The Vikings, if nothing else, had the most interesting draft day

 

The NFL is pervasive. The Timberwolves just swept their way into the second round of the NBA playoffs, their first ever experience being the sweeping team in a postseason series. The Twins are in the midst of a 7 game winning streak (and this is more or less a Twins blog!) and yet here I am, writing about the Vikings and their draft. 

Unless someone from one of your favorite college teams was drafted in the later rounds, it is unlikely that you have any insight into the later rounds. If you are very interested in the draft, or even fairly interested in college football, you will have a pretty good concept of how teams did in the first couple of rounds, or will at least be able to form an opinion on the matter. This is a long way to say that I'm only looking at the first two rounds of the Vikings draft. Maybe one of the late round picks will blossom as well.

For most of us, and really probably for the most part, it was a two person draft for the Vikings. They plucked JJ McCarthy to be their quarterback of the future, and Dallas Turner, a dynamic edge rusher, to replace, they hope, the production that they lost when Danielle Hunter went to Houston. There are plenty of mixed opinions on the arrangement. 

The Vikings pursuit of a quarterback was not a secret. Leading up to the draft, they traded into another 1st round pick, which many suspected would be paired with their original selection to move up as far as they could to nab the QB. That turned out to be an impossible task, as the top three teams, the Bears - after trading away Justin Fields, Commanders and Patriots - after trading away Mac Jones, all needed a quarterback.

The next several teams did not need a quarterback, but there were still at least two available that were intriguing. The behind the scenes manipulations and jockeying led the Vikings to be comfortable with staying where they were. Many of the teams ahead of them wanted to ensure they got the best players at their position, or others simply weren't expected to trade within their division (like the Chargers, who weren't going to trade with the Broncos or Raiders so they could get the QB of their future). The Vikings were in a good position.

And then, the Falcons, the same Falcons who selected Kurt Cousins, leading the Vikings to need a quarterback, selected Michael Penix Jr, taking away one of the QB options Minnesota and all the others had been relying on.

Similar to the Chargers not wanting to help their division rivals, the Bears, picking 9th, weren't going to help the Vikings out, and Minnesota was fortunate enough that Chicago didn't also help the Broncos or Raiders. The Vikings then did the right thing and made a swap with the Jets to prevent the other QB needy teams from moving up for JJ McCarthy. All of this is a preamble to say that the Vikings played this draft as well as they could have. 

My opinion of rookie quarterbacks is that teams will get more mileage out of them with a good foundation around them. Receivers are one thing - and Minnesota has one of the best corps in the league - but also, a veteran and solid offensive line will give young QBs more time to think in the faster game. There are questions about McCarthy, but he probably ended up in the best environment. 

This isn't a Christian Ponder situation. This is a team that has acclimated to winning, and will put McCarthy in the best spot to succeed. No, he may not start right away, or be able to be an elite thrower, but a well constructed offense, and a very good defense will keep him and his team in games, allowing him to learn without panicking. 

And on the topic of the defense, the other selection the Vikings made was on the defensive side of the ball, where edge rusher Dallas Turner was selected. Minnesota made a trade with Jacksonville to mov up an select Turner, a larger jump than the move for McCarthy. Turner was the third overall defensive player drafted. Remember, McCarthy was the 4th overall drafted quarterback. 

With one of the best defensive minds in the game in Brian Flores as the defensive coordinator, I am left with no choice but to believe that Turner was the player that would most significantly improve the Vikings defense next year, despite what other analysts or scouts would believe. The Vikings knew they had to get a quarterback, but it was icing on the cake, I'm sure, that they were also able to get one of the top defenders in this class.

The downside to this draft was how much they had to give up. They are left with only three picks next year, but conversely, ended up making their full 7 picks this year. It's not perfect, especially with next year's situation, but there is still time to add more picks next year, and I appreciate their ability to fill out a draft class in 2024. 

Most reports I have read opining on the Vikings draft class gave them a B- or a C or something in that range, which leans heavily into the fact that they had no day 2 selections. I think given the circumstances and the means at their disposal, Minnesota did an excellent job. They needed a quarterback for the future, and unlike many of the the other teams in a similar spot, they weren't bad enough last season to have a high choice in the draft. McCarthy was not the top prospect in the draft, but he is going to a good home, and the Vikings didn't ultimately have to leverage a whole lot to get him.

They were prepared to expend a bit to get him if they had to, however. Instead of using the resources to move up for a quarterback, the Vikings were able to use them to select an edge rusher who many are already picking to be the Defensive Rookie of the Year. I hope Minnesota fans are applauding the fact that, instead of resting on their laurels, the Vikings leapt at an opportunity.

