Inevitable collapse

 Growing up a Twins fan, the rest of what would become the AL Central have always been rivals. Two teams have always stood out, Cleveland and the Chicago White Sox. The Tigers came over from the East when the divisions broke into three, but weren't good for a while when that happened. The Royals were never any good, and didn't incur a wrath in me. 

Cleveland was regularly the team at the top of the division, and seemed like the most direct competition for the Twins for the first decade or so, but then, when I happened to be living in northwest Indiana, surrounded by a bunch of Sox fans, Chicago won the World Series. Insufferable.

With that background in mind, I would like to think that this post doesn't stem from jealousy, but it sure might. What I want to know is why collapse is assumed for the Twins, but not the White Sox? Make no mistake, each team has the record they have deserved. The White Sox have been a better team than the Twins this year. The Twins, though, aren't where they are at because of some good fortune.

I'm not talking about the perception of the Twins or White Sox, I am talking about their actual position. The White Sox, if the season ended today, would be the AL Central champions, and the Twins are only a couple of games out of the final Wild Card spot, and 4.5 games behind Chicago. 

Despite there being only a 4.5 game difference in the standings, the narrative around the teams is markedly different. There was a recent piece on The Athletic or ESPN that reevaluated preseason predictions. Now, a quarter of the writers thought the White Sox were a playoff team. Nobody thought the Twins were going to be a playoff team. This was written around Memorial Day, I recall, because at the time, the Twins were in playoff position. 

The Sox are a young team, younger than the Twins. Minnesota had a playoff team in 2023, before ownership decided not to invest in the team. More importantly, the young talent in the organization failed to launch, and the starting pitching couldn't sustain the same level of success and health over the next two seasons. Collapses resulted. Are Twins collapses just assumed now?

The greatest bugaboo in those two seasons was a reliance on young players that couldn't come through. Edouard Julien is in Colorado, Matt Wallner is in St. Paul. Brooks Lee is hitting. Austin Martin gives good at bats. Royce Lewis tinkered and came back stronger. Kody Clemens is now in year two of what seems like a peak. Luke Keaschall is settling in after a slow start. The Twins are also more willing to lean on veterans on hot streaks, like Ryan Kreidler and Tristan Gray. They have a new manager whispering different things to the players. 

Like I said, the White Sox have been better this year, but they also don't have many players with a sustained track record of success either. Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery and of course Muneteka Murukami are in their break out seasons. Why are they assumed to be less likely to fall off in the second half?

The Twins have a better rotation than the White Sox, even with injuries. The White Sox have a better closer with Seranthony Dominguez, and Grant Taylor has been a developmental success, but the rest of their bullpen is just as cobbled together as the Twins'. All in, I would prefer the Twins' arms to those of the White Sox. 

To my eye, there isn't a significant talent gap between the Twins and White Sox, and I think a big reason why the Sox better than expected start is embraced while the Twins' is not is because of the perception I mentioned earlier. The White Sox have spent recent years in the baseball wilderness. Any success is going to be embraced. The Twins problems seem self inflicted, torching good will after finally winning in the playoffs and completely botching an ownership transition this year.

Importantly, they didn't spend much, but they did spend on players that are connecting, in Murakami and Dominguez. The Twins spent a little, but Victor Caratini and Josh Bell haven't been as sensational. The White Sox are trending up. Somehow, the Pohlad family is so unlikable that Jerry Reinsdorf looks great in comparison. 

Bullpens are easy

 There has only been one player in the history of baseball to be named Yoendrys. He currently plays for the Minnesota Twins, and is having a very good start to his career in the organization. 

The Twins unrelenting pursuit of bullpen arms has lead them to, among other players, Yoendrys Gomez. Unlike the rest of the curious cast of characters the Twins have added, Gomez has settled in, and if things continue at the pace they are currently at, the Twins audio-visual department may need to come up with a bitchin' entrance for him when he comes into close games.

After doling out saves using a closer by very large committee strategy, Gomez has emerged as the top option for Derek Shelton with the game on the line. Since joining the Twins, Gomez has had 21 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings, with a sub 2.00 ERA. His K rate has gone up, his walk rate has gone down, and importantly, he hasn't allowed a home run. Since joining the team, he's been worth about half a win, if you worship at the church of Fangraphs.

