Building a winner in Minneapolis

The Twins sit in a strange spot. Everyone can see the flaws with the team. Did you guys know that the bullpen is really, really bad? I've long stated that bullpen matters only if the rest of the team can get them into contention. That's the other strange thing: the Twins are only 3 games out, because the AL Central is back to being a contemptable warren of mismanaged underachievers. 

Minnesota's front office, in the face of it all, sees that they are pretty close, and rightfully know that winning will get fans to return to their seats. If winning is to continue, they need continued health in their rotation - which hasn't happened. Not only is their the potential for this season to continue to fall off without Pablo Lopez and maybe Joe Ryan at the front of the rotation, but if it were to flail with them, getting a prospect return via trade is a good way to return to the conversation quickly. 

Like it or not, the Twins are doing well this year BECAUSE of last year's trade off of their bullpen. Griffin Jax brought in Taj Bradley, Jhoan Duran brought Mick Abel. Before Ryan went down, I would argue that the 26 rotation is better than the 25 version.

So without prospects, potentially, to augment the farm system, it sounds like the Pohlads might be in a nightmare situation. They might have to spend their way out of these doldrums. They may have to pay, either to keep players in the system, or when free agency comes again, to get the team back to the top of the division in 2027. The fly in that ointment is this unfortunate survey: The Twins (along with Cincinnati) are playing in the least popular city among players in Major League Baseball. The Twins aren't in the bottom 5 for road game destination, with the ambience and facilities scoring well. Players specifically don't like Minneapolis.

Regardless of the reason - we all have theories - this likely means that, for premium players, the Twins will have to pay a "Minneapolis tax" for players to come to the Twins. All money being equal, the Twins are going to get players to come here, and then the front office looks foolish for paying too much. They will get less bang for their buck.

So how do you build a long term winner in Minnesota with those headwinds? You look for advantages only available if you are playing in Minnesota. It seems like the Twins are already leaning into that idea a bit. 

I imagine one of the things non-Minnesotans see when they see Minnesota is a cold, inhospitable climate. And it can be. Ignoring what the effects are on the player, it also affects the dynamics of the baseball. Essentially, cold, dry air is denser. Allow me to get meteorolgically nerdy on you for a second. According to the ideal gas law, pressure*volume is equal to the number of molecules*Temperature. Or, molecules per volume = density. The pressure is going to stay the same, so temperature going down means density needs to go up. Increased density will slow balls in flight down, which is why there are fewer cold weather dingers. It can also cause balls to break more easily.

So what does that mean on the position player side? Rather than power, which can get pricy, lean into a low strikeout rate, and if possible, a high walk rate. Those expensive homeruns turn into fly balls through the early and late months of the year. Getting on base is a skill for all seasons. 

The Twins have a couple of bright spots in the lineup this year. They are are also the players (with 80+ plate appearances) with the lowest K% among the top 5 in the league in BB%. The other three in that group, for what it's worth, are Nick Kurtz, Mike Trout and Brice Turang. Good company. High value may be attained by strengthening their lineup using a similar, high contact, high walk profile. Some guys that would fit that aren't going to break the bank include Seattle's JP Crawford, Detroit's Gleyber Torres and St. Louis' Ivan Herrera. More than the Twins might want to spend, traditionally, but certainly better cast for playing in the cold.

On the mound, the hard throwers are going to be valuable everywhere. Players with movement are going to benefit from time played in Minnesota. The Twins showed an awareness of this in their deadline strategy. Hard throwers Duran, Jax and Louis Varland were sent off to a great return. Justin Topa and Cole Sands, who don't throw as hard, relying a bit on craftiness were retained. Sands, for one, has one of the highest rates of horizontal motion on his slider in the game. A diminished velocity Bailey Ober has been effective recently. Meanwhile, Mick Abel has one of the higher spin rates in baseball.

The Twins should look primarily at spin and vertical and horizontal motion. A flyer on Washington reliever PJ Poulin could prove to be a good fit. Or Chase Shugart from the Phillies.

All of these conjunctures use current data one month in. And they project a profile, maybe not an individual player the Twins could look at this offseason (or in season, if the opportunity presents itself). Power will always come. We see that the Twins are able to get a cheap 1b every off season, and Byron Buxton has added the hits to his repertoire. Those homers just cost more on the open market. And don't forget defense. With fewer balls leaving the yard, running them down is important as well.

Games at the beginning and end of the season count just the same. The Twins can equip themselves for the environment they play in, an easier task than building it for the environment of everyone else. 

Matt Wallner has only played 6 MLB games in May in his CAREER

 In my last post about Luke Keaschall, I also spoke ill of Matt Wallner. If you like Matt Wallner, you will point to his electric summers. If you are wary of Wallner, you know about how he does in colder conditions. We are all right. You are only wrong if you say that Wallner is backsliding somehow this season.

Wallner is a career .180 hitter in April. His ISO is nearly 100 points below his career average, and he strikes out about 4% more as well. April Matt Wallner isn't "a little off". April Matt Wallner is bad. And that plays directly into his May.

