Moving with intention

 The open to the offseason with a flurry of activity. Minor trades, waiver claims, including the Twins losing relief pitchers Eric Orze to the Cubs and Jack Anderson to the Mets. The Twins didn't make any moves to add players yet, aside from offering Ryan Jeffers a qualifying offer. All this, despite my suspicion that November would be active, what gives? 

Put it another way. The Twins have been opening up some spots on their roster, and haven't been working to accumulate fringy relievers or utility players, but have opened the possibility of paying Ryan Jeffers a lot of money next year. Jeffers isn't likely to earn a contract of more than a couple of years, so one year with a valuation of $23m, the value of the qualifying offer, is likely to be enticing. The Twins are gearing up to spend actual money. 

Last year, as the team was looking to fill the roster with warm bodies to fill out the organization, they were active early, acquiring guys like Orze, Tristan Gray and Anthony Banda, letting the rest of the market pass them by. That the Twins didn't jump in on the market - and there were certainly teams behind them in he waiver claim order that grabbed players - has to be seen as a positive for those that want to see an increased payroll. 

There are still 25 days until the lockout is scheduled to begin, and that is probably going to be reduced a bit by Thanksgiving, and how out of pocket players, agents and front office executives are. The Twins were selectively out of the market so far so they can be more intentional later. Part of that will likely involve Ryan Jeffers.

Now, watch him hit a dinger.

On the move in November

We are in what will likely be a temporary lull in baseball activity. The Milwaukee Brewers are baseball's champions, and we are a little over a month from what is likely to be a protracted, painful lockout. In the intervening days, if recent history is any indication, will be marked by big moves with teams hoping to get business done before the rules potentially change. 

The last time we went through this rigamarole, the Twins were content to wait out the lockout, and then did their work, trading away Josh Donaldson and signing Carlos Correa. That was also under a different Pohlad and a different GM. Given the current Pohlad's machinations, and a new GM likely seeking to ingratiate himself with the boss, I suspect we might get a bit more action this month, before everything shuts down.

It's only natural to suspect that the free agent market might take a bit of time to develop, but by mid-November, I think there could be activity there. Before that, I think trades are going to be the name of the game. Jeremy Zoll has shown some appetite for making trades, though he hasn't had a move to swing for the fences yet (justifiably), so it will be interesting to see how he tries to do that.

How would I do that? Oh, well thank you for asking. I have some ideas! First, I also have a thought, which comes up every year but nobody feels comfortable admitting. If you are looking to make a significant trade, to get something worthwhile in return, it's probably going to hurt. You aren't going to supplement your team simply by giving away the guys you have no use for any longer. Sure, Trevor Larnach or Royce Lewis may not be great fits on the roster moving forward, but they are also not going to bring back blue chip prospects or players that are currently better than they are. 

So where do you want to cut from the roster? That seems to be the hard question. I've said all along that subtracting from the bullpen is always the safest bet, which is what happened two deadlines ago, but that isn't an option this time. Right now, there is a bumper crop of prospects. Specifically, four of their top 10 prospects are catchers. Acknowledging that Ryan Jeffers is probably not coming back, and Victor Caratini is the only show in town right now, the Twins have some room to maneuver. 

A trade built around the centerpiece from the Jhoan Duran trade, Eduardo Tait, or fast rising Khadim Diaw seems like a starting point. Another option, depending on the big game they are trying to land, is one of the shortstop prospects, Kaelen Culpepper or Marek Houston. Again, if you like any of these players, that's the point. Other teams will like them too. So with some combination of prospects, where do the Twins look for help?

That's another tricky question. The Twins are certainly looking for bullpen help, and would probably improve with an even deeper rotation/ Mick Abel and Pablo Lopez will return, but at what effectiveness? Personally, my wish list would point directly at the offense. After Byron Buxton, there isn't a lot of right handed power available to the Twins. 

