The vibes are bad

 I've stated so many times to anyone who will listen that managers barely manager. Player development comes mostly from coaching, and in game strategy is rarely as impactful as we fans like to make it out to be. Managers, though, often reflect the vibes of the team. My biggest criticism of Ron Gardenhire was the way the team played with both hands around their throats in the postseason. Now for the past two seasons with Rocco Baldelli in charge, the vibes were all bad.

The inability to compete in the face of bad news (Joe Ryan's injury) in 2024 was appalling. The fact that year over year the Twins fall flat on their face in clutch situations, such as late in games or with runners in scoring position is inexplicable. There should be rises and falls in those numbers, and they should at least approximate your numbers in other situations. The nail in the coffin was the team performance coming out of the break in 2025. They were in must win series and couldn't beat the Rockies and Nationals. Yuck.

I have no problems with Rocco Baldelli, and I think he will be back on his feet quickly, but it was time to shake up the coaching staff. This can all be true, and it can also be just as true that the rot goes further up than that. I'm not talking Jeremy Zoll or even Derek Falvey, of course. This is an issue with ownership. No secret there, right?

The Star Tribune soft pedaled the Pohlads in a recent article, painting them as baseball diehards who are just as passionate about the team as we are, and wanted to keep the team, but that darn debt made it hard to hang on to the team. Since they got a cash infusion, they were able to keep the team, and look out, here comes some investment! In the context of that article, Baldelli losing his job makes more sense. The real purpose of the article, however, was this paragraph that heretofore unremarkable Pohlad Tom was quoted in.

Tom Pohlad pointed to what he said is an unfavorable economic model for small- and middle-market MLB teams like the Twins. In such markets, revenues “don’t necessarily support” amenities like a first-class ballpark at Target Field or consistently putting a high-performing team together.

Ah yes. That old chestnut. The Twin Cities metro is home to over 4 million people, which makes it larger than San Diego, Cleveland, Milwaukee and Cincinnati (the last one by a wide margin!) and all of those teams are in the playoffs. Going into the offseason the Twins have less money locked into place than the Padres and Brewers, as well as the Rockies, Cardinals, Royals and Pirates. That's some fuzzy math, but it shows who the Twins are punching with, generally. 

The CBA is coming up at the end of next year, and the Pohlads have proven time and again that they are willing to play the victim in negotiations with players. The Pohlads are in worse shape than other organizations with otherwise similar traits in part because of some misfortune on the TV side, but also a fundamental inability to run a baseball team like owners that actually like baseball. Their situation makes them a poster child for the owners' cause at the next bargaining table. 

A lot of hot takes I have seen after Baldelli's dismissal have related to Falvey's record. Sure, some of the teams listed above have greater success with similar progress, but no other team has had a successful team suddenly mandated to cut 30 million dollars in payroll, shortly after their 20 year peak. I'm happy to reevaluate Falvey if this rebuild doesn't go well, but I'm also not going to forget that whatever happens to this woebegone organization, the real villains are the owners. 

The vibes are never going to be great if you have to fight uphill against your own employers.

Softening the blow

The Twins have stared into a similar abyss in the past. In the early 90s, not long after the 1991 World Series, the team started disassembling piecemeal. It didn't help that the 1994 strike showed up and drove Shane Mack to Japan and Kent Hrbek out of baseball. Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson were never the same pitcher after 1991 (or before, really) and by 1995, the Twins had Chuck Knoblauch and memories. 

From 2010 to 2012, the Twins fortunes were also turned on their head, thanks to a couple of, well, head injuries. The run of contention ended when Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau sustained long term concussion related injuries. Whatever reload the Twins might have thought they were prepared for fell through with their two stars injured, and their supporting cast then leaving in free agency. 

Terry Ryan was many things, but he was not good at rebuilding quickly. The late 90s and the 2010s were dark, dark times. The Twins of 2024 and 2025 will now symbolize the end of an era. This was ushered in by tightening purse strings rather than injuries to major cogs of the team, though there were certainly injuries. Those differences weren't career enders, and nobody got away for nothing. Say what you will about Derek Falvey, but this time, the Twins saw the end of the line coming, and made sure to restock the minor league system.

For so long, I've heard many fans wish the Twins were more like the Rays. Well, you got your wish. The Twins have sold their talent at maximum value, trying to restock the talent on their team with young players. It's painful, but if the Twins are going to be a small payroll team now, they are going to have to be trading good players with team control to patch holes with young talent. 

