Ownership change needed.

One thing I always note about the Twins is that, regardless of how bad things might seem, it isn't as bad as it could get. The Twins are playing poorly, they have suffered injuries, and they have an ownership group with cash flow issues and a reluctance to spend money. But it isn't as bad as it could be! No, that title belongs to the Pirates.

Pittsburgh is a fantastic sports town, willing to support their teams with fans in stands and money for stadiums. They play in a central division that is every bit as wide open as the American League is, at least for the past few years. They develop talented players, draft fairly well, and get rid of all that talent as soon as they start making any money. 

The Pirates have one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, higher only than the Rays and A's, currently playing in Minor League stadiums, the White Sox, who are undergoing a massive overhaul and rebuild and the Marlins who, frankly, are similar to the Pirates, but different. Miami isn't as big a sports town because, well, beaches, but Pittsburgh is. The Pirates stand out like a sore, underfunded thumb. 

And some might complain about market size for Pittsburgh as it relates to the rest of baseball, and yes, Pittsburgh is a down on it's luck town that is on the smaller end of baseball cities, however the city itself s larger than Milwaukee, Cleveland and Kansas City, none of the teams that were listed as having payroll problems above. I'm not saying that the Pirates should be at the top of the payroll tables, but I am saying that they should at least be in line with other teams, and sustain payroll when they start to get better, right?

For as much grousing as Minnesota has rightfully had about the Pohlads over the year, there is no question that Bob Nutting, owner of the Pirates is worse. Instead of a rising team looking to build around Paul Skenes, who is now in his second year, people are already beginning speculate on the Pirates trading him before he reaches even into arbitration. They have talent incoming, a depressed payroll, and instead of augmenting the roster, they are looking to cut costs even further.

 The Twins are frustrating because of their inability to seize opportunities. The Pirates under Nutter are indifferent to whether the opportunities come. The Pohlads have proven to have bad luck in their last two TV deals (before the RSN model really exploded, and then immediately after it popped) and have debt and cash flow issues as a result. Nutting made a business decision to not fund his team. 

The Pohlads are getting out, sooner or later. I hope Nutting does soon too.

Despair

 

Just a week ago, the Twins were in the hunt for a Wild Card spot. Sure, they had some issues against the teams from Texas, but the losses were tough luck losses, and a reason to be frustrated, but not discouraged. They were close. They were still fighting. And then they played the Reds and Brewers, over the last week, going 1-5 and not looking particularly competitive. Whatever instinct there was not to panic is gone now. Actually, panic is already in the past. It just feels hopeless. 

The Twins are getting regularly blown out now. The offense that was an issue most of the season is 8/9ths dead. Byron Buxton is playing out of his mind, to no avail. The starting pitching is struggling, and the bullpen is worse. They aren't doing anything right, at the moment. If you want the team to be buyers at the deadline, then what do you address? How? Everything needs work. 

At the beginning of the season, there was so much optimism about the development of the young core. Injuries are one thing, but in retrospect, a more troubling sign is that the Twins were looking for a left handed outfield hitter if they were going to be buyers. You know, like Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner. Both players have been part of the roster for a while now, but neither has had the breakout anyone anticipated. Had the Twins been in on that secret even sooner than the rest of us? 

The Twins are buoyed by their 13 game winning streak. Had they merely played .500 during that stretch, they would, at this point, only be better than the White Sox in the American League. Are the Twins and our fans too prone to leaning into these long streaks? Are the Twins a legitimately bad team, or do you want to pin the blame on the disruption to the pitching staff? A devastating injury or disruption to the staff almost always seems to precede a Twins collapse.

But never mind that. The diagnosis is grim, but what about the prognosis? The prescription? Frankly, with as clustered as baseball is in the standings, there aren't many sellers, and the prices are going to be high. In a normal year, I would be awaiting some windfalls for trades of players like Willi Castro and Chris Paddack. Heck, if the Twins really think that the left handed hitting needs improvement, Larnach or Wallner could go, for all I care. A full reset with a Byron Buxton trade would potentially leave the system flush with talent.

