Finding deeper depth

Some people talk about roller coaster seasons, but I don't think there is a finer example than how the Twins have started the 2024 season. Through about a month and a half, the Twins are about where they were expected to be, just with a more interesting path. And also, the team isn't really what we expected.

When the team trimmed payroll, most of the trimming was done in the rotation with Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda moving to new homes. Little was done to replace pitchers - the only starter added was already injured Anthony DeSclafani - that left, and fans were distraught. The pitching hasn't been the problem when things go sideways, however.

The rotation has been steady even if not spectacular. The bullpen, even without Jhoan Duran to start the year, has been spectacular. The pen is a low cost area to do good work, and the Twins have done so, with Griffin Jax and Cole Sands among the success stories. With that in mind, the rotation's steady output is all that they have needed. Selecting either Chris Paddack or Simeon Woods-Richardson as the replacement for Maeda is a clear win, given Maeda's start in Detroit. Gray has been very good in St. Louis, but the luxury of having him in the rotation was probably not worth being on the hook for 3 more years into his mid to late 30s, not when the Twins have faith in their emerging pitchers.

And again, the Twins have the prospect depth to add a frontline starter as the postseason approaches. The Twins shouldn't need an ace pitcher in May, but they would really like a good, healthy extra pitcher in October. 

I've gone off the scent, responding to the various strawmen I usually respond to from the Twins internet. The problem this season, when there are problems, is the hitting. It hasn't helped that sparkplug Royce Lewis has been injured since game 1, but it hurts even more that through the first several weeks of the season, only Alex Kirilloff and Carlos Correa were providing any offensive value. 

When the Twins bats started coming around, so did the teams' fortunes. Sure, getting to face the White Sox helped, but so too did Correa's return from injury, Ryan Jeffers' explosion and Max Kepler's full health. The struggling Willi Castro became the incandescent Willi Castro. Carlos Santana couldn't stop hitting home runs. 

The Twins made a decision to cut payroll, and blamed it on the TV situation. In truth, they were probably loathe to spend a lot of money on old pitchers, and they didn't want to sink a lot of money into position players where youngsters were poised to take over. Last year, bridge players like Michael A. Taylor and Donovan Solano were effective. The one they held on to this year, Kyle Farmer, and his other players in similar roles, including Santana and Manuel Margot, have not picked up the slack, making things look even worse. 

Minnesota simply hasn't had depth that was as effective last season, so when injuries arose early, they couldn't shake out of the funk. The closer to healthy roster, with input from Austin Martin, Trevor Larnach and Jose Miranda has been encouraging. The veteran bridge has disappointed this year, but as the Twins hope for a healthy Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee, while awaiting Walker Jenkins, the key to success might be realizing that the bridge has been built internally. 

The Vikings, if nothing else, had the most interesting draft day

 

The NFL is pervasive. The Timberwolves just swept their way into the second round of the NBA playoffs, their first ever experience being the sweeping team in a postseason series. The Twins are in the midst of a 7 game winning streak (and this is more or less a Twins blog!) and yet here I am, writing about the Vikings and their draft. 

Unless someone from one of your favorite college teams was drafted in the later rounds, it is unlikely that you have any insight into the later rounds. If you are very interested in the draft, or even fairly interested in college football, you will have a pretty good concept of how teams did in the first couple of rounds, or will at least be able to form an opinion on the matter. This is a long way to say that I'm only looking at the first two rounds of the Vikings draft. Maybe one of the late round picks will blossom as well.

For most of us, and really probably for the most part, it was a two person draft for the Vikings. They plucked JJ McCarthy to be their quarterback of the future, and Dallas Turner, a dynamic edge rusher, to replace, they hope, the production that they lost when Danielle Hunter went to Houston. There are plenty of mixed opinions on the arrangement. 

The Vikings pursuit of a quarterback was not a secret. Leading up to the draft, they traded into another 1st round pick, which many suspected would be paired with their original selection to move up as far as they could to nab the QB. That turned out to be an impossible task, as the top three teams, the Bears - after trading away Justin Fields, Commanders and Patriots - after trading away Mac Jones, all needed a quarterback.

The next several teams did not need a quarterback, but there were still at least two available that were intriguing. The behind the scenes manipulations and jockeying led the Vikings to be comfortable with staying where they were. Many of the teams ahead of them wanted to ensure they got the best players at their position, or others simply weren't expected to trade within their division (like the Chargers, who weren't going to trade with the Broncos or Raiders so they could get the QB of their future). The Vikings were in a good position.

