Trying to make sense of the roster, and failing

I have been traveling extensively for work this week, so I came back to cell phone reception with the tail end of a string of messages. "Roster bloodbath." In addition to Ryan Jeffers going on the IL with a broken bone in his wrist, the Twins designated Justin Topa for assignment and optioned Royce Lewis to AAA. Those are some big moves, if for no other reason than name recognition.

The Twins have remained as relatively competent as at any other point in the season. Slightly below .500, but not really getting their doors blown off in any game. Now, though, the Cleveland Guardians have started winning in bunches, and put some space between themselves and the rest of the division. Without the pressure of contention, perhaps, Jeremy Zoll has decided he could make some more daring moves and shake up the roster. 

It shouldn't be daring to option a couple of players that are batting in the mid .160s like Lewis and before him Matt Wallner, or give up on a reliever who has, thus far, provided no relief. They were some of the names that didn't get moved at last year's deadline, however, and should have been part of this season's core. Excepting Topa, they could have been a part of an extended future as well. It's an open question now as to any of their future with the team, including Jeffers, a free agent after the season.

But the Twins clearly aren't giving up the ghost on 2026. If they were, perhaps they would take a look at one of the prospects who appears close to making the MLB roster. Instead, Travis Adams was brought back to the bullpen, and veteran short stop Orlando Arcia were brought in. Yes, he is Oswaldo's brother, and he has been very good thus far in St. Paul.

Tristan Gray was moved to the paternity list, and Gabriel Gonzalez was brought to the big leagues in his stead, but that is likely a temporary call up. Ultimately, maybe we are just reading too much into these moves: Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Kaelen Culpepper are dinged up. Perhaps leaning into prospects isn't about contention yet, but rather has more to do with the Twins not having healthy enough prospects? Otherwise, why would they start the clock on Kendry Rojas and Gonzalez, who are further down the prospect list? 

I think the team has been pleasantly surprised by how quickly Connor Prielipp has come out of the gate for the Twins. Prielipp, along with Taj Bradley and Mick Abel have been three compelling sources for hope in the Twins' season. He was called up before Zebby Matthews this spring, but he was also pitching better than anyone else there. 

I'm talking myself in circles here, trying to divine some sort of scheme to how the Twins have called players up, how they have responded to injuries, how it seems they are scaling for the future. I think it comes down to this: They are trying to put the best players on the field. Given the payroll limitations, the bench isn't deep, but it is there. In some cases, the best depth moves have been Ryan Kreidler and Arcia. In others, there were higher rated prospects who had shown they were nearly ready to make the jump.

Gonzalez and Rojas were the best options to make brief stints in the majors because they still have options, and they were doing all right in St. Paul. The good news is, the front office isn't afraid to cut their losses this season and give a younger player a chance, rather than continuing to lean on veterans, even if they aren't performing. So long as the younger player can prove they are ready. If not, a veteran option could be chosen.

The Twins will probably call up Jenkins, Rodriguez and Culpepper this season. Not because they have to, but because they can. If they are good enough, Jeremy Zoll won't hesitate to put them on the Major League roster. 

The league that needs to keep growing

A couple of things that the WNBA has going for it: players coming
into the league now have some cache/ Not only is the college game more popular, but players that come through college generally have a handful of college seasons. Women's basketball fans know incoming players to the W before they even enter the draft.

The other thing about the league is that there are only 14 teams now. This allows teams to pair some of the greatest players in college together consistently. There isn't much room for players to develop further after they turn pro. There is certainly opportunity overseas, but that isn't the same as reaching fame and fortune where your friends and family are.

Take the case of Hannah Stuelke. Iowa has had a steady stream of WNBA players lately: Caitlin Clark, of course, but before her Megan Gustafson, Clark's teammate Kate Martin, and Lucy Olson. Stuelke has been a steady contributor throughout much of that time as a forward who scrapped for rebounds and was gifted at finding lanes on offense. She never was much of an outside shooter, and she doesn't have the dimensions of a typical WNBA forward with her skills, and went undrafted. 

