Inevitable collapse

 Growing up a Twins fan, the rest of what would become the AL Central have always been rivals. Two teams have always stood out, Cleveland and the Chicago White Sox. The Tigers came over from the East when the divisions broke into three, but weren't good for a while when that happened. The Royals were never any good, and didn't incur a wrath in me. 

Cleveland was regularly the team at the top of the division, and seemed like the most direct competition for the Twins for the first decade or so, but then, when I happened to be living in northwest Indiana, surrounded by a bunch of Sox fans, Chicago won the World Series. Insufferable.

With that background in mind, I would like to think that this post doesn't stem from jealousy, but it sure might. What I want to know is why collapse is assumed for the Twins, but not the White Sox? Make no mistake, each team has the record they have deserved. The White Sox have been a better team than the Twins this year. The Twins, though, aren't where they are at because of some good fortune.

I'm not talking about the perception of the Twins or White Sox, I am talking about their actual position. The White Sox, if the season ended today, would be the AL Central champions, and the Twins are only a couple of games out of the final Wild Card spot, and 4.5 games behind Chicago. 

Despite there being only a 4.5 game difference in the standings, the narrative around the teams is markedly different. There was a recent piece on The Athletic or ESPN that reevaluated preseason predictions. Now, a quarter of the writers thought the White Sox were a playoff team. Nobody thought the Twins were going to be a playoff team. This was written around Memorial Day, I recall, because at the time, the Twins were in playoff position. 

The Sox are a young team, younger than the Twins. Minnesota had a playoff team in 2023, before ownership decided not to invest in the team. More importantly, the young talent in the organization failed to launch, and the starting pitching couldn't sustain the same level of success and health over the next two seasons. Collapses resulted. Are Twins collapses just assumed now?

The greatest bugaboo in those two seasons was a reliance on young players that couldn't come through. Edouard Julien is in Colorado, Matt Wallner is in St. Paul. Brooks Lee is hitting. Austin Martin gives good at bats. Royce Lewis tinkered and came back stronger. Kody Clemens is now in year two of what seems like a peak. Luke Keaschall is settling in after a slow start. The Twins are also more willing to lean on veterans on hot streaks, like Ryan Kreidler and Tristan Gray. They have a new manager whispering different things to the players. 

Like I said, the White Sox have been better this year, but they also don't have many players with a sustained track record of success either. Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery and of course Muneteka Murukami are in their break out seasons. Why are they assumed to be less likely to fall off in the second half?

The Twins have a better rotation than the White Sox, even with injuries. The White Sox have a better closer with Seranthony Dominguez, and Grant Taylor has been a developmental success, but the rest of their bullpen is just as cobbled together as the Twins'. All in, I would prefer the Twins' arms to those of the White Sox. 

To my eye, there isn't a significant talent gap between the Twins and White Sox, and I think a big reason why the Sox better than expected start is embraced while the Twins' is not is because of the perception I mentioned earlier. The White Sox have spent recent years in the baseball wilderness. Any success is going to be embraced. The Twins problems seem self inflicted, torching good will after finally winning in the playoffs and completely botching an ownership transition this year.

Importantly, they didn't spend much, but they did spend on players that are connecting, in Murakami and Dominguez. The Twins spent a little, but Victor Caratini and Josh Bell haven't been as sensational. The White Sox are trending up. Somehow, the Pohlad family is so unlikable that Jerry Reinsdorf looks great in comparison. 

Bullpens are easy

 There has only been one player in the history of baseball to be named Yoendrys. He currently plays for the Minnesota Twins, and is having a very good start to his career in the organization. 

The Twins unrelenting pursuit of bullpen arms has lead them to, among other players, Yoendrys Gomez. Unlike the rest of the curious cast of characters the Twins have added, Gomez has settled in, and if things continue at the pace they are currently at, the Twins audio-visual department may need to come up with a bitchin' entrance for him when he comes into close games.

After doling out saves using a closer by very large committee strategy, Gomez has emerged as the top option for Derek Shelton with the game on the line. Since joining the Twins, Gomez has had 21 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings, with a sub 2.00 ERA. His K rate has gone up, his walk rate has gone down, and importantly, he hasn't allowed a home run. Since joining the team, he's been worth about half a win, if you worship at the church of Fangraphs.