This is not a normal year, however. The Twins are up for sale, and despite Rocco Baldelli apparently having his contract picked up for next year, the entire front office is fighting for their jobs. A tactical reset, a full rebuild, whatever you call it, Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll are giving up on this iteration of the team. That is not how you prove your worth to a new owner.

It may not be the best for the future of the team, or make much logical sense, but for Falvey and Zoll, it is best for them to double down on this team. Pablo Lopez WILL come back. Zebby Matthews WILL come back. Maybe Connor Gillaspie will stabilize the bullpen. Rely on the definite, but make things happen.

The Rockies and Marlins are the best bets to be sellers, and the best potential partners for the Twins. Take a swing and grab the best players -- again, it doesn't matter their position, really -- on both teams. RP Jake Bird and corner infielder Ryan McMahon would both help the Twins from the Rockies. Marlins 2b Otto Lopez and OF Dane Meyers have been better than Jonah Bride, at least.

Do something. Standing pat as the team slides further isn't fun for fans or players, obviously, but also doesn't play well for your next employer. Shake up the team ASAP and try to pull out of this funk.

Deadline news is already filling timelines.

Nationally, the baseball world is talking about the Rafael Devers trade, and fans are beginning to settle into trade deadline season. Locally,the Twins are struggling, perhaps in need of a jolt, all while playing the Cincinnati Reds. Taken all together, the elements of this weeks baseball headlines can belong in their own boxcars in the same train of thought. 

There are many articles already out there, depending on the sports outlet of your choosing, suggesting which players might be on the market, who the buyers might want to buy and the price it might take to buy them. The national writers are telling us about the players the Twins could go after to bolster the at times anemic offense. The local writers are telling us not to hold our breath.

The last couple of years have been uninspiring, and trades have been few and far between. The money has been an issue, and if he debt is as reported, monetary investment at the deadline is unlikely. The pitching staff seems to be getting picked off man by man, but prices for starting pitchers have been extremely expensive from a prospect standpoint. It's easy to see why the local writers don't seem to think Minnesota will do anything.

Lets consider the more optimistic version, though. You know, the one of people that haven't spent their best years trying to find a reason for hope in Minnesota men's sports. The Twins need bats, which are generally less expensive in both prospects or monetary expenditure. A solid hitter would likely play in the corners, somewhere, alleviating someone like Trevor Larnach against lefties, or simply providing depth so Willi Castro doesn't have to do everything. And played correctly, will address the team's greatest weakness all season, run production.

A look at the Reds is a good lesson for the Twins, regardless of how they choose to proceed. The trade that Twins fans still look back on with derision was the one that sent multiple prospects to the Reds for Tyler Mahle. Mahle struggled with injury for his entire time in Minnesota, while Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have played on the Major League Roster. 

While the execution wasn't great. the damage was also not that great. Mahle has been good with the Rangers now that he has his health, showing that the Twins probably sought the right guy. Meanwhile, Steer and Encarnacion-Strand haven't been all that revolutionary. Steer has been better, even as this year has been down, and it seems unlikely he would have been able to leapfrog Royce Lewis at third. Corner Outfielders have starters, and simpy need someone to augment those spots, and Steer isn't that kind of player. What I am saying is that neither would have really changed the Twins roster had they stayed in Minnesota. Not for the better (or the worse), anyways. 

But Mahle would have helped in 2023, with health. Sure, money might not be there, but the Twins are fighting in a sloppy AL Central once again, and the front office, even with the headwinds against them, should try to be bold.

And Minnesotans should probably prepare to be disappointed. 

Twins send Jorge Alcala to the Red Sox

Jorge Alcala has really good stuff, and has previously been a well regarded lynchpin in the back end of the Twins bull pen. Also, every major collapse in recent memory seems to have one thing in common: Alcala. It was probably time to move on.

It wasn't just a "vibes" thing either. Alcala has the highest ERA of pitchers with as many innings as he has pitched, and he has been used quite frequently. The Twins picked up Joey Wentz off the waiver wire today, and looking at the roster, particularly the bullpen, the writing was on the wall for Alcala.

