Women's basketball on the cusp

NIL has left an indelible mark on college sports. Nevertheless, the NCAA football championship game featured Indiana winning over Miami, and the Final Four saw Illinois weasel their way in. None of those football schools are regarded (not anymore, in Miami's case) as college royalty. In Illinois' (and yes, Connecticut's) case, they got to the Final Four despite not being a number one seed. There is more money, yes, but there is a lot to go around.

In women's basketball, there is also a remarkable level of NIL and endorsement money in the women's game as well, and the game has benefitted because of it. Well known players like Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese and Paige Bueckers have been able to stay through a full college career because the income level is enough that they don't yet need the professional salary. Their brand names in their college towns were enough. 

There is a talent gap in women's basketball that doesn't exist in the men's game. I don't mean that  to diminish the game, but rather to state that the best teams are simply a lot better than even the next tier. This year’s Final Four consisted of four No. 1 seeds; last year saw three—plus Connecticut. The game is at a peak in attention, but for now, there isn’t much parity.

I officiate high school basketball, and I get to watch boys and girls, and even more than the college resurgence, that has made me a fan of the women's game. And women's basketball is a different game. The rules are the same, but the strategies are evolving. Former players are now coaching and recognizing more effective ways to utilize talent.

Unlike men's basketball, size isn't as important in players. Since players are smaller and don't have the same reach, there is more space on the court. Ball handlers and facilitators are essential. Clark is tall. Physically, she could profile as a forward. What separates her from her peers is her handling and outside shooting. No need to jam everyone into the lane.

The game is different for girls and women, thanks to co. aches adapting strategy to the game, which helped to bring the modern stars to the forefront. The game is better for it. The players are now put in a position to play the best version of their games. and now have seen that good women's basketball draws fans too.

Getting the game right was stage one, and probably not one that was recognized early enough. Now that the game strategy is so good and player development at younger levels is better equipped to find the right skills, NCAA Women's basketball is on the cusp of much more entertaining tournaments. More girls are playing, and more former players are coaching and developing talent.

It’s only a matter of time before No. 1 seeds are no longer automatic favorites—because more teams will have elite talent.

The 2019-20 College basketball Belt

A few years ago, my friend and I kicked around an idea. What if there was a championship belt, like in boxing or wrestling, for college basketball? You maintain the belt until you were defeated. Ultimately, because of conference tournaments, the belt would always go to the winner of the Big Dance anyway, but it would be interesting to see who held it along the way. This year, so far, it is definitely taking some interesting journeys.
It started with last year's champions, the Virginia Cavaliers. UVA started strong, going undefeated until the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. They drew the team they defeated to reach the Final Four last year, the Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue won the game and the belt, the first time I can remember them having it.
You might think that's why I am resurrecting this bit. Alas, it is not. In fact, in embarrassing fashion, the Boilermakers lost the Belt very soon thereafter, losing their first conference road game to Nebraska, and successfully defending the Belt one time, against Northwestern.
As if it wasn't strange enough that the Belt was in Lincoln, Nebraska, it was just as strange that the Big Ten set their schedule the way they did. There were a pair of conference games before Christmas, followed by the resumption of non-conference play, so the Belt didn't stay in the Big Ten. No, Nebraska isn't very good this year, and they lost their next game... to North Dakota.
Yes, the Belt went from Virginia to North Dakota. As you might imagine, UND wasn't done with their non-con schedule either, and they didn't successfully defend their title for even one game, giving it up to Oregon State the very next game. Also not a place anyone would expect the Belt to go, but it's already reached the nadir.
The Beavers didn't keep the Belt in their first defense, either, but they did ensure that it would stay in the Pac 12 for the rest of the regular season. Utah holds the belt now, and it looks like it is on it's way back to a more deserving team. The next game to defend the Belt will be against #4 Oregon. 

The NCAA basketball "belt" Where is it?

A couple of years ago, I was talking to my friend Jon, speculating on what it would be like if college basketball passed around their championship like they do in combat sports. The championship, or the "belt" as it is in so many sports, transfers only when the top team is defeated, and then it goes to the side that bested them.
Given the tumult at the top of the rankings in a typical year, this seemed like a good sport to follow such a championship around. This year, with Purdue #3 in the country, it seems like a good year for me to try to track the belt.
Last year, for those that don't remember, the North Carolina Tar Heels defeated the Gonzaga Bulldogs to win the NCAA Tournament, so the belt starts with them.
Their first loss came in that PK80 tournament to the Michigan State Spartans, another blueblood in college basketball. Then, it changed hands only one more time. The belt is staying in the Big Ten until the tournament, as Ohio State, undefeated in the Big Ten to this point. There is a chance for Purdue to grab it on February 7th, assuming the Buckeyes don't lose it before then.