I referenced MLB Trade Rumors' top 50 trade candidates, and it involves quite a lot of pitchers, and a heck of a lot of left handed bats. In fact, the top righty that I noticed that didn't come from the AL Central was Teoscar Hernandez. Do the Dodgers want any of those prospects? Probably, and the Twins should be frightened to give up whomever the Dodgers would want. The point remains that the trade market for the Twins isn't lining up for that right handed bat. The Astros also have Christian Walker available, and the Twins expressed an interest when they sent Carlos Correa to Houston, but for the money owed Walker, I'm not sure there is a perfect fit here, either.

If the Twins are going to get frisky on the trade market, then it will likely have more to do with pitchers. There are plenty of those available every year, and a couple of them play for Dealin' Jerry Dipoto in Seattle. I have no idea how Dipoto or Zoll value their players or prospects, but I can envision a match between the Twins and Mariners, with prospects like Tait or Houston going to Seattle, with George Kirby coming back to Minnesota. MLBTR listed Kirby and Emerson Hancock as possibilities, but given the Twins intent to contend now, getting the experienced arm outweighs the potential. Besides, Kirby in Minnesota, you know?

That's the big swing. Maybe the Astros and Twins line up for a move around Trevor Larnach and Christian Walker, but I'm not convinced. There will be smaller moves involving him, and perhaps Royce Lewis, but they won't return much, maybe a useful middle reliever, but nothing earth shattering. 

Later in the month, the free agency market will open up. This is where the Twins will likely augment their bullpen and find that right handed bat. I don't think the bullpen will come together until the lockout is over, however the Twins will snag one of those bats they need. The most natural solution would be to bring back Ryan Jeffers, though he may have a market hat precludes the Twins. As a replacement, I think Tyler Stephenson is the right fit, as an offense first, right handed catcher, who bats from the right side. 

Those are my big predictions for what November will have in store for the Twins. For a team that has always worked painfully slowly, the first indication of a new attitude at the top will be a fast start to the offseason. Pressure from a labor dispute may make that even more likely. 

Consistency at the top.

 Well, two small market teams in the Rays and Brewers are going to kick off the World Series tonight, and thus proves that there is no need for a salary cap, lockout cancelled, we are good to go! 

No, obviously, this doesn't mean that, but I do think it underscores something that I have believed for a long time. Money doesn't matter as much to a good front office so much as consistency does. Obviously, it also takes talent and know how, but the ability to stay in charge and run a plan for several years is extremely valuable.

David Stearns left he Brewers a couple years ago, but they promoted Matt Arnold from within. Craig Counsell went to manage the Cubs, and the promoted Pat Murphy from within. The same messages, the same mentality and the same restrictions on the team have stayed in place, and as a result, Arnold and Murphy knew what they could do and how they could build. 

The Rays have Eric Neander in the president's role, and he has been with the organization for decades, while Kevin Cash has now been the manager for 12 years himself. They have never been able to spend money, and have regularly and effectively always had to look a couple of steps ahead. 

That's the take away, and what we're going to find out if, after the next CBA there are payroll restrictions that it was never money holding teams back. It was competence. The Rays have always had bad ownership and a great front office. The Mets pump money into the organization, and are a disaster.

The Pohlads, for all their faults, were loathe to move on from Terry Ryan despite woeful results in the 90s. Ryan really threw a wrench in the plans for contraction at the turn of the century by making the team competitive after several years already on the job. He and Ron Gardenhire weren't necessarily the most skilled at baseball strategy, but the organization and players were able to rely on consistent messaging and expectations, which was more than most of the AL Central could say. 

The last few years have featured an unbelievable amount of tumult. First, there was a cut to the payroll, followed by a change in owner management followed by an allowance for a larger payroll. The Twins front office was ready to strategize around one number, and it took a while, but they became able to strategize around the lower number, only to have it changed again. 

The Twins will benefit from having Jeremy Zoll as an internal promotion, and from Derek Shelton returning after time spent outside the organization. Their inherent talent remains to be seen, but there will be a benefit of a common goal over at least a few years. They will also learn that the Brewers, Rays and even the Dodgers are going to be good, regardless of what the payroll situation is. 