And then, the Falcons, the same Falcons who selected Kurt Cousins, leading the Vikings to need a quarterback, selected Michael Penix Jr, taking away one of the QB options Minnesota and all the others had been relying on.

Similar to the Chargers not wanting to help their division rivals, the Bears, picking 9th, weren't going to help the Vikings out, and Minnesota was fortunate enough that Chicago didn't also help the Broncos or Raiders. The Vikings then did the right thing and made a swap with the Jets to prevent the other QB needy teams from moving up for JJ McCarthy. All of this is a preamble to say that the Vikings played this draft as well as they could have. 

My opinion of rookie quarterbacks is that teams will get more mileage out of them with a good foundation around them. Receivers are one thing - and Minnesota has one of the best corps in the league - but also, a veteran and solid offensive line will give young QBs more time to think in the faster game. There are questions about McCarthy, but he probably ended up in the best environment. 

This isn't a Christian Ponder situation. This is a team that has acclimated to winning, and will put McCarthy in the best spot to succeed. No, he may not start right away, or be able to be an elite thrower, but a well constructed offense, and a very good defense will keep him and his team in games, allowing him to learn without panicking. 

And on the topic of the defense, the other selection the Vikings made was on the defensive side of the ball, where edge rusher Dallas Turner was selected. Minnesota made a trade with Jacksonville to mov up an select Turner, a larger jump than the move for McCarthy. Turner was the third overall defensive player drafted. Remember, McCarthy was the 4th overall drafted quarterback. 

With one of the best defensive minds in the game in Brian Flores as the defensive coordinator, I am left with no choice but to believe that Turner was the player that would most significantly improve the Vikings defense next year, despite what other analysts or scouts would believe. The Vikings knew they had to get a quarterback, but it was icing on the cake, I'm sure, that they were also able to get one of the top defenders in this class.

The downside to this draft was how much they had to give up. They are left with only three picks next year, but conversely, ended up making their full 7 picks this year. It's not perfect, especially with next year's situation, but there is still time to add more picks next year, and I appreciate their ability to fill out a draft class in 2024. 

Most reports I have read opining on the Vikings draft class gave them a B- or a C or something in that range, which leans heavily into the fact that they had no day 2 selections. I think given the circumstances and the means at their disposal, Minnesota did an excellent job. They needed a quarterback for the future, and unlike many of the the other teams in a similar spot, they weren't bad enough last season to have a high choice in the draft. McCarthy was not the top prospect in the draft, but he is going to a good home, and the Vikings didn't ultimately have to leverage a whole lot to get him.

They were prepared to expend a bit to get him if they had to, however. Instead of using the resources to move up for a quarterback, the Vikings were able to use them to select an edge rusher who many are already picking to be the Defensive Rookie of the Year. I hope Minnesota fans are applauding the fact that, instead of resting on their laurels, the Vikings leapt at an opportunity.

The Vikings maybe didn't have enough selections, and there is obviously going to be a difference of opinion on Turner, and drafting a quarterback, let alone the 4th quarterback, is always going to raise an eyebrow, but from my outside perspective, it looks like the Vikings did what they had to, and made the most of their situation.

Disproving some common Twins myths

 

I'm including the full highlights of Saturday's game in order to confirm a couple of rumors that weren't in fact, true.

1) The Twins will actually win another game this season. This game ended a 5 game losing streak in which the team looked like they were in a lot of trouble. Of course, their last three wins were against the Tigers, so the dream is that they can even win a game against someone other than Detroit soon. We can keep our fingers crossed.

2) The front office HAS developed a pitcher. Bailey Ober came up through the Falvey/Levine system, after being a 12th round pick, and now is one of the three fully reliable pitchers in the rotation. Louie Varland still could get there, if he shakes his recent rough start, and failing that, could still go back to the bullpen, where he was dominant. That's 40% of the rotation! Joe Ryan made his first start as a Twin, and Pablo Lopez is going to be here a while as well, and say what you will, but I think it takes talent to add to a rotation no matter how you do it. 

Now, as yet to be proven, is whether or not Minnesota can win two games in a row, let alone two games started by home grown talent. Varland takes the mound Sunday afternoon to find out. 

Bad luck doesn't explain everything.