Or maybe, the Twins will be sold, and payroll will increase. Whatever the case may be, the Twins need internal talent in order to form the foundation of the next contending group of Twins. The deadline hurt, and the end of the season has sucked, but the bounceback shouldn't take as long as other Twins downturns. 

With that hope, though, there must be an acknowledgement that this version of the Twins doesn't work. The strength of a contending team cannot be the bullpen. The Twins have tried to turn that into future rotation and lineup strength, on top of the existing prospect. One advantage of the bad teams of yore was their ability to allow prospects to develop. It's probably too late for Ryan Jeffers or Trevor Larnach to be a part of the next good Twins team. The same can't be said about Austin Martin or Brooks Lee.

The Twins were able to keep plugging Torii Hunter and Michael Cuddyer in to some bad lineups until it started to click for them. Royce Lewis isn't yet through his first full healthy season, like Martin and Lee. Martin seems to be figuring it out. Lewis or Lee could. So could Matt Wallner. And that's to say nothing of Walker Jenkins or Kaelen Culpepper, a couple of helium prospects in the systm.

The Twins are bad right now, and will probably struggle. There might be a work stoppage for 2027, but this is a team that the front office likely expects to be strong contenders within 3 years. Enjoy the ride on the way back up.

Making the most of it.

It's been a while since the Twins have been able to truly enjoy a season in which many of the players were auditioning for the next season. Generally, when things aren't going particularly well, that means not many of those auditions are going well either. Such is the case with the Twins, though not all of them are going poorly. There are a few players who have likely played themselves into a real role in 2026. 

I'm not talking about guys like Byron Buxton, who is obviously the focus of the team, or Luke Keaschall. the only spark the team seams to have had when he's healthy. I'm talking about players who were not necessarily on the radar at all, or at least emerged as a candidate for a greater role than they were expected to have on July 31st. 

In particular, the two top names I am thinking of make the trade with the Blue Jays a few seasons ago have been standing out the brightest. Now that the stadium is empty, Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson are really showing up. 

Austin Martin, in particular, has been a welcome surprise. Martin didn't see Target Field until after the deadline, as he was in St. Paul up until that point. For the Saints, he was hitting over .300, and now with the Twins, he is hitting .296. For having almost no power, his OPS is nearly .800 in his time with the Twins, and as filling the role of utility player has accumulated .9 win above replacement. His walk rate and strike out rate are improved over his freshman campaign, and it looks like we are finding out the type of player he is going to be.

Essentially, Marin is being asked to replace Willi Castro. For comparison, Martin's WAR production exceeds Castro's for the full season (thanks to Castro being trash with the Cubs) but Martin has produced .9 wins in a month and a half against Castro's 1.1 in 3 months. Martin offers the positional flexibility Castro does, along with being a regular table setter for a team in dire need of one. 

In the month of September, following a stint on the IL for a stomach ailment, Simeon Woods Richardson has been the anchor of the Twins rotation. Heck, he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Certainly, SWR has shown flashes before, but also some valleys (like August, while fighting the initial stages of his tummy bug) but he has the tuff to strike out 11 per 9, as he has done this month.

Woods-Richardson has proven to be effective when he is not giving up the long ball, which he hasn't been this month. This is a similar course to the one Brad Radke started his career with, though Radke didn't strikeout as many batters, which meant he worked deeper into games. But for now, a healthy Simeon Woods Richardson is a nice asset. 

Taj Bradley, Cole Sands and Kody Clemens have also shown flashes of brilliance to go along with the established stars and these recently emergent players. The cupboard is not bare. The Twins will, as always, hinge on their health and depth. If nothing else, at least Austin Martin can play a few different positions. 

Confidence!

 I referee high school basketball during the winter, and it's generally not as bad as you might think, from a verbal abuse standpoint. One of my favorite parts of the game is listening to coaches talk to their players, hearing the relationships and development, and the personalities that go into generating a well rounded player and person. 

I was at a game between a couple of smaller charter schools that weren't especially talented, but very spirited. Their coach was very encouraging, and very chatty with his players, and came to their defense often. One play that sticks out in my mind was early in the shot clock, their point guard launched what would have been a logo three pointer, had the court had a logo. Based on everything I had seen to this point, the shot was ill-advised. 

The coach, instead of giving a tortured "NO!" where the average coach would, upon seeing the shot, just shouted "CONFIDENCE!"  

I don't remember if the basket went in, honestly, but the proclamation has always lived in my brain, and whenever I see or hear the word, that is how it is uttered in my brain. What does that have to do with anything?