Butler: The gateway job

Everyone I know was fairly startled to hear that Thad Matta was being replaced as the head coach at Ohio State. He's been very successful, and there were no rumors of his impending departure, while the timing, early June, was also quite unusual. It was no surprise, however, to see the Buckeyes go to Indianapolis and Butler University to find their next coach, Chris Holtmann.
Since 1989, when Joe Sexson retired, the only coach not to leave Butler for a better hob (where "better job" means a larger conference or the NBA) was Brandon Miller, who departed with a medical condition, and did not return after one season on the job. Let's run through the list.
First, it was Barry Collier, who, after leading Butler to their first NCAA tournaments in 35 years, left the Bulldogs to take over at Nebraska. Thad Matta (small world) then took over for a year before headed off to Xavier, where his tenure was also brief before getting the job at Ohio State. Next was Todd Lickliter, who took a job with Iowa after reaching the Sweet 16 with the Bulldogs for the second time. Brad Stevens outdid Lickliter's accomplishments by bringing Butler to the NCAA Championship game, losing both times, but securing a job with the Boston Celttics. After Brandon Miller was unable to continue, we had Chris Holtmann, who is now with the Buckeyes.
How did this happen? How did Butler become such a breeding ground of excellent coaches? Some of it must certainly be the location, in the heart of where basketball in nearly a religion. Heck, Hinkle Fieldhouse, home of the Bulldogs, is where Hoosiers was filmed. Naturally, an Indiana school should be able to develop great basketball talent. Not only has this happened at the 3 major conference schools, but also at Indiana State, Valparaiso and Evansville, but never with the sustained success that Butler has.
Valparaiso might come closest, but one can point to their reliance on the Drew family for that. And Homer never left, like the coaches in Butler's lineage. A lot of credit needs to be attributed to Collier, I would posit. It's easy to recruit big names when you have some initial success, and it's even easier to hire good head coaches when you can simply promote the talented assistant's that your departing coach hired.
Collier had post season appearances in 3 of his final 4 seasons at Butler, and had two very good assistants in his last few years: Thad Matta and Todd Lickliter. When Lickliter took over, he hired young, eager eyed Brad Stevens. Brandon Miller came back to Butler, he was the first coach since Collier not to be directly promoted after serving on the staff the season before. He had been an assistant at Illinois, and brought Chris Holtmann from Gardner-Webb to coach. By that point, the lineage and tradition of success started when Collier took over had been established. It was easier to recruit talent.
Oh, and do you know who has hired the last three head coaches? Collier is the athletic director at Butler, and has been since 2006. Bob Collier might just be a coaching genius, and one that doesn't get enough credit.

(fake) Tournament excitement!