Which Wallner, historically, does NOT play in. He has either been sent to AAA to work on things, or placed on the IL because of injury. One way or another, he spends May on the sidelines. He looks like a guy that really appreciates shaving time for the fishing opener. Junes haven't been great either, but everything looks good compared to April Matt Wallner.

If you are patient long enough, and the Twins are still in it, Wallner racks up the numbers in July. August is brilliant. Historically, he then has faded in September as well. His under the hood metrics suggest he is even worse than it appears. 

Wallner is less frustrating when you can clearly recognize the pattern he has fallen into. Now, the question is whether a player who can't play into early season momentum and character building, and fades during crunch time is someone worth building around.

Improve the lineup with this one weird trick (fans hate it)

Everyone has the player or player group that they are down on going into the season, and they will subsequently remain down on the player for the entirety of the remainder of their career. At least, that has been my experience in Minnesota, enjoying the opinions of Minnesota area fans. Thus, as the Twins continue to crater over the past week, in particular, 

The rotation continues to be the highlight, and the rest of the team hasn't been good enough to warrant worrying about the bullpen. That is because the team stopped scoring runs. I noted in my last post why the outfield prospects, like Emmanuel Rodriguez, aren't going to be called up yet (and actually, now James Outman has strung together some good appearances), and it is because of the efficacy of Trevor Larnach and Austin Martin. 

So where is the problem? There are two players in particular who have been bad all year, and haven't got any better in the last week or so. One of them is Matt Wallner. Speaking of those hobby horses people like the denigrate all the time, Wallner is certainly one of mine. That said, part of the Matt Wallner Experience is understanding that he will be borderline unplayable until about mid-June, in which he will really take off, completely unnoticed by me, and end up with decent stats by the end of the year, mostly accrued after the team is out of contention anyway. 

The point is, a bad Matt Wallner is April is just Matt Wallner in April. The difference this year is that with ABS, he hasn't been able to pin his strikeouts on the umpires. Maybe he is hurt, what with the grimacing at the plate? Wallner is pretty entrenched, and will be given time to work out his kinks, so we can enjoy a glorious 6 weeks in the middle of summer where Wallner is terrific.

So that leaves Luke Keaschall. Twins fans should be well informed about sophomore slumps by this point, and he has had one all season thus far. His WAR is lowest on the team, and looking under the hood, it's driven by a low wOBA and a similarly low xwOBA. He isn't hitting, he isn't hitting hard, and he has nobody to blame but himself.

Keaschall hasn't played a full year of Major League Baseball yet, and he has all three of his options remaining. In the interest of giving the team a jolt and also helping Keaschall with his ongoing development, the Twins should send their second baseman to St. Paul. Not forever, just until he sorts things out.

The Twins have a pretty good built in maneuver. They can call up Ryan Kreidler, have him take reps at short and move Brooks Lee to 2nd. The offensive jolt might be minimal, but the improvement to defense would be notable. If you want to get really weird, you could try Orlando Arcia, instead. 

The Twins are only 2 1/2 games out. They will continue to make win this season moves, while trying to preserve their player development. Right now, this seems like the right, if not popular, move. 

It's not time for Emmanuel Rodriguez yet.

 The Twins are approaching an eight of the way through the season, and have continued to flirt with .500. They have started to slide in the past week, losing painfully to the Reds and Mets, and dropping the series opener with the Rays. Their bullpen has shown weaknesses, but the skid has come as the starting pitching has scuffled, and the hitting has been less effective. 

The Twins, as I've said early and often, are still treating this team as a team that intends on contention. It seems like they should be putting their best players in the organization on the field, right? The folks that gave up on the the team before the season started are looking at the recent streak and have already started calling on dissembling the team and calling up prospects. 

In this regard, it seems like there should be common ground, right? Dispatch James Outman, call up Emmanuel Rodriguez. It seems so easy! Outman has been a little used bench player, playing in 20 games, mostly as a defensive replacement - he only has 24 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Rodriguez has an OPS of .887, smacking around AAA pitchers. There is no doubt that Rodriguez, right now, is a better player than Outman.

Of course, Outman hasn't got into a rhythm this year. There was a chance that he would pop in to spell Austin Martin or Trevor Larnach, two other guys that seemed to have narrowly made the roster this year. Well, Martin has been the Twins' best position player on the team so far, and easily so. Trevor Larnach has mostly platooned, and isn't known for his glove, but his WAR is #4 on the team among offensive players. 

When Martin is off, Larnach plays. Often, they play together. There is no spot for Outman to fit in the lineup, especially with Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner entrenched (and Ryan Jeffers or Josh Bell or Victor Caratini or whomever is occupying the DH role on a given night). But Outman is 28, and is not likely to emerge as the long term asset that Rodriguez could. It is paramount that Rodriguez plays every day. The Twins smartly don't want him waiting around on the bench.

