The unrealized promise of potential

 Money is a nice thing for a baseball club to have. Spend it to patch up weaknesses and to retain your strengths. It's not the only thing, though. In fact, I would argue that there isn't a team out there that was built only through spending. It made good teams better, but it hardly made bad teams good. 

In the wake of the Twins tear down after finally winning in the playoffs, there was a lot of handwringing about the payroll, and tying that directly the inability of the Twins to win in the years since. It certainly torpedoed fan morale, attendance, and maybe even the possibility of a sale, but from a leadership perspective, things likely wouldn't have seemed so dire.

The 2023 team was buoyed by, yes, a strong rotation (and arguably, the rotation is nearly as good now, and certainly younger and cheaper), but also youngsters Ryan Jeffers, Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner all appeared in the team's top WAR producers. With only Sonny Gray departing the rotation, Byron Buxton returning healthy, and a bumper crop of young major league talent, it seemed that the Twins were well positioned to be successful.

Of the four youngsters I mentioned, only Jeffers has continued on that upward trajectory. Julien was traded away for pennies on the dollar, and now the always optimistic Twins Daily has recently penned articles about how Lewis and Wallner may be nearing the end of the line as Twins. Injury has hampered both, to be sure, and certainly over exposure. Whatever the cause or whomever should bear blame, not having the expected anchors to the lineup able to anchor said lineup is a primary cause for the disappointing trajectory of the team.

At some point, even the richest teams in baseball need some of their growth to come from within. Playing in the AL Central, there is a longer runway, so we see players figure it out longer, but imagine where the Yankees would be if Aaron Judge hadn't come into his own, or the Dodgers beginning their current dynasty without Clayton Kershaw. Money helps, but having prospects that click is crucial. 

The next round, after Jeffers, Julien, Lewis and Wallner, namely Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and Luke Keaschall profile differently. Martin is as old as Lewis, but broke out later, while Lee and Keaschall are contact driven, and will be evaluated on their defense as much as their plate production. Lee is hitting now, but for how long? Keaschall is in a sophomore slump.

The Twins are going to hope that Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez, as well as anyone else that comes up at the same time as those two aren't beset by the growing pains the Twins have been done in by. The Pohlads abandoned the team, certainly, but it's all for naught if the young talent never clicks. 

Building a winner in Minneapolis

The Twins sit in a strange spot. Everyone can see the flaws with the team. Did you guys know that the bullpen is really, really bad? I've long stated that bullpen matters only if the rest of the team can get them into contention. That's the other strange thing: the Twins are only 3 games out, because the AL Central is back to being a contemptable warren of mismanaged underachievers. 

Minnesota's front office, in the face of it all, sees that they are pretty close, and rightfully know that winning will get fans to return to their seats. If winning is to continue, they need continued health in their rotation - which hasn't happened. Not only is their the potential for this season to continue to fall off without Pablo Lopez and maybe Joe Ryan at the front of the rotation, but if it were to flail with them, getting a prospect return via trade is a good way to return to the conversation quickly. 

Like it or not, the Twins are doing well this year BECAUSE of last year's trade off of their bullpen. Griffin Jax brought in Taj Bradley, Jhoan Duran brought Mick Abel. Before Ryan went down, I would argue that the 26 rotation is better than the 25 version.

So without prospects, potentially, to augment the farm system, it sounds like the Pohlads might be in a nightmare situation. They might have to spend their way out of these doldrums. They may have to pay, either to keep players in the system, or when free agency comes again, to get the team back to the top of the division in 2027. The fly in that ointment is this unfortunate survey: The Twins (along with Cincinnati) are playing in the least popular city among players in Major League Baseball. The Twins aren't in the bottom 5 for road game destination, with the ambience and facilities scoring well. Players specifically don't like Minneapolis.

Regardless of the reason - we all have theories - this likely means that, for premium players, the Twins will have to pay a "Minneapolis tax" for players to come to the Twins. All money being equal, the Twins are going to get players to come here, and then the front office looks foolish for paying too much. They will get less bang for their buck.

So how do you build a long term winner in Minnesota with those headwinds? You look for advantages only available if you are playing in Minnesota. It seems like the Twins are already leaning into that idea a bit. 

I imagine one of the things non-Minnesotans see when they see Minnesota is a cold, inhospitable climate. And it can be. Ignoring what the effects are on the player, it also affects the dynamics of the baseball. Essentially, cold, dry air is denser. Allow me to get meteorolgically nerdy on you for a second. According to the ideal gas law, pressure*volume is equal to the number of molecules*Temperature. Or, molecules per volume = density. The pressure is going to stay the same, so temperature going down means density needs to go up. Increased density will slow balls in flight down, which is why there are fewer cold weather dingers. It can also cause balls to break more easily.

So what does that mean on the position player side? Rather than power, which can get pricy, lean into a low strikeout rate, and if possible, a high walk rate. Those expensive homeruns turn into fly balls through the early and late months of the year. Getting on base is a skill for all seasons. 

The Twins have a couple of bright spots in the lineup this year. They are are also the players (with 80+ plate appearances) with the lowest K% among the top 5 in the league in BB%. The other three in that group, for what it's worth, are Nick Kurtz, Mike Trout and Brice Turang. Good company. High value may be attained by strengthening their lineup using a similar, high contact, high walk profile. Some guys that would fit that aren't going to break the bank include Seattle's JP Crawford, Detroit's Gleyber Torres and St. Louis' Ivan Herrera. More than the Twins might want to spend, traditionally, but certainly better cast for playing in the cold.

On the mound, the hard throwers are going to be valuable everywhere. Players with movement are going to benefit from time played in Minnesota. The Twins showed an awareness of this in their deadline strategy. Hard throwers Duran, Jax and Louis Varland were sent off to a great return. Justin Topa and Cole Sands, who don't throw as hard, relying a bit on craftiness were retained. Sands, for one, has one of the highest rates of horizontal motion on his slider in the game. A diminished velocity Bailey Ober has been effective recently. Meanwhile, Mick Abel has one of the higher spin rates in baseball.

The Twins should look primarily at spin and vertical and horizontal motion. A flyer on Washington reliever PJ Poulin could prove to be a good fit. Or Chase Shugart from the Phillies.

