Is the Bears offense.... .good?

 In my ongoing "Following the Compass" efforts, in which I draw a random game off of a random team's schedule, and try to attend or watch it, I selected the San Diego Padres and the Chicago Bears this year. The Padres game was last month against the Mets, while the Bears game will come next month on Monday night against the Eagles. Since I had children, I've not made it to nearly as many games as the 1 or 2 a year I used to get to, but I still make a point of following teams and watching the games, however I'm able. 

Since I haven't been getting to games and streaming is a more prominent possibility, I am also becoming more invested in the teams. The Padres have been a fun watch all year, especially when my other primary option has been the Twins. If one week is to be judged, it looks like the really fun watch will be the Chicago Bears. 

It's extremely important not to get too hung up on early season results, given how much maturation, development or injury can affect a team moving forward, but seeing Chicago nearly put up 60 points during their opening game of the season is jarring. Even when the Bears have been good in the past, it was on the back of their defense, and a couple of great running backs. Defenses and strong ground games don't often amount to high point totals. 

The Bears have been trying for as long as anyone has been around to find the mix that would help them develop a passing game and score some points. They've drafted or traded for quarterbacks that just never seemed to work out, for decades. These are just the regular starters, the guys who were supposed to start for the Bears, since Jim McMahon won the Super Bowl with the team:
Mike Tomczak
Jim Harbaugh
Erik Kramer
Cade MCNown
Jim Miller
Rex Grossman
Kyle Orton
Jay Cutler
Mitch Trubisky
Justin Fields
and now, finally, Caleb Williams.

Jim Harbaugh was tough, and Rex Grossman led the team to the Super Bowl. Jay Cutler was the longest tenured of the group, but none of them have done what Williams has done: Started every game in two consecutive seasons. In fact, 2024 saw Williams start all 17 games, the first QB to start every game for the Bears since Cutler in 2009. Since that 86 team, it was Harbaugh in 91, Kramer in 95, Grossman in 06 and Cutler. That is the list of season long quarterbacks for the Chicago Bears for the last 40 years. 

Having consistency at quarterback is a product of having a decent offensive line and a real game plan. The Bears hired Ben Johnson to be their coach before last season, and he has installed a new scheme, that for once, is working. Keeping Williams protected is the most important tenet. Letting him work is the next.

For one week, at least, the offense has clicked in 2026. They will play the Vikings in Week 2 to get a little bit more of a test on offense. It's been half a century in the making. 

Now, about that defense. 

This season has gone better than expected.

 It's incredible to be writing about this anniversary, 25 years later. It seems both so distant, something that has always been there, like something I learned in history, but it seems as though it was only yesterday. We are far removed enough that the features and remembrances are all covering how we collectively tried to move on, and a retrospective look back that reminds us that indeed, our lives have been irretrievably altered. I'm going to talk about baseball now, the current Twins team, with the memory of Mike Piazza hitting a home run in the first game back in New York, and the notion that while baseball can be unimportant, it's ability to entertain, distract and delight can be the vital cog in continuing on with our lives. It's important because it's fun. Before I move on today, go ahead and read Cody Christie at Twins Daily, and his retelling of an incredible walk off home run. 

It feels to me that all of the negative nellies around the Twins fan and journalistic base are finally getting their way. The Twins are stumbling into the end of the year, and the same outlets that have been forecasting doom and gloom for the team since the deadline last year are now lamenting another collapse, and are exasperated, ostensibly, at the continued late season struggles the Twins have had lately. 

The Twins will finish below .500, but were competitive for longer than most anticipated this year, and will finish with a better record than many had anticipated when the season started. Until very recently, I would say it has been a fun year. What made it compelling to me was the future cogs of the team that have stepped into important roles.

Taj Bradley has exceeded expectations, and looks to be a rotation fixture, while in the bullpen, Andrew Morris has taken an important role in the bullpen. Before he got hurt, Mick Abel looked capable, and Zebby Matthews has recently seemed to step up. All of those guys are young pitchers that are going to be a part of the future pitching staff for a couple of years. Kendry Rojas acquitted himself well in a long relief role.