Stuelke is a well known player from a big program. She isn't one of the elite forwards in all of basketball, but she was one of the best while she was playing in college. The WNBA now has enough prospective talent that good or marketable players are left out. 

The league is expanding regularly now. Portland and Toronto brought the league to 15, and by 2030, there will be 18 franchises. If the current trajectory holds, that won't be nearly enough. More girls are playing and the talent is emerging, and will be able to fill even more rosters. How many Hannah Stuelkes will there be then?

The blessing of lowered expectations

 Being a Minnesota sports fan is a constant struggle. Being a Twins fan may be the hardest of all, but then, is it tough having low expectations and meeting them, or having high expectations and getting a punch in the gut? 

Low expectations might actually be saving Minnesota Twins fans' collective health, frankly. A lot of people have prognosticated a bad Twins season because of one of the worst bullpens ever seen. The pen has been protected because of good starting pitching thus far, but make no mistake: It's bad. 

Aside from that, the Twins are in contention. The AL Central is miserable, and it isn't getting any better. The Twins are 7-3 against their division, and 6-1 against Cleveland and Detroit. They have also been scoring runs: the 9th most in baseball. The starters have the 8th best WAR in the game. The Twins, again, aside from the bullpen, have been good.

And they keep getting hurt.

Of those good pitchers, Two are now on the shelf - Mick Abel and Taj Bradley are hurt. Simeon Woods-Richardson has fallen on hard times recently, and Joe Ryan has had some injury scares. Can you imagine how much those things would bother us if we looked at their offense and rotation instead of the bullpen and our preseason expectations?

I am only half kidding when I say that our pessimism is helping us out. We aren't necessarily disappointed in the sub-500 record, because we didn't expect anything better. Some people are thinking that this might even be the apex of their season. Having two above average units and still remaining out of the postseason will sting a little less if we didn't think they would be there anyways.

In my opinion, that is easier to cope with than what happened to the Wild. 

The unrealized promise of potential

 Money is a nice thing for a baseball club to have. Spend it to patch up weaknesses and to retain your strengths. It's not the only thing, though. In fact, I would argue that there isn't a team out there that was built only through spending. It made good teams better, but it hardly made bad teams good. 

In the wake of the Twins tear down after finally winning in the playoffs, there was a lot of handwringing about the payroll, and tying that directly the inability of the Twins to win in the years since. It certainly torpedoed fan morale, attendance, and maybe even the possibility of a sale, but from a leadership perspective, things likely wouldn't have seemed so dire.

The 2023 team was buoyed by, yes, a strong rotation (and arguably, the rotation is nearly as good now, and certainly younger and cheaper), but also youngsters Ryan Jeffers, Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner all appeared in the team's top WAR producers. With only Sonny Gray departing the rotation, Byron Buxton returning healthy, and a bumper crop of young major league talent, it seemed that the Twins were well positioned to be successful.

Of the four youngsters I mentioned, only Jeffers has continued on that upward trajectory. Julien was traded away for pennies on the dollar, and now the always optimistic Twins Daily has recently penned articles about how Lewis and Wallner may be nearing the end of the line as Twins. Injury has hampered both, to be sure, and certainly over exposure. Whatever the cause or whomever should bear blame, not having the expected anchors to the lineup able to anchor said lineup is a primary cause for the disappointing trajectory of the team.

At some point, even the richest teams in baseball need some of their growth to come from within. Playing in the AL Central, there is a longer runway, so we see players figure it out longer, but imagine where the Yankees would be if Aaron Judge hadn't come into his own, or the Dodgers beginning their current dynasty without Clayton Kershaw. Money helps, but having prospects that click is crucial. 

The next round, after Jeffers, Julien, Lewis and Wallner, namely Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and Luke Keaschall profile differently. Martin is as old as Lewis, but broke out later, while Lee and Keaschall are contact driven, and will be evaluated on their defense as much as their plate production. Lee is hitting now, but for how long? Keaschall is in a sophomore slump.

The Twins are going to hope that Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez, as well as anyone else that comes up at the same time as those two aren't beset by the growing pains the Twins have been done in by. The Pohlads abandoned the team, certainly, but it's all for naught if the young talent never clicks. 

