Business is hard.

 Last week, I noted that there was probably one more shoe to drop. Unfortunately, that shoe was actually rushing towards us to kick Twins fans collectively right in the gut. First, Pablo Lopez went down with a UCL injury, because of course he did, but now Joe Ryan is also getting checked out for a back issue that will probably be serious because: Curse. 

There is also something else going on here, and it's something that so many Twins fans have been saying for such a long time: The Pohlads. 

It's not entirely what you think, though. The ongoing conversation is that Pohlads are miserly, unwilling to pay the necessary salaries to field a competitive baseball team and generally hostile to the Twins. I am hear to offer a different opinion. The Pohlads don't understand baseball and are bad at the business therein. 

Just a couple highlights before our recent circumstances. The Twins signed the last small (relative) TV deal before the Dodgers signed a huge deal, and other teams had a blueprint for making money from local TV. The Twins were at least able to secure a new stadium, and had a good season before all of their stars got injured, and took very few actions to replenish the roster and were bad for most of the 2010s. Then, again when TV deals were coming due and the team ramped up to position themselves as an attractive piece of media, only to see the entire regional sports carrier market collapse. Instead of then pivoting, they throttled their payroll and destroyed fan loyalty, which was the only reliable source of income they could count on.

Now, obviously bad luck played a role in those various disasters, but it is important to acknowledge that bad decisions led the team to be vulnerable when there were headwinds. Their TV situation over the past 25 years has been the number one overarching factor in keeping the Twins as a small market team, as the Pohlads saw the organization as a traditional business, rather than the investment smarter owners see it as. Payroll goes up only as profits due, so with a fixed television income below what other markets were offering, the Twins were always going to be handicapped. 

Now, according to the comments that Tom Pohlad has made (and maybe this is thanks to the new investors in the organization), he seems to appreciate that the way to drive up interest is by winning, and that winning takes some monetary investment. He also, quite rightly, sees the Twins as a viable contender in the AL Central. If your team has a pulse, you are a contender in the AL Central. I'm on board there too. 

Now here's the problem. A fundamental difference in the world of business and the world of sports is that your operational "year" starts at the trade deadline, with an opportunity to reset at the end of the season. January 1st is just a holiday, and not an opportunity to make changes to your front office or direction of the organization. If they wanted to reevaluate at the beginning of the offseason, that would have been fine, they could have been aggressive and rounded out the current roster. They would have been justified in continuing the tear down and creating a super-farm. 

But they didn't. The business minded Pohlads got their new investors, and after the new year shook the organization up. Unfortunately, this is like Target firing the store manager during Christmas season. The desire to be more aggressive came too late to do anything. The Twins held the Falvey led organization from continuing their aggressive reset for the future. Now, Lopez and maybe Ryan will not be able to provide any return for the Twins, either on the field or as a trade option. This wouldn't have been a problem if the Pohlads knew what they were doing, and just made their decision a couple of months earlier.

But they don't. Ownership incompetence is its own curse. 

One more shoe to drop

 It seems as though everyone is predicting the Twins to make one more move soon. There isn't much left on the free agency market, though I could foresee the team adding Michael Kopech (and Liam Hendriks, apparently) on a deal to work out of the back of their bullpen. More likely, the Twins are going to shake things up with a trade. How big a trade remains to be seen. I, for one, think there is a big trade coming, and I don't think it is one that many people see coming. 

There is no shortage of people that are looking at the Twins roster, realizing that there are extra left handed corner outfielders, and a dearth of qualified bullpen arms. Both of those situations are likely to be addressed in whatever deal comes down in the next couple of weeks. 

The big question early in the offseason surrounded outfielder Trevor Larnach. Why was he tendered a contract for this cash strapped organization, especially on a team with no shortage of similarly skilled players? Naturally, Larnach is the name that most fans expect to be dealt.

Hear me out, though. If people outside the front office questioned whether Larnach was even worth being tendered a contract, but the Twins chose to tender him anyway, that suggests they value him more highly than the market likely does. If that’s the case, it seems unlikely another team would suddenly step in and value Larnach more than Minnesota does. Tendering him despite those doubts doesn’t exactly position the Twins to maximize a return on investment in a trade. For that reason, Larnach probably isn’t as firmly on the trade block as some assume.

