What is the point of a baseball team?

 

There is something of a furor in the Twins blogging community lately, reflecting on last year's trade deadline sell off. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported that the Red Sox offered Payton Tolle and Franklin Arias, two prospects that are very highly regarded, for Joe Ryan, and the deal didn't come through. In a stunning turn of events, this means that some Twins fans and writers are upset that the burning down of the team last year didn't go far enough.

They are saying this with a straight face as the Twins are currently contemplating adding to the roster that the Twins would be better off without their #1 starter. This is clearly a lack of faith in the current squad, and an inability to believe that, for once, the Twins catch fire in the playoffs. I know Minnesota is suffering from a very real curse, but on the other hand, every single other team in the AL Central has reached a World Series since 2005, which is to say all you need is a ticket to the playoffs, and weird things can happen. Even if that is a great trade for the Twins on paper, I'm not mad it wasn't executed.

I have a couple of thoughts on the whole situation, as it happened then, and why it isn't happening now. First, and I don't want to call into question Alex Speier, because that's not the impression I am trying to give, but it is possible that the report is not true. Teams and agents put rumors into the press all the time to get a narrative going. The Red Sox lackluster deadline last year earned some negative reactions from fans. Feeding information through the press as if to say "look how unreasonable the Twins were, we couldn't have done anything else!" It's possible, but I don't want to speculate further down this path, because some may misinterpret it as dishonest or underhanded, when I think it's just gamesmanship.

Thoughts two and three are closely related. The Twins were surprised themselves by the extent of the sell off. They were going to trade their rentals, like Harrison Bader, but they had set a high price for Jhoan Duran, and then the Phillies met it. As the sell off of rental pieces continued, Griffin Jax asked for a trade, then the Astros and Carlos Correa pushed for a trade, and finally, the only trade that truly came out of nowhere, Louis Varland was traded to Toronto. 

Importantly, Carlos Correa was the only salary dump, and just as importantly, the future rotation and position players were left intact, while the bullpen was a shambles. Initially, this wasn't meant to be as broad a fire sale as it was until Jax and Correa indicated their desires. The Twins had no intention of trading Ryan. Because of that, this leads me to my second point: The Twins hadn't internally priced Joe Ryan yet. Perhaps the Red Sox made just the offer that was proposed, and the Twins hadn't figured out what the appropriate sell point was, like they had for members of their bullpen.

:Let's also circle back to the Jhoan Duran trade for a second. This is a bit like comparing apples and oranges, because of their roles, but Duran netted two top prospects in Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait. Abel is currently on the IL, and has missed most of the season, while Tait has fallen in the Twins prospect rankings after a slow start in the organization. This is to say, there is no guarantee that prospects will hit. Relievers are wild cards, so trading them for prospects is always going to be more palatable than starters, who tend to be more of a commodity.

If you thought my last comparison was apples to oranges, hold on. Last fall, the Colts traded several draft picks and a receiver for Sauce Gardner, one of the best cornerbacks in football. After the trade, a former assistant with the Eagles was on a podcast, talking about how clear a win it was for the Colts despite the draft capital. He noted that trading picks for players was how the Eagles have received so much sustained success. Draft picks are lottery tickets, but getting a player that you already know about is a guarantee, and usually ends up being the "winning" side of a trade. In this analogy, the draft picks are minor league players. 

We can second guess and eventually look back on a Joe Ryan non-trade as a missed opportunity, but that depends on Tolle and Arias' career, not their current stature. A real missed opportunity is failing to embrace a playoff chance. The Twins have been competitive all year in an admittedly bad league, which means they don't need to make big swings to get there, and the team is reliant enough on young talent that they should be even better next year.

And they'll do it this year because they have Joe Ryan.

Last minute decisions, likely to lead to inactivity.

I've changed a lot of opinions over the years, but one I have remained consistent on is that if there a chance at the postseason, you have to go for it. The AL Central isn't that good, and frankly, the entire American League is pretty rough. The Dodgers have ruined out expectations of what postseason baseball can be like, but really, once you are in, anything can happen. The Twins should realize that especially, given the teams that one titles in Minnesota. Pedestrian in the regular season, hot at the right time. 

