It is OK to enjoy the 2026 Minnesota Twins

 It's hard to convince Minnesotans and people that have watched the Twins for any length of time that clutch hitting and momentum aren't real things in baseball. Against all odds, the team has regularly played below their projections for the last couple of years, all while falling well below the expected "clutch" metric for years. These are both things that should even out, that haven't. The Twins are historically unfortunate, or bad vibes are a tangible thing that can be applied specifically to the Minnesota Twins. 

It's undoubtedly the reason that you see a consistent drumbeat of negative perception from fans, both local and national, as well as the human writers behind it. There is Aaron Gleeman at the Athletic, Twins Daily, even Twinkie Town locally, and I recently saw a MLB Trade Rumors poll that had the Twins as the least likely team to with the AL Central. That's rough. 

Meanwhile, Fangraphs has the Twins finishing nearly .500, and ahead of the Guardians and White Sox. 

I know I've mentioned this a few times in the past, but, let's summarize my general opinion of the offseason and the state of the team before we look ahead to the start of the season: The problem with the Twins is the owners, and their unsettled winter only made things worse. The bullpen sell off was not as great an issue for me as it was for others, as bullpens are a luxury for good teams. If the Twins are good in other areas this season, then we can grouse about the lack of arms to close out games. Of course, if the Twins ARE good this year, it will likely be on the backs of some players that came to the team at the deadline last year. And that goes to my final point: the Twins would be widely viewed as an up and coming break out candidate, thanks to their young MLB talent and high minors prospects, if it weren't for the fact that they were in the postseason just a couple of years ago. 

I think the utter lack of expectations is going to be a gift for the Twins this year. Derek Shelton is coming to an organization that is older and more professional than the Pirates team he managed for the last few years. For all the lack of payroll, there are still anchors like Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton, and players that have a great pedigree on the cusp of breaking out, like Brooks Lee, Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis and Luke Keaschall. There are top prospects in the rotation, like newly acquired Taj Bradley and Mick Abel. When things start to derail, as they always do, there are plenty of players that project to be more than just warm bodies that will take roster spots. 

James Outman made the team after a good spring and a lack of player options, but Alan Roden was better, but was sent to St. Paul because he still had an option. He'll be up sooner or later. Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez and Walker Jenkins will also find their way into the lineup this season as well, and each time one of those guys appear, it will be exciting. 

Baseball is at it's best when it is quirky, and you get to know the personalities of the players involved. Over the last couple of years, the sheer star power and corporate polish of Carlos Correa were dominant elements of the public facing side of the team. Byron Buxton is the shining star of the team, and he has a pretty decent sense of humor. I'm looking forward to seeing more from the players on the roster. I mean, Brooks Lee's got to be at least a little bit goofy, right? He looks too much like Nick Punto not to be. 

If we can get out of our own way for a bit, if we can look past our anger and frustration about the way the Pohlads have run the team, from their botched sale and front office mismanagement, and instead appreciate the players, the coaches, and importantly, the people working hard in the stadium to make the game experience as enjoyable as they can, this can be a fun team. I think they will be looser than the past couple of years have seen, and that might even help them overcome their projections. 

I'm looking forward to the season, like I do every year, even after offseasons when, once again, I swear off the organization. This season is going to be weightless, and I intend to enjoy it. 

Avoiding the annual pessimism trap

Every year during Spring Training, we look ahead to next season, and we get a full buffet of sites and notoriously smart people discussing their projections. Projections in baseball have a reputation for being more reliable, because statistics are so good, monitoring is so thorough, and there are so few variables during individual at bats. The Twins have failed to match their projections for the last couple of years, and now, projections and sentiment are very down on the Twins. 

I understand how sentiment has come to the spot it is in. I've made it clear that I think the poor business skills of the Pohlads has led the offseason not proceeding the way anyone wanted it to. That said, given the current roster, and despite a pretty awful spring, I think the Twins and fans do have reason to hope in 2026. I say this knowing, again, that the more hope we have, the swifter the kick to the nuts comes from Fate. 

Functionally, how is the Twins team different in 2026 from the one in 2025? Obviously, the bullpen was obliterated. Carlos Correa isn't there, and Pablo Lopez will miss the season. "Carlos Correa isn't there" is a statement you could have said at many points during the last couple of years as well. He was either hurt or a shadow of himself. Pablo Lopez also missed a great deal of the past couple of seasons. This year, the Twins will be able to plan around it. A good bullpen is a luxury that good teams have. If we are talking about the bullpen this season, that is a reflection on how well things are going elsewhere. 

The Twins problem last year was an inability to score runs. They couldn't put together good at bats consecutively. This is a problem known as poor sequencing, and most statisticians will tell you that this is something that will work itself out with enough samples. It hasn't for most of the last decade. The Twins are significantly worse at the plate in late and close situations, or with runners in scoring position. I'm all for dingers, and I don't mind the three true outcome players, however the Twins haven't been getting two of the outcomes, and striking out too often when it matters. One way to ward that scenario off is adding more complete hitters to the lineup.

And they did. The Twins will have Josh Bell and Victor Caratini taking regular at bats, and we should see a full season of Luke Keaschall and Austin Martin. The Twins have been boring on offense, and Jhoan Duran's entrance was even more exciting, because it meant the Twins actually scored some runs in that game. 

There is also the prospect of full seasons of Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Brooks Lee, all former top prospects who have seen their shine come off. Part of it is injuries, part of it is pitchers adapting to their abilities. All three still have natural talents, and none are older than 28 - the year that Michael Cuddyer finally broke out. With the pedigree those three have, and a chance to make their mark, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss all three players. The projections have always overestimated their production. Why can't they, for once, underestimate it?

And if they don't, Walker Jenkins, Emmannuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Kaelen Culpepper and Alan Roden are waiting in the wings. 

Those are all hopeful thoughts that I don't believe are outlandish. But let's talk about a couple things that are firmer truths. First, the rotation, even without Pablo Lopez is just fine. Joe Ryan is good. Bailey Ober is healthy, and before last year, you could say that Ober and Ryan were on par. If Ober is healthy, in the AL Central he is a good #2 pitcher. I'm not sure what else Simeon Woods-Richardson needs to do to get taken off the wishy-washy is he/is he not in the rotation. Lopez getting hurt seemed to have done it this year, however two years pitching to an ERA just a skosh above 4.00 is a perfectly reliable mid to back of the rotation pitcher. He has been good for over 20 starts a year for the last two years. Just pencil him in.

The Twins have a bumper crop of pitching prospects. Mick Abel, Andrew Morris, Connor Prielipp and Kendry Rojas are the top names that won't make the roster. Taj Bradley and Zebby Matthews will make the roster. Their numbers haven't been as good as SWRs, but their metrics are better than the actual numbers. That's not a bad rotation. It's at least middle of the pack for Twins rotations this century.

Most importantly, the Twins play in the AL Central. The Tigers are the top dog in the division, but the rest of the division is surmountable. That means that if things go a bit awry for the Tigers, it could be anyone. Even the Twins, with their modest roster.

If all those things come together, then we will be able to fret over the bullpen.  It's not crazy to think that they could.