If the team does make a deal, they will need to find an asset that another team will value, that the Twins would be able to backfill internally. With Larnach, he is one year of depth until Walker Jenkins joins the team full time, which also allows the team to move on from a different player with more years of control, potentially garner a better return package. 

That leaves three prominent possibilities: Matt Wallner, Alan Roden and Austin Martin. Wallner may command the greatest return, but the Twins may be loathe to trade away another native Minnesotan after the Louis Varland debacle, and the team labored with a poor on base percentage last year, making Austin Martin more valuable.

The Twins have a more significant move still awaiting us this spring. Don't be surprised if it' Alan Roden on the move again.

What in the actual f***

 As a society generally, and in Minnesota specifically, we have developed this sort of, I don't know if it's resilience, but perhaps maybe it is persistence? We keep getting our kids to the bus stop in the morning, going to work, letting the dog out, all that stuff, but now we do it with this thought noodling around in the back of our mind: "What in the actual fuck is going on right now? 

In that regard, the Twins are a microcosm of Minnesota. A lower consequence version, certainly, and also something that makes it a bit harder to view them as the escape I usually want them to be. The parallels are too on the nose. Right now, the main headline is about stories to watch as Spring Training gets underway. Of course, the first couple of spots are dedicated to the rotation and the bullpen, and there is later a discussion about the prospects and the corner outfielders. Generic Spring Training stuff. 

And then the next article notes that the president of the team, who was hired to be GM 9 years ago, abruptly left the team with 2 weeks left until Spring Training starts. What in the actual fuck is going on right now? 

One of the 5 things that we are watching is whether or not the Twins will be making a move in the final weeks of the offseason, even as the players are in camp for Spring Training. the Twins have a history of doing just that, after all. "But the old guy is gone!" you and I shriek into the void. How does past history have anything to do with right now, now that everything has changed?

And something has definitely changed, to the best of our outside knowledge. Based on comments from Tom Pohlad, Derek Falvey and some writers more in touch with the organization, it appears as though Falvey and Pohlad had different visions for what the Twins would be in the near future, and how to run the organization. Part of the problem was the Falvey was in charge of the baseball AND the business, and may have been slightly overmatched.

On the baseball side, he was confronted with a mandated payroll reduction for two consecutive years, which cratered fan interest, which obliterated the business side of the operation. However, confronted with those realities, Falvey and the organization pivoted to the best way to be competitive on a budget: Prospects. I don't believe Falvey nor other members of the organization thought that the team last year was in need of a tear down, but they also saw it as the most realistic way to achieve long term success. Agree or not, it was a plan.

Then, there was a shuffle at the top, and Tom Pohlad, a business minded member of the Pohlad family, took over. With new investors, and a struggling bottom line, he wanted to show that the team would be profitable, and he wanted that right now. 

Rightfully, he saw that the path to success was through victory. Incorrectly, he has continued to insist that we shouldn't fixate on the payroll. Unfortunately, that seems to be because there just aren't that many people left to sign. Maybe Falvey was pushed out the door because he wasn't active enough in free agency, because the Twins have apparently been interested in Freddy Peralta and Framber Valdez since Falvey was escorted out the door. 

Maybe Falvey wanted out because those expectations, of taking a big swing (while keeping salary modest) and winning right away is such an abrupt change from what they had geared up for. Either way, there was a difference in strategy. Falvey wants long term team success. Pohlad wants immediate success. It was far too deep into the offseason to make the change, however, and now the Twins are an even greater mess than they were before. 

The top job in this cycle

 There were a whopping 10 NFL head coaching vacancies this year, and while I don't want to say too much (the Raiders and Cardinals are still looking and I have my fingers crossed!) I do think it is interesting looking at who ended up where. John Harbaugh went to New York, Kevin Stefanski went to Atlanta, and perhaps most curiously, at least in my book, Robert Saleh left San Francisco to go to the Titans. 

I'd heard more than one person, certainly someone more in tune with football than me, say that the Titans' job was the top opening out there. The logic made sense. They had last year's number 1 pick Cam Ward ready to make a jump next season, there were limited payroll obligations, especially as their quarterback is not on a typical "quarterback" salary, and the organization, frankly, doesn't have the long term dysfunction some of the other openings have had.

