That same darkness remains.

 The Twins are 10-7 this year, much to the utter shock of the baseballing world, and perhaps most of all to Twins fans everywhere. I've spoken about my resistance to the overwhelming pessimism surrounding the Twins this season, but even this is a significantly better mark than I anticipated. It should serve as a reminder, however. 

A reminder that even though we have problems with certain specific actions or decisions the front office or management makes, or question a players fit with the team, the players aren't the problem. The manager isn't the problem. The front office isn't the problem.

It's always been the Pohlads. 

Derek Falvey was second guessed for his trade deadline results last year, and other trades he has made in the past. His signing of Josh Bell and retention of Trevor Larnach were questioned, because of the fit, and value vs. the money available. The Griffin Jax/Taj Bradley trade is paying immediate dividends. Mick Abel looks like the real thing. Josh Bell has been ethereal, and Trevor Larnach has produced, even against lefties. Austin Martin is breaking out, and on days he doesn't eat Canadian Subway, Simeon Woods-Richardson has been stable at the back end of the rotation. Those last two have been in the organization longer, but the first several instances were happenings early in the offseason.

Derek Shelton is getting plaudits, and people are still bad mouthing Rocco Baldelli, though managers barely matter. Even if Shelton was a deciding factor in the Twins' early season success, some is still owed to Rocco Baldelli, who brought him to the team in the first place, as bench coach. There is some philosophical overlap.

And of course, the players are always going to be out there grinding, for themselves and for one another. Their effort and attitude hasn't been the problem. The manager hasn't been a problem, and the front office isn't the cause of any strife the team has. The problem is the Pohlads.

Even after the team sold a portion, the problem remains the Pohlads. Always the Pohlads. 

Women's basketball on the cusp

NIL has left an indelible mark on college sports. Nevertheless, the NCAA football championship game featured Indiana winning over Miami, and the Final Four saw Illinois weasel their way in. None of those football schools are regarded (not anymore, in Miami's case) as college royalty. In Illinois' (and yes, Connecticut's) case, they got to the Final Four despite not being a number one seed. There is more money, yes, but there is a lot to go around.

In women's basketball, there is also a remarkable level of NIL and endorsement money in the women's game as well, and the game has benefitted because of it. Well known players like Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese and Paige Bueckers have been able to stay through a full college career because the income level is enough that they don't yet need the professional salary. Their brand names in their college towns were enough. 

There is a talent gap in women's basketball that doesn't exist in the men's game. I don't mean that  to diminish the game, but rather to state that the best teams are simply a lot better than even the next tier. This year’s Final Four consisted of four No. 1 seeds; last year saw three—plus Connecticut. The game is at a peak in attention, but for now, there isn’t much parity.

I officiate high school basketball, and I get to watch boys and girls, and even more than the college resurgence, that has made me a fan of the women's game. And women's basketball is a different game. The rules are the same, but the strategies are evolving. Former players are now coaching and recognizing more effective ways to utilize talent.

Unlike men's basketball, size isn't as important in players. Since players are smaller and don't have the same reach, there is more space on the court. Ball handlers and facilitators are essential. Clark is tall. Physically, she could profile as a forward. What separates her from her peers is her handling and outside shooting. No need to jam everyone into the lane.

The game is different for girls and women, thanks to co. aches adapting strategy to the game, which helped to bring the modern stars to the forefront. The game is better for it. The players are now put in a position to play the best version of their games. and now have seen that good women's basketball draws fans too.

Getting the game right was stage one, and probably not one that was recognized early enough. Now that the game strategy is so good and player development at younger levels is better equipped to find the right skills, NCAA Women's basketball is on the cusp of much more entertaining tournaments. More girls are playing, and more former players are coaching and developing talent.

It’s only a matter of time before No. 1 seeds are no longer automatic favorites—because more teams will have elite talent.

The Twins wish they had a bullpen problem

I've been putting my sports opinions online since I had a Geocities site with my friend Steve. That means over 20 years of this. Suffice to say, some things have changed. Opinionated young writers were early adopters to advanced statistics, which made us feel smart, certainly smarter than old fashioned writers, and often smarter than the teams we loved/derided.

Baseball is a numbers driven sports, and eventually, those advanced stats made their way into front offices, along with some of those same writers that proved they actually WERE as smart as they insisted. Now with everyone mostly on the same page statistically, teams have started ingesting more data and putting it to good analytical use. Maybe it is the loss of my youthful hubris, or if it is the teams stepping thing up in brainpower, but I am happy to admit that teams are generally smarter than I am.

But one thing hasn't changed, and I am equally happy to note that the Twins seem to ascribe to my philosophy on this: bullpens aren't particularly important. 