Given his career to this point, you are welcome to question his results. He's been inconsistent. ranging from mediocre to poor, pitching in New York, LA, Chicago and with the Rays. He was also slotted as a starter when with the White Sox last year, and Fangraphs' projections still have him on the path, as a back of the rotation starter over the next few years, and improving in that role every year. I'm not sure Gomez is going to start again, but I do think he is still getting better. He's only 26.

Gomez's velocity is up this season, and even since joining the Twins. That probably plays a role in his success. Additionally, he has made tangible changes to his pitch mix. As is often the case with pitchers joining the Twins, Gomez is throwing more sliders, up about 10%, and is abandoning his cut fastball. It's probably worth noting that his best year to day, his second with the Yankees, saw a similar pitch usage. 

Am I saying that Gomez is a future star? No, probably not. But I do think there is something there, and the Twins have found a way to tap into it. The constant stir of bullpen arms has started calcify into some sort of order. Gomez, Anthony Banda and Andrew Morris have developed into somewhat reliable arms out there. 

Now, about the rest of the bullpen.

A much calmer deadline

 The trade rumors surrounding a couple of Ryans (Joe and Jeffers) are swirling as the trade deadline approaches, now less than two months away. Of course, less in the conversation is that despite coming out of a 5 game losing streak, the Twins won their first two games back at home and are only a couple of games out in the Wild Card chase. Persistent negativity locally and nationally have signaled that nobody thinks this will last. Whatever the case, it seems as though the trade deadline will, at the very least, be confusing. 

With that in mind, if the deadline were tomorrow, I can see the Twins being in a mix and match mode, where they aren't buying, nor are they selling. With Jeremy Zoll now in charge, and a different Pohlad pretending to care now, they aren't going to give away players with the playoffs so nearly in reach. What a terrible message! But what does playing the middle look like for these Twins?

The best thing to do would be to make "baseball" moves. That sounds incredibly oversimplified, but I can't think of a better term. All season, the weakest part of the team has been their bullpen. Bullpens don't generally cost that much to patch up, unless you are dealing elite arms like Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax or Louis Varland. The Twins don't necessarily need an elite arm.

Which is great, because if their goal is to trade from the middle, they aren't going to be offering elite players, either. Ryan Jeffers is in a contract year, and the Twins intentionally brought Victor Caratini in for two years, with Eduardo Tait waiting in the wings. Other positions are a bit muddier, but the goal will be to open up spots for the top of the system to step in and win some games.

The top prospects now are all offensive players, and aside from starting pitching, the Twins have received momentum from their offense. It's not one player, though, but rather a group of players who often don't have a position or really much of a track record. Tristan Gray and Ryan Kreidler are almost certainly peaking right now, and it is hard to cast that aside, though neither would get much on the market either. Orlando Arcia has had a top pedigree in the past, and may generate some return. 

The top prospects right now are outfield prospects. Trevor Larnach is beginning to look like a potential upgrade for a different contender, but Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez are hurt, so making an outfield move with a goal of bringing one of those prospects up is on hold. More likely is bringing up Kyler Fedko now after finally putting James Outman to pasture. But that isn't a trade.

Josh Bell and Kody Clemens are interesting cases, however. Both now have a track record, though Bell isn't hitting like the Twins would hope. Clemens is proving to be a version of Willi Castro. Moving Clemens might lead to the Twins finding space for Royce Lewis (who is not a prospect anymore) to collect at bats at first and DH, given how well he has hit at St. Paul, and the fact that Brooks Lee has taken over at third.

Regardless of what happens through July 31st, I don't think Ryan or Jeffers are going to be with the team next year for financial reasons. Maximum value may come through a deal this summer, especially if the expected backslide comes. Otherwise I think we can feel good about a quieter deadline. There is plenty of organizational talent, and contention isn't far off, so another purge is unnecessary.

In another world, with the team only a few games from a playoff spot and an obvious bullpen sized hole, this would be a team looking to add players. As we saw last year, players get dealt from 'pens all the time. I am an advocate of never throwing away an opportunity if it is there, and right now, there is opportunity. 

