The big move: Diego Cartaya

 According to the Athletic, the Twins sale may be completed by opening day. That is certainly an accelerated timeline as compared to other team sales both in baseball, and other sports in this market. To say the news is a shock is quite the understatement. 

It also renders all of the "reduced payroll" talk irrelevant. What do the Pohlads care what the season's payroll is if they aren't going to own the team? This seems even more on point than it did a couple weeks when I first made the point. The Pohlads now have no financial incentive to do anything for the Twins, either spending or saving.

So the next question would then go to the future owner of the team for payroll questions. Unfortunately, by the sound of it, there are multiple suitors, and the market is robust. The front office has absolutely no guidance on finances. And they might not until opening day.

So in this fog of war, the first 10 days of January may be the high water mark for the team's offseason. The arbitration process was settled for all players, and the Twins made a pretty decent trade given the limitations they face. If you are the headline skipping type, let me tell you: the Twins acquired catching prospect Diego Cartaya from the Dodgers for a low level pitching prospect.

Cartaya was a top 50 prospect as recently as two years ago, but was pushed out of LA's plans because of the talent on the roster but also because Cartaya wasn't hitting at the Double A level. Still all accounts seem to suggest that there is no issue with his glove behind the plate. The Twins have an offense forward catcher in Ryan Jeffers already, and one way or another, Christian Vazquez's time with the team is limited. There is a path for Cartaya and the Twins as soon as next year.

It's a good move for the Twins and new GM Jeremy Zoll. It will shore up the roster without affecting the team finances too substantially as a sale approaches. With everything coming to a head in a few short weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the last we hear from Zoll, or the MLB Trade Rumors app for the rest of the offseason. 

It's not an unexpectedly quiet offseason, though perhaps it isn't as terrible as we though. And really, it's not that much worse than the Terry Ryan years. 

I still don't believe it

 The Pohlads continue to cry poor as their ownership of the Twins nears it's conclusion. As we all know, the Pohlads are extremely wealthy, but they treat the Twins as a revenue source instead of a baseball team, and are guided by that philosophy. The small market, smallish stadium Twins are low on revenue compared to other teams, which, for a revenue minded group, might as well label the team as poor. 

But the Pohlads are selling, and will be flush with cash as soon as the team is off their hands. Everything is a business for that family, and right now, the product most on our minds is the team itself, and not how it produces on the field. There was a statement early in the offseason that the payroll would stay about the same as it was in 2024. Through arbitration and contractual acceleration, the payroll was already over what it was last year, and the interpretation was that the Twins would be cutting some players off the roster, looking for takers for Chris Paddack, Willi Castro and/or Cristian Vazquez. 

That was before news of the team being for sale, with an initial valuation suspected to be at about 1.7 billion dollars. I've already speculated that a potential buyer might not appreciate the team getting rid of players before the team was sold, and frankly, the thought of that might give the Pohlads pause before going through with such trades. They would certainly sacrifice an extra $15m if it meant securing the $1.7b sale. You would pay $15 if it meant getting $1,700, right?

But I've made that case already, and I want to make a different one. If the Twins were really looking to offload one of the contracts I mentioned, other squads would be clamoring for the affordable prices, given the large contracts being awarded this offseason. 7 million for a #5 starter? That's less than Patrick Sandoval is getting from the Red Sox, and Paddack has historically been better than Sandoval. If there was a deal to be made, and the Twins were ready to deal, I'm sure an offer is already out there. 

I think the reality of the situation is that even if the Twins were able to jettison some contracts, there isn't a good way to affordably backfill those spots. Trading away larger contracts is even more problematic, both for the baseball minds, but also the business minds hoping the Twins remain attractive. I think it's less likely today that the Twins are going to scale back their payroll this offseason than it was at the beginning of the offseason.

None of this means, of course, that the Twins are going to be expanding the payroll. Oh no, no, no. While the Pohlads are still controlling the purse strings, it's unlikely that the organization will have any interest in substantial payroll additions, even if they might be warranted, particularly with a right handed bat, or a steady first baseman. Instead, look for more nibbles at minor league free agents, like Mike Ford, who was signed earlier this week, and my end up playing some first for the Twins. 

It's not exciting, but it's also a bit less depressing. I just don't see the Twins doing much of anything for the rest of the winter. 

Just be yourself

 I think there is a reason that so many people have a fascination with female pop stars, something that goes beyond the infatuation with celebrity. It might be anecdotal, but dreams of singing fame seem more common in little girls than they do in little boys. Again, anecdotal, but it also seems that the boys who become singers seem insufferable and inauthentic. So many pop women, especially when they first arrive on the scene remind people of themselves or at least someone they know.