Good bullpens are made great by pitching staffs that go deep into games, and the Twins bad bullpen is mediocre - literally middle of the pack so far - thanks to a rotation that has given innings. Simeon Woods-Richardson and Taj Bradley, in particular, have stepped up to give that length. 

But the bullpen wasn't what did the team in last year, and it hasn't been the problem in 2026. The Twins failed to score enough runs. They never seemed to come through when runners were in scoring position. I've commented on this before, that the Twins just have a historical trend of being much worse in leverage situations. Towards the end of the year, they just stopped hitting in any situation.

The Twins had a tortured offseason, thanks to ownership intrigue and front office turnover, but they did have a throughline. Before Derek Falvey left, Minnesota added Josh Bell and Alex Jackson. Immediately after he left, the first move was for Victor Caratini. When the team broke camp, of all the utility infielder options, they opted for Tristan Gray, the bat first option. They kept Trevor Larnach. They did almost nothing until the very end to address the bullpen.

The Twins knew that the one thing that would hold them back was an inability to score runs. Their starting pitching would cover for their bullpen. Even if it didn't, the ability of the bullpen won't matter if they don't score runs. So far, the Twins aren't scoring. Take the Easter game against Tampa. Minnesota got 9 solid innings from Woods-Richardson, Kody Funderburk and Cole Sands. By all accounts, that should have been enough. In the 10th, things went sideways, but it was a problem because the Twins couldn't score more than one run.

Byron Buxton and Luke Keaschall are the carry over engine of the team, and they need to get going, certainly. They should expect more from Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee. Larnach, Bell and Gray have been effective. But they haven't hit much at all yet, and the bullpen continues to be a non-issue. 

It is OK to enjoy the 2026 Minnesota Twins

 It's hard to convince Minnesotans and people that have watched the Twins for any length of time that clutch hitting and momentum aren't real things in baseball. Against all odds, the team has regularly played below their projections for the last couple of years, all while falling well below the expected "clutch" metric for years. These are both things that should even out, that haven't. The Twins are historically unfortunate, or bad vibes are a tangible thing that can be applied specifically to the Minnesota Twins. 

It's undoubtedly the reason that you see a consistent drumbeat of negative perception from fans, both local and national, as well as the human writers behind it. There is Aaron Gleeman at the Athletic, Twins Daily, even Twinkie Town locally, and I recently saw a MLB Trade Rumors poll that had the Twins as the least likely team to with the AL Central. That's rough. 

Meanwhile, Fangraphs has the Twins finishing nearly .500, and ahead of the Guardians and White Sox. 

I know I've mentioned this a few times in the past, but, let's summarize my general opinion of the offseason and the state of the team before we look ahead to the start of the season: The problem with the Twins is the owners, and their unsettled winter only made things worse. The bullpen sell off was not as great an issue for me as it was for others, as bullpens are a luxury for good teams. If the Twins are good in other areas this season, then we can grouse about the lack of arms to close out games. Of course, if the Twins ARE good this year, it will likely be on the backs of some players that came to the team at the deadline last year. And that goes to my final point: the Twins would be widely viewed as an up and coming break out candidate, thanks to their young MLB talent and high minors prospects, if it weren't for the fact that they were in the postseason just a couple of years ago. 

I think the utter lack of expectations is going to be a gift for the Twins this year. Derek Shelton is coming to an organization that is older and more professional than the Pirates team he managed for the last few years. For all the lack of payroll, there are still anchors like Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton, and players that have a great pedigree on the cusp of breaking out, like Brooks Lee, Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis and Luke Keaschall. There are top prospects in the rotation, like newly acquired Taj Bradley and Mick Abel. When things start to derail, as they always do, there are plenty of players that project to be more than just warm bodies that will take roster spots. 

James Outman made the team after a good spring and a lack of player options, but Alan Roden was better, but was sent to St. Paul because he still had an option. He'll be up sooner or later. Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez and Walker Jenkins will also find their way into the lineup this season as well, and each time one of those guys appear, it will be exciting. 

Baseball is at it's best when it is quirky, and you get to know the personalities of the players involved. Over the last couple of years, the sheer star power and corporate polish of Carlos Correa were dominant elements of the public facing side of the team. Byron Buxton is the shining star of the team, and he has a pretty decent sense of humor. I'm looking forward to seeing more from the players on the roster. I mean, Brooks Lee's got to be at least a little bit goofy, right? He looks too much like Nick Punto not to be. 

