Are the White Sox close?

 If you have been like me and needed to bury your head in the sand for just a couple of goddamned minutes, you have turned back to the Twins offseason. It's not uplifting, but it's also not life or death. One thing that hasn't changed in these miserable times in Minneapolis is that online Twins Territory is very down on their chances. A refrain I've heard is "forget trying to win the division, they need to worry about staying ahead of the White Sox".

I'm not sure how serious it was when it was said, but frankly, it's a little bit ludicrous. The White Sox aren't necessarily the bottom feeders they were two years ago, but in 2026, they still aren't very good. Importantly, they don't look anywhere near the Twins.

The White Sox do have some players to build around, certainly. Colson Montgomery and Kyle Teel stand out as the best positional carryovers, with Seth Smith likely to start the season as their top starter. I would be remiss if I didn't also note their splash signing of Japanese slugger Muneteka Murakami. 

Byron Buxton was worth more wins by himself than Montgomery and Teel combined. Neither played a full season, but even prorated, well, the numbers look worse for Buxton. And speaking of prorated, Luke Keaschall and Austin Martin were better than Teel by a WAR metric. Seth Smith would start perhaps third or 4th in the Twins rotation, and given, again, the prorated WAR, might end up as the 6th man in the rotation. The only starter he was easily better than was Bailey Ober, and Ober has a good history.

Yes, the Twins bullpen isn't very good. But if the metric we are working off is "are the White Sox any better," then you can say, sure, the White Sox have Grant Taylor, who is better than anyone the Twins have to offer, but otherwise, they are similar groups. The Twins should see fewer innings out of their pen, though, which should go a long way.

Both teams expect to see help from their prospect pool. The Twins happened to have the 2nd rated farm in baseball mid-season last year, while the White Sox sat at 17th. There is another ranking coming out soon, and the Twins will move down because Keaschall graduated off the list. Next year, top ten prospect Walker Jenkins will be off the list too, with Emmanuel Rodriguez potentially following him. 

I'm not comparing the Twins to the top of the division. I am saying they are significantly better than the White Sox. 

The end of Max Kepler

 Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco helped form the backbone of the Minnesota Twins for half a decade, and ere at the heart of the organization for longer than that. They were signed on international deals at about the same time, and moved through the minor leagues together, even living together in many stops. Now, with recent news of Kepler getting suspended for PEDs, well, they share that as well. 

The similarities don't continue. Polanco had his suspension earlier in his career, while still a member of the Twins. This allowed him to build back his reputation, both on and off the field. After playing the postseason hero on a couple of occasions in Seattle, he recently earned a 2 year, $40m contract with the Mets. He's now three contracts removed from his PED suspension, and it wouldn't be top of mind for anyone any more, until his old roommate was pegged for a violation as well.

Max Kepler took a one year deal with the Phillies last year, his first away from the Twins. He was vocal about a lack of playing time, thought that likely had a lot to do with it being his worst season as an MLB player. The Phillies acquired the player who started as the Twins' 4th outfielder, Harrison Bader, and Bader quickly eclipsed Kepler.

Kepler used to provide surplus value as a fielder, but that wasn't the case last year, and he's going to be 33 by the time he reaches the field next. His inconsistent bat has never justified a regular spot as a corner outfielder. If he signs now, he won't play until the end of the year. Will any contender think the Kepler will offer an upgrade as a reinforcement? One that won't be necessary  in the postseason?

It's going to be tough to find a contract for Kepler, especially one that he thinks he deserves. Kepler has always come off as a bit self absorbed (complaint about his time with the Phillies don't help) and if that read is accurate, he is going to have to swallow that pride to even have a chance in Major League Baseball again. The truth is, the combination of a bad season before a PED suspension ahead of his age 33 season means time is probably running out for him.

Baseball in tragedy.

 It's just a heavy time in the Twin Cities. The results of yesterday's death of Renee Good in south Minneapolis is a tragedy for any right thinking human being, regardless of where you assign culpability, as she was a mother who was killed on what is now an international stage. Tensions were already high, and instead of mourning and introspection that we often get after a tragedy, there has been retrenchment and finger pointing. Tension has only ratcheted up, and there is no backing down. Federal agents shot Ms. Good, and federal agents shot two people in Portland just a day later. 