There are two weeks until the deadline, and the Twins are likely to wait right up until the final day to make a decision. They have been up and down all year, and one last up could encourage an aggressive shopping spree, while a drop off will turn into a true sell. 

Many eyes will be looking at the upcoming 4 game set with Cleveland, given the team's are duking it out for the AL Central, and a Wild Card spot. More favorable is a subsequent homestand with the A's and Royals, two teams that are already destined to sell at the deadline. If that gets sideways on the Twins, then the trajectory of the deadline is completely different. 

The Twins will need pitching. Starting pitching is becoming increasingly important, as an aspirational acquisition. The need is going to be even more apparent as it was announced that Mick Abel won't be returning this year. The Twins still have a little bit of depth, with Connor Prielipp ready to return fairly soon, but if Andrew Morris and Mike Paredes are evidence, having some of their better starting prospects in the bullpen isn't a bad thing.

There has been speculation that the Twins might be looking to move on from Ryan Jeffers or Trevor Larnach. Both are having terrific seasons, and trading them would seem a setback for the team, but would also register as faith in the prospects that the team is loath to trade. Jeffers missed a good chunk of the season, and Victor Caratini and Alex Jackson were capable, while Walker Jenkins is poised to assume Larnach's roster spot. 

Finding a team that needs offense and has pitching to burn is the trick, though. I would say that there aren't going to be many teams that are both in contention and would be willing to give up a decent pitcher. In the end, that means the Twins would likely need to make a couple of different moves in order to move the assets they are willing to move and attain the assets they want. 

This is a complicated ask for a GM in his first trade deadline. I don't think that the stakes are high enough to nail this deadline for Jeremy Zoll to get too crazy in the next two weeks. Given the complexity of the needs and assets to spend, there isn't an easy or obvious path to follow. There will be good offers for Jeffers, especially from the Yankees, and I expect the popular catcher to move on. I don't know that it will be possible to make an impact addition. 

If things stay about the same, lurking in the race, with no discernable momentum, I think that is the deadline. Jeffers goes, and Tommy Nance, and perhaps another low impact reliever are the additions. Not much. Unless positive or negative momentum emerge. Then we will have a different conversation.

Meandering thoughts about streaming TV

Streaming has generally changed the way visual media can be presented to us. A lot has been said about the accessibility of it, and our ability to watch what we want, when we want. We binge shows instead of week to week or even all summer. The dissemination has changed, but it's also changed what is being made, and what we look for. 

Going back 20-40 years ago, you get some great shows, cultural touchstones, like Friends or Cheers that got a decade on the air. There are procedurals that were highly regarded, and some remain on the air. Part of the reason that these shows had such great lasting power is because of the writing and acting. Particularly the sitcoms I mentioned, some were popular because of the serialized continuity of the shows, but that wasn't quite it. The shows offered familiar settings and characters. They were more lived in.

Now with streaming, less is about the setting or the characters, and they are often more story driven. Sure, characters and setting matter, but the show is unlikely to click with viewers if there isn't a broad story arc. The story is generally done after a few seasons of good writing, and the pressure doesn't come from networks to keep a ratings darling churning. Viewers aren't trying to get back to a familiar place next season, with old TV friends, but rather, they are moving on to the next story. 

This has changed the expectations for movies as well. Where once they were the home of good story telling, they are now the home of higher production values. Superhero movies belong in theaters, on big screens with huge special effects. Deeper explorations of character, or introspective plots are told in a ten hour limited run series. The stories are more effectively told than when you only get 90 minutes. Who wants to leave the house anyway?

I'm nostalgic for an era where I could work on something with a familiar character, or repetitive plot on in the background. I wonder if, for many people, Reels has replaced syndicated TV? Now that I have kids, going to the theater feels like fun again, but I'm not sure it is because I really wanted to see Gabby's Dollhouse on the big screen. 

No doubt, the quality of streaming shows steadily improves, and more worthwhile stories are being told. It's a greater investment in attention, is not appointment viewing.