The Vikings maybe didn't have enough selections, and there is obviously going to be a difference of opinion on Turner, and drafting a quarterback, let alone the 4th quarterback, is always going to raise an eyebrow, but from my outside perspective, it looks like the Vikings did what they had to, and made the most of their situation.

Vikings fans are asking the wrong question

 The Vikings had three names that were under fire when their disappointing season came to an end. General Manager Rick Spielman and head coach Mike Zimmer were let go, but quarterback Kirk Cousins remains. It's hard to argue that it was time for a refresh to the leadership for the organization (my picks would be Monti Ossenfort for GM, Eric Bienemy as head coach, if you were interested), leaving the status of Kirk Cousins up in the air, and up for debate. 

I was wrong about Cousins before he signed here. He's been a very productive quarterback, and has proven more impressive in tight situations than I ever believed he would be. Many people are asking "who would be better than Kirk Cousins?" Next year, there aren't any better options than Cousins that could be had. But that's just for next season. The real question should be "is Kirk Cousins going to be the quarterback for the next good Vikings team?"

I think the answer to that is probably not. While the team has some very good piece on offense. they also have a defense that completely fell apart last season, and an offensive line that renders their skill position players useless. They aren't far off, not at all, but Cousins' contract expires after next season, and by that point, he will be in his mid-30s. If the O-Line isn't sorted out this offseason (unlikely) he will be bruised and battered as well. Another long term investment might be possible, but carries more risk. 

Cousins contract, though, might compel the Vikings into an extension, if for no other reason than the soften his cap hit. The good news, however, is that this would make him a more appealing asset for a team angling for wins in 2022. For the next winning Vikings team, the best value Cousins may deliver to the Vikings is in the form of picks they can use to revitalize the defense and give Garret Bradbury and Christian Darrisaw linemates for the next half decade. 

While the quarterback pool in this draft class is pretty shallow, a look at Matt Corral would be good, in my opinion, but also, if Cousins is moved for additional draft picks, they could bide their time and wait for a more bountiful crop in the 2023 draft. Not tanking, mind you, because they should have excess picks from a Cousins trade, but patience. And heck, maybe Kellen Mond, or a reunion with Teddy Bridgewater is a revelation, and those picks could be used on other holes, or Mond could be traded for more picks. If not, they have a better pick to work with of their own.

But none of this happens if Cousins stays. The Vikings weren't good enough this year, and a simple swap of the coach and GM isn't going to change their fortunes, especially not without a new approach to the franchise. The best version of the 2022 Vikings probably has to include Kirk Cousins. Beyond that? For long term success, the Vikings will have to do it without Cousins. 

Putting way too much pressure on the Vikings

I don't think I am being too dramatic here, but if the Vikings don't win the Super Bowl this year, they have completely missed their shot with this window. This season is a crucial one for the Vikes, and they can't screw it up. The problem is that I don't believe they have the ability not to.
It is difficult to maintain a core of talent for much longer than 2 or 3 years, and the Vikings are likely approaching the end of such a cycle. Players will either age out of their most effective ability, or they will reach free agency, and their contracts will no longer fit. It's not an issue of team management, it's just the way things work in the NFL. The exception is teams that have a broader period of contention.
One thing that most teams who reach a contending window, and are able to lengthen that window, is a stable, home grown quarterback. The Vikingsgave up on Teddy Bridgewater, just as they have had to do with all of their drafted quarterback talent, excepting only, perhaps, Daunte Culpepper and Brad Johnson, so they broke the bank on Kirk Cousins.
So this season is just as much a referendum on Cousins as it is on the Vikings' window. He still has two years left on his deal, including the coming season, but if Cousins can't lead the Vikings deep into the playoffs, or if he does and still looks shaky thereafter, the final year of his contract will likely consist of keeping the seat warm for the next man ready to fail as Vikings quarterback.
The problem is that Cousins is a deeply flawed player, who has never really proven himself of leading a team into the postseason. Washington was just as successful, if not moreso with Alex Smith at the helm last year, before he got hurt. Quarterback statistics are hard to assess. Often because a bad team is behind early, a quarterback's numbers are inflated as his team tries to catch up. The only way, in my opinion, to judge whether or not a quarterback is effective is if his team wins when he is on the field. Has Kirk Cousins proven that he wins? Not consistently.
That's the biggest albatross on the Vikings' neck this season. Next season, they will need to worry about retaining core pieces of their roster if they hope to sustain some modicum of success. Their last challenge is time. They'll find out, either this year or next, that they've run out of it.