All of these conjunctures use current data one month in. And they project a profile, maybe not an individual player the Twins could look at this offseason (or in season, if the opportunity presents itself). Power will always come. We see that the Twins are able to get a cheap 1b every off season, and Byron Buxton has added the hits to his repertoire. Those homers just cost more on the open market. And don't forget defense. With fewer balls leaving the yard, running them down is important as well.

Games at the beginning and end of the season count just the same. The Twins can equip themselves for the environment they play in, an easier task than building it for the environment of everyone else. 

Matt Wallner has only played 6 MLB games in May in his CAREER

 In my last post about Luke Keaschall, I also spoke ill of Matt Wallner. If you like Matt Wallner, you will point to his electric summers. If you are wary of Wallner, you know about how he does in colder conditions. We are all right. You are only wrong if you say that Wallner is backsliding somehow this season.

Wallner is a career .180 hitter in April. His ISO is nearly 100 points below his career average, and he strikes out about 4% more as well. April Matt Wallner isn't "a little off". April Matt Wallner is bad. And that plays directly into his May.

Which Wallner, historically, does NOT play in. He has either been sent to AAA to work on things, or placed on the IL because of injury. One way or another, he spends May on the sidelines. He looks like a guy that really appreciates shaving time for the fishing opener. Junes haven't been great either, but everything looks good compared to April Matt Wallner.

If you are patient long enough, and the Twins are still in it, Wallner racks up the numbers in July. August is brilliant. Historically, he then has faded in September as well. His under the hood metrics suggest he is even worse than it appears. 

Wallner is less frustrating when you can clearly recognize the pattern he has fallen into. Now, the question is whether a player who can't play into early season momentum and character building, and fades during crunch time is someone worth building around.

Improve the lineup with this one weird trick (fans hate it)

Everyone has the player or player group that they are down on going into the season, and they will subsequently remain down on the player for the entirety of the remainder of their career. At least, that has been my experience in Minnesota, enjoying the opinions of Minnesota area fans. Thus, as the Twins continue to crater over the past week, in particular, 

The rotation continues to be the highlight, and the rest of the team hasn't been good enough to warrant worrying about the bullpen. That is because the team stopped scoring runs. I noted in my last post why the outfield prospects, like Emmanuel Rodriguez, aren't going to be called up yet (and actually, now James Outman has strung together some good appearances), and it is because of the efficacy of Trevor Larnach and Austin Martin. 

So where is the problem? There are two players in particular who have been bad all year, and haven't got any better in the last week or so. One of them is Matt Wallner. Speaking of those hobby horses people like the denigrate all the time, Wallner is certainly one of mine. That said, part of the Matt Wallner Experience is understanding that he will be borderline unplayable until about mid-June, in which he will really take off, completely unnoticed by me, and end up with decent stats by the end of the year, mostly accrued after the team is out of contention anyway. 

The point is, a bad Matt Wallner is April is just Matt Wallner in April. The difference this year is that with ABS, he hasn't been able to pin his strikeouts on the umpires. Maybe he is hurt, what with the grimacing at the plate? Wallner is pretty entrenched, and will be given time to work out his kinks, so we can enjoy a glorious 6 weeks in the middle of summer where Wallner is terrific.

So that leaves Luke Keaschall. Twins fans should be well informed about sophomore slumps by this point, and he has had one all season thus far. His WAR is lowest on the team, and looking under the hood, it's driven by a low wOBA and a similarly low xwOBA. He isn't hitting, he isn't hitting hard, and he has nobody to blame but himself.

Keaschall hasn't played a full year of Major League Baseball yet, and he has all three of his options remaining. In the interest of giving the team a jolt and also helping Keaschall with his ongoing development, the Twins should send their second baseman to St. Paul. Not forever, just until he sorts things out.

The Twins have a pretty good built in maneuver. They can call up Ryan Kreidler, have him take reps at short and move Brooks Lee to 2nd. The offensive jolt might be minimal, but the improvement to defense would be notable. If you want to get really weird, you could try Orlando Arcia, instead. 

The Twins are only 2 1/2 games out. They will continue to make win this season moves, while trying to preserve their player development. Right now, this seems like the right, if not popular, move. 

It's not time for Emmanuel Rodriguez yet.

 The Twins are approaching an eight of the way through the season, and have continued to flirt with .500. They have started to slide in the past week, losing painfully to the Reds and Mets, and dropping the series opener with the Rays. Their bullpen has shown weaknesses, but the skid has come as the starting pitching has scuffled, and the hitting has been less effective. 

The Twins, as I've said early and often, are still treating this team as a team that intends on contention. It seems like they should be putting their best players in the organization on the field, right? The folks that gave up on the the team before the season started are looking at the recent streak and have already started calling on dissembling the team and calling up prospects. 

In this regard, it seems like there should be common ground, right? Dispatch James Outman, call up Emmanuel Rodriguez. It seems so easy! Outman has been a little used bench player, playing in 20 games, mostly as a defensive replacement - he only has 24 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Rodriguez has an OPS of .887, smacking around AAA pitchers. There is no doubt that Rodriguez, right now, is a better player than Outman.

Of course, Outman hasn't got into a rhythm this year. There was a chance that he would pop in to spell Austin Martin or Trevor Larnach, two other guys that seemed to have narrowly made the roster this year. Well, Martin has been the Twins' best position player on the team so far, and easily so. Trevor Larnach has mostly platooned, and isn't known for his glove, but his WAR is #4 on the team among offensive players. 

When Martin is off, Larnach plays. Often, they play together. There is no spot for Outman to fit in the lineup, especially with Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner entrenched (and Ryan Jeffers or Josh Bell or Victor Caratini or whomever is occupying the DH role on a given night). But Outman is 28, and is not likely to emerge as the long term asset that Rodriguez could. It is paramount that Rodriguez plays every day. The Twins smartly don't want him waiting around on the bench.

If a change does come, expect it to come after an extended decline of the team, and trades being made. Or after an injury. There isn't as great a case to get Rodriguez to the majors right now as it appears on it's face. 

The Twins remain unabashedly confident.

 The Twins were on a high before they played the Reds. Since then, they were swept at home, suffered injuries, and have seen long suffering fans once again abandon hope. The moves the team made to address the areas of diminished depth, however, seem to indicate that the front office is still fully on board with making 2026 a success. 