Not long ago, on the old site (I think), I postulated that the time was coming for a new conference in the upper Midwest. I thought that the emergence of 4 fairly capable teams in the Dakotas,as well as the relative size of a few other schools in the northern Plains, made it possible for a regional conference to emerge in the area. Of course, part of this was simply the odd fact that North Dakota was in the Big Sky, while the other three schools were n the Summit. North Dakota has plans too move into the Summit in two years, but frankly, I think a more local conference is still in the best interest for all teams in consideration.
First, the lynchpin. I've long advocated for the move of a Minnesota school to Division 1, if only for basketball. After St. Cloud, UMD and Minnesota State have all balked at making the move despite their conference rivals in the Dakotas and at Omaha making the transition, it has become clear for me that it would have to be a smaller school taking the bold move of entering the world of Division 1 basketball. At 10,500 students, the next largest institution is St. Thomas, which is comfortably larger than places like Wake Forest, in the ACC.
So we will add St. Thomas and North Dakota to the Summit, and work at making it more geographically sound, and getting the membership at a tight 12 members. The first thing to do is swap out the two schools in Indiana, IUPUI and IUPFW, trading them into the Horizon League and acquiring Green Bay and Milwaukee. Oral Roberts is the furthest away, in Oklahoma. They can move to the more regionally appropriate Southland conference, which they have tried to join before, and would again if there isn't a better northern option for the school. There are two Iowa schools that fit in with what we are trying to do, in that they are not major conference members, but are local, generally basketball focused schools. Northern Iowa and Drake would be good additions to our new Upper Midwest conference.
That's 9 schools accounted for. Omaha is an obvious choice to include in this conference, bringing us to 10. The easy choice is then to keep Western Illinois and Denver and make no additional changes. That said, I am trying to make the best choices for all teams across college basketball. I look at Denver and realize that there aren't many other schools out there. There is Colorado, which is the Pac 12, and Air Force and Colorado State in the Mountain West. Denver isn't big enough for either conference. The other school is Northern Colorado, in the Big Sky. Like North Dakota, they are far removed from the other Big Sky teams, and having a travel buddy in Denver would be a boon for the small school. Western Illinois has a glut of options, and would likely welcome a move to the Ohio Valley Conference.
To Recap, the new Upper Midwest Conference would be, alphabetically:
Denver
Drake
Green Bay
Milwaukee
North Dakota
North Dakota State
Northern Colorado
Northern Iowa
Omaha
Saint Thomas
South Dakota
South Dakota State
Sounds good, right? I like it. Let's get to the fun part that recently crossed my mind. This conference would need an automatic bid, so which school would earn that bid in 2017? First, I looked at the regular season RPIs of the teams in our new conference, to determine how they "finish" in the regular season, before being seeded in the conference tournament. I took the average number and assigned that to St. Thomas.
The finish:
North Dakota State
South Dakota
Omaha
Green Bay
Northern Iowa
North Dakota
South Dakota State
Saint Thomas
Denver
Northern Colorado
Milwaukee
Drake
I think there would be a logical expectation that the teams from outside the original Summit League would be strongest, but instead, it was three Summit League teams that finished at the top of the heap. The tournament would be:
Saint Thomas v Denver, winner v North Dakota State
Northern Iowa v Drake, winner v Green Bay
South Dakota State v Northern Colorado, winner v Omaha
North Dakota v Milwaukee, winner v South Dakota
The next step, as is usually the case, was to simulate the tournament. To do so, I used a random method for Saint Thomas, and used WhatifSports for all other games. In the first round, Denver knocked off St. Thomas, Drake upset Northern Iowa 83-69, South Dakota State beat Northern Colorado 72-61 and Milwaukee, just like in the Horizon this year, pulled an upset, but this time they beat North Dakota 83-70.
The second round had fewer surprises. North Dakota State topped Denver 67-56, Green Bay walloped Drake 74-58, and South Dakota crushed Milwaukee to end their run, 65-45. The only upset, and the tightest game of the entire tournament, involved South Dakota State topping Omaha by 2, 81-79, to mirror the Summit League title game.
The semifinals didn't go as planned, with both games registering as mild upsets. Green Bay topped North Dakota State 73-67 and South Dakota State beat their in-state rival by 10, 76-66. It was the Phoenix that ultimately earned the berth in the Big Dance of my dreams, with a 84-79 win against the Jackrabbits of South Dakota State.
This year, North Dakota and SDSU actually did end up with tournament berths, a 15 and 16 seed respectively. With smaller conferences, the Committee leans especially hard on RPI, Green Bay was higher than both of the schools that made it this year, so at the very least, they would be a 15, I would imagine, perhaps even a 14.
Here's hoping we can have a local conference sometime soon. The first step will be a Minnesota school finally having the courage to make the jump up to D1.

This is how good Kansas is

Kansas State is ranked number 24 or 25 in the country, depending on the poll that you subscribe to. They jumped into the polls for the first time this season. What were the results that pushed them over the edge?

That's right, last week, the Wildcats won at home against the unsurpassed worst team in the Big 12, but was ranked on the back of their road loss to Kansas. Not many teams can cause their opponents to move up in the rankings by beating them, but the Jayhawks have that effect.

Iowa is not the team they were the year before

Last year, around this time I was treated to a game in Iowa City between the Drake and Iowa women's teams. Iowa has had a fairly decent run in the past couple of years, making the NCAA tournament the last 8 consecutive years, and they looked like the more capable team that night at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

On Sunday, the tables were turned, and it was Drake that stymied the Hawkeyes. The game was in Des Moines, and the win was a 5 point victory for the Bulldogs, but it was still a sign that this Hawkeye team, despite some early season triumphs, is not nearly the team it's been in recent years.

Most Hawkeyes fans acknowledged that this season would be a bit of a let down after a veteran core graduated and moved on, but their work so far this season must be a disappointment. Not only have they lost to Drake, but dropped another game to South Dakota State, another opponent that the tournament committee won't be able to shrug off come selection time.

While much of the issue with the team can be attributed to the loss of some senior leaders like Whitney Jennings, some members of the team are not developing or contributing as much as Hawkeye's fans should hope. For every Tania Davis or Ally Disterhoft, who ARE contributing and excelling in their role, there is a Chase Coley, now a junior relegated to the end of the bench. Despite the talent level being lower with this iteration of the team, Coley has seen her playing time reduced, even after being the second leading scorer a year ago. Alexa Kastanek is another upper classman who has seen her role on the team reduced significantly, appearing for only 2 minutes in Des Moines, as her role has been reduced progressively since a 1-10 night against UCLA around Thanksgiving.

The game against Drake was a perfect example of a team still trying to figure itself out.  There were two sources of offense, Disterhoft and Megan Gustafson, who accounted for 44 of their team's 76 points. The rest of the team shot less than 28% from the field,, with the point guard Davis managing to only hit 1/9 in the field to lead the way. They obviously carried their frustration to other aspects, allowing 81 points to what should have been an inferior opponent. 

The Big Ten regular season will begin in a week, and Iowa's schedule will get much more difficult. A leader needs to emerge from within, otherwise this will be the most difficult season the Hawkeyes have faced in a decade.