If the Titans were the best landing spot, why didn't the two top names on the market end up there? Each coach had a reason, and the Titans liked did as well. Harbaugh was the biggest name out there after leaving the Baltimore Ravens after a multi-decade, multi-Super Bowl career. After that success, and paying those dues, Harbaugh is significantly more likely to be capable of handling the bright lights of New York. The Giants are similar to Tennessee in that they have a young, talented quarterback to mold, but they are different in that they are not in Nashville. 

Stefanski likely had a different consideration. He came initially from Minnesota and went to the Browns, where he did the almost unthinkable - brought Cleveland to the postseason. Stefanski, as I noted, started in Minnesota, and now goes to the Falcons, where Kurt Cousins remains on the payroll. Maybe Cousins will be jettisoned this offseason, but also, maybe not. Cousins and Stefanski would start with a baseline of understanding that could get the ball rolling before Michael Penix takes the role back over. 

For their part, the Titans have ever only really had success when they have focused on rounding out their defense. Jeff Fisher brought them to the Super Bowl. Mike Vrabel made them relevant with Ryan Tannehill leading the way. Stefanski has an offensive background, while Harbaugh, as noted, was not likely interested in starting at ground level in Nashville. Robert Saleh is renowned for his expertise on the defensive side of the ball. Saleh fits the mold of "good Tennessee Titans head coach."

Saleh also has "head coach" on his prior resume. It speaks to his abilities as a defensive coordinator that after coaching the Jets, he was able to secure another head coaching role. It's been proven time and again that the second run for head coaches in all sports are better in their second spot. Saleh has experience leading an entire roster, and at building out talented defenses, even if those defenses are fraught with injuries, as the one in San Francisco was.

The Titans did have the top job on the market this cycle, and they got exactly the coach they wanted. 

Are the White Sox close?

 If you have been like me and needed to bury your head in the sand for just a couple of goddamned minutes, you have turned back to the Twins offseason. It's not uplifting, but it's also not life or death. One thing that hasn't changed in these miserable times in Minneapolis is that online Twins Territory is very down on their chances. A refrain I've heard is "forget trying to win the division, they need to worry about staying ahead of the White Sox".

I'm not sure how serious it was when it was said, but frankly, it's a little bit ludicrous. The White Sox aren't necessarily the bottom feeders they were two years ago, but in 2026, they still aren't very good. Importantly, they don't look anywhere near the Twins.

The White Sox do have some players to build around, certainly. Colson Montgomery and Kyle Teel stand out as the best positional carryovers, with Seth Smith likely to start the season as their top starter. I would be remiss if I didn't also note their splash signing of Japanese slugger Muneteka Murakami. 

Byron Buxton was worth more wins by himself than Montgomery and Teel combined. Neither played a full season, but even prorated, well, the numbers look worse for Buxton. And speaking of prorated, Luke Keaschall and Austin Martin were better than Teel by a WAR metric. Seth Smith would start perhaps third or 4th in the Twins rotation, and given, again, the prorated WAR, might end up as the 6th man in the rotation. The only starter he was easily better than was Bailey Ober, and Ober has a good history.

Yes, the Twins bullpen isn't very good. But if the metric we are working off is "are the White Sox any better," then you can say, sure, the White Sox have Grant Taylor, who is better than anyone the Twins have to offer, but otherwise, they are similar groups. The Twins should see fewer innings out of their pen, though, which should go a long way.

Both teams expect to see help from their prospect pool. The Twins happened to have the 2nd rated farm in baseball mid-season last year, while the White Sox sat at 17th. There is another ranking coming out soon, and the Twins will move down because Keaschall graduated off the list. Next year, top ten prospect Walker Jenkins will be off the list too, with Emmanuel Rodriguez potentially following him. 

I'm not comparing the Twins to the top of the division. I am saying they are significantly better than the White Sox. 

The end of Max Kepler

 Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco helped form the backbone of the Minnesota Twins for half a decade, and ere at the heart of the organization for longer than that. They were signed on international deals at about the same time, and moved through the minor leagues together, even living together in many stops. Now, with recent news of Kepler getting suspended for PEDs, well, they share that as well. 