If we can get out of our own way for a bit, if we can look past our anger and frustration about the way the Pohlads have run the team, from their botched sale and front office mismanagement, and instead appreciate the players, the coaches, and importantly, the people working hard in the stadium to make the game experience as enjoyable as they can, this can be a fun team. I think they will be looser than the past couple of years have seen, and that might even help them overcome their projections. 

I'm looking forward to the season, like I do every year, even after offseasons when, once again, I swear off the organization. This season is going to be weightless, and I intend to enjoy it. 

Avoiding the annual pessimism trap

Every year during Spring Training, we look ahead to next season, and we get a full buffet of sites and notoriously smart people discussing their projections. Projections in baseball have a reputation for being more reliable, because statistics are so good, monitoring is so thorough, and there are so few variables during individual at bats. The Twins have failed to match their projections for the last couple of years, and now, projections and sentiment are very down on the Twins. 

I understand how sentiment has come to the spot it is in. I've made it clear that I think the poor business skills of the Pohlads has led the offseason not proceeding the way anyone wanted it to. That said, given the current roster, and despite a pretty awful spring, I think the Twins and fans do have reason to hope in 2026. I say this knowing, again, that the more hope we have, the swifter the kick to the nuts comes from Fate. 

Functionally, how is the Twins team different in 2026 from the one in 2025? Obviously, the bullpen was obliterated. Carlos Correa isn't there, and Pablo Lopez will miss the season. "Carlos Correa isn't there" is a statement you could have said at many points during the last couple of years as well. He was either hurt or a shadow of himself. Pablo Lopez also missed a great deal of the past couple of seasons. This year, the Twins will be able to plan around it. A good bullpen is a luxury that good teams have. If we are talking about the bullpen this season, that is a reflection on how well things are going elsewhere. 

The Twins problem last year was an inability to score runs. They couldn't put together good at bats consecutively. This is a problem known as poor sequencing, and most statisticians will tell you that this is something that will work itself out with enough samples. It hasn't for most of the last decade. The Twins are significantly worse at the plate in late and close situations, or with runners in scoring position. I'm all for dingers, and I don't mind the three true outcome players, however the Twins haven't been getting two of the outcomes, and striking out too often when it matters. One way to ward that scenario off is adding more complete hitters to the lineup.

And they did. The Twins will have Josh Bell and Victor Caratini taking regular at bats, and we should see a full season of Luke Keaschall and Austin Martin. The Twins have been boring on offense, and Jhoan Duran's entrance was even more exciting, because it meant the Twins actually scored some runs in that game. 

There is also the prospect of full seasons of Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Brooks Lee, all former top prospects who have seen their shine come off. Part of it is injuries, part of it is pitchers adapting to their abilities. All three still have natural talents, and none are older than 28 - the year that Michael Cuddyer finally broke out. With the pedigree those three have, and a chance to make their mark, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss all three players. The projections have always overestimated their production. Why can't they, for once, underestimate it?

And if they don't, Walker Jenkins, Emmannuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Kaelen Culpepper and Alan Roden are waiting in the wings. 

Those are all hopeful thoughts that I don't believe are outlandish. But let's talk about a couple things that are firmer truths. First, the rotation, even without Pablo Lopez is just fine. Joe Ryan is good. Bailey Ober is healthy, and before last year, you could say that Ober and Ryan were on par. If Ober is healthy, in the AL Central he is a good #2 pitcher. I'm not sure what else Simeon Woods-Richardson needs to do to get taken off the wishy-washy is he/is he not in the rotation. Lopez getting hurt seemed to have done it this year, however two years pitching to an ERA just a skosh above 4.00 is a perfectly reliable mid to back of the rotation pitcher. He has been good for over 20 starts a year for the last two years. Just pencil him in.

The Twins have a bumper crop of pitching prospects. Mick Abel, Andrew Morris, Connor Prielipp and Kendry Rojas are the top names that won't make the roster. Taj Bradley and Zebby Matthews will make the roster. Their numbers haven't been as good as SWRs, but their metrics are better than the actual numbers. That's not a bad rotation. It's at least middle of the pack for Twins rotations this century.

Most importantly, the Twins play in the AL Central. The Tigers are the top dog in the division, but the rest of the division is surmountable. That means that if things go a bit awry for the Tigers, it could be anyone. Even the Twins, with their modest roster.

If all those things come together, then we will be able to fret over the bullpen.  It's not crazy to think that they could. 

Business is hard.

 Last week, I noted that there was probably one more shoe to drop. Unfortunately, that shoe was actually rushing towards us to kick Twins fans collectively right in the gut. First, Pablo Lopez went down with a UCL injury, because of course he did, but now Joe Ryan is also getting checked out for a back issue that will probably be serious because: Curse. 