I’ve started attempting to write a post about the Twins struggles with injuries about 5 days ago. I was going to note that they had still been surprisingly competitive. Then, they went ahead and got swept in Baltimore, and continued to look flat in last night’s series opener with the Tigers. So much for being competitive.

There are a great many issues with the Twins, and some of them won’t be resolved with health. There is no offensive depth on the roster outside of a couple of positions, and even at full health, there would be concerns about filling out the roster with more competent at bats when players need a day off. There is also a fundamental area of misfortune that seems to have settled on the Twins that is different from last season.

The injury bug has burrowed deeper on the organization this season, as compared to last, where the injury concerns were more broad. Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda got hurt, so Bailey Ober and Louie Varland stepped up. The Twins lost Jorge Polanco, so Edouard Julien took on the role. No Byron Buxton? How about Michael A. Taylor?

Now a big issue Minnesota has had was not only the injuries in the Major League roster, but also the concurrent injuries to start the year in St. Paul. Brooks Lee, for example, was likely to be the first call up for the Twins if injuries happened, but then he was on the IL before the season started. Max Kepler was hurt early, and the St. Paul Saints were also short Trevor Larnach. Almost immediately, the Twins had to dig deeper when finding people to take important roles.

Austin Martin was expected to be a contributor this year, but not to the level he’s been asked to so far this year. Jose Miranda’s star faded last season, but he is back and playing somewhat regularly. Larnach is healthy again, but I don’t think anyone expects him to be a savior

Again, this is only a small part of the problem. Last season, part of the solution to the early slump and injury bug was Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro stepping up, and both have been atrocious. Edouard Julien hasn’t quite figured out his bat this year, and Christian Vasquez, fully in the role of back up catcher, has been terrible at the plate.

The Twins are going to have to be much better on offense if they want to pull out of their funk. Injuries have certainly been a huge issue, and not just on the Major League roster, but in St Paul as well. It’s a tougher burden to bear, and the healthy players aren’t bearing it well.

Another slow start with a lot of injuries

 Existence as a Twins fan usually involves getting more or less excited about some player, then seeing those hopes dashed almost immediately. The Twins don't so much string you along, as break your heart very quickly. I guess that's nice in a way. This year, Royce Lewis got hurt in the first game, and Carlos Correa got hurt only 10 games later. This is compounded with all the bullpen aches and pains that led up to the season.

Naturally, at the beginning of the season, Lewis was heralded as a breakout player, Carlos Correa was healthy and would get a bounceback player, while the bullpen was seen as a real strength of the roster, so of course those were all players that kept getting nicked up. 

This isn't a surprise at this point. It seems like the Twins are troubled by injury annually, and always early in the season. We speculate on who might fill in should someone get injured, and then we end up with a full season of Bailey Ober because Kenta Maeda got hurt right away. Austin Martin has been on the roster and playing nearly every game already.

Also this season, we've been granted another dreadful start. At the beginning of today's game, three players in the lineup started with an OPS below .300, which is actually pretty terrible. It's an unfortunate trend for as long as I can remember. I think over the course of my nearly 20 years (Jesus, 20 years?) of writing about the Twins online, I've had a nearly annual "who cares about the pitching if they can't hit?" post that comes out this time of year.

One trend this year, however, is that their "Clutch" rating isn't that far below normal. Since 2021, the Twins have the lowest aggregate "clutch" rating, according to Fangraphs, in all of baseball. Essentially, it shows how much better or worse a team does in high leverage situations compared to their normal performance. This should be a stat that levels off over time, and the Twins simply haven't leveled off from their awful situational performances since the pandemic.

This year though, they have hit nearly as well in high leverage situations as in regular play. Unfortunately, that's only because the Twins haven't hit during any situation. They went on an 0-28 streak with runners in scoring position, and it wasn't THAT much worse than they normally hit. 

These three things, the early season injuries, the slow offensive starts and the poor performance in the clutch can all be attributed to bad luck, small samples or variance in their own ways. But the trend is there. This happens every year, and there isn't really an answer (aside from a curse). Maybe it's cultural, or has to do with offseason workouts. 

Back when the Twins were regularly getting to the playoffs and turning into pumpkins, it was clear something about the team was different when they got there. I insisted it was time for a change at the top, to change the team mindset. If the Twins can't get to the playoffs this year, and this season opening funk is a big part of that, it might be time for a change in 2024 as well. There is something off here, and that's the only place I can think to look.