Given his career to this point, you are welcome to question his results. He's been inconsistent. ranging from mediocre to poor, pitching in New York, LA, Chicago and with the Rays. He was also slotted as a starter when with the White Sox last year, and Fangraphs' projections still have him on the path, as a back of the rotation starter over the next few years, and improving in that role every year. I'm not sure Gomez is going to start again, but I do think he is still getting better. He's only 26.

Gomez's velocity is up this season, and even since joining the Twins. That probably plays a role in his success. Additionally, he has made tangible changes to his pitch mix. As is often the case with pitchers joining the Twins, Gomez is throwing more sliders, up about 10%, and is abandoning his cut fastball. It's probably worth noting that his best year to day, his second with the Yankees, saw a similar pitch usage. 

Am I saying that Gomez is a future star? No, probably not. But I do think there is something there, and the Twins have found a way to tap into it. The constant stir of bullpen arms has started calcify into some sort of order. Gomez, Anthony Banda and Andrew Morris have developed into somewhat reliable arms out there. 

Now, about the rest of the bullpen.

A much calmer deadline

 The trade rumors surrounding a couple of Ryans (Joe and Jeffers) are swirling as the trade deadline approaches, now less than two months away. Of course, less in the conversation is that despite coming out of a 5 game losing streak, the Twins won their first two games back at home and are only a couple of games out in the Wild Card chase. Persistent negativity locally and nationally have signaled that nobody thinks this will last. Whatever the case, it seems as though the trade deadline will, at the very least, be confusing. 

With that in mind, if the deadline were tomorrow, I can see the Twins being in a mix and match mode, where they aren't buying, nor are they selling. With Jeremy Zoll now in charge, and a different Pohlad pretending to care now, they aren't going to give away players with the playoffs so nearly in reach. What a terrible message! But what does playing the middle look like for these Twins?

The best thing to do would be to make "baseball" moves. That sounds incredibly oversimplified, but I can't think of a better term. All season, the weakest part of the team has been their bullpen. Bullpens don't generally cost that much to patch up, unless you are dealing elite arms like Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax or Louis Varland. The Twins don't necessarily need an elite arm.

Which is great, because if their goal is to trade from the middle, they aren't going to be offering elite players, either. Ryan Jeffers is in a contract year, and the Twins intentionally brought Victor Caratini in for two years, with Eduardo Tait waiting in the wings. Other positions are a bit muddier, but the goal will be to open up spots for the top of the system to step in and win some games.

The top prospects now are all offensive players, and aside from starting pitching, the Twins have received momentum from their offense. It's not one player, though, but rather a group of players who often don't have a position or really much of a track record. Tristan Gray and Ryan Kreidler are almost certainly peaking right now, and it is hard to cast that aside, though neither would get much on the market either. Orlando Arcia has had a top pedigree in the past, and may generate some return. 

The top prospects right now are outfield prospects. Trevor Larnach is beginning to look like a potential upgrade for a different contender, but Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez are hurt, so making an outfield move with a goal of bringing one of those prospects up is on hold. More likely is bringing up Kyler Fedko now after finally putting James Outman to pasture. But that isn't a trade.

Josh Bell and Kody Clemens are interesting cases, however. Both now have a track record, though Bell isn't hitting like the Twins would hope. Clemens is proving to be a version of Willi Castro. Moving Clemens might lead to the Twins finding space for Royce Lewis (who is not a prospect anymore) to collect at bats at first and DH, given how well he has hit at St. Paul, and the fact that Brooks Lee has taken over at third.

Regardless of what happens through July 31st, I don't think Ryan or Jeffers are going to be with the team next year for financial reasons. Maximum value may come through a deal this summer, especially if the expected backslide comes. Otherwise I think we can feel good about a quieter deadline. There is plenty of organizational talent, and contention isn't far off, so another purge is unnecessary.

In another world, with the team only a few games from a playoff spot and an obvious bullpen sized hole, this would be a team looking to add players. As we saw last year, players get dealt from 'pens all the time. I am an advocate of never throwing away an opportunity if it is there, and right now, there is opportunity. 

But this isn't a great team, and these aren't good owners. Look for the Twins to do as little as is reasonably possible this deadline.