Building a winner in Minneapolis

The Twins sit in a strange spot. Everyone can see the flaws with the team. Did you guys know that the bullpen is really, really bad? I've long stated that bullpen matters only if the rest of the team can get them into contention. That's the other strange thing: the Twins are only 3 games out, because the AL Central is back to being a contemptable warren of mismanaged underachievers. 

Minnesota's front office, in the face of it all, sees that they are pretty close, and rightfully know that winning will get fans to return to their seats. If winning is to continue, they need continued health in their rotation - which hasn't happened. Not only is their the potential for this season to continue to fall off without Pablo Lopez and maybe Joe Ryan at the front of the rotation, but if it were to flail with them, getting a prospect return via trade is a good way to return to the conversation quickly. 

Like it or not, the Twins are doing well this year BECAUSE of last year's trade off of their bullpen. Griffin Jax brought in Taj Bradley, Jhoan Duran brought Mick Abel. Before Ryan went down, I would argue that the 26 rotation is better than the 25 version.

So without prospects, potentially, to augment the farm system, it sounds like the Pohlads might be in a nightmare situation. They might have to spend their way out of these doldrums. They may have to pay, either to keep players in the system, or when free agency comes again, to get the team back to the top of the division in 2027. The fly in that ointment is this unfortunate survey: The Twins (along with Cincinnati) are playing in the least popular city among players in Major League Baseball. The Twins aren't in the bottom 5 for road game destination, with the ambience and facilities scoring well. Players specifically don't like Minneapolis.

Regardless of the reason - we all have theories - this likely means that, for premium players, the Twins will have to pay a "Minneapolis tax" for players to come to the Twins. All money being equal, the Twins are going to get players to come here, and then the front office looks foolish for paying too much. They will get less bang for their buck.

So how do you build a long term winner in Minnesota with those headwinds? You look for advantages only available if you are playing in Minnesota. It seems like the Twins are already leaning into that idea a bit. 

I imagine one of the things non-Minnesotans see when they see Minnesota is a cold, inhospitable climate. And it can be. Ignoring what the effects are on the player, it also affects the dynamics of the baseball. Essentially, cold, dry air is denser. Allow me to get meteorolgically nerdy on you for a second. According to the ideal gas law, pressure*volume is equal to the number of molecules*Temperature. Or, molecules per volume = density. The pressure is going to stay the same, so temperature going down means density needs to go up. Increased density will slow balls in flight down, which is why there are fewer cold weather dingers. It can also cause balls to break more easily.

So what does that mean on the position player side? Rather than power, which can get pricy, lean into a low strikeout rate, and if possible, a high walk rate. Those expensive homeruns turn into fly balls through the early and late months of the year. Getting on base is a skill for all seasons. 

The Twins have a couple of bright spots in the lineup this year. They are are also the players (with 80+ plate appearances) with the lowest K% among the top 5 in the league in BB%. The other three in that group, for what it's worth, are Nick Kurtz, Mike Trout and Brice Turang. Good company. High value may be attained by strengthening their lineup using a similar, high contact, high walk profile. Some guys that would fit that aren't going to break the bank include Seattle's JP Crawford, Detroit's Gleyber Torres and St. Louis' Ivan Herrera. More than the Twins might want to spend, traditionally, but certainly better cast for playing in the cold.

On the mound, the hard throwers are going to be valuable everywhere. Players with movement are going to benefit from time played in Minnesota. The Twins showed an awareness of this in their deadline strategy. Hard throwers Duran, Jax and Louis Varland were sent off to a great return. Justin Topa and Cole Sands, who don't throw as hard, relying a bit on craftiness were retained. Sands, for one, has one of the highest rates of horizontal motion on his slider in the game. A diminished velocity Bailey Ober has been effective recently. Meanwhile, Mick Abel has one of the higher spin rates in baseball.

The Twins should look primarily at spin and vertical and horizontal motion. A flyer on Washington reliever PJ Poulin could prove to be a good fit. Or Chase Shugart from the Phillies.

