Good news in a sea of bad news never seems like good news.

It's been an interesting couple of days that seem mildly positive, from a certain point of view. The Twins, who by now you know are a constant disppointment, have signalled that they will not be selling their star players, are looking to add to their roster. Also, there is some inklings that the new partial owners will be named in the next few days, adding a bit of stability in what has been an extremely unstable time. 

We aren't likely looking at the halcyon days of 2019-2023, but this does give the team a little bit of wiggle room, and speaks to the faith that the team not only has in the three players referenced as the core of the roster, but also the young players still developing and ready to emerge. Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Matt Wallner, Luke Keaschall and a slew of high minors arms that are ready to claim spots in the rotation and bullpen. 

There is cautious optimism from many fans and writers about the team. Cautious because they don't expect the payroll to balloon, but now it seems as though the payroll won't crater, either. Basically, the Twins are in the same spot they have been since Carl Pohlad was in charge. In the AL Central that could be a winning hand.

But then, there is La Velle Neal, the venerable Star Tribune columnist who immediately took to the news and said he "isn't buying it" (I'm not linking to Twitter, btw), and further expanded that he expected Joe Ryan to be traded by spring training. To my knowledge, this is the only readable content anywhere from Neal on the subject. That isn't insight, but it does ring true with a lot of long suffering fans, and many that are shorter suffering in the past 6 months or so.

I've thought this since the deadline sell off, and everything Derek Falvey has said since then has echoed my thoughts. They went into the deadline saying they wanted a certain price for Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax, and didn't expect teams to try to match it. Then the Phillies did. The rental players also left, and they got offers they couldn't turn down on an oft injured Brock Stewart and Louis Varland (you don't make that deal unless you REALLY like Kendry Rojas and Alan Roden). Eventually Griffin Jax asked for a trade, and Carlos Correa more or less asked for a deal too. Even then, the Twins tried to get Christian Walker from the Astros as part of a Correa deal. That would have turned the whole deadline narrative around a bit. 

The Twins got a bunch of high minors talent to go along with some high end talent at the lower levels. It was a hopeful reposition for 2026, and now it sounds like Falvey and Jeremy Zoll were able to convince the Pohlads and whomever else is an interested party that this is a group to continue building around. The rotation will be a strength in 2026. The offense is a work in progress. The bullpen has time to develop, because if the other two phases of the game aren't clicking, an elite bullpen is irrelevent. That's where the Twins were at last year.

Now, could a situation like July 31st arrive again this offseason? Maybe. This is the only way I'm agreeing with La Velle, that the Twins could end up trading Joe Ryan: Someone meets their astronomical price tage while at the same time allowing the Twins to remain in contention in 2026. That's a very tall order, but not impossible. It isn't something that would happen over the winter, either. They will need to see something out of multiple arms already in the organization, not just one Joe Ryan replacement. 

Neal reflexive call out of disbelief, however, and how that echoes a fan base that was stung last summer is indicatvie of the reason why I think Falvey was able to convince ownership not to force a further payroll trim. The fans stopped showing up last year, and they are disinclined to trust the front office. More payroll trimming will mean even fewer fans and another low revenue season. This isn't what new investors are looking for. 

The new ownership group and structure is expected to be revealed later this week. I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe Ryan at the press conference. 

The Twins agenda for the Winter meetings

 The baseball winter meetings are around the corner, scheduled to begin in Orlando on Sunday, and given the reports recently coming from Jeff Passan, that Byron Buxton may be willing to waive his no-trade clause for more teams than just the Braves, indications are that the Twins have signaled a further tear down. Maybe this is just Passan reading tea leaves from others, but regardless, it appears as though the Twins are going to be one of the teams to watch, one way or another. 

 But what does the time in Orlando look like? I've got some items for the Twins to check off next week.

- Arrive on December 6th. Get there early to get settled in and ready. Nothing worse than feeling ill prepared because you're tired!

- Attend the draft lottery. The Twins have the second best odds for the #1 overall pick!

- Participate in the Rule 5 Draft. This is one of the staples of the Winter Meetings, and a good way to get someone flying under the radar. 

- Engage in conversations with other organizations and agents

- Wait 3 more months before making any more substantial moves. 

Oh, you thought this was going to be a to do list of things to get done at the Winter Meetings? Yeah, this is the Twins. Even if something crazy is going to happen, the Twins are going to wait until March before anything really goes on. 

The Twins are.... going for it?

All of the headlines and projections about the Twins leading into the offseason have been dystopian. The Twins were going to crater the payroll and trade away everyone of any value, and the team was never going to be competitive as long as the Pohlads are around. All of that is still partially true, but it seems to be that things may not be as bleak as they were at first blush.

