Thus far, Tom Pohlad has been a man of his word. After saying they were going for it before the season, they snapped up a couple of free agents (the market was bare by then). They attempted to remain in contention by buying at the deadline. Now, he confirmed that the Twins' payroll will increase in 2027. Many fans are rightfully skeptical, given the tradition of Pohlads dicking over Minnesotans, but this specific fan wants to know.... what does that even mean?
There is a question of valuation, certainly. Pohlad didn't say how much the payroll would increase. Would it be naturally, through payroll increases via arbitration? Or are they expecting to add free agents to fill targeted rolls or simply to be big names to draw to the ballpark? Or is Pohlad simply suggesting that he believes there will be a salary floor next year?
All reporting indicates that the proposals for a payroll floor indicate a payroll higher than what the Twins are projected at for next year. If this is all that Pohlad is anticipating, then well, that is typical Pohlad business. An increased payroll won't even be that beneficial, since a third to a half of all teams would need to raise the payroll as well, all without more talent in the game.
Lets hope that the Twins are looking at targeted investments, then. The Twins are going to be locked in next year with Byron Buxton, Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, Kaelen Culpepper, as well as Kody Clemens, and perhaps Austin Martin in the infield. That leaves catcher and first base as primary options. Ryan Jeffers is the best catcher on the market this year, and may desire to return to Target Field. First basemen aren't typically that expensive. There is ongoing debate as to whether or not Royce Lewis deserves another shot at figuring out his bat.
Regardless, it appears the offensive side of the ball is going to be fairly inexpensive, and there aren't many obvious spots for large investments. The bullpen saw investment at the deadline, and a few arms may be added, but like first base, and even more so, relief pitchers aren't terribly expensive. The starting pitching depth might even be a route to patching bullpen holes. Joe Ryan, Taj Bradley, Dean Kremer, Bailey Ober, Zebby Matthews, Conor Prielipp, Pablo Lopez, Mick Abel, Kendry Rojas and David Festa will all have a shot at the bullpen. A case can be made for finding an A+ #1 starter, but good luck finding one on the market this year.
I suspect that Pohlad is trying to pull a fast one, as usual, and the scenario is that he expects a salary floor, and the payroll will increase by taking on bad contracts from teams that know the Twins are obligated to reach a minimum salary. There aren't any expensive problems on the Twins roster right now.
If the lockout is solved without the salary floor, I think the answer is payroll through depth, if Pohlad is serious. Ryan Jeffers is a catcher in an organization with a bumper crop of upcoming catching prospects. This is his time to cash in, and the Twins don't have the need to give him the contract that he should want - something long term, as his knees aren't going to last forever, I could see them looking for a veteran to pair with Victor Caratini, which, again, isn't a high priced commodity, but it makes sense in the current roster make up.
Jeffers would be the only logical big name acquisition to substantially increase payroll. They will likely go with rookie scale contract players in several rotation spots as well as several spots in the lineup, and this is exactly the roster they should go with, given their position. Without Jeffers or Josh Bell on the payroll, and perhaps without Trevor Larnach either, the payroll starts to trickle down. Arbitration and patched in depth may bring the whole payroll back up a bit, but the only real logical way to get a big bump in salary is with a salary floor.
And that wouldn't be particularly impressive or impactful.