But this isn't a great team, and these aren't good owners. Look for the Twins to do as little as is reasonably possible this deadline.  

Trying to make sense of the roster, and failing

I have been traveling extensively for work this week, so I came back to cell phone reception with the tail end of a string of messages. "Roster bloodbath." In addition to Ryan Jeffers going on the IL with a broken bone in his wrist, the Twins designated Justin Topa for assignment and optioned Royce Lewis to AAA. Those are some big moves, if for no other reason than name recognition.

The Twins have remained as relatively competent as at any other point in the season. Slightly below .500, but not really getting their doors blown off in any game. Now, though, the Cleveland Guardians have started winning in bunches, and put some space between themselves and the rest of the division. Without the pressure of contention, perhaps, Jeremy Zoll has decided he could make some more daring moves and shake up the roster. 

It shouldn't be daring to option a couple of players that are batting in the mid .160s like Lewis and before him Matt Wallner, or give up on a reliever who has, thus far, provided no relief. They were some of the names that didn't get moved at last year's deadline, however, and should have been part of this season's core. Excepting Topa, they could have been a part of an extended future as well. It's an open question now as to any of their future with the team, including Jeffers, a free agent after the season.

But the Twins clearly aren't giving up the ghost on 2026. If they were, perhaps they would take a look at one of the prospects who appears close to making the MLB roster. Instead, Travis Adams was brought back to the bullpen, and veteran short stop Orlando Arcia were brought in. Yes, he is Oswaldo's brother, and he has been very good thus far in St. Paul.

Tristan Gray was moved to the paternity list, and Gabriel Gonzalez was brought to the big leagues in his stead, but that is likely a temporary call up. Ultimately, maybe we are just reading too much into these moves: Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Kaelen Culpepper are dinged up. Perhaps leaning into prospects isn't about contention yet, but rather has more to do with the Twins not having healthy enough prospects? Otherwise, why would they start the clock on Kendry Rojas and Gonzalez, who are further down the prospect list? 

I think the team has been pleasantly surprised by how quickly Connor Prielipp has come out of the gate for the Twins. Prielipp, along with Taj Bradley and Mick Abel have been three compelling sources for hope in the Twins' season. He was called up before Zebby Matthews this spring, but he was also pitching better than anyone else there. 

I'm talking myself in circles here, trying to divine some sort of scheme to how the Twins have called players up, how they have responded to injuries, how it seems they are scaling for the future. I think it comes down to this: They are trying to put the best players on the field. Given the payroll limitations, the bench isn't deep, but it is there. In some cases, the best depth moves have been Ryan Kreidler and Arcia. In others, there were higher rated prospects who had shown they were nearly ready to make the jump.

Gonzalez and Rojas were the best options to make brief stints in the majors because they still have options, and they were doing all right in St. Paul. The good news is, the front office isn't afraid to cut their losses this season and give a younger player a chance, rather than continuing to lean on veterans, even if they aren't performing. So long as the younger player can prove they are ready. If not, a veteran option could be chosen.

The Twins will probably call up Jenkins, Rodriguez and Culpepper this season. Not because they have to, but because they can. If they are good enough, Jeremy Zoll won't hesitate to put them on the Major League roster. 

The league that needs to keep growing

A couple of things that the WNBA has going for it: players coming
into the league now have some cache/ Not only is the college game more popular, but players that come through college generally have a handful of college seasons. Women's basketball fans know incoming players to the W before they even enter the draft.

The other thing about the league is that there are only 14 teams now. This allows teams to pair some of the greatest players in college together consistently. There isn't much room for players to develop further after they turn pro. There is certainly opportunity overseas, but that isn't the same as reaching fame and fortune where your friends and family are.

Take the case of Hannah Stuelke. Iowa has had a steady stream of WNBA players lately: Caitlin Clark, of course, but before her Megan Gustafson, Clark's teammate Kate Martin, and Lucy Olson. Stuelke has been a steady contributor throughout much of that time as a forward who scrapped for rebounds and was gifted at finding lanes on offense. She never was much of an outside shooter, and she doesn't have the dimensions of a typical WNBA forward with her skills, and went undrafted. 