All of these conjunctures use current data one month in. And they project a profile, maybe not an individual player the Twins could look at this offseason (or in season, if the opportunity presents itself). Power will always come. We see that the Twins are able to get a cheap 1b every off season, and Byron Buxton has added the hits to his repertoire. Those homers just cost more on the open market. And don't forget defense. With fewer balls leaving the yard, running them down is important as well.

Games at the beginning and end of the season count just the same. The Twins can equip themselves for the environment they play in, an easier task than building it for the environment of everyone else. 

Matt Wallner has only played 6 MLB games in May in his CAREER

 In my last post about Luke Keaschall, I also spoke ill of Matt Wallner. If you like Matt Wallner, you will point to his electric summers. If you are wary of Wallner, you know about how he does in colder conditions. We are all right. You are only wrong if you say that Wallner is backsliding somehow this season.

Wallner is a career .180 hitter in April. His ISO is nearly 100 points below his career average, and he strikes out about 4% more as well. April Matt Wallner isn't "a little off". April Matt Wallner is bad. And that plays directly into his May.

Which Wallner, historically, does NOT play in. He has either been sent to AAA to work on things, or placed on the IL because of injury. One way or another, he spends May on the sidelines. He looks like a guy that really appreciates shaving time for the fishing opener. Junes haven't been great either, but everything looks good compared to April Matt Wallner.

If you are patient long enough, and the Twins are still in it, Wallner racks up the numbers in July. August is brilliant. Historically, he then has faded in September as well. His under the hood metrics suggest he is even worse than it appears. 

Wallner is less frustrating when you can clearly recognize the pattern he has fallen into. Now, the question is whether a player who can't play into early season momentum and character building, and fades during crunch time is someone worth building around.

Improve the lineup with this one weird trick (fans hate it)

Everyone has the player or player group that they are down on going into the season, and they will subsequently remain down on the player for the entirety of the remainder of their career. At least, that has been my experience in Minnesota, enjoying the opinions of Minnesota area fans. Thus, as the Twins continue to crater over the past week, in particular, 

The rotation continues to be the highlight, and the rest of the team hasn't been good enough to warrant worrying about the bullpen. That is because the team stopped scoring runs. I noted in my last post why the outfield prospects, like Emmanuel Rodriguez, aren't going to be called up yet (and actually, now James Outman has strung together some good appearances), and it is because of the efficacy of Trevor Larnach and Austin Martin. 

So where is the problem? There are two players in particular who have been bad all year, and haven't got any better in the last week or so. One of them is Matt Wallner. Speaking of those hobby horses people like the denigrate all the time, Wallner is certainly one of mine. That said, part of the Matt Wallner Experience is understanding that he will be borderline unplayable until about mid-June, in which he will really take off, completely unnoticed by me, and end up with decent stats by the end of the year, mostly accrued after the team is out of contention anyway. 

The point is, a bad Matt Wallner is April is just Matt Wallner in April. The difference this year is that with ABS, he hasn't been able to pin his strikeouts on the umpires. Maybe he is hurt, what with the grimacing at the plate? Wallner is pretty entrenched, and will be given time to work out his kinks, so we can enjoy a glorious 6 weeks in the middle of summer where Wallner is terrific.

So that leaves Luke Keaschall. Twins fans should be well informed about sophomore slumps by this point, and he has had one all season thus far. His WAR is lowest on the team, and looking under the hood, it's driven by a low wOBA and a similarly low xwOBA. He isn't hitting, he isn't hitting hard, and he has nobody to blame but himself.

Keaschall hasn't played a full year of Major League Baseball yet, and he has all three of his options remaining. In the interest of giving the team a jolt and also helping Keaschall with his ongoing development, the Twins should send their second baseman to St. Paul. Not forever, just until he sorts things out.

The Twins have a pretty good built in maneuver. They can call up Ryan Kreidler, have him take reps at short and move Brooks Lee to 2nd. The offensive jolt might be minimal, but the improvement to defense would be notable. If you want to get really weird, you could try Orlando Arcia, instead. 

The Twins are only 2 1/2 games out. They will continue to make win this season moves, while trying to preserve their player development. Right now, this seems like the right, if not popular, move.