Confidence is the reason why the Twins are running out journeymen relievers and bench players. Despite what prospect watchers might have you believe, there isn't really a prospect banging down the door, demanding a call up. The top hitting prospect still with the Saints is Emmannual Rodriguez, whose OPS hasn't been able to surpass that of Mickey Gasper or Johnny Pareda in St. Paul. The numbers are good, but why burn through confidence in meaningless games, especially if the developmental profile might not quite be there yet. 

The pitchers people want to see are almost all starters. I think in this case, the Twins just want to keep pitchers stretched out, rather than having them come up and pitch a few innings of relief. There is a good chance the Twins will need more young starter next year. 

Might as well look ahead to the future, I guess.

Well, it's September now. Suffice to say, the baseball season hasn't quite gone as Minnesota fans would have hoped. It's been a trend since the halcyon days of 2023. We don't deserve hope or nice things, and it's all gone south. It's not all the Pohlads, either. There has been a lack of development among offensive prospects and unfortunate injuries, with the most impactful usually afflicting the pitching staff. 

Where do the Twins go from here? I am personally of the opinion that the pitching on this team, if the starters can stay healthy, will be a strength for the next couple of years. The Twins haven't been able to lead their rotation with someone as good and cost controlled ass Joe Ryan since Johan Santana. They haven't had two at the top like Lopez and Ryan since Santana and Radke. The Twins have been in the pitching wilderness for a very long time.

But alas, the offense stinks, and owners still want a salary cap, which means the 2027 season is in a dire situation. The AL Central is always a winnable proposition, but with the Tigers and Royals ascendant, even if the Twins have the arms, the bats aren't likely to come around soon enough. If you are planning for 2026, you might as well also look ahead to 2027, and the concern that it may not even happen.

Hey, sidebar for a minute. The funny thing to me is that the Pohlads are absolutely going to push among the hardest for a salary cap, but the only way it would ever get done is if the Major League cap ends up around the luxury cap line. Cap or no cap, the Twins aren't going to come close to spending that much, so who cares?

Back on track.

If you are thinking about next year, with a real belief that 2027 isn't going to happen, then the window to make a decision on Ryan and Lopez is fast approaching. Either go for it in 2026, or punt. The Pohlads are still interested in selling the team, by the sounds of it, which probably means the Twins are punting. 

It seems like the Red Sox are going to be the most interested in Joe Ryan, as they have been all along. The Twins have a lot of prospects waiting to break through, so I think the Twins will be inclined to add Major League talent in any trades. Given the Twins' difficulty in adding players that can actually hit, I imagine the Twins would build a trade around a position player. I think Wilyer Abreu is probably a major component of a likely return for Ryan, primarily because he has more time under team control than Jarren Duran.

The return Lopez would commend is going to be dampened by having a larger contract, as well as the injuries that have followed him the past couple of years. I think the Twins may be more inclined to find a trade partner willing to offer prospects in a Pablo Lopez deal. Baltimore still has a young core, and should be looking to return to contention, but this time with veteran leadership in the bullpen. Organizing a deal around Colby Mayo would give the Twins an option at first base, which has somehow become a nettlesome issue over the years. 

Trevor Larnach is probably pushed out in this scenario. He's on the Joe Ryan/Pablo Lopez timeline as well, though, so it's probably for the best for all parties involved if he is perhaps included with one of the other deals. Bailey Ober is stuck in the middle as well, but may benefit from a change in scenery. Ryan Jeffers gets to play out his contract, as the Twins value veteran catchers, and the other options out there are anemic.

The Twins wouldn't likely be much good next year, but they would be full of young players trying to prove themselves, looking to get better. The bounceback into contention would be shorter than it would be with the attrition and hope model exercised by past Twins teams on the downslide. A guy can be optimistic.

Here is what the starting rotation would look like.
Simeon Woods-Richardson
Zebby Matthews
David Festa
Taj Bradley
Mick Abel

The bullpen would carry some assorted veteran free agents and starting pitching prospects that aren't working out, as well as Cole Sands, Kody Funderburk and Justin Topa.

The lineup would include
C Ryan Jeffers
1b Colby Mayo
2b Luke Keaschall
SS Brooks Lee
3b Royce Lewis
RF Matt Wallner
CF Byron Buxton
LF Wilyer Abreu
DH I don't know, Alan Roden?

Bench
Mickey Gasper
Kody Clemens
James Outman
Austin Martin

I've only included players currently on the 40 man aide from trade acquisition. Obviously, Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper and Emmannual Rodriguez will be considerations early in the season. 