For me, the writing was a little blurry, however. I assumed Alcala would be designated for assignment and placed on waivers. There is enough ability that I thought he may get claimed, but he owned a contract that was more than what Ty France is making, so it also seemed possible he would simply be shown the door. Instead, the Red Sox jumped the line and gave up a prospect for Alcala, and will take on his contract. 

The Twins received a low level prospect known more for an impressive bat flip than for anything he has done on the field. He lay outside of the top 30 prospects for the Red Sox, and isn't expected to get to the top of the Twins charts either. Nevertheless, this trade is probably a winner for the Twins, who now have the tiniest bit of wiggle room in their payroll.

The Twins needed to do something in the wake of two injuries on the rotation and a disaster of a game on Tuesday night. They have had disruptions to the pitching staff lead directly to collapses before. This year, it was imperative that the organization not stand pat. Even though Alcala was at the fringe of the roster, and this is a bit of addition by subtraction, I think it counts as a first step. Alcala came to the Twins with Gilberto Celestino in the Ryan Pressley trade -- he's been with the team for a while. Letting a veteran go is a wake up call for everyone. Patience isn't unlimited, and players can be moved if it makes the team better.

Or put more powerfully, players WILL be moved if it makes the team better. The Twins got lucky to get a return for Alcala. The next steps will need to be more substantive. 

The importance of a good outlook.

 

It's hard not to spiral these days. A huge part of that is the algorithmic basis that so many of us get our news. We click on something, and it just feeds us more of the same. The initial click is usually some provocative headline, leading us down a rabbit hole that leads us towards more headlines, more short videos, more clips about whatever scares us the most, telling us that this thing is an even greater threat than we thought and we need to DO something about it. It's the cable news of the 2010s, but now on steroids (and ketamine). 

One of my coping methods to this world we live in is to seek sources that aren't prone to releasing click bait headlines, people that can break things down without declaring something being the end of the world, making my day even darker. I'm under no misconception about bad things being out there, but there is no value in viewing them as even worse than they actually are. 

Clickbait headlines are certainly a pervasive feature of sports media coverage, and anyone who follows the Twins is surely well aware of the "worst case scenario brand of coverage of the team, particularly when it comes to the coverage of the ownership and their decision making processes. There are Twins news sites that thrive on this type of coverage and forums exist just to break down the coverage.

This is where I refer back to my other coping methods. It's not as grim as most fans would have you believe, despite problems. A reason that there has been little outlay for free agents has something to do with the bumper crop of prospects that the team is confident will emerge in the next few years. The Twins are competitive in the AL Central, even without spending all that money. 

There have been a bunch of headlines out there about the Twins ownership situation. There were seemingly conflicting reports, that some reports stated that local investors were turned off by the price and cash flow, while others from the organization have claimed that potential buyers have been doing their diligence at Target Field, and a sale was expected to be completed. Those caught in the negative whirl wind suggest that the Twins are fabricating these stories. A perfectly reasonable explanation is that the potential buyers are not local investors. The Ishbias weren't, why would other candidates be?

An important part of coping with the negative headlines is not sticking your head in the sand and recognizing that "not as bad" doesn't mean "good". The Twins have had generally good seasons for the last few years, however what sticks in most of our memories are the collapses. They collapsed in 2022, after Wes Johnson left mid-season to return to college. They collapsed last year when Joe Ryan went down with an injury.

Ryan had the same injury that Pablo Lopez has now suffered. The Twins are comfortable with dealing with injuries to their position players. As is often noted, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are always hurt. Disruptions to the rotation are significantly more impactful. It's important to avoid getting lost in worst case scenarios and doom spiraling, but this exact scenario has played out before. 

The Twins do have more experienced depth in the rotation this year, and are more likely to be able to withstand Lopez's absence over the next couple of months, and they also have the ability to make changes to the roster before the trade deadline. They don't have to add another ace to the rotation, because there are easier moves to advance the offense. The team needs to do something now before the hypothetical spiral turns into an on field spiral. 

There may be bad news on the way, but there is a way through. That's the other way out of the reinforcing negative news cycle: make sure you are aware of the potential solutions to the various problems. The Twins have one. I hope they find it.