It helps that, since Pablo Lopez went down, the injuries the team has seen haven't been the long term disasters that we all have become accustomed to. Royce Lewis is already back. Mick Abel's elbow, allegedly, isn't anything serious. Really, the longest term impact is probably Kody Funderburk, whose wife had a baby. He'll be dealing with that for a while.

The way these injuries have been addressed is interesting. In particular, the pitching depth tests have been strange, if this was a team simply looking to bide time until they are fully in contention again. There are plenty of spot fillers in St. Paul, players with longer MLB careers, and aren't reasonably presumed to be fixtures of the Twins' long term futures, like John Brebbia or the recently signed Luis Garcia. But that isn't the route the Twins took when Abel, Funderburk and Cody Laweryson went on the injured list. 

Even with the short stints expected on the IL, and with most of the world projecting the Twins to be in a rebuilding phase, the team still opted to start the clock on Connor Prielipp and Kendry Rojas, prospects in the organizational top ten. With Abel off the list, they are also two of the top 3 pitching prospects in the system. They also have had hot starts in St. Paul.

Maybe they will both be in the Majors for a longer stretch than just these couple of weeks, but with the information on hand, it looks like the Twins were trying to capture the momentum of a couple of guys pitching well to try to maintain some sort of forward momentum with the Major League roster, and they didn't take into account what that meant for service time. 

Calling up Prielipp and Rojas now, in mid-April, is a clear win now move. The prevailing narrative is that the Twins aren't a team that is going to contending team this year, but time and again, the team has shown that they aren't buying into it. 

A brief bit about luck and hitting in the clutch

 

This morning, we took the kids to the Mall of America, and they went on rides at Nickolodeon Universe, and I walked around, very happy not to do the rides. While walking the grounds, I walked over the site of the Met Stadium home plate, and said, "Aw, crap" and recalled the curse. Then the Twins blew their game against the Reds. Sorry, gang.

One factor that I regularly called out during obnoxiously slow starts was the "clutch" metric from Fangraphs. Essentially, it showed that the Twins were regularly and dramatically worse than their regular selves in late. close and run scoring opportunities. This year, the Twins have gotten off to a better start despite meager projections.

Naturally, I thought that perhaps this meant the Twins were finally seeing things fall their way. The "clutch" rating is thought to be luck driven, and should ultimately trend towards 0. The beginning of the 2026 season seemed like all those bad times were being corrected, with a better than normal performance in the clutch. You know, the Twins are getting results because they have been lucky. 

The Twins are in the middle of the pack. Their clutch score is a hair above 0. The highs we have been feeling in the first 1/10th of the season? That's just how normal fans live. I see why baseball is so popular.

So are the Twins actually good? Maybe. Probably better than promised. They have played a bit above .500, and I think that is plausible. If they had hit a bit better when it mattered in the past couple of years, perhaps this recent run of success wouldn't be so hard to believe. 

That same darkness remains.

 The Twins are 10-7 this year, much to the utter shock of the baseballing world, and perhaps most of all to Twins fans everywhere. I've spoken about my resistance to the overwhelming pessimism surrounding the Twins this season, but even this is a significantly better mark than I anticipated. It should serve as a reminder, however. 

A reminder that even though we have problems with certain specific actions or decisions the front office or management makes, or question a players fit with the team, the players aren't the problem. The manager isn't the problem. The front office isn't the problem.

It's always been the Pohlads. 

Derek Falvey was second guessed for his trade deadline results last year, and other trades he has made in the past. His signing of Josh Bell and retention of Trevor Larnach were questioned, because of the fit, and value vs. the money available. The Griffin Jax/Taj Bradley trade is paying immediate dividends. Mick Abel looks like the real thing. Josh Bell has been ethereal, and Trevor Larnach has produced, even against lefties. Austin Martin is breaking out, and on days he doesn't eat Canadian Subway, Simeon Woods-Richardson has been stable at the back end of the rotation. Those last two have been in the organization longer, but the first several instances were happenings early in the offseason.

Derek Shelton is getting plaudits, and people are still bad mouthing Rocco Baldelli, though managers barely matter. Even if Shelton was a deciding factor in the Twins' early season success, some is still owed to Rocco Baldelli, who brought him to the team in the first place, as bench coach. There is some philosophical overlap.

And of course, the players are always going to be out there grinding, for themselves and for one another. Their effort and attitude hasn't been the problem. The manager hasn't been a problem, and the front office isn't the cause of any strife the team has. The problem is the Pohlads.

Even after the team sold a portion, the problem remains the Pohlads. Always the Pohlads. 

Women's basketball on the cusp

NIL has left an indelible mark on college sports. Nevertheless, the NCAA football championship game featured Indiana winning over Miami, and the Final Four saw Illinois weasel their way in. None of those football schools are regarded (not anymore, in Miami's case) as college royalty. In Illinois' (and yes, Connecticut's) case, they got to the Final Four despite not being a number one seed. There is more money, yes, but there is a lot to go around.

In women's basketball, there is also a remarkable level of NIL and endorsement money in the women's game as well, and the game has benefitted because of it. Well known players like Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese and Paige Bueckers have been able to stay through a full college career because the income level is enough that they don't yet need the professional salary. Their brand names in their college towns were enough. 

There is a talent gap in women's basketball that doesn't exist in the men's game. I don't mean that  to diminish the game, but rather to state that the best teams are simply a lot better than even the next tier. This year’s Final Four consisted of four No. 1 seeds; last year saw three—plus Connecticut. The game is at a peak in attention, but for now, there isn’t much parity.

I officiate high school basketball, and I get to watch boys and girls, and even more than the college resurgence, that has made me a fan of the women's game. And women's basketball is a different game. The rules are the same, but the strategies are evolving. Former players are now coaching and recognizing more effective ways to utilize talent.

Unlike men's basketball, size isn't as important in players. Since players are smaller and don't have the same reach, there is more space on the court. Ball handlers and facilitators are essential. Clark is tall. Physically, she could profile as a forward. What separates her from her peers is her handling and outside shooting. No need to jam everyone into the lane.

The game is different for girls and women, thanks to co. aches adapting strategy to the game, which helped to bring the modern stars to the forefront. The game is better for it. The players are now put in a position to play the best version of their games. and now have seen that good women's basketball draws fans too.

