the lineup, with Trevor Larnach at DH against righties, and Clemens in the field in left instead of Austin Martin. 

Don't be surprised if this isn't the end of the offseason. There is cash for a few bullpen options thanks to Bell's affordability, but also, there is probably some new impetus to recalibrate the offense. There are a ton of left handed corner outfielders in the organization, and the Twins will need to find someone who can hit from the other side of the plate. 

Good news in a sea of bad news never seems like good news.

It's been an interesting couple of days that seem mildly positive, from a certain point of view. The Twins, who by now you know are a constant disppointment, have signalled that they will not be selling their star players, are looking to add to their roster. Also, there is some inklings that the new partial owners will be named in the next few days, adding a bit of stability in what has been an extremely unstable time. 

We aren't likely looking at the halcyon days of 2019-2023, but this does give the team a little bit of wiggle room, and speaks to the faith that the team not only has in the three players referenced as the core of the roster, but also the young players still developing and ready to emerge. Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Matt Wallner, Luke Keaschall and a slew of high minors arms that are ready to claim spots in the rotation and bullpen. 

There is cautious optimism from many fans and writers about the team. Cautious because they don't expect the payroll to balloon, but now it seems as though the payroll won't crater, either. Basically, the Twins are in the same spot they have been since Carl Pohlad was in charge. In the AL Central that could be a winning hand.

But then, there is La Velle Neal, the venerable Star Tribune columnist who immediately took to the news and said he "isn't buying it" (I'm not linking to Twitter, btw), and further expanded that he expected Joe Ryan to be traded by spring training. To my knowledge, this is the only readable content anywhere from Neal on the subject. That isn't insight, but it does ring true with a lot of long suffering fans, and many that are shorter suffering in the past 6 months or so.

I've thought this since the deadline sell off, and everything Derek Falvey has said since then has echoed my thoughts. They went into the deadline saying they wanted a certain price for Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax, and didn't expect teams to try to match it. Then the Phillies did. The rental players also left, and they got offers they couldn't turn down on an oft injured Brock Stewart and Louis Varland (you don't make that deal unless you REALLY like Kendry Rojas and Alan Roden). Eventually Griffin Jax asked for a trade, and Carlos Correa more or less asked for a deal too. Even then, the Twins tried to get Christian Walker from the Astros as part of a Correa deal. That would have turned the whole deadline narrative around a bit. 

The Twins got a bunch of high minors talent to go along with some high end talent at the lower levels. It was a hopeful reposition for 2026, and now it sounds like Falvey and Jeremy Zoll were able to convince the Pohlads and whomever else is an interested party that this is a group to continue building around. The rotation will be a strength in 2026. The offense is a work in progress. The bullpen has time to develop, because if the other two phases of the game aren't clicking, an elite bullpen is irrelevent. That's where the Twins were at last year.

Now, could a situation like July 31st arrive again this offseason? Maybe. This is the only way I'm agreeing with La Velle, that the Twins could end up trading Joe Ryan: Someone meets their astronomical price tage while at the same time allowing the Twins to remain in contention in 2026. That's a very tall order, but not impossible. It isn't something that would happen over the winter, either. They will need to see something out of multiple arms already in the organization, not just one Joe Ryan replacement. 

Neal reflexive call out of disbelief, however, and how that echoes a fan base that was stung last summer is indicatvie of the reason why I think Falvey was able to convince ownership not to force a further payroll trim. The fans stopped showing up last year, and they are disinclined to trust the front office. More payroll trimming will mean even fewer fans and another low revenue season. This isn't what new investors are looking for. 

The new ownership group and structure is expected to be revealed later this week. I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe Ryan at the press conference. 

The Twins agenda for the Winter meetings

 The baseball winter meetings are around the corner, scheduled to begin in Orlando on Sunday, and given the reports recently coming from Jeff Passan, that Byron Buxton may be willing to waive his no-trade clause for more teams than just the Braves, indications are that the Twins have signaled a further tear down. Maybe this is just Passan reading tea leaves from others, but regardless, it appears as though the Twins are going to be one of the teams to watch, one way or another. 