Left behind

 

As many long time readers may know, I have adopted Rosenborg BK as one of "my" teams. My grandmother's family came from Trondheim, Norway, where Rosenborg calls home, and especially after visiting Trondheim myself, it was easy to have an affinity from that town. Grandma wasn't a sports fan, but if you knew her, you would probably want to root for Rosenborg too.

It helps that Rosenborg have historically been the best team in the Norwegian pyramid. They have won the Eliteserien 26 times, played over 150 matches in the UEFA Champions League (including getting past the Group Stage a couple of times) and featured Steffen Iverson, Nicklas Bendtner, John Carew and Morten Gamst Pederson. 

Up until about the Pandemic, Rosenborg was level with their number one rival, Molde. Molde looked like they were going to pull ahead of Rosenborg, but they failed to capitalize on a couple of good seasons, primarily because they lost their internationally regarded manager, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer on two different occasions.

Meanwhile, the rest of Norwegian football was catching up. Their country coefficient has now improved to the point that Norway is granted two teams in the Champions League qualification. Not only that, but both teams that qualified for Champions League qualification, indeed qualified for the group stage. The real surprise, though, is that neither team came from the central Norwegian coast.

Bodo/Glimt is from the Arctic Circle, and Viking is based in Oslo, and they are currently a part of the expanded Champions League format. Last year, Bodo were the darlings, knocking out Inter Milan in the knock out stage, and putting a scare into Portugal's Sporting. 

This year, Bodo and Viking are in the top two positions again. Tromso, another Arctic Circle team is in third. Two spots to play in Europe's top competition, and there is again no chance for the top team, historically, from Europe, and or their top rival from the last decade and beyond, to capitalize on Norwegian soccer's resurgence.

Rosenborg is back up to 5th this season, and has a line on a potential spot in the Europa Conference league, assuming that Bodo or Viking win the Norwegian Cup, but it feels like Norway has turned into Germany, Spain, or one of the other big European soccer nations with one, maybe a couple of teams with a stranglehold on the domestic competition. 

Something to watch for is what this means for player movement in the next few years. Not only is Norway stronger on the club level, but Norway also made a run at the World Cup. Bodo is already home to several national team players, and could be enticing for other players interested in remaining internationally relevant, but wanting to come home. 

This is the strongest Norway has been on the football pitch, in terms of club strength and player development. For the longest time, it seemed like Norway made a leap domestically, it would be led by Rosenborg and Molde. Instead, they are watching as the center of of Norwegian football moves to Oslo and the far north. 

Even if it comes about, a payroll increase wouldn't mean much.

 

Thus far, Tom Pohlad has been a man of his word. After saying they were going for it before the season, they snapped up a couple of free agents (the market was bare by then). They attempted to remain in contention by buying at the deadline. Now, he confirmed that the Twins' payroll will increase in 2027. Many fans are rightfully skeptical, given the tradition of Pohlads dicking over Minnesotans, but this specific fan wants to know.... what does that even mean?

There is a question of valuation, certainly. Pohlad didn't say how much the payroll would increase. Would it be naturally, through payroll increases via arbitration? Or are they expecting to add free agents to fill targeted rolls or simply to be big names to draw to the ballpark? Or is Pohlad simply suggesting that he believes there will be a salary floor next year?

All reporting indicates that the proposals for a payroll floor indicate a payroll higher than what the Twins are projected at for next year. If this is all that Pohlad is anticipating, then well, that is typical Pohlad business. An increased payroll won't even be that beneficial, since a third to a half of all teams would need to raise the payroll as well, all without more talent in the game. 

Lets hope that the Twins are looking at targeted investments, then. The Twins are going to be locked in next year with Byron Buxton, Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, Kaelen Culpepper, as well as Kody Clemens, and perhaps Austin Martin in the infield. That leaves catcher and first base as primary options. Ryan Jeffers is the best catcher on the market this year, and may desire to return to Target Field. First basemen aren't typically that expensive. There is ongoing debate as to whether or not Royce Lewis deserves another shot at figuring out his bat.