Getting the game right was stage one, and probably not one that was recognized early enough. Now that the game strategy is so good and player development at younger levels is better equipped to find the right skills, NCAA Women's basketball is on the cusp of much more entertaining tournaments. More girls are playing, and more former players are coaching and developing talent.

It’s only a matter of time before No. 1 seeds are no longer automatic favorites—because more teams will have elite talent.

The Twins wish they had a bullpen problem

I've been putting my sports opinions online since I had a Geocities site with my friend Steve. That means over 20 years of this. Suffice to say, some things have changed. Opinionated young writers were early adopters to advanced statistics, which made us feel smart, certainly smarter than old fashioned writers, and often smarter than the teams we loved/derided.

Baseball is a numbers driven sports, and eventually, those advanced stats made their way into front offices, along with some of those same writers that proved they actually WERE as smart as they insisted. Now with everyone mostly on the same page statistically, teams have started ingesting more data and putting it to good analytical use. Maybe it is the loss of my youthful hubris, or if it is the teams stepping thing up in brainpower, but I am happy to admit that teams are generally smarter than I am.

But one thing hasn't changed, and I am equally happy to note that the Twins seem to ascribe to my philosophy on this: bullpens aren't particularly important. 

Good bullpens are made great by pitching staffs that go deep into games, and the Twins bad bullpen is mediocre - literally middle of the pack so far - thanks to a rotation that has given innings. Simeon Woods-Richardson and Taj Bradley, in particular, have stepped up to give that length. 

But the bullpen wasn't what did the team in last year, and it hasn't been the problem in 2026. The Twins failed to score enough runs. They never seemed to come through when runners were in scoring position. I've commented on this before, that the Twins just have a historical trend of being much worse in leverage situations. Towards the end of the year, they just stopped hitting in any situation.

The Twins had a tortured offseason, thanks to ownership intrigue and front office turnover, but they did have a throughline. Before Derek Falvey left, Minnesota added Josh Bell and Alex Jackson. Immediately after he left, the first move was for Victor Caratini. When the team broke camp, of all the utility infielder options, they opted for Tristan Gray, the bat first option. They kept Trevor Larnach. They did almost nothing until the very end to address the bullpen.

The Twins knew that the one thing that would hold them back was an inability to score runs. Their starting pitching would cover for their bullpen. Even if it didn't, the ability of the bullpen won't matter if they don't score runs. So far, the Twins aren't scoring. Take the Easter game against Tampa. Minnesota got 9 solid innings from Woods-Richardson, Kody Funderburk and Cole Sands. By all accounts, that should have been enough. In the 10th, things went sideways, but it was a problem because the Twins couldn't score more than one run.

Byron Buxton and Luke Keaschall are the carry over engine of the team, and they need to get going, certainly. They should expect more from Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee. Larnach, Bell and Gray have been effective. But they haven't hit much at all yet, and the bullpen continues to be a non-issue. 

It is OK to enjoy the 2026 Minnesota Twins

 It's hard to convince Minnesotans and people that have watched the Twins for any length of time that clutch hitting and momentum aren't real things in baseball. Against all odds, the team has regularly played below their projections for the last couple of years, all while falling well below the expected "clutch" metric for years. These are both things that should even out, that haven't. The Twins are historically unfortunate, or bad vibes are a tangible thing that can be applied specifically to the Minnesota Twins. 

It's undoubtedly the reason that you see a consistent drumbeat of negative perception from fans, both local and national, as well as the human writers behind it. There is Aaron Gleeman at the Athletic, Twins Daily, even Twinkie Town locally, and I recently saw a MLB Trade Rumors poll that had the Twins as the least likely team to with the AL Central. That's rough. 

Meanwhile, Fangraphs has the Twins finishing nearly .500, and ahead of the Guardians and White Sox. 

I know I've mentioned this a few times in the past, but, let's summarize my general opinion of the offseason and the state of the team before we look ahead to the start of the season: The problem with the Twins is the owners, and their unsettled winter only made things worse. The bullpen sell off was not as great an issue for me as it was for others, as bullpens are a luxury for good teams. If the Twins are good in other areas this season, then we can grouse about the lack of arms to close out games. Of course, if the Twins ARE good this year, it will likely be on the backs of some players that came to the team at the deadline last year. And that goes to my final point: the Twins would be widely viewed as an up and coming break out candidate, thanks to their young MLB talent and high minors prospects, if it weren't for the fact that they were in the postseason just a couple of years ago. 

I think the utter lack of expectations is going to be a gift for the Twins this year. Derek Shelton is coming to an organization that is older and more professional than the Pirates team he managed for the last few years. For all the lack of payroll, there are still anchors like Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton, and players that have a great pedigree on the cusp of breaking out, like Brooks Lee, Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis and Luke Keaschall. There are top prospects in the rotation, like newly acquired Taj Bradley and Mick Abel. When things start to derail, as they always do, there are plenty of players that project to be more than just warm bodies that will take roster spots. 

James Outman made the team after a good spring and a lack of player options, but Alan Roden was better, but was sent to St. Paul because he still had an option. He'll be up sooner or later. Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez and Walker Jenkins will also find their way into the lineup this season as well, and each time one of those guys appear, it will be exciting. 

Baseball is at it's best when it is quirky, and you get to know the personalities of the players involved. Over the last couple of years, the sheer star power and corporate polish of Carlos Correa were dominant elements of the public facing side of the team. Byron Buxton is the shining star of the team, and he has a pretty decent sense of humor. I'm looking forward to seeing more from the players on the roster. I mean, Brooks Lee's got to be at least a little bit goofy, right? He looks too much like Nick Punto not to be. 

If we can get out of our own way for a bit, if we can look past our anger and frustration about the way the Pohlads have run the team, from their botched sale and front office mismanagement, and instead appreciate the players, the coaches, and importantly, the people working hard in the stadium to make the game experience as enjoyable as they can, this can be a fun team. I think they will be looser than the past couple of years have seen, and that might even help them overcome their projections. 

I'm looking forward to the season, like I do every year, even after offseasons when, once again, I swear off the organization. This season is going to be weightless, and I intend to enjoy it. 