 But what does the time in Orlando look like? I've got some items for the Twins to check off next week.

- Arrive on December 6th. Get there early to get settled in and ready. Nothing worse than feeling ill prepared because you're tired!

- Attend the draft lottery. The Twins have the second best odds for the #1 overall pick!

- Participate in the Rule 5 Draft. This is one of the staples of the Winter Meetings, and a good way to get someone flying under the radar. 

- Engage in conversations with other organizations and agents

- Wait 3 more months before making any more substantial moves. 

Oh, you thought this was going to be a to do list of things to get done at the Winter Meetings? Yeah, this is the Twins. Even if something crazy is going to happen, the Twins are going to wait until March before anything really goes on. 

The Twins are.... going for it?

All of the headlines and projections about the Twins leading into the offseason have been dystopian. The Twins were going to crater the payroll and trade away everyone of any value, and the team was never going to be competitive as long as the Pohlads are around. All of that is still partially true, but it seems to be that things may not be as bleak as they were at first blush.

The Twins have made three moves in the last couple of weeks that perhaps raised an eyebrow here and there. The first was the acquisition of reliever Eric Orze, who will immediately slot in to the middle of the Twins 2026 bullpen. The former Ray will work to get his walk rate under control, but was a relatively inexpensive pick up of a player with a positive WAR last year. Orze has some of the tools that the Twins are happy to have, and have made work in the past. Speaking of the bullpen, they also came to an agreement with Justin Topa, one of the three remnants of last years bullpen, along with Cole Sands and Kody Funderburke. 

One of the first moves Derek Falvey oversaw when he took over the Twins was finding a catcher. The idea was that a good receiver would make the entire staff better, and if they had other tools, that was even better. The Twins sent Payton Eeles to Baltimore for Alex Jackson, who was looking like the third option for the Orioles next year. Parker Hageman breaks down Jackson's value better than I could dream to, but the short version is that Jackson showed tangible development as a hitter last year, and he has the skills (read: arm strength and pop time) to help combat the increased value placed on stolen bases. 

Then, there was the non-tender deadline. Deshawn Keirsey Jr. was let go, but Trevor Larnach was tendered a contract, to the surprise of many. He's a useful player, but not in the field, and he doesn't have such an incredible hit tool that he is indispensable. Still, on many teams, he is a good platoon hitter from the left side of the plate. He wasn't as good last year as he was in 2024, but the regression wasn't as far back as, say, Jose Miranda, who was let go earlier, or Matt Wallner, who still projects as the starting right fielder in 2026. Larnach is going to have an opportunity to plug gaps if Wallner falters, or succeed with another strong left handed bat in the lineup. 

Is there a trend here? Well, yeah. The Twins didn't take the cheapest way out. None of those moves are flashy, but also, none of them indicate a race to the bottom, where payroll is concerned. There is still time for a devastating trade, and to watch every free agent sign with the Dodgers, but the Twins have the benefit of playing in the American League Central. Contention is never that far off. 

The Twins are obviously on a downturn, but they don't believe that it needs to hit rock bottom. A few players, some that even clicked in recent years, like Bailey Ober, Larnach, Royce Lewis and Wallner make this team look a lot different than what many fear. At that point, these little investments in November might look cagey. For now, we can use them to stave off seasonal depression. 

Grasping at straws

 There is a lot riding on the Twins this offseason. While there are other big names in the market, the Twins might have two of the biggest names, in Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez. If you read many national and some local writers, and especially fans of a popular Twins forum, those two are as good as gone, and the Twins are in a race to the bottom. 

They will take Byron Buxton's comments that he might reconsider his stance - long term loyalty to the Twins - if the tear down continues as evidence that the roster purge will continue. Of course, Buxton never said that the purge would continue, and isn't on record as saying that he might consider approving a trade. And it might be possible that Buxton is trying to proffer evidence that is quite the opposite. If he through the Twins were going to continue the tear down, he would be ok moving on. But he isn't, because he doesn't think the Twins are going to continue tearing it down. 