If a change does come, expect it to come after an extended decline of the team, and trades being made. Or after an injury. There isn't as great a case to get Rodriguez to the majors right now as it appears on it's face. 

The Twins remain unabashedly confident.

 The Twins were on a high before they played the Reds. Since then, they were swept at home, suffered injuries, and have seen long suffering fans once again abandon hope. The moves the team made to address the areas of diminished depth, however, seem to indicate that the front office is still fully on board with making 2026 a success. 

It helps that, since Pablo Lopez went down, the injuries the team has seen haven't been the long term disasters that we all have become accustomed to. Royce Lewis is already back. Mick Abel's elbow, allegedly, isn't anything serious. Really, the longest term impact is probably Kody Funderburk, whose wife had a baby. He'll be dealing with that for a while.

The way these injuries have been addressed is interesting. In particular, the pitching depth tests have been strange, if this was a team simply looking to bide time until they are fully in contention again. There are plenty of spot fillers in St. Paul, players with longer MLB careers, and aren't reasonably presumed to be fixtures of the Twins' long term futures, like John Brebbia or the recently signed Luis Garcia. But that isn't the route the Twins took when Abel, Funderburk and Cody Laweryson went on the injured list. 

Even with the short stints expected on the IL, and with most of the world projecting the Twins to be in a rebuilding phase, the team still opted to start the clock on Connor Prielipp and Kendry Rojas, prospects in the organizational top ten. With Abel off the list, they are also two of the top 3 pitching prospects in the system. They also have had hot starts in St. Paul.

Maybe they will both be in the Majors for a longer stretch than just these couple of weeks, but with the information on hand, it looks like the Twins were trying to capture the momentum of a couple of guys pitching well to try to maintain some sort of forward momentum with the Major League roster, and they didn't take into account what that meant for service time. 

Calling up Prielipp and Rojas now, in mid-April, is a clear win now move. The prevailing narrative is that the Twins aren't a team that is going to contending team this year, but time and again, the team has shown that they aren't buying into it. 

A brief bit about luck and hitting in the clutch

 

This morning, we took the kids to the Mall of America, and they went on rides at Nickolodeon Universe, and I walked around, very happy not to do the rides. While walking the grounds, I walked over the site of the Met Stadium home plate, and said, "Aw, crap" and recalled the curse. Then the Twins blew their game against the Reds. Sorry, gang.

One factor that I regularly called out during obnoxiously slow starts was the "clutch" metric from Fangraphs. Essentially, it showed that the Twins were regularly and dramatically worse than their regular selves in late. close and run scoring opportunities. This year, the Twins have gotten off to a better start despite meager projections.

Naturally, I thought that perhaps this meant the Twins were finally seeing things fall their way. The "clutch" rating is thought to be luck driven, and should ultimately trend towards 0. The beginning of the 2026 season seemed like all those bad times were being corrected, with a better than normal performance in the clutch. You know, the Twins are getting results because they have been lucky. 

The Twins are in the middle of the pack. Their clutch score is a hair above 0. The highs we have been feeling in the first 1/10th of the season? That's just how normal fans live. I see why baseball is so popular.

So are the Twins actually good? Maybe. Probably better than promised. They have played a bit above .500, and I think that is plausible. If they had hit a bit better when it mattered in the past couple of years, perhaps this recent run of success wouldn't be so hard to believe. 

That same darkness remains.

 The Twins are 10-7 this year, much to the utter shock of the baseballing world, and perhaps most of all to Twins fans everywhere. I've spoken about my resistance to the overwhelming pessimism surrounding the Twins this season, but even this is a significantly better mark than I anticipated. It should serve as a reminder, however. 

A reminder that even though we have problems with certain specific actions or decisions the front office or management makes, or question a players fit with the team, the players aren't the problem. The manager isn't the problem. The front office isn't the problem.

It's always been the Pohlads. 

Derek Falvey was second guessed for his trade deadline results last year, and other trades he has made in the past. His signing of Josh Bell and retention of Trevor Larnach were questioned, because of the fit, and value vs. the money available. The Griffin Jax/Taj Bradley trade is paying immediate dividends. Mick Abel looks like the real thing. Josh Bell has been ethereal, and Trevor Larnach has produced, even against lefties. Austin Martin is breaking out, and on days he doesn't eat Canadian Subway, Simeon Woods-Richardson has been stable at the back end of the rotation. Those last two have been in the organization longer, but the first several instances were happenings early in the offseason.

Derek Shelton is getting plaudits, and people are still bad mouthing Rocco Baldelli, though managers barely matter. Even if Shelton was a deciding factor in the Twins' early season success, some is still owed to Rocco Baldelli, who brought him to the team in the first place, as bench coach. There is some philosophical overlap.

And of course, the players are always going to be out there grinding, for themselves and for one another. Their effort and attitude hasn't been the problem. The manager hasn't been a problem, and the front office isn't the cause of any strife the team has. The problem is the Pohlads.

Even after the team sold a portion, the problem remains the Pohlads. Always the Pohlads.