Supreme confidence and the undoing of Minnesota sports

I have some exciting news to share, that my family just was unimpressed by at the Mother's Day cookout. I had a question answered by Steve Adams during MLB Trade Rumors' regular chat. It's quite the accolade, and I'm very happy about it.

Suffice to say, Steve didn't share my opinion, but also, he didn't convince me that I was wrong

The Twins thought they were going to be good enough to win the AL Central with the roster as it was. Ultimately, they are still a business, and if they thought they could do it with Carlos Santana and Anthony DeSclafani, then they weren't going to spend any more money. Like I've been saying, they didn't believe they needed the strong players now, they need them in October. 

And of course, this hubris led the Twins to a very rocky start to the season. watching Louie Varland's start to the season had quite a few Twins fans on the cusp of a breakdown. The Twins front office, again, by my theory and not necessarily thanks to evidence from anyone else, assumed they had the upper hand in the AL Central, and an abysmal start to the season made that assumption seem silly. 

Amid the Twins surge back to baseball relevance, the Timberwolves were on a blistering 6 game playoff winning streak. They swept the Suns out of the playoffs, then took the first two games against the Nuggets in Denver. Nearly anyone that spoke about basketball with any sort of national presence and knowledge of the game declared the Timberwolves a force to be reckoned with, a potential NBA champion.

Then, there was a long layoff before the series moved to Minnesota. The Wolves got to hear about how great they were while the Nuggets, 2 time defending champions, got to get angrier, and prepare to for the Wolves. As we all now are painfully aware, the Nuggets subsequently went on to peel off three straight wins. Ouch. 

Now, Minnesota, given less time to figure it out, after not thinking they would need to figure things out. Denver adjusted to them, and when you are in control, you don't ever plan to make adjustments. The Wolves are lost, now, unsure of how to get back to where they were, and with time running out. They got overconfident, and it may cost their season.

Even with the long history of sports malaise in Minnesota, you would think that people would temper their expectations when it comes to our teams. I guess this is athletes and management who don't have the 30 years of torment, or the national press, looking at Minnesota teams as though there wasn't a unique history of failing to live up to the moment. Overconfidence is a blight for any situation, and it's tough to watch, since local teams haven't won anything yet. 

Finding deeper depth

Some people talk about roller coaster seasons, but I don't think there is a finer example than how the Twins have started the 2024 season. Through about a month and a half, the Twins are about where they were expected to be, just with a more interesting path. And also, the team isn't really what we expected.

When the team trimmed payroll, most of the trimming was done in the rotation with Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda moving to new homes. Little was done to replace pitchers - the only starter added was already injured Anthony DeSclafani - that left, and fans were distraught. The pitching hasn't been the problem when things go sideways, however.

The rotation has been steady even if not spectacular. The bullpen, even without Jhoan Duran to start the year, has been spectacular. The pen is a low cost area to do good work, and the Twins have done so, with Griffin Jax and Cole Sands among the success stories. With that in mind, the rotation's steady output is all that they have needed. Selecting either Chris Paddack or Simeon Woods-Richardson as the replacement for Maeda is a clear win, given Maeda's start in Detroit. Gray has been very good in St. Louis, but the luxury of having him in the rotation was probably not worth being on the hook for 3 more years into his mid to late 30s, not when the Twins have faith in their emerging pitchers.

And again, the Twins have the prospect depth to add a frontline starter as the postseason approaches. The Twins shouldn't need an ace pitcher in May, but they would really like a good, healthy extra pitcher in October. 

I've gone off the scent, responding to the various strawmen I usually respond to from the Twins internet. The problem this season, when there are problems, is the hitting. It hasn't helped that sparkplug Royce Lewis has been injured since game 1, but it hurts even more that through the first several weeks of the season, only Alex Kirilloff and Carlos Correa were providing any offensive value. 

When the Twins bats started coming around, so did the teams' fortunes. Sure, getting to face the White Sox helped, but so too did Correa's return from injury, Ryan Jeffers' explosion and Max Kepler's full health. The struggling Willi Castro became the incandescent Willi Castro. Carlos Santana couldn't stop hitting home runs. 

The Twins made a decision to cut payroll, and blamed it on the TV situation. In truth, they were probably loathe to spend a lot of money on old pitchers, and they didn't want to sink a lot of money into position players where youngsters were poised to take over. Last year, bridge players like Michael A. Taylor and Donovan Solano were effective. The one they held on to this year, Kyle Farmer, and his other players in similar roles, including Santana and Manuel Margot, have not picked up the slack, making things look even worse. 

Minnesota simply hasn't had depth that was as effective last season, so when injuries arose early, they couldn't shake out of the funk. The closer to healthy roster, with input from Austin Martin, Trevor Larnach and Jose Miranda has been encouraging. The veteran bridge has disappointed this year, but as the Twins hope for a healthy Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee, while awaiting Walker Jenkins, the key to success might be realizing that the bridge has been built internally. 