Avoiding the annual pessimism trap

Every year during Spring Training, we look ahead to next season, and we get a full buffet of sites and notoriously smart people discussing their projections. Projections in baseball have a reputation for being more reliable, because statistics are so good, monitoring is so thorough, and there are so few variables during individual at bats. The Twins have failed to match their projections for the last couple of years, and now, projections and sentiment are very down on the Twins. 

I understand how sentiment has come to the spot it is in. I've made it clear that I think the poor business skills of the Pohlads has led the offseason not proceeding the way anyone wanted it to. That said, given the current roster, and despite a pretty awful spring, I think the Twins and fans do have reason to hope in 2026. I say this knowing, again, that the more hope we have, the swifter the kick to the nuts comes from Fate. 

Functionally, how is the Twins team different in 2026 from the one in 2025? Obviously, the bullpen was obliterated. Carlos Correa isn't there, and Pablo Lopez will miss the season. "Carlos Correa isn't there" is a statement you could have said at many points during the last couple of years as well. He was either hurt or a shadow of himself. Pablo Lopez also missed a great deal of the past couple of seasons. This year, the Twins will be able to plan around it. A good bullpen is a luxury that good teams have. If we are talking about the bullpen this season, that is a reflection on how well things are going elsewhere. 

The Twins problem last year was an inability to score runs. They couldn't put together good at bats consecutively. This is a problem known as poor sequencing, and most statisticians will tell you that this is something that will work itself out with enough samples. It hasn't for most of the last decade. The Twins are significantly worse at the plate in late and close situations, or with runners in scoring position. I'm all for dingers, and I don't mind the three true outcome players, however the Twins haven't been getting two of the outcomes, and striking out too often when it matters. One way to ward that scenario off is adding more complete hitters to the lineup.

And they did. The Twins will have Josh Bell and Victor Caratini taking regular at bats, and we should see a full season of Luke Keaschall and Austin Martin. The Twins have been boring on offense, and Jhoan Duran's entrance was even more exciting, because it meant the Twins actually scored some runs in that game. 

There is also the prospect of full seasons of Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Brooks Lee, all former top prospects who have seen their shine come off. Part of it is injuries, part of it is pitchers adapting to their abilities. All three still have natural talents, and none are older than 28 - the year that Michael Cuddyer finally broke out. With the pedigree those three have, and a chance to make their mark, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss all three players. The projections have always overestimated their production. Why can't they, for once, underestimate it?

And if they don't, Walker Jenkins, Emmannuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Kaelen Culpepper and Alan Roden are waiting in the wings. 

Those are all hopeful thoughts that I don't believe are outlandish. But let's talk about a couple things that are firmer truths. First, the rotation, even without Pablo Lopez is just fine. Joe Ryan is good. Bailey Ober is healthy, and before last year, you could say that Ober and Ryan were on par. If Ober is healthy, in the AL Central he is a good #2 pitcher. I'm not sure what else Simeon Woods-Richardson needs to do to get taken off the wishy-washy is he/is he not in the rotation. Lopez getting hurt seemed to have done it this year, however two years pitching to an ERA just a skosh above 4.00 is a perfectly reliable mid to back of the rotation pitcher. He has been good for over 20 starts a year for the last two years. Just pencil him in.

The Twins have a bumper crop of pitching prospects. Mick Abel, Andrew Morris, Connor Prielipp and Kendry Rojas are the top names that won't make the roster. Taj Bradley and Zebby Matthews will make the roster. Their numbers haven't been as good as SWRs, but their metrics are better than the actual numbers. That's not a bad rotation. It's at least middle of the pack for Twins rotations this century.

Most importantly, the Twins play in the AL Central. The Tigers are the top dog in the division, but the rest of the division is surmountable. That means that if things go a bit awry for the Tigers, it could be anyone. Even the Twins, with their modest roster.

If all those things come together, then we will be able to fret over the bullpen.  It's not crazy to think that they could. 

Business is hard.

 Last week, I noted that there was probably one more shoe to drop. Unfortunately, that shoe was actually rushing towards us to kick Twins fans collectively right in the gut. First, Pablo Lopez went down with a UCL injury, because of course he did, but now Joe Ryan is also getting checked out for a back issue that will probably be serious because: Curse. 

There is also something else going on here, and it's something that so many Twins fans have been saying for such a long time: The Pohlads. 

It's not entirely what you think, though. The ongoing conversation is that Pohlads are miserly, unwilling to pay the necessary salaries to field a competitive baseball team and generally hostile to the Twins. I am hear to offer a different opinion. The Pohlads don't understand baseball and are bad at the business therein. 

Just a couple highlights before our recent circumstances. The Twins signed the last small (relative) TV deal before the Dodgers signed a huge deal, and other teams had a blueprint for making money from local TV. The Twins were at least able to secure a new stadium, and had a good season before all of their stars got injured, and took very few actions to replenish the roster and were bad for most of the 2010s. Then, again when TV deals were coming due and the team ramped up to position themselves as an attractive piece of media, only to see the entire regional sports carrier market collapse. Instead of then pivoting, they throttled their payroll and destroyed fan loyalty, which was the only reliable source of income they could count on.

Now, obviously bad luck played a role in those various disasters, but it is important to acknowledge that bad decisions led the team to be vulnerable when there were headwinds. Their TV situation over the past 25 years has been the number one overarching factor in keeping the Twins as a small market team, as the Pohlads saw the organization as a traditional business, rather than the investment smarter owners see it as. Payroll goes up only as profits due, so with a fixed television income below what other markets were offering, the Twins were always going to be handicapped. 

Now, according to the comments that Tom Pohlad has made (and maybe this is thanks to the new investors in the organization), he seems to appreciate that the way to drive up interest is by winning, and that winning takes some monetary investment. He also, quite rightly, sees the Twins as a viable contender in the AL Central. If your team has a pulse, you are a contender in the AL Central. I'm on board there too. 

Now here's the problem. A fundamental difference in the world of business and the world of sports is that your operational "year" starts at the trade deadline, with an opportunity to reset at the end of the season. January 1st is just a holiday, and not an opportunity to make changes to your front office or direction of the organization. If they wanted to reevaluate at the beginning of the offseason, that would have been fine, they could have been aggressive and rounded out the current roster. They would have been justified in continuing the tear down and creating a super-farm. 