Is this the face of Minnesota now?

In case you hadn’t heard, Minneapolis will be hosting the Super Bowl next month. There is a chance that the Vikings could even be in it, which is exciting for local fans, and a first of it' kind event in the NFL, but regardless of who appears in the game, it will be a touchstone event for the city, with

ramifications for a generation.

With an eye on the city, you can bet that the national TV cameras will be looking for an ambassador, especially one who holds the Vikings near and dear to their heart. With that in mind, undoubtedly, cameras will turn to the most famous, most ardent Vikings fan around.

Nick Swardson

As a qualifier, I should say that Swardson is undoubtedly the most ardent, famous Viking fan out there. Certainly, there are other Vikings fans, though not as vociferous, in the celebrity community. Nobody tops Swardson for his forthright allegiance. This isn't a great look for the state of Minnesota.

The problem in general is a lack of interest in Minnesota sports from Minnesota celebrities. If you look around the internet for most famous fans of particular teams, you will find one CBS.com article that calls Craig Kilborn the most famous fan of the Timberwolves, Swardson of the Vikings and Bleacher Report suggests  Josh Hartnett for the Twins with Kris Humphries, a basketball player, second.

Prince passed away last year, but was a much more renowned figure in Minnesota and in Vikings fandom, but other Minnesotan celebrities seem to have a casual disregard for Minnesota sports. Andrew Zimmern owns some concessionaries at the various stadiums around town, but good luck getting him to a game or chatting about the teams when he isn't there. I'm not sure Bob Dylan follows sports.

There are, of course, other celebrities in the Twin Cities that have a national presence, like Josh Hartnett or Kevin Sorbo (I guess), but they are just as distanced from Minnesota athletics as the previous examples, and surely not as active on social media, for better or worse.

So Swardson is the main event. Oh, I'm sorry,  we've made it this deep into the post, and you don’t know Nick Swardson? Let me try to You might recognize him and not know it. He is the late joining member of Adam Sandler's crew, the one who joined right around the time Sandler stopped creating anything innovative or funny. In fact, Nick Swardson's lone lead role is in the lowest rated movie of all time on Rotten Tomatoes.

Swardson's career started as a stand up in the Twin Cities. He's not clever, not particularly witty, but he's always been affable, and seems like he must be a good guy to have in a circle of friends, but as a representative for your group? I mean, his most famous bit involves a ghost with flatulence. Not a hell of a lot of nuance there.

A look down his twitter timeline suggests a blind allegiance to the Vikings, which is excellent for the purposes of this piece, but also not so great because the Tweets are generally just SKOL with some emojis, or a crude expression of sexual gratification because of the success of the team.

For a famous person, Nick Swardson has an alarmingly low degree of talent, and is especially barren of the skills it would take to be any sort of ambassador for the city.

And now with the scandals besetting so many Minnesota figures, like the well spoken Al Franken and Garrison Keillor, there aren't even many revered candidates that simply have Minnesota ties, if not ties to the Vikings, that could step up and be the public face of Minnesota sports that make a whole lot of sense. None that are actively putting out fresh content, or are often in the public spotlight now.

Cameras during the game, and in the lead up to the game will be drawn to the shining stars that might represent the town. Given the successes of the team this season, the Vikings in the Super Bowl would further the demand for a local face to put on this event.

Jacob Frey or Melvin Carter, freshly elected mayors of the Twin Cities would be capable ambassadors, of course, as would Senator Amy Klobuchar or Governor Mark Dayton, but they don't possess the readymade celebrity of, well, readymade celebrities. They do have the ear of the people, however, which Swardson does not. That could be a useful tool as well.

Yes, Swardson, and probably Andrew Zimmern and a couple of other more tolerable celebrities will make TV appearances in the days leading up to the Super Bowl, but on the ground, the visitors will be interacting with us. With you and me. Sure, Swardson can get out there and give us a black eye, but people that come here, the international media and football fans the world over, and appreciate the hospitality organized by local leaders and provided by us. We can leave them with a good impression.

There will be a lot of new attention paid to the Twin Cities this February, as the Cities fill up with out of towners and media from across the world. If you ever want this kind of attention lavished on the Twin Cities again, it behooves Minnesotans everywhere to be on our best behavior, and ensuring that the cameras look to the city, rather than its celebrities. 