The Vikings, if nothing else, had the most interesting draft day

 

The NFL is pervasive. The Timberwolves just swept their way into the second round of the NBA playoffs, their first ever experience being the sweeping team in a postseason series. The Twins are in the midst of a 7 game winning streak (and this is more or less a Twins blog!) and yet here I am, writing about the Vikings and their draft. 

Unless someone from one of your favorite college teams was drafted in the later rounds, it is unlikely that you have any insight into the later rounds. If you are very interested in the draft, or even fairly interested in college football, you will have a pretty good concept of how teams did in the first couple of rounds, or will at least be able to form an opinion on the matter. This is a long way to say that I'm only looking at the first two rounds of the Vikings draft. Maybe one of the late round picks will blossom as well.

For most of us, and really probably for the most part, it was a two person draft for the Vikings. They plucked JJ McCarthy to be their quarterback of the future, and Dallas Turner, a dynamic edge rusher, to replace, they hope, the production that they lost when Danielle Hunter went to Houston. There are plenty of mixed opinions on the arrangement. 

The Vikings pursuit of a quarterback was not a secret. Leading up to the draft, they traded into another 1st round pick, which many suspected would be paired with their original selection to move up as far as they could to nab the QB. That turned out to be an impossible task, as the top three teams, the Bears - after trading away Justin Fields, Commanders and Patriots - after trading away Mac Jones, all needed a quarterback.

The next several teams did not need a quarterback, but there were still at least two available that were intriguing. The behind the scenes manipulations and jockeying led the Vikings to be comfortable with staying where they were. Many of the teams ahead of them wanted to ensure they got the best players at their position, or others simply weren't expected to trade within their division (like the Chargers, who weren't going to trade with the Broncos or Raiders so they could get the QB of their future). The Vikings were in a good position.

And then, the Falcons, the same Falcons who selected Kurt Cousins, leading the Vikings to need a quarterback, selected Michael Penix Jr, taking away one of the QB options Minnesota and all the others had been relying on.

Similar to the Chargers not wanting to help their division rivals, the Bears, picking 9th, weren't going to help the Vikings out, and Minnesota was fortunate enough that Chicago didn't also help the Broncos or Raiders. The Vikings then did the right thing and made a swap with the Jets to prevent the other QB needy teams from moving up for JJ McCarthy. All of this is a preamble to say that the Vikings played this draft as well as they could have. 

My opinion of rookie quarterbacks is that teams will get more mileage out of them with a good foundation around them. Receivers are one thing - and Minnesota has one of the best corps in the league - but also, a veteran and solid offensive line will give young QBs more time to think in the faster game. There are questions about McCarthy, but he probably ended up in the best environment. 

This isn't a Christian Ponder situation. This is a team that has acclimated to winning, and will put McCarthy in the best spot to succeed. No, he may not start right away, or be able to be an elite thrower, but a well constructed offense, and a very good defense will keep him and his team in games, allowing him to learn without panicking. 

And on the topic of the defense, the other selection the Vikings made was on the defensive side of the ball, where edge rusher Dallas Turner was selected. Minnesota made a trade with Jacksonville to mov up an select Turner, a larger jump than the move for McCarthy. Turner was the third overall defensive player drafted. Remember, McCarthy was the 4th overall drafted quarterback. 

With one of the best defensive minds in the game in Brian Flores as the defensive coordinator, I am left with no choice but to believe that Turner was the player that would most significantly improve the Vikings defense next year, despite what other analysts or scouts would believe. The Vikings knew they had to get a quarterback, but it was icing on the cake, I'm sure, that they were also able to get one of the top defenders in this class.

The downside to this draft was how much they had to give up. They are left with only three picks next year, but conversely, ended up making their full 7 picks this year. It's not perfect, especially with next year's situation, but there is still time to add more picks next year, and I appreciate their ability to fill out a draft class in 2024. 

Most reports I have read opining on the Vikings draft class gave them a B- or a C or something in that range, which leans heavily into the fact that they had no day 2 selections. I think given the circumstances and the means at their disposal, Minnesota did an excellent job. They needed a quarterback for the future, and unlike many of the the other teams in a similar spot, they weren't bad enough last season to have a high choice in the draft. McCarthy was not the top prospect in the draft, but he is going to a good home, and the Vikings didn't ultimately have to leverage a whole lot to get him.

They were prepared to expend a bit to get him if they had to, however. Instead of using the resources to move up for a quarterback, the Vikings were able to use them to select an edge rusher who many are already picking to be the Defensive Rookie of the Year. I hope Minnesota fans are applauding the fact that, instead of resting on their laurels, the Vikings leapt at an opportunity.

The Vikings maybe didn't have enough selections, and there is obviously going to be a difference of opinion on Turner, and drafting a quarterback, let alone the 4th quarterback, is always going to raise an eyebrow, but from my outside perspective, it looks like the Vikings did what they had to, and made the most of their situation.