Vigilance

 I will readily admit to you that I don't know much about anything, but I will say that one thing that has made itself evident over the years, and has done so prominently especially in the last decade or so is that the extremely wealthy in the world are primarily focused on retaining their wealth. There are exceptions to this rule, of course, but generally speaking, if you are profoundly rich, it is because you have dedicated your life to accruing that money.

I'll let you determine your own morality, but if you have something you care deeply about, and are passionate about, weather it be money, or internet clout or whatever, you will be protective of it. So let's circle back to the super rich. 

Because of this world view that I have cynically developed over time, whenever billionaires are involved, I suspect there is an element of self preservation or financial exploitation involved. AI leaders are looking for AI regulations from the government right now. The overriding theory is that it is to have guardrails against rogue artificial intelligence. Industrial leaders have supported stricter immigration, despite an increasingly Hispanic workforce/ Major League Baseball wants a salary cap, but it also wants a salary floor. 

AI companies are making these calls for changes to the industry, even as we continue to hear more and more about the high cost of producing artificial intelligence, the less optimistic outlook on the industry, and the slow down in adoption of AI agents. With so many investors in these companies, so much attention and so many promises, I'm sure that these owners are looking for a scapegoat (regulators) while trying to continue to promote their project (look how powerful it is!)

The vilification of immigrants fuels racism at all levels, which effectively fractures the workforce. Foreign workers don't join unions, and payrolls are reduced without the negotiating power. More money to corporate bottom line. 

And baseball owners, too, see the writing on the wall. TV revenue is going to be distributed to all teams, and there will be no advantage for being in a big market. Rather than look like they are getting cheap, they will be able to point to a cap as the reasonon they no longer can afford big new contracts. They will also use the floor as a way to distribute payroll so it is paid by lowe income teams, through pass through trades or buy outs. 

Rich people care about money. They do not care about silly things like people's well being or baseball parity. Maybe I'm wrong on specifics, but be a little circumspect when people make an offer that seems too good to be true. 

In 2027, watching the Twins will come down to every individual player

 My long standing opinion, whether I have been able to fully grasp it or not, is that sports and baseball especially, should be fun. When I started on this writing journey 20 years ago (yikes) I thought that winning is the only way it could be fun. Winning certainly is fun, but scaling the picture down to an individual game and appreciating the gameplay, strategy and environment can be fun, and zooming out, you an appreciate development and the ecosystem of your organization. 

After last years dismantling of the bullpen, and the bad feelings that resulted, along with a butchered attempted sale of the team, it was hard to get too many people bought in on the concept of a fun baseball season. I was optimistic, if not for fun, than for winning. My recipe was to appreciate the development of young players, enjoy areas where the team exceeded expectations and don't put too much stock in the comment section at Twins Daily. 

For most of the season, the Twins were in the hunt, which was fun! They certainly exceeded expectations, and saw enormous development from Taj Bradley and Brooks Lee, continued contribution from Byron Buxton and Kody Clemens, and plenty of leg room at the ballpark for all 6'3" of me. 

It was enough for the Twins to make a move at the deadline to bolster their bullpen. Of course, injury and fatigue dragged down the second half of the season, but on the plus side, we finally got to tap into the vaunted top of the Twins prospect pool. Kaelen Culpepper, Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez are all here now (along with Ben Ross and Aaron Sabato, for good measure).

I worry that next year will be a struggle, even for me, to find the fun. I don't know much about labor negotiations, but I do know that the one we are barreling towards sounds like a real catastrophe in the making. I don't want to go on a salary cap/floor tangent right now, but I think any institution of such a system will have disastrous unforeseen consequences. I think not instituting a system will result in a lockout that costs a big chunk of the season. Already, independent of the Twins, we are looking at some bad vibes. 

At the very least, the team assembly will likely be rushed. It can't possibly be more convoluted than this past offseason, but even if Jeremy Zoll has the green light to add to the payroll, the make up of the roster doesn't lend itself to any specific big money endeavors. So the Twins might either continue with a diminished payroll, go after poor fits, or simply give the playing time to the young emerging players.