Let's make some playoff predictions

In the interest of honesty, I must be very clear... My NFL predictions this year were very bad. I picked the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl, and they aren't even in the playoffs. I also picked Bon Jovi to play halftime, and now we know that Justin Timberlake will be the halftime act instead, so my track record isn't great. With that in mind, let's look at what the playoffs have to offer.

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs are a dynamic offensive threat, which seems ill at odds with the perception of the Chiefs for so long. The Titans were the team I expected to win the AFC South, but that was largely because I thought they were in a very soft conference, not because they were especially talented. The Chiefs seem like the better team, because of their playmakers. The Titans have a better quarterback, but the Chiefs are just better. Pick: Chiefs

Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Rams - Yes, the Rams have been stellar all year, but the fact is, they are sending 2nd year quarterback in a 2nd year stadium and a first year coach into the playoffs against the defending NFC champion. The Falcons aren't substantially worse than they were last year, but the AFC South was much stronger this year than last. I think they are battle tested enough to get through a game in Los Angeles. Pick: Falcons

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars - What world are we living in that these two teams are both in the playoffs? Against each other? What?!  And during the season, the Bills traded one of their best defenders to the Jaguars. And the Bills decided one week, while they were in the throes of a playoff race, they decided to replace their quarterback in one of the greatest catastrophes in recent NFL history. The Jaguars have been so bad for so long it seems incredible that they are this good, but in fact, it's not smoke and mirrors, and finally, the breaks have gone their way. There is NO WAY the Bills should win this game, or even be in the playoffs. Obviously... Pick: Bills

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints - These are two good teams in what should be the highlight of the weekend. More than any other game of the weekend, I think it's a toss up. The Saints are a better offense, while the Panthers are a better defense. Two playoff tested quarterbacks, and two playoff tested teams. In this season in which nothing makes sense, the Panthers traded their best receiver, Kelvin Benjamin, to the.... to the BILLS. What?! Ugh, I'm just picking the home team. PICK: Saints

That brings us to the Divisional matchups.
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles - For all the successes that the Eagles have had this year, they haven't been the same since Carson Wentz was injured. The Falcons are 7-3 after a 3 game losing streak early in the year. They are in a good spot, the Eagles are not. Pick: Falcons

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots - The Patriots have a long history of getting gifted some terrific matchups in the playoffs. They will not lose to the Bills in January. Unless, of course, they are so stunned that the Bills are in the Divisional round of the Playoffs and don't come to play. Which isn't happening. Pick: Patriots

Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Definitely more than in the NFC, the AFC seems to have a severe break between the top two teams in the playoffs and the bottom 4. All that said, if there is a team that can beat the Steelers in this round, its the Kansas City Chiefs, with their big playmakers could put enough points on the board to put a scare into Pittsburgh. A scare, yes, but I think they don't have the necessary killer instinct. Pick: Steelers.

New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings - Here it is, the big game for local fans. The Vikings have their situation, after so many issues, figured out. Case Keenum can throw, he has a lot of options, and their running game is still a valid option despite Dalvin Cook's injury. Their defense is dominant, and the game is being played at home against a team they've already defeated. Pick: Vikings

So, who will play in the Super Bowl?

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots - The Patriots were bold enough to trade Jimmy "undefeated in the NFL" Garaoppolo, so they must feel like they have something with quarterback Tom Brady. I just feel like the Patriots are in a late Renaissance, and Brady, Belichick and the rest of the squad are out to prove that they aren't ever going to get too old to keep winning.  They did this last year, and they always seem able to beat the Steelers. Pick: Patriots

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings - The Cowboys and Bills are the only teams to play each other in consecutive Super Bowls, and I don't think we are going to see that happen again this year. The Vikings have a long history of completely blowing it in important games, and will be acutely aware of their history when they are facing the Falcons in the Championship. The good news is that the difference between this Vikings-Falcons NFC championship is that this time, the Vikings are going to be way better than Atlanta. Pick: Vikings

Super Bowl:

New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings - The ting about the Vikings of 2017 is that they just don't ever seem to rattle. They've stepped up to the plate in every test this season, from playing strong teams to losing their best players to injury, but they just keep on pounding. The Patriots have only lost to one team in the Super Bowl (twice, but still) and don't often waver in the face of adversity, like playing a road game in the Super Bowl. What does it come down to? What would be the most annoying thing? Usually, it's another Patriots victory, but as someone who lived in Chicago White Sox territory in 2005, I can tell you it's insufferable to live among fans of a championship team when you are not a fan of said team. The Vikings winning the Super Bowl would be so annoying. Pick: Vikings.