This is in the wake of American military action in Venezuela, and threatened ongoing action elsewhere, raising anxiety for a lot of people, at home and abroad. Making it worse is the completely disparate opinion on literally every component of the matter. Yes, right minded people mourn for the children who lost for their mother, but that is where agreement ends. Beyond that, instead of trying to find a way forward, there is animosity between the state and federal government, the left and right on the political spectrum, and among the left and among the right. Everyone is yelling. 

We all just need a fucking break. 

I am grateful for the baseball offseason this time of year, because it allows for the break. I hope everyone is able to remove themselves from the constant stream of negative emotion in whatever means that is for you, if for a moment. I'm sorry if you were hoping that this would be an escape for you, but unfortunately like so many other writers and Minnesotans, writing is therapeutic. 

If you poke around the Twins blogosphere, you'll be struck by how negative it is. It does seem pretty silly, especially today, to be so hung up on bullpen construction in the wake of everything going on, but it is an escape. But the real world implications of what is going on in the world will come up, if not now, then in the season. If nothing else, I've thought about them.

For example, what is the reputation that Minneapolis has, and where does it stand in the mind of players and staff that may ultimately come to Minnesota? Will Pablo Day be different, when Target Field is full of Venezuelan flags and representatives, honoring the beloved Venezuelan starting pitcher? 

Today was the day for arbitration filing. The Twins only have one player that was unable to come to terms with the team - Joe Ryan. They filed $400,000 apart, which is a little more than half of the major league minimum. It's easy to look askance at the Pohlads and their cheap reputation, but that total isn't really that far off from most of the players that couldn't come to terms with their teams (except for Tarik Skubal, who was $13m higher than what the Tigers suggested).

It's a reminder that ownership, even of the good teams, is in it to make money, with less concern for their employees or fans individual enjoyment than we might hope. The owners are removed from the game, and from the plight of the people they are supposed to represent. We can talk about how much money players make, but they are still the little man, the employees of a larger, self interested organization.

Most importantly, they will be the ones wearing the jersey. the one's representing Minnesota in front of all of us and whatever media is observing it. This isn't a rallying cry for the Twins. It's a rallying cry for Minnesota. It's good to have something that brings us together, and to be represented by something other than violence and tragedy. Even if it's just a break. Take care, everyone. 

"I forgot how good he was" - Rich Becker

 In the mid-90s, the Twins were a sorry team. Middle School Me quickly fell out of love with the organization, and every player, save for former rookie of the year and World Series Champion Chuck Knoblauch seemed to be trash. Largely, that was true. After Kirby Puckett and Shane Mack (more on him on another day) Knoblauch was the only position player that regularly had more than three wins above replacement. 

Against all odds, the Twins were able to garner a Rookie of the Year in Marty Cordova, but otherwise, the outfield lacked a real star after Puckett and Mack. The infield, aside from Knoblauch, did as well. In that wasteland, Rich Becker's 1996 season should stand out in our memory more than it does.

Maybe it is because it followed the strike in 94 and 95, after which Puckett and Kent Hrbek were no longer playing, and it was the beginning of an era in which the Twins were, to say the least, adrift. Also, 1996 was Paul Molitor's first and best season with the Twins. Having a future Hall of Famer join the roster and do quite well is a significant headline stealer. With all of that said, Rich Becker's 1996 season was the best WAR of any non-Knoblauch player after 1992, and until Corey Koskie, Cristian Guzman and Torii Hunter surpassed his 4.3 wins in 2001. 

And for what it's worth, that shouldn't necessarily be seen as a left handed compliment to Becker, this whole "diamond in the rough" narrative for his '96 season. Another Twins center fielder put forth an exactly 4.3 win season - Puckett in '91. That's a good year! For what it's worth, Becker also had the second highest position player WAR in '97 as well, before he was sent to the Mets for Alex Ochoa, who was also a pretty good player, so long as he wasn't wearing a Twins uniform. 