The Twins have made three moves in the last couple of weeks that perhaps raised an eyebrow here and there. The first was the acquisition of reliever Eric Orze, who will immediately slot in to the middle of the Twins 2026 bullpen. The former Ray will work to get his walk rate under control, but was a relatively inexpensive pick up of a player with a positive WAR last year. Orze has some of the tools that the Twins are happy to have, and have made work in the past. Speaking of the bullpen, they also came to an agreement with Justin Topa, one of the three remnants of last years bullpen, along with Cole Sands and Kody Funderburke. 

One of the first moves Derek Falvey oversaw when he took over the Twins was finding a catcher. The idea was that a good receiver would make the entire staff better, and if they had other tools, that was even better. The Twins sent Payton Eeles to Baltimore for Alex Jackson, who was looking like the third option for the Orioles next year. Parker Hageman breaks down Jackson's value better than I could dream to, but the short version is that Jackson showed tangible development as a hitter last year, and he has the skills (read: arm strength and pop time) to help combat the increased value placed on stolen bases. 

Then, there was the non-tender deadline. Deshawn Keirsey Jr. was let go, but Trevor Larnach was tendered a contract, to the surprise of many. He's a useful player, but not in the field, and he doesn't have such an incredible hit tool that he is indispensable. Still, on many teams, he is a good platoon hitter from the left side of the plate. He wasn't as good last year as he was in 2024, but the regression wasn't as far back as, say, Jose Miranda, who was let go earlier, or Matt Wallner, who still projects as the starting right fielder in 2026. Larnach is going to have an opportunity to plug gaps if Wallner falters, or succeed with another strong left handed bat in the lineup. 

Is there a trend here? Well, yeah. The Twins didn't take the cheapest way out. None of those moves are flashy, but also, none of them indicate a race to the bottom, where payroll is concerned. There is still time for a devastating trade, and to watch every free agent sign with the Dodgers, but the Twins have the benefit of playing in the American League Central. Contention is never that far off. 

The Twins are obviously on a downturn, but they don't believe that it needs to hit rock bottom. A few players, some that even clicked in recent years, like Bailey Ober, Larnach, Royce Lewis and Wallner make this team look a lot different than what many fear. At that point, these little investments in November might look cagey. For now, we can use them to stave off seasonal depression. 

Grasping at straws

 There is a lot riding on the Twins this offseason. While there are other big names in the market, the Twins might have two of the biggest names, in Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez. If you read many national and some local writers, and especially fans of a popular Twins forum, those two are as good as gone, and the Twins are in a race to the bottom. 

They will take Byron Buxton's comments that he might reconsider his stance - long term loyalty to the Twins - if the tear down continues as evidence that the roster purge will continue. Of course, Buxton never said that the purge would continue, and isn't on record as saying that he might consider approving a trade. And it might be possible that Buxton is trying to proffer evidence that is quite the opposite. If he through the Twins were going to continue the tear down, he would be ok moving on. But he isn't, because he doesn't think the Twins are going to continue tearing it down. 

On the other hand, there are words from Derek Falvey, which indicate that the team is looking to add to the roster as it stands right now. That would indicate that there will be no tear down, but he did give the caveat that there hasn't been any direction yet from ownership. A tear down may yet happen, but it isn't guaranteed. Falvey likely understands that the AL Central is always in play with a little bit of effort, and is willing to put it in.

And this tracks with the deadline. Per reports, the Twins asked for Christian Walker in a Carlos Correa trade, and Wilyer Abreu in a Joe Ryan deal. Those are trade asks for a team looking to turn it around quickly. As with anything, it depends entirely on the Pohlads' appetite, which given the last year of headlines, may be a bit larger, if only to save a bit of face. 

Another factor that may loom large is the potential for a lockout after next season. Is it more likely that there is a lock out for 2027, rendering the two years left on deals only one year? Does that mean the Twins should maximize the value on their starting pitchers, rather than hanging on for only one go around? These questions and scenarios are all speculative. An early Twins trade will set the offseason. Hanging onto them will signify something else, something more optimistic.

But it's all speculation. Actions will speak louder than words. There has only been one spot of real news since the season ended. The Twins set their coaching staff for the year, including new manager Derek Shelton, a Gardenhire and Grady Sizemore. Players seem happy, and fans are warming up to the new manager. 

Other than that, nothing has really happened yet.

But what does Derek Shelton's return mean?

 

There is a world in which the hiring of Derek Shelton makes a lot of sense. That world is not necessarily the one occupied by Twins fans, who are disenfranchised by the ownership's decision to stop spending money, and the drastic changes to the roster that the front office took at the deadline. The hiring of Shelton also marks a significant landmark.

He is the first Twins manager to be hired that has had Major League managerial experience in 50 years. The Pohlads have never hired an experienced manager. Most Twins fans don't have any experience with looking at a manager with a track record, and frankly, any that are on the market likely have a few dark patches. As Matthew Leach points out, though, baseball history is littered with managers who had a significantly better time of it with their second go-round. 

Not to mention, this is Shelton's second spin with the Twins. He got the job in Pittsburgh because of his performance as the Twins' bench coach early in the Rocco era. He probably interviewed well with the Twins because what he did here back in 2019 seemed to work. Maybe also because Dereks just get along. 