There is also something else going on here, and it's something that so many Twins fans have been saying for such a long time: The Pohlads. 

It's not entirely what you think, though. The ongoing conversation is that Pohlads are miserly, unwilling to pay the necessary salaries to field a competitive baseball team and generally hostile to the Twins. I am hear to offer a different opinion. The Pohlads don't understand baseball and are bad at the business therein. 

Just a couple highlights before our recent circumstances. The Twins signed the last small (relative) TV deal before the Dodgers signed a huge deal, and other teams had a blueprint for making money from local TV. The Twins were at least able to secure a new stadium, and had a good season before all of their stars got injured, and took very few actions to replenish the roster and were bad for most of the 2010s. Then, again when TV deals were coming due and the team ramped up to position themselves as an attractive piece of media, only to see the entire regional sports carrier market collapse. Instead of then pivoting, they throttled their payroll and destroyed fan loyalty, which was the only reliable source of income they could count on.

Now, obviously bad luck played a role in those various disasters, but it is important to acknowledge that bad decisions led the team to be vulnerable when there were headwinds. Their TV situation over the past 25 years has been the number one overarching factor in keeping the Twins as a small market team, as the Pohlads saw the organization as a traditional business, rather than the investment smarter owners see it as. Payroll goes up only as profits due, so with a fixed television income below what other markets were offering, the Twins were always going to be handicapped. 

Now, according to the comments that Tom Pohlad has made (and maybe this is thanks to the new investors in the organization), he seems to appreciate that the way to drive up interest is by winning, and that winning takes some monetary investment. He also, quite rightly, sees the Twins as a viable contender in the AL Central. If your team has a pulse, you are a contender in the AL Central. I'm on board there too. 

Now here's the problem. A fundamental difference in the world of business and the world of sports is that your operational "year" starts at the trade deadline, with an opportunity to reset at the end of the season. January 1st is just a holiday, and not an opportunity to make changes to your front office or direction of the organization. If they wanted to reevaluate at the beginning of the offseason, that would have been fine, they could have been aggressive and rounded out the current roster. They would have been justified in continuing the tear down and creating a super-farm. 

But they didn't. The business minded Pohlads got their new investors, and after the new year shook the organization up. Unfortunately, this is like Target firing the store manager during Christmas season. The desire to be more aggressive came too late to do anything. The Twins held the Falvey led organization from continuing their aggressive reset for the future. Now, Lopez and maybe Ryan will not be able to provide any return for the Twins, either on the field or as a trade option. This wouldn't have been a problem if the Pohlads knew what they were doing, and just made their decision a couple of months earlier.

But they don't. Ownership incompetence is its own curse. 

One more shoe to drop

 It seems as though everyone is predicting the Twins to make one more move soon. There isn't much left on the free agency market, though I could foresee the team adding Michael Kopech (and Liam Hendriks, apparently) on a deal to work out of the back of their bullpen. More likely, the Twins are going to shake things up with a trade. How big a trade remains to be seen. I, for one, think there is a big trade coming, and I don't think it is one that many people see coming. 

There is no shortage of people that are looking at the Twins roster, realizing that there are extra left handed corner outfielders, and a dearth of qualified bullpen arms. Both of those situations are likely to be addressed in whatever deal comes down in the next couple of weeks. 

The big question early in the offseason surrounded outfielder Trevor Larnach. Why was he tendered a contract for this cash strapped organization, especially on a team with no shortage of similarly skilled players? Naturally, Larnach is the name that most fans expect to be dealt.

Hear me out, though. If people outside the front office questioned whether Larnach was even worth being tendered a contract, but the Twins chose to tender him anyway, that suggests they value him more highly than the market likely does. If that’s the case, it seems unlikely another team would suddenly step in and value Larnach more than Minnesota does. Tendering him despite those doubts doesn’t exactly position the Twins to maximize a return on investment in a trade. For that reason, Larnach probably isn’t as firmly on the trade block as some assume.

If the team does make a deal, they will need to find an asset that another team will value, that the Twins would be able to backfill internally. With Larnach, he is one year of depth until Walker Jenkins joins the team full time, which also allows the team to move on from a different player with more years of control, potentially garner a better return package. 

That leaves three prominent possibilities: Matt Wallner, Alan Roden and Austin Martin. Wallner may command the greatest return, but the Twins may be loathe to trade away another native Minnesotan after the Louis Varland debacle, and the team labored with a poor on base percentage last year, making Austin Martin more valuable.

The Twins have a more significant move still awaiting us this spring. Don't be surprised if it' Alan Roden on the move again.