Another reason it is likely easy to forget Becker was that much of his contribution was through defensive brilliance. The Twins, famously, have enjoyed some really good defensive center fielders before and after Becker, but he added value in the role as well. Still, his '96 campaign with a .291 average with an on base percentage of .372 allowed him to slot between Knoblauch and Molitor on most games. 

A major difference between the '90s Twins and the current Twins is that they got on base all the time. Becker wasn't an offensive standout by any stretch of the imagination, not even on that team, which by mid July had 5 regulars batting over .300, and nobody hitting more than 16 home runs. With a team that put the ball in play regularly, no power and abysmal pitching, a player that could move on the basepaths and play good defense was going to be especially valuable.

Which Rich Becker was. 

The Twins are healthy (for now)

 The Twins haven't been flashy this offseason, and given how many people expected the winter to go, that might be a good thing. Now with their stated goal of contention in 2026, there is growing discontent with the slow pace of the offseason, but if you ask me, the team has been moving at a brisker clip than normal. I take this as growth.

    

Well, OK, MLBTR commenter, maybe we are putting too much pressure on Eric Wagaman, but the Twins have shown that they are adapting to their own personalities. 

Injuries have been a massive part of the story for the Twins for the last several years. Payroll wsa certainly higher than it was relative to the league in 2022 and 23, but the year that they were the most successful, the Twins did something a bit differently: They stocked up on depth pieces. Michael A. Taylor and Donovan Solano played important roles, and were present for the playoff runs. 

Another trait that the Twins have had ever since Derek Falvey came aboard was a level of patience to wait out the entirety of the market and find deals on the players still available. The Twins have had some decent success in finding players late in the offseason: Carlos Santana, Carlos Correa, other players not named Carlos. It stands to reason that the Twins are going to hold on and take a bigger - not necessarily BIG, just bigger - stab as late as March. We should acknowledge this track record for our own self preservation. 

But there has been a lot more nibbling at the corners this winter than we saw in the last couple of years. The Twins are going to wait for prices to come down on players that they hope may be their primary option, but unlike the last couple of years, they are wasting no time in setting the floor on offense. After struggling through a few months, the Twins grabbed Jonah Bride and Kody Clemens in what can only be viewed as panicked acquistions. This year, those kinds of moves will hopefully be less urgent, thanks to recent acquisitions of Wagaman and Orlando Arcia. Not starters, but Major League players should the wheels start coming off. 

One can argue with the specific moves the Twins have made, but the strategy is clear. For a team beset with misfortune for many years in a row, the only time they have been truly successful is when they worked to set a floor, rather than to raise their ceiling. Before they can start raising the ceiling, the Twins, for once, are working on setting the foundation.

If the Twins hope to contend this year, they will need to remain healthy and see their young core take a huge step forward. Some pitchers are going to have to adapt to new roles. It's not a completely unreasonable hope, given the division the team plays in. Recent reports suggest good health all around, but they front office is working to ensure that the team doesn't fall out of contention at the first hint of trouble. 

A safer bet for increased payroll

The Twins have new part owners, including Craig Leipold, an owner in the Twin Cities market of another team that is definitely Going For It this season. This has led to some hope of a larger payroll this year. The Twins bullpen is the weakest section of the team, and they could use a right handed bat to round out the offense. Why not put some money towards improving the pen, or grabbing an outfielder? 

For an organization that has come out of debt, and has historically been conservative anyways, I can't imagine that they will change their strategy and spend a lot of money on the bullpen. They never have, for one thing, but also, bullpen arms are volatile. A team that is playing it safe won't be investing in a volatile asset, not at significant expense. Using their bumper crop of starting pitcher prospects to fill out the bullpen is a much likelier strategy.

Perhaps there is an opening for one of those right handed outfielders. There aren't any big ticket names out there. Maybe Starling Marte fits the bill? But even then, that wouldn't elevate the payroll dramatically. And might not really change the pulse of the team by a whole lot, either. 

The team isn't strong in all areas. They are going to rely on some young players to carry heavy loads. Those players haven't always been consistent, and slow starts to the careers of Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee and Matt Wallner helped drag the team down last year. But they are young, and need to play in order to sort things out, get a rhythm and succeed. Failing that, there are players like Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper and and Gabriel Gonzalez who will get chances as early as this year. In addition to money, signings would want years, which the Twins won't want to give. They don't want to block playing time for those young up and comers. 