On offense, Kody Clemens has had a career year, and will be under team control through his peak. Brooks Lee had question marks at short, then shifted to third base and has also settled into a role as one of the top power hitters in the lineup. He's only 25 , and he could certainly be a 30 home run a year hitter in due time. After very slow starts, Luke Keaschall has become one of the better pure hitters on the team. While Royce Lewis may not ever reach the apex of the potential we saw in 2023, he has shown a willingness to adapt and go where the team asks him with a smile on his face. He's not making that much money, and if you accept what is rather than what could have been, Royce can be a valuable member of the organization.

And the Twins are able to use the tail of the season to evaluate some of the upper echelon of their minor league system. Connor Prielipp has already made the leap early in the year, but Kaelen Culpepper has been electric since joining the team. Heck, even just today, Emmanuel Rodriguez came up and pulled a Kaelen, hitting a homer in his debut, too. Walker Jenkins has struggled, but Alen Roden is waiting in the wings. Roden's biggest flaw, as I can see it, is that his name isn't Walker Jenkins. He will be helpful next year as well.

The team, when you look at how they are constituted, is clearly on the come up. It's a fundamentally different team than it was last year, and especially two years. They already turned over the roster and bottomed out, but are already turning it back around. They are better this year than many thought they would be, and continue to trend ahead. 

There are only a couple of weeks left on the season, but given the long term arc of the team, I would say they are ahead of schedule. Most of the credit comes from the players on the field and the Major League coaching staff, given the tumult behind the scenes. Not many Twins writers in the region will give you this perspective, but things are looking up in Twins Territory.

The 2023 draft, and turning it into 2026 success.

 It's entirely possible that the Indianapolis Colts are going to be stumbling into a decent season this year. Generalized impatience in the NFL is a big part of the reason. Specifically, that impatience, and the effect it has on the Minnesota Vikings are direct reasons why the Colts may be poised for their first divisional win in over a decade. 

There are two areas that the Colts are hoping to turn pressure every team feels into diamonds for themselves. That is to say, there are two elements of the Colts that will be better, thanks to one singular pressure that is felt by teams across the NFL. Find a quarterback, and find him now. 

Back in 2024, the Vikings were moving on from Kirk Cousins, who had sustained a season ending injury and was at the end of his contract. Without a reasonable heir to the position, the Vikings went to the draft looking for a quarterback. The Vikings were not the only team looking for a quarterback, and ultimately, they were the 5th team to select a quarterback at pick number 10. 

The Colts, meanwhile, had Anthony Richardson, who they still thought was the quarterback of the future, and the 15th pick in the draft. They selected Laiatu Latu, their new defensive end, who is now starting on a continually strengthening defense. Latu was the first defensive player drafted in 2023, despite the pick coming halfway through the round. 

Another element of this rush for quarterbacks was the abandonment of previously regarded prospects. The Vikings saw it that year as well. They selected JJ McCarthy with that 10th pick, only to see him fall to injury in the preseason. Journeyman Sam Darnold, who had flamed out in New York and Carolina went to a team with a good system and coach, and some experience under his belt, and left the Vikings back to the playoffs. Darnold's image rehabilitated, left Minnesota to go to Seattle the following offseason, and won the Super Bowl with the Seahawks.

During that 2024 season, the Vikings also picked up Daniel Jones, the castoff from the other New York team to learn in the Vikings system. Minnesota wanted a low cost quarterback to build around for a while, so were committed to McCarthy. The Colts had seen Richardson struggle through injury filled years, and opted to bring in a quarterback with a little bit of experience. Jones came to Indy, and excelled, much like, though not as great a degree as Darnold in Minnesota. 

If you think the pressure to find a quarterback is intense in Minnesota, Darnold and Jones both washed out of New York, where the public glare even harsher. Also, part of the impatience means teams are looking to move on if your guy hasn't clicked during his rookie contract. There are some incredible athletes that are in fortunate situations and achieve immediate success, but then there are others that fall into a place like Giants Stadium and reach an immediate plateau.

What those guys, and many quarterbacks need is the grace, time and resources to develop. Darnold eventually got that in San Francisco, and maybe Jones had that a bit in Minnesota. Again, the Vikings are trying it again with Kyler Murray this season. Indianapolis knew better to throw away the more capable inexpensive option than to circle back to Richardson. They also have Anthony Richardson to thank for feeling comfortable enough to draft for defense and take advantage of the board in 2023. 

But more accurately, they have a leaguewide patience deficit to thank for their position now. We'll see how good it is starting on Sunday. 

The Cap is a trap

 As the 2026 season enters it's final month, we can start to get a picture of what the 2027 lineup will look like. It's full of promise, and now, with young players getting experience playing meaningful baseball, it looks like the next window will open much sooner than we were expecting. 

