I've changed a lot of opinions over the years, but one I have remained consistent on is that if there a chance at the postseason, you have to go for it. The AL Central isn't that good, and frankly, the entire American League is pretty rough. The Dodgers have ruined out expectations of what postseason baseball can be like, but really, once you are in, anything can happen. The Twins should realize that especially, given the teams that one titles in Minnesota. Pedestrian in the regular season, hot at the right time.
There are two weeks until the deadline, and the Twins are likely to wait right up until the final day to make a decision. They have been up and down all year, and one last up could encourage an aggressive shopping spree, while a drop off will turn into a true sell.
Many eyes will be looking at the upcoming 4 game set with Cleveland, given the team's are duking it out for the AL Central, and a Wild Card spot. More favorable is a subsequent homestand with the A's and Royals, two teams that are already destined to sell at the deadline. If that gets sideways on the Twins, then the trajectory of the deadline is completely different.
The Twins will need pitching. Starting pitching is becoming increasingly important, as an aspirational acquisition. The need is going to be even more apparent as it was announced that Mick Abel won't be returning this year. The Twins still have a little bit of depth, with Connor Prielipp ready to return fairly soon, but if Andrew Morris and Mike Paredes are evidence, having some of their better starting prospects in the bullpen isn't a bad thing.
There has been speculation that the Twins might be looking to move on from Ryan Jeffers or Trevor Larnach. Both are having terrific seasons, and trading them would seem a setback for the team, but would also register as faith in the prospects that the team is loath to trade. Jeffers missed a good chunk of the season, and Victor Caratini and Alex Jackson were capable, while Walker Jenkins is poised to assume Larnach's roster spot.
Finding a team that needs offense and has pitching to burn is the trick, though. I would say that there aren't going to be many teams that are both in contention and would be willing to give up a decent pitcher. In the end, that means the Twins would likely need to make a couple of different moves in order to move the assets they are willing to move and attain the assets they want.
This is a complicated ask for a GM in his first trade deadline. I don't think that the stakes are high enough to nail this deadline for Jeremy Zoll to get too crazy in the next two weeks. Given the complexity of the needs and assets to spend, there isn't an easy or obvious path to follow. There will be good offers for Jeffers, especially from the Yankees, and I expect the popular catcher to move on. I don't know that it will be possible to make an impact addition.
If things stay about the same, lurking in the race, with no discernable momentum, I think that is the deadline. Jeffers goes, and Tommy Nance, and perhaps another low impact reliever are the additions. Not much. Unless positive or negative momentum emerge. Then we will have a different conversation.
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