While the window is only marginally open, success for some highly regarded prospects will jam the window open a bit wider this year. One of the best farm systems in baseball means that a wide open window can be imagined on the near horizon, and that can be done without a significant near term investment. 

The Twins have put themselves in a spot where they have alienated their fan base with cost cutting over the last few years, but in doing so have given themselves enough assets worth exploring that it would be something of a disservice to not give them a chance to prove their pedigrees. With the sale of a share of the team and the excising of their debt, the Twins have a little bit of money to spend, and nowhere good to spend it.

Yet.

Maybe it's the middle aged dad in me, but having this financial flexibility rings more like a good opportunity for the future, rather than a something to burn through right now. The past is in the past, and the players the Twins lost in the last few months aren't coming back. But now, the Twins have the resources to keep some players on the roster now for longer than they might otherwise.

As I've made clear several times now, the Twins have a lot of young talent on the way to the roster. Some of those players are going to be better than others. Some of them won't have similarly scaled players coming behind them in the system. Maybe Luke Keaschall continues what he started last year. Why not sign him to an extension now, with a higher guarantee than he might otherwise get at his age and experience? Why not give Royce Lewis some security now, when his value is probably lower than it will be ever again? I think Joe Ryan is already looking ahead to greener pastures, but with the bumper crop of starters coming up, maybe Pablo Lopez will want to move into a mentorship role? Perhaps Mick Abel or Connor Prielipp make a fantastic impression. Extension, extension, extension.

The payroll flexibility that the Twins have found isn't likely to be used on the market, as much as the fans want it to be. The increased payroll should be used to do what it should have been used for 3 years ago: player retention, and keeping a good team together. 

Twins curiously sign Josh Bell

 Josh Bell looks like a Major League first baseman is supposed to look. Let's get that out of the way first and foremost. The Twins have trotted out a collection of first basement the last few years that have been fairly small in stature, from Donovan Solano to Carlos Santana to Ty France and the heir apparent, Kody Clemens, they have all been a little on the short side. the Twins signed Bell this morning for one year and $7 million in guaranteed salary between the annual salary, a bonus and a buy out. Bell is 6'3 and 261lbs. That is the build of a first baseman. 

It makes sense that the Twins signed a first baseman, one that can hit with a bit of thump. His deal is reasonable, perhaps even half of what many had theorized the Twins would expend on a first baseman. In fact, I would guess that the fact that Bell accepted such a reasonable salory is a primary factor in the Twins agreeing to go with him. Bell is a good player, but an imperfect fit for everything the Twins need. 

Bell is a switch hitter who should be good for about 20-25 home runs this season. His switch hitting bat should get him to play in almost every game, so long as he keeps hitting and stays healthy. That frees Clemens to move around a bit, to fulfill a role he is more aptly suited for. So far, I've said nothing but good things about the signing, and justifiably so! To make it clear, at $7 million in total value, adding Josh Bell is almost something ou have to do. But a few million more may have addressed all of the needs the Twins are looking to fulfill.

Bell, the switch hitter, has historically been a better left handed hitter than right handed. The Twins need someone that can be counted on to hit a few dingers, and Bell is that. The thought was that the Twins were replete with left handed hitters at the typical offensive positions, the corner outfield, first base and DH, and needed a right handed bat to balance the order, and to spell all those lefties. Bell doesn't quite do that. 

It's not even a "if the Twins are really going for it" kind of thing. The team just doesn't make a ton of sense right now with the talent arranged such as it is. There are some hitters on the team that need to be platooned, without much of a platoon partner for them. Matt Wallner will probably play in right field every day, with Bell at first. Against lefties the best choice might be to have Ryan Jeffers as the DH, with Alex Jackson sneaking into the lineup, with Trevor Larnach at DH against righties, and Clemens in the field in left instead of Austin Martin. 

Don't be surprised if this isn't the end of the offseason. There is cash for a few bullpen options thanks to Bell's affordability, but also, there is probably some new impetus to recalibrate the offense. There are a ton of left handed corner outfielders in the organization, and the Twins will need to find someone who can hit from the other side of the plate.