Regardless, it appears the offensive side of the ball is going to be fairly inexpensive, and there aren't many obvious spots for large investments. The bullpen saw investment at the deadline, and a few arms may be added, but like first base, and even more so, relief pitchers aren't terribly expensive. The starting pitching depth might even be a route to patching bullpen holes. Joe Ryan, Taj Bradley, Dean Kremer, Bailey Ober, Zebby Matthews, Conor Prielipp, Pablo Lopez, Mick Abel, Kendry Rojas and David Festa will all have a shot at the bullpen. A case can be made for finding an A+ #1 starter, but good luck finding one on the market this year. 

I suspect that Pohlad is trying to pull a fast one, as usual, and the scenario is that he expects a salary floor, and the payroll will increase by taking on bad contracts from teams that know the Twins are obligated to reach a minimum salary. There aren't any expensive problems on the Twins roster right now.

If the lockout is solved without the salary floor, I think the answer is payroll through depth, if Pohlad is serious. Ryan Jeffers is a catcher in an organization with a bumper crop of upcoming catching prospects. This is his time to cash in, and the Twins don't have the need to give him the contract that he should want - something long term, as his knees aren't going to last forever, I could see them looking for a veteran to pair with Victor Caratini, which, again, isn't a high priced commodity, but it makes sense in the current roster make up. 

Jeffers would be the only logical big name acquisition to substantially increase payroll. They will likely go with rookie scale contract players in several rotation spots as well as several spots in the lineup, and this is exactly the roster they should go with, given their position. Without Jeffers or Josh Bell on the payroll, and perhaps without Trevor Larnach either, the payroll starts to trickle down. Arbitration and patched in depth may bring the whole payroll back up a bit, but the only real logical way to get a big bump in salary is with a salary floor. 

And that wouldn't be particularly impressive or impactful.

Vigilance

 I will readily admit to you that I don't know much about anything, but I will say that one thing that has made itself evident over the years, and has done so prominently especially in the last decade or so is that the extremely wealthy in the world are primarily focused on retaining their wealth. There are exceptions to this rule, of course, but generally speaking, if you are profoundly rich, it is because you have dedicated your life to accruing that money.

I'll let you determine your own morality, but if you have something you care deeply about, and are passionate about, weather it be money, or internet clout or whatever, you will be protective of it. So let's circle back to the super rich. 

Because of this world view that I have cynically developed over time, whenever billionaires are involved, I suspect there is an element of self preservation or financial exploitation involved. AI leaders are looking for AI regulations from the government right now. The overriding theory is that it is to have guardrails against rogue artificial intelligence. Industrial leaders have supported stricter immigration, despite an increasingly Hispanic workforce/ Major League Baseball wants a salary cap, but it also wants a salary floor. 

AI companies are making these calls for changes to the industry, even as we continue to hear more and more about the high cost of producing artificial intelligence, the less optimistic outlook on the industry, and the slow down in adoption of AI agents. With so many investors in these companies, so much attention and so many promises, I'm sure that these owners are looking for a scapegoat (regulators) while trying to continue to promote their project (look how powerful it is!)

The vilification of immigrants fuels racism at all levels, which effectively fractures the workforce. Foreign workers don't join unions, and payrolls are reduced without the negotiating power. More money to corporate bottom line. 

And baseball owners, too, see the writing on the wall. TV revenue is going to be distributed to all teams, and there will be no advantage for being in a big market. Rather than look like they are getting cheap, they will be able to point to a cap as the reasonon they no longer can afford big new contracts. They will also use the floor as a way to distribute payroll so it is paid by lowe income teams, through pass through trades or buy outs. 

Rich people care about money. They do not care about silly things like people's well being or baseball parity. Maybe I'm wrong on specifics, but be a little circumspect when people make an offer that seems too good to be true. 