But they didn't. The business minded Pohlads got their new investors, and after the new year shook the organization up. Unfortunately, this is like Target firing the store manager during Christmas season. The desire to be more aggressive came too late to do anything. The Twins held the Falvey led organization from continuing their aggressive reset for the future. Now, Lopez and maybe Ryan will not be able to provide any return for the Twins, either on the field or as a trade option. This wouldn't have been a problem if the Pohlads knew what they were doing, and just made their decision a couple of months earlier.

But they don't. Ownership incompetence is its own curse. 

One more shoe to drop

 It seems as though everyone is predicting the Twins to make one more move soon. There isn't much left on the free agency market, though I could foresee the team adding Michael Kopech (and Liam Hendriks, apparently) on a deal to work out of the back of their bullpen. More likely, the Twins are going to shake things up with a trade. How big a trade remains to be seen. I, for one, think there is a big trade coming, and I don't think it is one that many people see coming. 

There is no shortage of people that are looking at the Twins roster, realizing that there are extra left handed corner outfielders, and a dearth of qualified bullpen arms. Both of those situations are likely to be addressed in whatever deal comes down in the next couple of weeks. 

The big question early in the offseason surrounded outfielder Trevor Larnach. Why was he tendered a contract for this cash strapped organization, especially on a team with no shortage of similarly skilled players? Naturally, Larnach is the name that most fans expect to be dealt.

Hear me out, though. If people outside the front office questioned whether Larnach was even worth being tendered a contract, but the Twins chose to tender him anyway, that suggests they value him more highly than the market likely does. If that’s the case, it seems unlikely another team would suddenly step in and value Larnach more than Minnesota does. Tendering him despite those doubts doesn’t exactly position the Twins to maximize a return on investment in a trade. For that reason, Larnach probably isn’t as firmly on the trade block as some assume.

If the team does make a deal, they will need to find an asset that another team will value, that the Twins would be able to backfill internally. With Larnach, he is one year of depth until Walker Jenkins joins the team full time, which also allows the team to move on from a different player with more years of control, potentially garner a better return package. 

That leaves three prominent possibilities: Matt Wallner, Alan Roden and Austin Martin. Wallner may command the greatest return, but the Twins may be loathe to trade away another native Minnesotan after the Louis Varland debacle, and the team labored with a poor on base percentage last year, making Austin Martin more valuable.

The Twins have a more significant move still awaiting us this spring. Don't be surprised if it' Alan Roden on the move again.

What in the actual f***

 As a society generally, and in Minnesota specifically, we have developed this sort of, I don't know if it's resilience, but perhaps maybe it is persistence? We keep getting our kids to the bus stop in the morning, going to work, letting the dog out, all that stuff, but now we do it with this thought noodling around in the back of our mind: "What in the actual fuck is going on right now? 

In that regard, the Twins are a microcosm of Minnesota. A lower consequence version, certainly, and also something that makes it a bit harder to view them as the escape I usually want them to be. The parallels are too on the nose. Right now, the main headline is about stories to watch as Spring Training gets underway. Of course, the first couple of spots are dedicated to the rotation and the bullpen, and there is later a discussion about the prospects and the corner outfielders. Generic Spring Training stuff. 

And then the next article notes that the president of the team, who was hired to be GM 9 years ago, abruptly left the team with 2 weeks left until Spring Training starts. What in the actual fuck is going on right now? 

One of the 5 things that we are watching is whether or not the Twins will be making a move in the final weeks of the offseason, even as the players are in camp for Spring Training. the Twins have a history of doing just that, after all. "But the old guy is gone!" you and I shriek into the void. How does past history have anything to do with right now, now that everything has changed?

And something has definitely changed, to the best of our outside knowledge. Based on comments from Tom Pohlad, Derek Falvey and some writers more in touch with the organization, it appears as though Falvey and Pohlad had different visions for what the Twins would be in the near future, and how to run the organization. Part of the problem was the Falvey was in charge of the baseball AND the business, and may have been slightly overmatched.

On the baseball side, he was confronted with a mandated payroll reduction for two consecutive years, which cratered fan interest, which obliterated the business side of the operation. However, confronted with those realities, Falvey and the organization pivoted to the best way to be competitive on a budget: Prospects. I don't believe Falvey nor other members of the organization thought that the team last year was in need of a tear down, but they also saw it as the most realistic way to achieve long term success. Agree or not, it was a plan.

Then, there was a shuffle at the top, and Tom Pohlad, a business minded member of the Pohlad family, took over. With new investors, and a struggling bottom line, he wanted to show that the team would be profitable, and he wanted that right now. 

Rightfully, he saw that the path to success was through victory. Incorrectly, he has continued to insist that we shouldn't fixate on the payroll. Unfortunately, that seems to be because there just aren't that many people left to sign. Maybe Falvey was pushed out the door because he wasn't active enough in free agency, because the Twins have apparently been interested in Freddy Peralta and Framber Valdez since Falvey was escorted out the door. 

Maybe Falvey wanted out because those expectations, of taking a big swing (while keeping salary modest) and winning right away is such an abrupt change from what they had geared up for. Either way, there was a difference in strategy. Falvey wants long term team success. Pohlad wants immediate success. It was far too deep into the offseason to make the change, however, and now the Twins are an even greater mess than they were before. 

The top job in this cycle

 There were a whopping 10 NFL head coaching vacancies this year, and while I don't want to say too much (the Raiders and Cardinals are still looking and I have my fingers crossed!) I do think it is interesting looking at who ended up where. John Harbaugh went to New York, Kevin Stefanski went to Atlanta, and perhaps most curiously, at least in my book, Robert Saleh left San Francisco to go to the Titans. 

I'd heard more than one person, certainly someone more in tune with football than me, say that the Titans' job was the top opening out there. The logic made sense. They had last year's number 1 pick Cam Ward ready to make a jump next season, there were limited payroll obligations, especially as their quarterback is not on a typical "quarterback" salary, and the organization, frankly, doesn't have the long term dysfunction some of the other openings have had.

If the Titans were the best landing spot, why didn't the two top names on the market end up there? Each coach had a reason, and the Titans liked did as well. Harbaugh was the biggest name out there after leaving the Baltimore Ravens after a multi-decade, multi-Super Bowl career. After that success, and paying those dues, Harbaugh is significantly more likely to be capable of handling the bright lights of New York. The Giants are similar to Tennessee in that they have a young, talented quarterback to mold, but they are different in that they are not in Nashville. 