To wit, the roster on opening day next year may look like this:

C - Victor Caratini
1b - Royce Lewis
2b - Kody Clemens
SS - Kaelen Culpepper
3b - Brooks Lee
OF - Walker Jenkins, Byron Buxton, and one of Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin, Luke Keaschall, Alan Roden or Emmanuel Rodriguez, with another as the DH. 

SP - Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, Baily Ober

RP - Jeff Hoffman, Yoendrys Gomez, Andrew Morris, Cole Sands, Connor Prielipp, Kody Funderburk

I think that team, goes into the 2027 with substantially more optimism. Now here is a thought exercise for you.

Let's say the next CBA gets agreed to, and there is not only a salary cap but the salary floor so many fans think will fix baseball. If the floor is at $150m as has been commonly bandied about, the Twins, with the above roster, would be well short of that number. So how are you getting there?

The first option is raises all around, with extensions for the arbitration eligible players. The second is to dramatically overpay to fill out the bullpen and the bench. The third option involves hijinks, not dissimilar to what you see in the other sport that famously has a salary floor, the NHL. 

Major League Baseball has had a free market for decades, and most teams still won't be worrying about the cap. Rebuilding teams like the Twins will be worried about hitting the floor. I can see a couple ways of doing this without paying for mediocre players to block elite young prospects.

The first is the salary dump. Let's say the Dodgers really want to keep Teoscar Hernandez, but know that he isn't worth the salary he is making any longer, especially as they try to get under the cap. The Reds have no use for him, but agree to take Hernandez and his salary, and a prospect, then immediately release him. He signs back with the Dodgers for the league minimum.

Hearkening back to the Dodgers, since they seem to have a creative front office and are really the reason this conversation has started in the first place, let's look at the other solution I can foresee. This is a favorite in the NHL, the pass through trade. In this scenario, two top payroll teams are trying to fit a deal with one another, and it isn't working. Let's say the Dodgers are looking to add one of the high priced and disappointing Mets this offseason. To work this one out, the Mets send, let's say Marcus Semien, to Los Angeles. The Mets and Dodgers both want to get under the cap, so they enlist your Minnesota Twins to pay Semien's salary. The Mets and Twins get prospects, the Dodgers get the star infielder. 

A salary cap and salary floor isn't going to redistribute players, but rather salaries. If you look at the media landscape right now, and hear talk about where it is headed, it sounds like all baseball teams will be on a common media plan, and the fiscal advantage of local TV contracts will be gone. The Dodgers and Yankees will only have an advantage if their owners' aggression, and no longer one of market size.

A salary cap will give the big market teams a scapegoat as they pare their payroll, something they are going to need to do in the near future anyway. A salary floor will simply shift the burden to smaller teams, and have them foot the bill for the big market salaries. 

Payroll manipulation isn't going to work how you think it will, and it won't work how you want it to. It will primarily benefit the wealthiest owners, and won't really affect on the field competitiveness. The lengthy rookie and arbitration contracts already take players deep into their prime, and large contracts go to old players as they hit the back end of their best years. The Dodgers have won the last two World Series, but the longest active playoff streak is only 12 years, and it belongs to the other team in Los Angeles, the Angels. There is no parity problem as it relates to market size. It has to do with front office ability and ownership will. (see: Tampa Bay Rays, San Diego Padres) 

Tie up some loopholes in contract rules, absolutely, but also focus on the development of your internal talent and don't encourage a plan that benefits not only billionaire owners, but the wealthiest ones that are already winning. 

Cooking with Ryan: Spreadsheet Salads

 I'm going to be a bit vulnerable here for a minute. About a year ago, I was diagnosed as diabetic, which stinks, but you can't really fight genetics. Mine is well controlled, but will be an ongoing struggle to continue to control. The best way to maintain a healthy blood sugar is through diet and exercise. 

I've dramatically limited my sugar intake, and I am more thoughtful about exercise in terms of timing and the type I do, and I've done well. I'm eating a lot of salad. 

But bagged salads, or salads from restaurants or working off a recipe can get repetitive or expensive. As you may know, I like a little chaos in my life, so I started randomly pulling ingredients to make a salad, using a random number generator. Don't worry, it actually tastes fine most of the time. It's like a salad bar.