Stuelke is a well known player from a big program. She isn't one of the elite forwards in all of basketball, but she was one of the best while she was playing in college. The WNBA now has enough prospective talent that good or marketable players are left out. 

The league is expanding regularly now. Portland and Toronto brought the league to 15, and by 2030, there will be 18 franchises. If the current trajectory holds, that won't be nearly enough. More girls are playing and the talent is emerging, and will be able to fill even more rosters. How many Hannah Stuelkes will there be then?

The blessing of lowered expectations

 Being a Minnesota sports fan is a constant struggle. Being a Twins fan may be the hardest of all, but then, is it tough having low expectations and meeting them, or having high expectations and getting a punch in the gut? 

Low expectations might actually be saving Minnesota Twins fans' collective health, frankly. A lot of people have prognosticated a bad Twins season because of one of the worst bullpens ever seen. The pen has been protected because of good starting pitching thus far, but make no mistake: It's bad. 

Aside from that, the Twins are in contention. The AL Central is miserable, and it isn't getting any better. The Twins are 7-3 against their division, and 6-1 against Cleveland and Detroit. They have also been scoring runs: the 9th most in baseball. The starters have the 8th best WAR in the game. The Twins, again, aside from the bullpen, have been good.

And they keep getting hurt.

Of those good pitchers, Two are now on the shelf - Mick Abel and Taj Bradley are hurt. Simeon Woods-Richardson has fallen on hard times recently, and Joe Ryan has had some injury scares. Can you imagine how much those things would bother us if we looked at their offense and rotation instead of the bullpen and our preseason expectations?

I am only half kidding when I say that our pessimism is helping us out. We aren't necessarily disappointed in the sub-500 record, because we didn't expect anything better. Some people are thinking that this might even be the apex of their season. Having two above average units and still remaining out of the postseason will sting a little less if we didn't think they would be there anyways.

In my opinion, that is easier to cope with than what happened to the Wild. 

The unrealized promise of potential

 Money is a nice thing for a baseball club to have. Spend it to patch up weaknesses and to retain your strengths. It's not the only thing, though. In fact, I would argue that there isn't a team out there that was built only through spending. It made good teams better, but it hardly made bad teams good. 

In the wake of the Twins tear down after finally winning in the playoffs, there was a lot of handwringing about the payroll, and tying that directly the inability of the Twins to win in the years since. It certainly torpedoed fan morale, attendance, and maybe even the possibility of a sale, but from a leadership perspective, things likely wouldn't have seemed so dire.

The 2023 team was buoyed by, yes, a strong rotation (and arguably, the rotation is nearly as good now, and certainly younger and cheaper), but also youngsters Ryan Jeffers, Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner all appeared in the team's top WAR producers. With only Sonny Gray departing the rotation, Byron Buxton returning healthy, and a bumper crop of young major league talent, it seemed that the Twins were well positioned to be successful.

Of the four youngsters I mentioned, only Jeffers has continued on that upward trajectory. Julien was traded away for pennies on the dollar, and now the always optimistic Twins Daily has recently penned articles about how Lewis and Wallner may be nearing the end of the line as Twins. Injury has hampered both, to be sure, and certainly over exposure. Whatever the cause or whomever should bear blame, not having the expected anchors to the lineup able to anchor said lineup is a primary cause for the disappointing trajectory of the team.

At some point, even the richest teams in baseball need some of their growth to come from within. Playing in the AL Central, there is a longer runway, so we see players figure it out longer, but imagine where the Yankees would be if Aaron Judge hadn't come into his own, or the Dodgers beginning their current dynasty without Clayton Kershaw. Money helps, but having prospects that click is crucial. 

The next round, after Jeffers, Julien, Lewis and Wallner, namely Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and Luke Keaschall profile differently. Martin is as old as Lewis, but broke out later, while Lee and Keaschall are contact driven, and will be evaluated on their defense as much as their plate production. Lee is hitting now, but for how long? Keaschall is in a sophomore slump.

The Twins are going to hope that Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez, as well as anyone else that comes up at the same time as those two aren't beset by the growing pains the Twins have been done in by. The Pohlads abandoned the team, certainly, but it's all for naught if the young talent never clicks.