There is likely to be a lot of negative energy around baseball, and I don't know how the Twins are going to thread what is left of the offseason and make fans happy, or anticipatory. The glow is coming off of all the young recent debutants, because they will now be expected to contribute. Luke Keaschall had a strong season this year, but he is now lost in the field, which means he must be an excellent hitter. Royce Lewis has strung a couple bad seasons in a row together, and there is a legitimate wonder if he has a place on the team any longer. 

If the younger players don't contribute on their low salaries, then the team is cheap, as they alway are. The player development is insufficient. And frankly, we all saw Edouard Julien, Jose Miranda and Matt Wallner sputter away blazing starts. Fans will go into the season looking for reasons for skepticism. 

I think the correct route for the roster is to let it breathe. Very little should change, except where contracts are expiring, and young players should get their experience at the Major League level. Unfortunately, recent prospect flameouts and a longstanding unwillingness by ownership to spend money will make it easy for the fanbase to move quickly to scapegoating as the team has it's growing pains.

The Twins are a team on the rise, with a bumper crop of young prospects and allegedly, new life in the ownership box. Those should be good indicators of a fun year ahead. Unfortunately, the labor landscape will pollute the offseason, and the narrative surrounding the team doesn't seem to let people view the Twins as ascendent.

The nice thing about a young team is the knowledge that the players will be members of the organization for a while. Get to know the players. Kaelen Culpepper seems to have great energy. Lewis is relentlessly positive. Keaschall and Lee seem to have some quirks lurking below the surface. Walker Jenkins, thus far, seems to have the personality of a block of wood, and as someone with a similar personality, that is fun in it's own way too! 

If I start to lose sight of enjoying the team, I know I can focus on appreciating the players for who they are. Baseball is the cadence of summer, an ongoing story every year. Winning, losing, strategy, development, it's always the players that make it fun.

The Twins' long term legacy

 There are many positions in many different markets that have a heralded status. Quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys, point guard for the Lakers, center for the Pittsburgh Penguins, those kinds of things. Positions that have a stake because of the history of success for that team, and also because of the popularity and identity of the team within the market. 

The Twins have had a common thread that has remained nearly unbroken throughout my entire life, even as it has bucked trends across the sport of baseball, and has transcended regimes in the Twins organization. I don't believe it is something that has ever been intentional, but the fact that the Twins have featured so many successful African American outfielders is, at the very least, a statistical anomaly.

African American participation in youth baseball, right on up through the Major Leagues has been dropping for decades, and in the meantime, the League has drawn more international players, particularly from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela. The Twins have not followed along with either pattern.

Until Emmanuel Rodriguez arrived on the scene, the Twins' only non-American on the roster was Yoendrys Gomez, which hearkened back to the late 2000s, when a reported factor in Carlos Gomez's stalled development was a lack of Spanish speaking coaches in the organization. 

That's pretty on the nose, but it speaks to a larger point: it's hard to be on your own, and it is a lot easier if you are in a new situation with people you have similarities with, especially when they can serve as mentors. Miguel Sano's best season was when Nelson Cruz was around, Luis Arraez first joined a roster with countrymen Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza. 

As a middle aged white guy, I have no idea what it would be like to grow up as a young black ball player, but I bet Byron Buxton does, and before him, Torii Hunter and Ben Revere and Aaron Hicks and all the way to Kirby Puckett and Shane Mack. Coaches can teach fundamentals and strategy, but having someone with a similar background can help you feel comfortable, like you belong and to figure out more important parts of life.

Through the draft, trades and free agency, the Twins have sustained this throughline that was able to include multiple iterations of the "Soul Patrol," and two different stadiums. I think this is pretty cool. I'm mostly here for the statistical anomaly, because I'm not gifted enough to expound on the societal impact and obvious advantages, though there certainly are those, especially in a place like Minnesota. 

I'm not sure that there was any intentionality for the betterment of the Twins, and I am fairly sure there isn't, but this history of black outfielders in the Twins organization has meant a long lasting incubator for talent development that has lasted through multiple generations of Twins general management. What a legacy. 

Is the Bears offense.... .good?