So, since I am eating all these salads anyway, and because there are actually a few different things like this for other types of food or beverage, I decided to turn my Spreadsheet Salads into something shared online.

So yeah, come find me on Instagram and Youtube @Spreadsheetsalads. I promise I'll get better at video production.

Turn on your cruise control

 I want to take a moment to address something that has become a growing scourge. It regularly impacts not only my professional life, but it is a hazard on the open roadways. Ladies and gentlemen, when you are able, turn on your cruise control.

As a part of my job, I regularly need to drive long distances. There is nothing more frustrating than seeing the same car over and over. I pass them, they pass me, I pass them, and on and on for miles. Just turn on your cruise control.

On long distance journeys, it helps both the flow of traffic, and your general comfort. Having your foot constantly hovering over the pedals to try to maintain your speed, or to brake or speed up to try to maintain some sort of equilibrium is much more physically and mentally taxing than a simple trek through the prairies needs to be. Turn on the cruise control.

Maintaining a constant speed, and I don't care if it is fast or slow, gives you a bit of predictability. Faster vehicles know that they should stay in the left lane, and slower vehicles know that they need to stay out of your way. If you have, say, slowed down a bit, and a car you passed 30 seconds ago is passing you again, your inclination would be to speed up again. The car passing you is now hung out to dry in the left lane, you are now probably speeding, and the steady rhythm of traffic flow are disrupted. Having a reliable rate, moving to left lanes when passing and otherwise driving in the right lane on more rural or lower traffic highways makes things predictable, and therefore safer.

And also, it's better for gas mileage, and won't annoy all the other drivers who ARE using cruise control. You get to manage your speed, and you don't have to focus on the speedometer, but rather the road in front of you and respond to the various hazards as they come up. The actual, real hazards like weather, deer, or other drivers that can't maintain their speed.

Turn on your cruise control.

Bring back '87: Just get in.

I noted before the deadline that if you don't think the Twins can win with this bullpen, they should take a look at the 1987 Twins. Famously, the 87 Twins were World Champions, and not so famously, had a terrible bullpen.

I got two responses from random Threads users (the only people on Threads are completely random) that tried to gently push back. One said that this Twins team has no Puckett or Hrbek - simply not as good an offensive team. Fair enough. But on the other hand, even though the 87 Twins scored more runs a game than this Twins team does, they were also the 9th highest scoring team in the American League that year. The Twins this year are the highest scoring team in the AL.

Another user said "who will be this team's Jeff Reardon? referring to the closer for that World Series team. Well, if we are talking about ERA, then Yoendrys Gomez is obviously out, because his ERA is half of Reardon's. In fact, Kody Funderburk and Andrew Morris also have better ERAs than Reardon. If you want to talk about WAR, Morris and Gomez are higher already that Reardon for the whole season. Funderburk is a perfect match. So I guess Kody Funderburk is this team's Jeff Reardon? 

That was before the deadline, and we live in a different era. The Twins of 1987 may have looked to bolster their bullpen if that was how things were done back then. The 2026 Twins had a better pen than the 87 version, and then at the deadline, the Twins made the bullpen better. I'm certainly not saying the Twins this year are better than the '87 Twins, but the bullpen sure is.

Those Twins had Frank Viola and Bert Blyleven. Frank Viola in particular was twice as good as the next best player for the Twins, and one of the best in baseball that year. This year, the Twins are the best offense in the league. so they have a clear strength as well (and extrapolated over 162 games, the overall WAR for the offense is very similar to those 87 Twins). The teams aren't THAT different.

The 1987 Twins were a surprise that took advantage of a weak division, and got hot at the right time. Just having the chance to play in the postseason is valuable. Nobody will turn the 87 rings back in because the regular season was mediocre, or they held on to Blyleven a bit too long. 

The first game after the deadline, Joe Ryan was sent home with a potential injury, and I saw a Twins fan lament that the Twins didn't sell. I was initially frustrated by the optics of acquiring Jeff Hoffman (formerly released from Spring Training by the Twins, acquired after he lost his spot as the closer to the guy the Twins just traded to the same team at the last deadline), but I'm never going to be upset about a team seeing an opportunity and going for it.

Postseason chances are precious, and despite how much we love them, prospects are not. A playoff spot means you are guaranteed to play in the playoffs (duh) and you can get there with your known assets. Prospects are not guarantees. Be good enough to get to the playoffs, just like the 87 Twins.