In short, there are a couple of factors to the opinion on Shelton that I just don't ascribe to. The first that his track record is indicative of future success. We Twins fans just aren't used to having such a public resume. Second is that this is indicative of some sort of cowardice from the front office, or of poor decision making. 

One thing that Derek Falvey is not, is a coward. For a long time, many people wanted the Twins to be more like the Tampa Bay Rays, or have a plan like the Astros did when they tore everything down in order to build things back up to what they've been for the past decade or so. Well, here it is. 

After some initial success, the front office was granted some extra spending money, which they used to good effect and a playoff victory. When that money went away, the Twins needed to change horses mid race. Falvey was aggressive with trades early in his tenure, and made some tactical signings in the offseason. That slowed down as they tried to coast after the payroll reduction following the 2023 season, and struggled because of they couldn't afford any depth.

So here it is. The Rays/Astros method. What both of those organizations understood is something that Terry Ryan and Bill Smith never seemed to be on board with. Not every prospect hits, so when you are building things back, having more chances is a vital strategy to success (and a willingness to trade them when you are in your competitive success, since pennants fly forever, and prospects might not arrive ever). The important thing to that if you have a limited payroll, you are going to have to take chances. 

How much of Terry Ryan's ethos was driven by a risk averse ownership group? How much of it was a product of Terry Ryan's own personality? How much of bringing Derek Shelton back is because he is familiar face, and how much is it because Falvey is taking a chance?

Is the ownership group no longer willing to take chances, or can Falvey still try to run a baseball team? 

He sure didn't learn that here

 

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One of the big stories this post season has been Seattle's arrival, and the clutch hitting of Jorge Polanco. Yeah, that Jorge Polanco. 

Polanco had, if anything, a reputation for steadiness in Minnesota. The Twins won a playoff series with Polanco on the roster, and he was an All Star in 2019, but he didn't really stand out as a clutch guy. Now, in the blink of an eye, he is a postseason assassin. He had the game winning hit in the final game of their series with the Tigers, and now, he has started with a .444 average, a home run an 5 runs batted in (matching his total in his Twins career) in a couple of games. 

Jorge Polanco had a long and devoted career as a Minnesota Twin, but it seems pretty likely that when most baseball fans look back at Polanco's career when all is said and done, people are going to think of his exploits as a Mariner. 

Daniel Jones and his fortress

This sure has been a down stretch at the Rhino and Compass. The Twins are bad, and posts have been non stop about how bad the Twins are. So let's talk about the Colts, who have been one of the hits of the 2025 NFL season, and Daniel Jones is having his career resurgence in Indianapolis rather than with Kevin O'Connell. How the heck did that happen?

In this area, I have no choice but to agree with Saquan Barkley. Last summer, he told Diana Rossini "You give him an offensive line, and I’m telling you, he’s a top quarterback. ... He has it.” A good offensive line can give a young quarterback more time to develop and figure it out, and allows a mediocre quarterback to be good, and a good one to be great. When the Rams went on their run with Kurt Warner, it was after drafting Orlando Pace first overall, not a QB or a weapon.

The Vikings are a perfect example of this. They've given special attention to their offensive line, and as a result, have been able to develop Kirk Cousins into something better than he otherwise would have been, and managed with Sam Darnold after that. The Colts have bounced from quarterback to quarterback in the last several years as well, with varying success. They weren't ever really bad but never particularly good, either. Philip Rivers was still effective, but Matt Ryan was over the hill.

They used draft picks to develop an offensive line that is now one of the better ones in the league, supporting Daniel Jones as he turns himself into an Indianapolis legend. And that line, the incredible part of all of it is that two long term starters left the team this offseason (to go to Minnesota of all places) which means that there is an argument that it could have been even better last year, and certainly two years prior when Gardner Minshew went to the Pro Bowl. That Anthony Richardson struggled so mightily with a line that is protecting Jones' renaissance is probably a factor in their being zero trade interest in the former #4 overall pick.

In retrospect, drafting Richardson was a colossal misstep. At the position the Colts were, it made sense to draft a QB, however Richardson wasn't ready for the NFL, and certainly wasn't ready to be a high first rounder. Given the choice, I think Indy would have rather taken Deon Witherspoon, the corner the Steelers grabbed a pick later. They still would have scuffled to an about .500 record, and would have needed a QB again now. 

I could see Richardson having a career like Geno Smith, where he takes a back seat for several years and reemerges somewhere in 7 years, taking all that time to learn the position, all while keeping his body healthy. Richardson famously didn't start playing football until late in his high school career, and bviously needed time to develop his understanding of the game, even if he had raw physical ability.

And I think Richardson knew this too. He's not arrogant, and has taken this benching in stride, as a learning opportunity. That's such a rare quality in today's world, and the sign of a future leader. 

A future leader. It's Daniel Jones' time now.