Thoughts in a difficult time.

 I was bringing my kids to a summer camp on Wednesday morning when my wife messaged about the volume of emergency vehicles driving below her Minneapolis office. That was the first indication that there was something terribly wrong. Fortunately, the kids were out of the car when she followed up about word of an active shooter at a school in South Minneapolis.

I spent the next two hours at a Dunn Brothers table refreshing the Star Tribune live updates for news, sad for the Annunciation community, and thankful that it wasn't worse than it was. It struck close to home for a variety of reasons. As I said, I have school age children, I live in Minnesota and in fact drove by the church just on Monday, and I went to a K-8 Catholic school that had mass on Wednesday mornings. Eventually, I went to a Catholic high school as well, and through those old connections, have a loose connection with at least one of the victims.

It's been a tough time for anyone with a heart, here or anywhere, and it's enflamed passions, as the death of children should. It's long past time that we do something. After the call for thoughts and prayers, the most impotent turn of phrase is that we need to do something. Do what, exactly? If 30 years of shootings, followed by 30 years of pleas to do something have yielded nothing, then maybe it is time to reflect and do something on ourselves.

Mass shootings exploded across the country when an assault weapons ban was repealed, allowing more automatic weapons in the streets and in the hands of anyone with the wherewithal to get them. Naturally, it seems fairly obvious that an assault weapons ban is the easy answer, but if it hasn't been brought back yet, I am not hopeful for the future. 

Mental health is an obvious factor in these incidents. Those who have lobbied to keep the assault weapons ban in place have also decried the poor state of mental health, but again, this is an area that we as a country are backsliding. We are losing access to traditional health care, I'm not confident resources for mental health are coming either.

Passions are high, and blame is never far behind. Maybe that's where we, you and I, can make a difference. We decry racism, xenophobia, misogyny, homophobia, as well we should, and are still susceptible to bundling whole groups into stereotypes. Villainizing entire group that are held dear by a lot of people - religions, political parties, law enforcement - especially when those that start to conflate with personal identity.

When we villainize groups, it's easier for them to villainize right back. The spiral continues, and hate grows, in both directions. Too often with the innocent falling as victims. So how do we change? My ask is this: Instead of looking at the worst in everyone who disagrees with us, look for the best. When we insult people who believe they are in the right, it eliminates any opportunity to communicate our beliefs to receptive ears. Find common ground.

The various phobias are less pernicious when the various groups have a chance to work and live together. There are fewer people out there to target us if we can welcome anyone. There are always going to be those who lead with hate or fear, always going to be those who see any hierarchy and want to corrupt it, but with those headwinds, we don't need to keep making enemies of one another. 

Thoughts, prayers and begging politicians to do something hasn't worked. Let's do what we can, even if it might not feel like much. Lead with kindness and openness, in a way that hasn't felt natural in 30 years, at least .

"I forgot how good he was" - Michael Cuddyer

 

There have been some ups and downs during the past 40 or so years as a Twins fan, and save for a few players that will always stand out, either for skill or ineptitude, my memory of those players kind of smooths out over time, and I don't remember the peaks or how important they were to the team in their halcyon days. 

Given that the Twins are a frustrating mess right now, I think it's OK to go back and look fondly on some players that perhaps I didn't appreciate as much at the time, and certainly don't appreciate enough now. So let's make this a regular series until I run out of gas.

Michael Cuddyer started poking around at the Major League level in 2001, often spelling Corey Koskie (who, if he hadn't just been inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame, would have a spot in this series as well), and was otherwise fairly positionless. The jack of all trades, master of none. He wasn't really a regular until 2005, and he wasn't a good regular until 2006. Perhaps that long runway is why I don't really appreciate his contributions? First impressions go a long way, especially for baseball fans.

But then Cuddyer took off. 2007 was his best year by WAR, thanks to finally settling into a position (Right Field). The fact that his best position was right field may in part reflect on his not being a great third baseman? Nevertheless, his bat had come around as well. In 2006, his OPS was .867, the highest it would be in a Twins uniform.

His 2009 season, with highlights in the video above, was a season to remember. He hit 32 home runs, and got votes for AL MVP. Perhaps this is a sign of why we don't appreciate Cuddyer as much as he deserves: his best season was also the year that Joe Mauer won the AL MVP.

Michael Cuddyer was always overshadowed - by Mauer, Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter -- and impressions of him were initially not positive thanks to a slow ramp up in his career. But you know what? Michael Cuddyer was pretty good.