Local talent is staying home

I think there is always an urge for kids who have an opportunity to break free from their parents. Some kids want to go achieve on their own, some just want to get some independence. When it comes to college choices, there are those who want to get a new start and, I don't know, go to Purdue, away from any of their other high school classmates or family But this completely random example is not the norm, I am told. 

While there is an urge to spread wings, most don't want to go too far. A weekend drive home, closeness to friends, comfort with a region, things like that drive that desire. Who knows where that has put the regions athletes throughout the last 50 or so years. Sure, you could go play for the Gophers, otherwise your options were in lower levels or further from home. 

Minnesota for the longest time, had only the University as an option for D-1 athletes. The next closest D-1 school to the Metro was Wisconsin, who rose to prominence about as Minnesota faded. This was certainly aided by help from athletes from the Twin Cities, some of whom may not have really wanted to stray from home.

The Dakotas were even more remote and it's top athletes had to travel even farther. There were no D-1 Schools until the "States" made the football leap. Now there are 4 D-1 Dakota schools. All of the football teams are above average for FCS standards, thanks to being able to attract the best athletes in a broad region without much D-1 competition. Most are pretty decent on the court as well.

Now that the best players from the Dakotas (save for the stray player that ends up at Alabama) or outstate Minnesota have more local destinations if they don't want to leave the region, but also want to play at the top level of their sport. It almost seems like lately, Minnesota has been too obvious a choice, with St. Thomas on the rise, along with neighbors to the west. 

Granted, the Gophers compete in the Big Ten, and it's tough to attract talent at a national level to compete with national level programs, but at a regional level, local talent can compete in mid-major conferences. Obviously the North and South Dakota State success stories are evident on the football field. On the basketball court, the Dakotas and St. Thomas occupied 4 of the top 5 spots in the standings in the Summit League. This is generally an apt description for the Summit League standings.

There aren't other major conference options in Minnesota outside of the Gophers, and they aren't yet a national draw for talent, and a lot of the top tier talent leaks out to other programs. The mid-level talent is now already staying at home, just not with the Gophers, who are likely overlooking those athletes with more ambitious recruiting goals. In the last couple of decades, though, regionally relevant players have been given more D-1 options, and are taking those opportunities. 

The Twins need to hit

I think the local panic meter hit 11 after Bailey Ober's disastrous outing on Sunday in Kansas City. As the third starter in a rotation that lost key components in the offseason, then the bullpen lost key elements in the preseason, it appeared as the pitching staff is going to be a real problem. 

Long term, it will sort itself out. There is enough at the top of the rotation, and steady and reliable options further down in Louis Varland, a healthy Chris Paddack and yes, even Bailey Ober. The bullpen is yet to be a problem, and will be reinforced soon. Ultimately, though, Minnesotans spend too much time worrying about the pitching.

Last year, the Twins had inarguably the best pitching staff they have had in a generation, and ultimately won 87 games. In 2019, their pitching was worse than it is now (Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda were the top, but Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez were regulars in a fairly healthy unit) but managed to win over 100 games for the first time since 1965.

Why? Because they were pounding the heck out of the ball. That was the year that the Twins set home run records and piled on runs nearly every game. Regular season success coincides with the ability to score runs. The Twins were lucky to get to the postseason because of the moribund AL Central, then, as the adage goes, they won in the postseason because pitching wins championships.

To start the season, the Twins have cobbled together 11 runs. 9 of which came in the first two games of the season. Through their first 4 games, only 4 players, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Manuel Margot and Matt Wallner have wOBA above .320, considered to be "average", and Lewis is out, Wallner is a platoon player and Buxton and Margot play the same position. 

If you prefer counting stats, Lewis is the only one with a home run, despite facing the murderers row of pitchers that the Royals offer, and Jakob Junis, a former Royal. It's crucial to get Lewis bat taking cuts, but it shouldn't be THIS crucial.

In the projections for the season, too many people have discounted the Twins chances. Sure, plenty of people have the Twins winning the AL Central, but at or below the win total they had in 2023. I insisted that they would not, because Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa would be back to form, Christian Vazquez would hit better and they would have full seasons featuring Lewis, Edouard Julien, Wallner and Ryan Jeffers. 

It's yet to click at the plate through the first handful of games, and injuries to Lewis and a scare to Max Kepler surely don't help. If the Twins are going to reach the levels that I believe they can, they are going to need to produce more at the plate. If they can't score even 3 runs a game, it won't matter how good their pitching is.