Stefanski likely had a different consideration. He came initially from Minnesota and went to the Browns, where he did the almost unthinkable - brought Cleveland to the postseason. Stefanski, as I noted, started in Minnesota, and now goes to the Falcons, where Kurt Cousins remains on the payroll. Maybe Cousins will be jettisoned this offseason, but also, maybe not. Cousins and Stefanski would start with a baseline of understanding that could get the ball rolling before Michael Penix takes the role back over. 

For their part, the Titans have ever only really had success when they have focused on rounding out their defense. Jeff Fisher brought them to the Super Bowl. Mike Vrabel made them relevant with Ryan Tannehill leading the way. Stefanski has an offensive background, while Harbaugh, as noted, was not likely interested in starting at ground level in Nashville. Robert Saleh is renowned for his expertise on the defensive side of the ball. Saleh fits the mold of "good Tennessee Titans head coach."

Saleh also has "head coach" on his prior resume. It speaks to his abilities as a defensive coordinator that after coaching the Jets, he was able to secure another head coaching role. It's been proven time and again that the second run for head coaches in all sports are better in their second spot. Saleh has experience leading an entire roster, and at building out talented defenses, even if those defenses are fraught with injuries, as the one in San Francisco was.

The Titans did have the top job on the market this cycle, and they got exactly the coach they wanted. 

Are the White Sox close?

 If you have been like me and needed to bury your head in the sand for just a couple of goddamned minutes, you have turned back to the Twins offseason. It's not uplifting, but it's also not life or death. One thing that hasn't changed in these miserable times in Minneapolis is that online Twins Territory is very down on their chances. A refrain I've heard is "forget trying to win the division, they need to worry about staying ahead of the White Sox".

I'm not sure how serious it was when it was said, but frankly, it's a little bit ludicrous. The White Sox aren't necessarily the bottom feeders they were two years ago, but in 2026, they still aren't very good. Importantly, they don't look anywhere near the Twins.

The White Sox do have some players to build around, certainly. Colson Montgomery and Kyle Teel stand out as the best positional carryovers, with Seth Smith likely to start the season as their top starter. I would be remiss if I didn't also note their splash signing of Japanese slugger Muneteka Murakami. 

Byron Buxton was worth more wins by himself than Montgomery and Teel combined. Neither played a full season, but even prorated, well, the numbers look worse for Buxton. And speaking of prorated, Luke Keaschall and Austin Martin were better than Teel by a WAR metric. Seth Smith would start perhaps third or 4th in the Twins rotation, and given, again, the prorated WAR, might end up as the 6th man in the rotation. The only starter he was easily better than was Bailey Ober, and Ober has a good history.

Yes, the Twins bullpen isn't very good. But if the metric we are working off is "are the White Sox any better," then you can say, sure, the White Sox have Grant Taylor, who is better than anyone the Twins have to offer, but otherwise, they are similar groups. The Twins should see fewer innings out of their pen, though, which should go a long way.

Both teams expect to see help from their prospect pool. The Twins happened to have the 2nd rated farm in baseball mid-season last year, while the White Sox sat at 17th. There is another ranking coming out soon, and the Twins will move down because Keaschall graduated off the list. Next year, top ten prospect Walker Jenkins will be off the list too, with Emmanuel Rodriguez potentially following him. 

I'm not comparing the Twins to the top of the division. I am saying they are significantly better than the White Sox. 

The end of Max Kepler

 Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco helped form the backbone of the Minnesota Twins for half a decade, and ere at the heart of the organization for longer than that. They were signed on international deals at about the same time, and moved through the minor leagues together, even living together in many stops. Now, with recent news of Kepler getting suspended for PEDs, well, they share that as well. 

The similarities don't continue. Polanco had his suspension earlier in his career, while still a member of the Twins. This allowed him to build back his reputation, both on and off the field. After playing the postseason hero on a couple of occasions in Seattle, he recently earned a 2 year, $40m contract with the Mets. He's now three contracts removed from his PED suspension, and it wouldn't be top of mind for anyone any more, until his old roommate was pegged for a violation as well.

Max Kepler took a one year deal with the Phillies last year, his first away from the Twins. He was vocal about a lack of playing time, thought that likely had a lot to do with it being his worst season as an MLB player. The Phillies acquired the player who started as the Twins' 4th outfielder, Harrison Bader, and Bader quickly eclipsed Kepler.

Kepler used to provide surplus value as a fielder, but that wasn't the case last year, and he's going to be 33 by the time he reaches the field next. His inconsistent bat has never justified a regular spot as a corner outfielder. If he signs now, he won't play until the end of the year. Will any contender think the Kepler will offer an upgrade as a reinforcement? One that won't be necessary  in the postseason?

It's going to be tough to find a contract for Kepler, especially one that he thinks he deserves. Kepler has always come off as a bit self absorbed (complaint about his time with the Phillies don't help) and if that read is accurate, he is going to have to swallow that pride to even have a chance in Major League Baseball again. The truth is, the combination of a bad season before a PED suspension ahead of his age 33 season means time is probably running out for him.

Baseball in tragedy.

 It's just a heavy time in the Twin Cities. The results of yesterday's death of Renee Good in south Minneapolis is a tragedy for any right thinking human being, regardless of where you assign culpability, as she was a mother who was killed on what is now an international stage. Tensions were already high, and instead of mourning and introspection that we often get after a tragedy, there has been retrenchment and finger pointing. Tension has only ratcheted up, and there is no backing down. Federal agents shot Ms. Good, and federal agents shot two people in Portland just a day later. 

This is in the wake of American military action in Venezuela, and threatened ongoing action elsewhere, raising anxiety for a lot of people, at home and abroad. Making it worse is the completely disparate opinion on literally every component of the matter. Yes, right minded people mourn for the children who lost for their mother, but that is where agreement ends. Beyond that, instead of trying to find a way forward, there is animosity between the state and federal government, the left and right on the political spectrum, and among the left and among the right. Everyone is yelling. 

We all just need a fucking break. 