 In my ongoing "Following the Compass" efforts, in which I draw a random game off of a random team's schedule, and try to attend or watch it, I selected the San Diego Padres and the Chicago Bears this year. The Padres game was last month against the Mets, while the Bears game will come next month on Monday night against the Eagles. Since I had children, I've not made it to nearly as many games as the 1 or 2 a year I used to get to, but I still make a point of following teams and watching the games, however I'm able. 

Since I haven't been getting to games and streaming is a more prominent possibility, I am also becoming more invested in the teams. The Padres have been a fun watch all year, especially when my other primary option has been the Twins. If one week is to be judged, it looks like the really fun watch will be the Chicago Bears. 

It's extremely important not to get too hung up on early season results, given how much maturation, development or injury can affect a team moving forward, but seeing Chicago nearly put up 60 points during their opening game of the season is jarring. Even when the Bears have been good in the past, it was on the back of their defense, and a couple of great running backs. Defenses and strong ground games don't often amount to high point totals. 

The Bears have been trying for as long as anyone has been around to find the mix that would help them develop a passing game and score some points. They've drafted or traded for quarterbacks that just never seemed to work out, for decades. These are just the regular starters, the guys who were supposed to start for the Bears, since Jim McMahon won the Super Bowl with the team:
Mike Tomczak
Jim Harbaugh
Erik Kramer
Cade MCNown
Jim Miller
Rex Grossman
Kyle Orton
Jay Cutler
Mitch Trubisky
Justin Fields
and now, finally, Caleb Williams.

Jim Harbaugh was tough, and Rex Grossman led the team to the Super Bowl. Jay Cutler was the longest tenured of the group, but none of them have done what Williams has done: Started every game in two consecutive seasons. In fact, 2024 saw Williams start all 17 games, the first QB to start every game for the Bears since Cutler in 2009. Since that 86 team, it was Harbaugh in 91, Kramer in 95, Grossman in 06 and Cutler. That is the list of season long quarterbacks for the Chicago Bears for the last 40 years. 

Having consistency at quarterback is a product of having a decent offensive line and a real game plan. The Bears hired Ben Johnson to be their coach before last season, and he has installed a new scheme, that for once, is working. Keeping Williams protected is the most important tenet. Letting him work is the next.

For one week, at least, the offense has clicked in 2026. They will play the Vikings in Week 2 to get a little bit more of a test on offense. It's been half a century in the making. 

Now, about that defense. 

This season has gone better than expected.

 It's incredible to be writing about this anniversary, 25 years later. It seems both so distant, something that has always been there, like something I learned in history, but it seems as though it was only yesterday. We are far removed enough that the features and remembrances are all covering how we collectively tried to move on, and a retrospective look back that reminds us that indeed, our lives have been irretrievably altered. I'm going to talk about baseball now, the current Twins team, with the memory of Mike Piazza hitting a home run in the first game back in New York, and the notion that while baseball can be unimportant, it's ability to entertain, distract and delight can be the vital cog in continuing on with our lives. It's important because it's fun. Before I move on today, go ahead and read Cody Christie at Twins Daily, and his retelling of an incredible walk off home run. 

It feels to me that all of the negative nellies around the Twins fan and journalistic base are finally getting their way. The Twins are stumbling into the end of the year, and the same outlets that have been forecasting doom and gloom for the team since the deadline last year are now lamenting another collapse, and are exasperated, ostensibly, at the continued late season struggles the Twins have had lately. 

The Twins will finish below .500, but were competitive for longer than most anticipated this year, and will finish with a better record than many had anticipated when the season started. Until very recently, I would say it has been a fun year. What made it compelling to me was the future cogs of the team that have stepped into important roles.

Taj Bradley has exceeded expectations, and looks to be a rotation fixture, while in the bullpen, Andrew Morris has taken an important role in the bullpen. Before he got hurt, Mick Abel looked capable, and Zebby Matthews has recently seemed to step up. All of those guys are young pitchers that are going to be a part of the future pitching staff for a couple of years. Kendry Rojas acquitted himself well in a long relief role.