2024, if you were to label it as the "Year of" anyone, would obviously be Taylor Swift, as it has been through recent memory, but a good choice for second place would be Sabrina Carpenter, who had multiple top 5 hits throughout the year. Obviously, I (nor probably the readership here, I realize) am not the market for either of their music, but here I am with opinions. I find Carpenter far less interesting, musically, than her counterparts.

Carpenter is tied to Olivia Rodrigo through some drama that you are welcome to research on your own time, but for the purposes of this post, Rodrigo is a good contrast to Carpenter. It is clear that Rodrigo has been jilted in the past, and even at 21, has incorporated whatever pain she has felt into her song writing. It's made for better music. It's helped her make the transition from singer to musician. Swift did it too. The artists who resonate, particularly with me, are the ones who you can really feel in their music. 

It's great to be joyful, but you don't know true joy or growth without a little pain. Carpenter seems so effervescent, too poppy. Either she's never had a bad day, or she isn't putting enough of herself into her music, both of which are a deterrent to being as good as she could be. She falls into the traps that men have. A lack of authenticity, dragging down likability. 

As with all music posts, we all have our own tastes, and nobody is wrong for having things hit your ears the way they do. I like pop music well enough, and this was pretty much written as I tried to figure out why the (second) hottest pop star bothered me. Take it all with a grain of salt, and please, every one -- Have a happy new year

What to expect when you're expecting (a team to be sold)

The biggest news of the Twins’ offseason, regardless of who gets signed or traded, will be that the Pohlads have placed the team up for sale. After initial speculation about local buyers, the biggest name to emerge is that of the Ishbia Brothers, best known as the owners of the Phoenix Suns. Mat Ishbia even played basketball at Michigan State, so wouldn’t that be fun? The basketball guys owning the Twins, while Alex Rodriguez owns the Timberwolves?

One thing many have noted is that when the Ishbias bought the Suns, they almost immediately acquired Kevin Durant, one of the top players in all of basketball. Could you imagine a world where the Twins became players at the top of the market? Fans are abuzz, but I’m skeptical. While the Pohlads have been misanthropic and tight-fisted, there are deeper issues within the Twins organization. They have a bad TV deal that’s unlikely to be resolved, they play in a relatively small market, and they play in an outdoor stadium in the northern U.S.

The Twins haven’t been willing to shell out for players, but even with new ownership, how much would change? How much will the Ishbias—or whoever buys the team—be willing to spend before expecting a serious return on their investment? How long will they pay for top talent with limited media and season ticket revenue? Will they stomach the “cold tax,” the premium needed to attract players who might otherwise avoid Minnesota?

It’s difficult to speculate on something that hasn’t happened—or at least, it’s unwise to do so—but this news could have implications for the upcoming offseason. If the sale might take the team off the Pohlads’ hands within, say, a year, could the current owners be less inclined to scrimp this season? After all, payroll costs would be nearly immediately recouped in the sale, and the Pohlads might take one final tepid shot at competitiveness. On the other hand, if the sale is imminent, a new ownership group might balk at an effort to slash payroll before they take over. After all, it’s not what they paid for.

It’s been pretty hopeless in Twins Territory since the trade deadline, but it seems that gloom may finally be starting to lift. Hope is back.

The Twins came away from Dallas with two players

 It may come as a shock to you. I know it did for me, but the Twins have actually shown a bit of a pulse this week. No, no, it hasn't been anything wild, but the team did add former Major Leaguer Huascar Ynoa to a minor league deal, and they selected Eiberson Caballero during the rule 5 draft. Better than nothing! And more than likely, better than anything from last year!

I think it should be noted that both players are pitchers. Ynoa is a former starter, who the Twins traded to Atlanta originally for Jaime Garcia (who was traded less than a week later, to the Yankees). Ynoa was a starter, who is now only 26, but has contended with elbow and shoulder injuries. If he is back and healthy, he seems a perfect candidate to get moved to the bullpen. 

Caballero is already in the bullpen, as the rules of the Rule 5 draft require players stay on the Major League roster, or be returned to the original club. Caballero has not yet appeared in a game above AA, and has not worked out of the 'pen. Caballero is a strike out machine, and a classic example of a player whose stuff may play up in shorter appearances.

Last year, amid uncertainty, the Twins were dormant in the offseason until quite later in the winter. That they have already made some moves, and that both players add to the bullpen depth invites some early speculation. This is the internet, so heck yeah, let's speculate.