On the other hand, there are words from Derek Falvey, which indicate that the team is looking to add to the roster as it stands right now. That would indicate that there will be no tear down, but he did give the caveat that there hasn't been any direction yet from ownership. A tear down may yet happen, but it isn't guaranteed. Falvey likely understands that the AL Central is always in play with a little bit of effort, and is willing to put it in.

And this tracks with the deadline. Per reports, the Twins asked for Christian Walker in a Carlos Correa trade, and Wilyer Abreu in a Joe Ryan deal. Those are trade asks for a team looking to turn it around quickly. As with anything, it depends entirely on the Pohlads' appetite, which given the last year of headlines, may be a bit larger, if only to save a bit of face. 

Another factor that may loom large is the potential for a lockout after next season. Is it more likely that there is a lock out for 2027, rendering the two years left on deals only one year? Does that mean the Twins should maximize the value on their starting pitchers, rather than hanging on for only one go around? These questions and scenarios are all speculative. An early Twins trade will set the offseason. Hanging onto them will signify something else, something more optimistic.

But it's all speculation. Actions will speak louder than words. There has only been one spot of real news since the season ended. The Twins set their coaching staff for the year, including new manager Derek Shelton, a Gardenhire and Grady Sizemore. Players seem happy, and fans are warming up to the new manager. 

Other than that, nothing has really happened yet.

But what does Derek Shelton's return mean?

 

There is a world in which the hiring of Derek Shelton makes a lot of sense. That world is not necessarily the one occupied by Twins fans, who are disenfranchised by the ownership's decision to stop spending money, and the drastic changes to the roster that the front office took at the deadline. The hiring of Shelton also marks a significant landmark.

He is the first Twins manager to be hired that has had Major League managerial experience in 50 years. The Pohlads have never hired an experienced manager. Most Twins fans don't have any experience with looking at a manager with a track record, and frankly, any that are on the market likely have a few dark patches. As Matthew Leach points out, though, baseball history is littered with managers who had a significantly better time of it with their second go-round. 

Not to mention, this is Shelton's second spin with the Twins. He got the job in Pittsburgh because of his performance as the Twins' bench coach early in the Rocco era. He probably interviewed well with the Twins because what he did here back in 2019 seemed to work. Maybe also because Dereks just get along. 

In short, there are a couple of factors to the opinion on Shelton that I just don't ascribe to. The first that his track record is indicative of future success. We Twins fans just aren't used to having such a public resume. Second is that this is indicative of some sort of cowardice from the front office, or of poor decision making. 

One thing that Derek Falvey is not, is a coward. For a long time, many people wanted the Twins to be more like the Tampa Bay Rays, or have a plan like the Astros did when they tore everything down in order to build things back up to what they've been for the past decade or so. Well, here it is. 

After some initial success, the front office was granted some extra spending money, which they used to good effect and a playoff victory. When that money went away, the Twins needed to change horses mid race. Falvey was aggressive with trades early in his tenure, and made some tactical signings in the offseason. That slowed down as they tried to coast after the payroll reduction following the 2023 season, and struggled because of they couldn't afford any depth.

So here it is. The Rays/Astros method. What both of those organizations understood is something that Terry Ryan and Bill Smith never seemed to be on board with. Not every prospect hits, so when you are building things back, having more chances is a vital strategy to success (and a willingness to trade them when you are in your competitive success, since pennants fly forever, and prospects might not arrive ever). The important thing to that if you have a limited payroll, you are going to have to take chances. 

How much of Terry Ryan's ethos was driven by a risk averse ownership group? How much of it was a product of Terry Ryan's own personality? How much of bringing Derek Shelton back is because he is familiar face, and how much is it because Falvey is taking a chance?

Is the ownership group no longer willing to take chances, or can Falvey still try to run a baseball team?