On offense, Kody Clemens has had a career year, and will be under team control through his peak. Brooks Lee had question marks at short, then shifted to third base and has also settled into a role as one of the top power hitters in the lineup. He's only 25 , and he could certainly be a 30 home run a year hitter in due time. After very slow starts, Luke Keaschall has become one of the better pure hitters on the team. While Royce Lewis may not ever reach the apex of the potential we saw in 2023, he has shown a willingness to adapt and go where the team asks him with a smile on his face. He's not making that much money, and if you accept what is rather than what could have been, Royce can be a valuable member of the organization.

And the Twins are able to use the tail of the season to evaluate some of the upper echelon of their minor league system. Connor Prielipp has already made the leap early in the year, but Kaelen Culpepper has been electric since joining the team. Heck, even just today, Emmanuel Rodriguez came up and pulled a Kaelen, hitting a homer in his debut, too. Walker Jenkins has struggled, but Alen Roden is waiting in the wings. Roden's biggest flaw, as I can see it, is that his name isn't Walker Jenkins. He will be helpful next year as well.

The team, when you look at how they are constituted, is clearly on the come up. It's a fundamentally different team than it was last year, and especially two years. They already turned over the roster and bottomed out, but are already turning it back around. They are better this year than many thought they would be, and continue to trend ahead. 

There are only a couple of weeks left on the season, but given the long term arc of the team, I would say they are ahead of schedule. Most of the credit comes from the players on the field and the Major League coaching staff, given the tumult behind the scenes. Not many Twins writers in the region will give you this perspective, but things are looking up in Twins Territory.

The 2023 draft, and turning it into 2026 success.

 It's entirely possible that the Indianapolis Colts are going to be stumbling into a decent season this year. Generalized impatience in the NFL is a big part of the reason. Specifically, that impatience, and the effect it has on the Minnesota Vikings are direct reasons why the Colts may be poised for their first divisional win in over a decade. 

There are two areas that the Colts are hoping to turn pressure every team feels into diamonds for themselves. That is to say, there are two elements of the Colts that will be better, thanks to one singular pressure that is felt by teams across the NFL. Find a quarterback, and find him now. 

Back in 2024, the Vikings were moving on from Kirk Cousins, who had sustained a season ending injury and was at the end of his contract. Without a reasonable heir to the position, the Vikings went to the draft looking for a quarterback. The Vikings were not the only team looking for a quarterback, and ultimately, they were the 5th team to select a quarterback at pick number 10. 

The Colts, meanwhile, had Anthony Richardson, who they still thought was the quarterback of the future, and the 15th pick in the draft. They selected Laiatu Latu, their new defensive end, who is now starting on a continually strengthening defense. Latu was the first defensive player drafted in 2023, despite the pick coming halfway through the round. 

Another element of this rush for quarterbacks was the abandonment of previously regarded prospects. The Vikings saw it that year as well. They selected JJ McCarthy with that 10th pick, only to see him fall to injury in the preseason. Journeyman Sam Darnold, who had flamed out in New York and Carolina went to a team with a good system and coach, and some experience under his belt, and left the Vikings back to the playoffs. Darnold's image rehabilitated, left Minnesota to go to Seattle the following offseason, and won the Super Bowl with the Seahawks.

During that 2024 season, the Vikings also picked up Daniel Jones, the castoff from the other New York team to learn in the Vikings system. Minnesota wanted a low cost quarterback to build around for a while, so were committed to McCarthy. The Colts had seen Richardson struggle through injury filled years, and opted to bring in a quarterback with a little bit of experience. Jones came to Indy, and excelled, much like, though not as great a degree as Darnold in Minnesota. 

If you think the pressure to find a quarterback is intense in Minnesota, Darnold and Jones both washed out of New York, where the public glare even harsher. Also, part of the impatience means teams are looking to move on if your guy hasn't clicked during his rookie contract. There are some incredible athletes that are in fortunate situations and achieve immediate success, but then there are others that fall into a place like Giants Stadium and reach an immediate plateau.