The similarities don't continue. Polanco had his suspension earlier in his career, while still a member of the Twins. This allowed him to build back his reputation, both on and off the field. After playing the postseason hero on a couple of occasions in Seattle, he recently earned a 2 year, $40m contract with the Mets. He's now three contracts removed from his PED suspension, and it wouldn't be top of mind for anyone any more, until his old roommate was pegged for a violation as well.

Max Kepler took a one year deal with the Phillies last year, his first away from the Twins. He was vocal about a lack of playing time, thought that likely had a lot to do with it being his worst season as an MLB player. The Phillies acquired the player who started as the Twins' 4th outfielder, Harrison Bader, and Bader quickly eclipsed Kepler.

Kepler used to provide surplus value as a fielder, but that wasn't the case last year, and he's going to be 33 by the time he reaches the field next. His inconsistent bat has never justified a regular spot as a corner outfielder. If he signs now, he won't play until the end of the year. Will any contender think the Kepler will offer an upgrade as a reinforcement? One that won't be necessary  in the postseason?

It's going to be tough to find a contract for Kepler, especially one that he thinks he deserves. Kepler has always come off as a bit self absorbed (complaint about his time with the Phillies don't help) and if that read is accurate, he is going to have to swallow that pride to even have a chance in Major League Baseball again. The truth is, the combination of a bad season before a PED suspension ahead of his age 33 season means time is probably running out for him.

Baseball in tragedy.

 It's just a heavy time in the Twin Cities. The results of yesterday's death of Renee Good in south Minneapolis is a tragedy for any right thinking human being, regardless of where you assign culpability, as she was a mother who was killed on what is now an international stage. Tensions were already high, and instead of mourning and introspection that we often get after a tragedy, there has been retrenchment and finger pointing. Tension has only ratcheted up, and there is no backing down. Federal agents shot Ms. Good, and federal agents shot two people in Portland just a day later. 

This is in the wake of American military action in Venezuela, and threatened ongoing action elsewhere, raising anxiety for a lot of people, at home and abroad. Making it worse is the completely disparate opinion on literally every component of the matter. Yes, right minded people mourn for the children who lost for their mother, but that is where agreement ends. Beyond that, instead of trying to find a way forward, there is animosity between the state and federal government, the left and right on the political spectrum, and among the left and among the right. Everyone is yelling. 

We all just need a fucking break. 

I am grateful for the baseball offseason this time of year, because it allows for the break. I hope everyone is able to remove themselves from the constant stream of negative emotion in whatever means that is for you, if for a moment. I'm sorry if you were hoping that this would be an escape for you, but unfortunately like so many other writers and Minnesotans, writing is therapeutic. 

If you poke around the Twins blogosphere, you'll be struck by how negative it is. It does seem pretty silly, especially today, to be so hung up on bullpen construction in the wake of everything going on, but it is an escape. But the real world implications of what is going on in the world will come up, if not now, then in the season. If nothing else, I've thought about them.

For example, what is the reputation that Minneapolis has, and where does it stand in the mind of players and staff that may ultimately come to Minnesota? Will Pablo Day be different, when Target Field is full of Venezuelan flags and representatives, honoring the beloved Venezuelan starting pitcher? 

Today was the day for arbitration filing. The Twins only have one player that was unable to come to terms with the team - Joe Ryan. They filed $400,000 apart, which is a little more than half of the major league minimum. It's easy to look askance at the Pohlads and their cheap reputation, but that total isn't really that far off from most of the players that couldn't come to terms with their teams (except for Tarik Skubal, who was $13m higher than what the Tigers suggested).

It's a reminder that ownership, even of the good teams, is in it to make money, with less concern for their employees or fans individual enjoyment than we might hope. The owners are removed from the game, and from the plight of the people they are supposed to represent. We can talk about how much money players make, but they are still the little man, the employees of a larger, self interested organization.

Most importantly, they will be the ones wearing the jersey. the one's representing Minnesota in front of all of us and whatever media is observing it. This isn't a rallying cry for the Twins. It's a rallying cry for Minnesota. It's good to have something that brings us together, and to be represented by something other than violence and tragedy. Even if it's just a break. Take care, everyone.