There are two larger moves that moves to backfill the bullpen could hint at. The first is a large trade. Devin Williams was just traded from the Brewers to the Yankees for a package that includes a mid rotation starter in Nestor Cortes and a potential starter, or perhaps a platoon starter at third base in Caleb Durbin. Now imagine what Jhoan Duran and his multiple years of team control would collect on the market? Surely both talent, and perhaps the ability to offload one of the contracts that seems to be on the chopping block.

But maybe the larger move that could be coming isn't as dramatic as a blockbuster trade. There have been rumblings that, after a fantastic season in 2024, Griffin Jax may be interested in a return to starting. That could provide an inexpensive route to backfilling, say, a Chris Paddack trade, but would also open the hole in the bullpen that these new faces might help to fill.

These are minor moves, to be sure, but they are moves. Last offseason, the team didn't do a thing until very late. Having anything happen is fun. This is fun.

The Twins aren't built for the Winter Meetings

 I used to joke that the Twins were regularly inactive at the annual Winter Meetings because Terry Ryan stuck to his early bed time, and all the action happened in the wee hours. While that may have been true, the fact is, the Twins have a new front office, and have for some time, and they are still mostly dormant in December. Or so it seems.

Historically, Derek Falvey is on record talking about laying the ground work in the spring for all manner of big moves, and sometimes, they come to fruition after the calendar changes. I have no doubt that is true, and this season it is even more apparent. The Minnesota Twins, and especially the 24-25 Twins, are not built for busy times at the Winter Meetings.

The big moves so far have been on the free agency market, which the Twins won't participate in unless they see their payroll brought down initially. Additionally, teams looking to offload top talent or seriously trim payroll, like the Cleveland Guardians, apparently, might be active. Headlines are made at the Winter Meetings.

But there are only so many spots for the best players, only so many matches for the teams looking to make the big moves. Knowing that they won't move at the top of the market, the Twins are often content to wait in the league and pounce when competition is less, or prices are more favorable. It's been effective, and the Twins aren't missing on any players they had a realistic shot at.

Even more so this year, the Twins are looking to shed about 15 million in salary, if reports are to be believed. After the Guardians' trade of Andres Gimenez tonight, the Twins sit comfortably atop the AL Central in terms of payroll size, and would still be there if they retreat back to that mythical $130m level. All of this, plus the hope that the team could be sold sooner rather than later suggests the team is hoping to remain competitive.

No major pieces are being sold. No major pieces are being added. This is not a team to watch at the winter meetings in the most interesting of years, an this is hardly that.  

But hey, they did sign Huascar Ynoa to a Minor League deal, so I guess that's something.

The Jorge Lopez trade doesn't get enough credit for how bad it was

When people look back at the 2022 trade deadline, the Tyler Mahle trade is often lamented because of the players that the Twins gave up in that deal. Spencer Steer is a legitimate major league player, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand looks well on his way. You can certainly be frustrated that Mahle didn't work out with the Twins, it's hard for me to get mad the players the Twins gave away. 

Steer and Encarnacion-Strand were expendable because they were redundant. If not in the Mahle trade, Steer was probably always going to be traded, given the wealth of similar talent in the organization. The Twins liked Mahle, and it stunk that he got hurt, but Steer was always getting traded. His value to the Twins was not the same as it would be for the Reds.

On the other hand, the Lopez trade. The Twins were looking to flesh out their bullpen for a postseason run, so they sent a few prospects to Baltimore to get their all star closer. As you may recall, Lopez immediately cratered in Minnesota. What you may not recall is that one of the players dealt to Baltimore, Yennier Cano, was an all star in the exact same role the Twins wanted Lopez to pitch in, the very next year. 

The Twins would have been better off keeping Cano than Lopez, two pitchers in the same role, as soon as a few months later. The Twins had to give up on Lopez before the end of the year. This was a bad swap. 

But wait, there's more. 

The Twins also traded Cade Povich to the Orioles. Baltimore used Povich to start 16 games this season. He wasn't spectacular, but don't you think the Twins could have used another depth starter this year? He wasn't great, but he did the job and will only get better.

So the Twins gave up Cano and Povich, on top of two other prospects, for about a year of miserable service from Jorge Lopez. They swapped Cano for a lesser talent at the same position, and gave up Povich, who would have been useful even this season. At least Steer and Encarnacion-Strand were extraneous. The Lopez deal actively made the Twins worse.