What those guys, and many quarterbacks need is the grace, time and resources to develop. Darnold eventually got that in San Francisco, and maybe Jones had that a bit in Minnesota. Again, the Vikings are trying it again with Kyler Murray this season. Indianapolis knew better to throw away the more capable inexpensive option than to circle back to Richardson. They also have Anthony Richardson to thank for feeling comfortable enough to draft for defense and take advantage of the board in 2023. 

But more accurately, they have a leaguewide patience deficit to thank for their position now. We'll see how good it is starting on Sunday. 

The Cap is a trap

 As the 2026 season enters it's final month, we can start to get a picture of what the 2027 lineup will look like. It's full of promise, and now, with young players getting experience playing meaningful baseball, it looks like the next window will open much sooner than we were expecting. 

To wit, the roster on opening day next year may look like this:

C - Victor Caratini
1b - Royce Lewis
2b - Kody Clemens
SS - Kaelen Culpepper
3b - Brooks Lee
OF - Walker Jenkins, Byron Buxton, and one of Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin, Luke Keaschall, Alan Roden or Emmanuel Rodriguez, with another as the DH. 

SP - Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, Baily Ober

RP - Jeff Hoffman, Yoendrys Gomez, Andrew Morris, Cole Sands, Connor Prielipp, Kody Funderburk

I think that team, goes into the 2027 with substantially more optimism. Now here is a thought exercise for you.

Let's say the next CBA gets agreed to, and there is not only a salary cap but the salary floor so many fans think will fix baseball. If the floor is at $150m as has been commonly bandied about, the Twins, with the above roster, would be well short of that number. So how are you getting there?

The first option is raises all around, with extensions for the arbitration eligible players. The second is to dramatically overpay to fill out the bullpen and the bench. The third option involves hijinks, not dissimilar to what you see in the other sport that famously has a salary floor, the NHL. 

Major League Baseball has had a free market for decades, and most teams still won't be worrying about the cap. Rebuilding teams like the Twins will be worried about hitting the floor. I can see a couple ways of doing this without paying for mediocre players to block elite young prospects.

The first is the salary dump. Let's say the Dodgers really want to keep Teoscar Hernandez, but know that he isn't worth the salary he is making any longer, especially as they try to get under the cap. The Reds have no use for him, but agree to take Hernandez and his salary, and a prospect, then immediately release him. He signs back with the Dodgers for the league minimum.

Hearkening back to the Dodgers, since they seem to have a creative front office and are really the reason this conversation has started in the first place, let's look at the other solution I can foresee. This is a favorite in the NHL, the pass through trade. In this scenario, two top payroll teams are trying to fit a deal with one another, and it isn't working. Let's say the Dodgers are looking to add one of the high priced and disappointing Mets this offseason. To work this one out, the Mets send, let's say Marcus Semien, to Los Angeles. The Mets and Dodgers both want to get under the cap, so they enlist your Minnesota Twins to pay Semien's salary. The Mets and Twins get prospects, the Dodgers get the star infielder. 

A salary cap and salary floor isn't going to redistribute players, but rather salaries. If you look at the media landscape right now, and hear talk about where it is headed, it sounds like all baseball teams will be on a common media plan, and the fiscal advantage of local TV contracts will be gone. The Dodgers and Yankees will only have an advantage if their owners' aggression, and no longer one of market size.

A salary cap will give the big market teams a scapegoat as they pare their payroll, something they are going to need to do in the near future anyway. A salary floor will simply shift the burden to smaller teams, and have them foot the bill for the big market salaries. 

Payroll manipulation isn't going to work how you think it will, and it won't work how you want it to. It will primarily benefit the wealthiest owners, and won't really affect on the field competitiveness. The lengthy rookie and arbitration contracts already take players deep into their prime, and large contracts go to old players as they hit the back end of their best years. The Dodgers have won the last two World Series, but the longest active playoff streak is only 12 years, and it belongs to the other team in Los Angeles, the Angels. There is no parity problem as it relates to market size. It has to do with front office ability and ownership will. (see: Tampa Bay Rays, San Diego Padres) 

Tie up some loopholes in contract rules, absolutely, but also focus on the development of your internal talent and don't encourage a plan that benefits not only billionaire owners, but the wealthiest ones that are already winning.