Twins welcome return of superstar

 Yeah, sure, Byron Buxton returned to the Twins roster today for the first time since he suffered a concussion, and his 10th inning hit and runs were huge factors in helping the Twins win. 

But that headline was referring to Carlos Correa. The real Carlos Correa is back! Since he returned from the concussion, he has an OPS of 1.081, his glove has been good, and his defense against the Mariners was a factor in the victory. Also a big factor was his go ahead homer in the 10th inning. 

He's back! Carlos Correa is back! And Buxton too, I guess. 

The Twins have a long way to the bottom

Conflicting reports came out in the last couple of days about the ongoing process of selling the Twins. Dan Hayes of the Athletic reported that the process has stalled, with potential buyers balking at the Pohlad's lofty price, the collapsed TV revenue and the debt that remains on the books. Alternately, Phil Miller from the Star Tribune refutes that report, with sources saying there have been potential buyers doing diligence, taking tours of Target Field, and that the process is now closer to the end than the beginning.

Whichever of these reports you put the most wait in is probably a good measuring stick for your approach to the team, to the media and perhaps even life in general. Cynical, probably younger and more online people not only have grown to appreciate Hayes' sense of humor and social media prowess, and a general disproval of the Pohlads seems to run through the veins of this group. Then there are those who still rely on legacy media and remember that the Pohlads brought Minnesota our most recent men's championship (Thank you ladies, for actually being able to win stuff in multiple sports), and generally can't believe how much money athletes make these days. Pessimism and optimism. The duality of Man. And Twins Fans.

I'm guessing it's somewhere between the two. The original slate of potential buyers probably has tucked tail and ran away, not unlike the Ishbia brothers, but there are also likely to be some potential investors who see an opportunity. The Pohlads, given the the team situation as well as the way sales have been going lately, probably are asking for too much money, but if they are really interested in selling, they will find a way. That family is as resilient as a cockroach.

All of this tumult, and the on field product is out there earning their debt inducing paychecks. The Twins are back up into second place in the AL Central, in position for a wild card spot, and trailing only the league's best Detroit Tigers for control of the division. This is all without much investment in the team over the last couple of years. One thing that unifies readers of Dan Hayes or Phil Miller is a readiness to point to all of the flaws in the organization, but with the noise around ownership and limited resources, the Twins must have something going for them, because it could be so much worse.

This week is probably the perfect week to have information about a potential sale come out, because it gets people like me to write posts like this. They are currently playing in Tampa, where the Rays are playing in the Yankee's spring training facility after their own stadium, Tropicana Field, was ravaged by Hurricane Helene last fall. They will fly to Seattle (thanks for that, MLB) for a weekend series, and then go to Sacramento, where the A's are also playing in a AAA facility because their owner was so desperate to leave Oakland, he didn't wait for their new facility in Las Vegas to open. 

Regardless of what happens with the sale, the Twins will continue to play home games at a beautiful outdoor facility, where the only natural disaster the Twins have to worry about is the penchant for exploding UCLs in this market. The Twins aren't moving, and there isn't a stadium issue to extort the team over. In this regard, the Twins are sitting pretty. 

They aren't paying for free agents, and looking at the Yankees, Mets, Phillies and Dodgers, you would be justified in thinking that spending into contention is the only way to win. Perhaps it is, but maybe not on player salary. The next highest payrolls belong to the Blue Jays, Rangers, Astros, Braves, Red Sox, Padres and Angels. Only the Astros and Padres are above .500, but only the Padres have a better record than the Twins. 

The Twins invested heavily in scouting under the Terry Ryan and Andy MacPhail eras, while the shift has been to analytics with Derek Falvey. The team has mostly drafted well, and has mostly traded well. The investments in the leadership and analytics (both through scouting and statistics), as well as training on the farm have led to a sustained ability to contend. This is why the Twins are the Twins and other teams in similar environments, like, say, the Pirates, well, they are the Pirates. 

It's certainly not perfect here in Minnesota, but a road trip like this one, and an assessment of the ownership situation are all decent reminders that things could always be worse.