I am grateful for the baseball offseason this time of year, because it allows for the break. I hope everyone is able to remove themselves from the constant stream of negative emotion in whatever means that is for you, if for a moment. I'm sorry if you were hoping that this would be an escape for you, but unfortunately like so many other writers and Minnesotans, writing is therapeutic. 

If you poke around the Twins blogosphere, you'll be struck by how negative it is. It does seem pretty silly, especially today, to be so hung up on bullpen construction in the wake of everything going on, but it is an escape. But the real world implications of what is going on in the world will come up, if not now, then in the season. If nothing else, I've thought about them.

For example, what is the reputation that Minneapolis has, and where does it stand in the mind of players and staff that may ultimately come to Minnesota? Will Pablo Day be different, when Target Field is full of Venezuelan flags and representatives, honoring the beloved Venezuelan starting pitcher? 

Today was the day for arbitration filing. The Twins only have one player that was unable to come to terms with the team - Joe Ryan. They filed $400,000 apart, which is a little more than half of the major league minimum. It's easy to look askance at the Pohlads and their cheap reputation, but that total isn't really that far off from most of the players that couldn't come to terms with their teams (except for Tarik Skubal, who was $13m higher than what the Tigers suggested).

It's a reminder that ownership, even of the good teams, is in it to make money, with less concern for their employees or fans individual enjoyment than we might hope. The owners are removed from the game, and from the plight of the people they are supposed to represent. We can talk about how much money players make, but they are still the little man, the employees of a larger, self interested organization.

Most importantly, they will be the ones wearing the jersey. the one's representing Minnesota in front of all of us and whatever media is observing it. This isn't a rallying cry for the Twins. It's a rallying cry for Minnesota. It's good to have something that brings us together, and to be represented by something other than violence and tragedy. Even if it's just a break. Take care, everyone. 

"I forgot how good he was" - Rich Becker

 In the mid-90s, the Twins were a sorry team. Middle School Me quickly fell out of love with the organization, and every player, save for former rookie of the year and World Series Champion Chuck Knoblauch seemed to be trash. Largely, that was true. After Kirby Puckett and Shane Mack (more on him on another day) Knoblauch was the only position player that regularly had more than three wins above replacement. 

Against all odds, the Twins were able to garner a Rookie of the Year in Marty Cordova, but otherwise, the outfield lacked a real star after Puckett and Mack. The infield, aside from Knoblauch, did as well. In that wasteland, Rich Becker's 1996 season should stand out in our memory more than it does.

Maybe it is because it followed the strike in 94 and 95, after which Puckett and Kent Hrbek were no longer playing, and it was the beginning of an era in which the Twins were, to say the least, adrift. Also, 1996 was Paul Molitor's first and best season with the Twins. Having a future Hall of Famer join the roster and do quite well is a significant headline stealer. With all of that said, Rich Becker's 1996 season was the best WAR of any non-Knoblauch player after 1992, and until Corey Koskie, Cristian Guzman and Torii Hunter surpassed his 4.3 wins in 2001. 

And for what it's worth, that shouldn't necessarily be seen as a left handed compliment to Becker, this whole "diamond in the rough" narrative for his '96 season. Another Twins center fielder put forth an exactly 4.3 win season - Puckett in '91. That's a good year! For what it's worth, Becker also had the second highest position player WAR in '97 as well, before he was sent to the Mets for Alex Ochoa, who was also a pretty good player, so long as he wasn't wearing a Twins uniform. 

Another reason it is likely easy to forget Becker was that much of his contribution was through defensive brilliance. The Twins, famously, have enjoyed some really good defensive center fielders before and after Becker, but he added value in the role as well. Still, his '96 campaign with a .291 average with an on base percentage of .372 allowed him to slot between Knoblauch and Molitor on most games. 

A major difference between the '90s Twins and the current Twins is that they got on base all the time. Becker wasn't an offensive standout by any stretch of the imagination, not even on that team, which by mid July had 5 regulars batting over .300, and nobody hitting more than 16 home runs. With a team that put the ball in play regularly, no power and abysmal pitching, a player that could move on the basepaths and play good defense was going to be especially valuable.

Which Rich Becker was. 

The Twins are healthy (for now)

 The Twins haven't been flashy this offseason, and given how many people expected the winter to go, that might be a good thing. Now with their stated goal of contention in 2026, there is growing discontent with the slow pace of the offseason, but if you ask me, the team has been moving at a brisker clip than normal. I take this as growth.

    

Well, OK, MLBTR commenter, maybe we are putting too much pressure on Eric Wagaman, but the Twins have shown that they are adapting to their own personalities. 

Injuries have been a massive part of the story for the Twins for the last several years. Payroll wsa certainly higher than it was relative to the league in 2022 and 23, but the year that they were the most successful, the Twins did something a bit differently: They stocked up on depth pieces. Michael A. Taylor and Donovan Solano played important roles, and were present for the playoff runs. 

Another trait that the Twins have had ever since Derek Falvey came aboard was a level of patience to wait out the entirety of the market and find deals on the players still available. The Twins have had some decent success in finding players late in the offseason: Carlos Santana, Carlos Correa, other players not named Carlos. It stands to reason that the Twins are going to hold on and take a bigger - not necessarily BIG, just bigger - stab as late as March. We should acknowledge this track record for our own self preservation. 

But there has been a lot more nibbling at the corners this winter than we saw in the last couple of years. The Twins are going to wait for prices to come down on players that they hope may be their primary option, but unlike the last couple of years, they are wasting no time in setting the floor on offense. After struggling through a few months, the Twins grabbed Jonah Bride and Kody Clemens in what can only be viewed as panicked acquistions. This year, those kinds of moves will hopefully be less urgent, thanks to recent acquisitions of Wagaman and Orlando Arcia. Not starters, but Major League players should the wheels start coming off. 

One can argue with the specific moves the Twins have made, but the strategy is clear. For a team beset with misfortune for many years in a row, the only time they have been truly successful is when they worked to set a floor, rather than to raise their ceiling. Before they can start raising the ceiling, the Twins, for once, are working on setting the foundation.

If the Twins hope to contend this year, they will need to remain healthy and see their young core take a huge step forward. Some pitchers are going to have to adapt to new roles. It's not a completely unreasonable hope, given the division the team plays in. Recent reports suggest good health all around, but they front office is working to ensure that the team doesn't fall out of contention at the first hint of trouble.