In 2027, watching the Twins will come down to every individual player

 My long standing opinion, whether I have been able to fully grasp it or not, is that sports and baseball especially, should be fun. When I started on this writing journey 20 years ago (yikes) I thought that winning is the only way it could be fun. Winning certainly is fun, but scaling the picture down to an individual game and appreciating the gameplay, strategy and environment can be fun, and zooming out, you an appreciate development and the ecosystem of your organization. 

After last years dismantling of the bullpen, and the bad feelings that resulted, along with a butchered attempted sale of the team, it was hard to get too many people bought in on the concept of a fun baseball season. I was optimistic, if not for fun, than for winning. My recipe was to appreciate the development of young players, enjoy areas where the team exceeded expectations and don't put too much stock in the comment section at Twins Daily. 

For most of the season, the Twins were in the hunt, which was fun! They certainly exceeded expectations, and saw enormous development from Taj Bradley and Brooks Lee, continued contribution from Byron Buxton and Kody Clemens, and plenty of leg room at the ballpark for all 6'3" of me. 

It was enough for the Twins to make a move at the deadline to bolster their bullpen. Of course, injury and fatigue dragged down the second half of the season, but on the plus side, we finally got to tap into the vaunted top of the Twins prospect pool. Kaelen Culpepper, Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez are all here now (along with Ben Ross and Aaron Sabato, for good measure).

I worry that next year will be a struggle, even for me, to find the fun. I don't know much about labor negotiations, but I do know that the one we are barreling towards sounds like a real catastrophe in the making. I don't want to go on a salary cap/floor tangent right now, but I think any institution of such a system will have disastrous unforeseen consequences. I think not instituting a system will result in a lockout that costs a big chunk of the season. Already, independent of the Twins, we are looking at some bad vibes. 

At the very least, the team assembly will likely be rushed. It can't possibly be more convoluted than this past offseason, but even if Jeremy Zoll has the green light to add to the payroll, the make up of the roster doesn't lend itself to any specific big money endeavors. So the Twins might either continue with a diminished payroll, go after poor fits, or simply give the playing time to the young emerging players.

There is likely to be a lot of negative energy around baseball, and I don't know how the Twins are going to thread what is left of the offseason and make fans happy, or anticipatory. The glow is coming off of all the young recent debutants, because they will now be expected to contribute. Luke Keaschall had a strong season this year, but he is now lost in the field, which means he must be an excellent hitter. Royce Lewis has strung a couple bad seasons in a row together, and there is a legitimate wonder if he has a place on the team any longer. 

If the younger players don't contribute on their low salaries, then the team is cheap, as they alway are. The player development is insufficient. And frankly, we all saw Edouard Julien, Jose Miranda and Matt Wallner sputter away blazing starts. Fans will go into the season looking for reasons for skepticism. 

I think the correct route for the roster is to let it breathe. Very little should change, except where contracts are expiring, and young players should get their experience at the Major League level. Unfortunately, recent prospect flameouts and a longstanding unwillingness by ownership to spend money will make it easy for the fanbase to move quickly to scapegoating as the team has it's growing pains.

The Twins are a team on the rise, with a bumper crop of young prospects and allegedly, new life in the ownership box. Those should be good indicators of a fun year ahead. Unfortunately, the labor landscape will pollute the offseason, and the narrative surrounding the team doesn't seem to let people view the Twins as ascendent.

The nice thing about a young team is the knowledge that the players will be members of the organization for a while. Get to know the players. Kaelen Culpepper seems to have great energy. Lewis is relentlessly positive. Keaschall and Lee seem to have some quirks lurking below the surface. Walker Jenkins, thus far, seems to have the personality of a block of wood, and as someone with a similar personality, that is fun in it's own way too! 

If I start to lose sight of enjoying the team, I know I can focus on appreciating the players for who they are. Baseball is the cadence of summer, an ongoing story every year. Winning, losing, strategy, development, it's always the players that make it fun.