Inevitable collapse

 Growing up a Twins fan, the rest of what would become the AL Central have always been rivals. Two teams have always stood out, Cleveland and the Chicago White Sox. The Tigers came over from the East when the divisions broke into three, but weren't good for a while when that happened. The Royals were never any good, and didn't incur a wrath in me. 

Cleveland was regularly the team at the top of the division, and seemed like the most direct competition for the Twins for the first decade or so, but then, when I happened to be living in northwest Indiana, surrounded by a bunch of Sox fans, Chicago won the World Series. Insufferable.

With that background in mind, I would like to think that this post doesn't stem from jealousy, but it sure might. What I want to know is why collapse is assumed for the Twins, but not the White Sox? Make no mistake, each team has the record they have deserved. The White Sox have been a better team than the Twins this year. The Twins, though, aren't where they are at because of some good fortune.

I'm not talking about the perception of the Twins or White Sox, I am talking about their actual position. The White Sox, if the season ended today, would be the AL Central champions, and the Twins are only a couple of games out of the final Wild Card spot, and 4.5 games behind Chicago. 

Despite there being only a 4.5 game difference in the standings, the narrative around the teams is markedly different. There was a recent piece on The Athletic or ESPN that reevaluated preseason predictions. Now, a quarter of the writers thought the White Sox were a playoff team. Nobody thought the Twins were going to be a playoff team. This was written around Memorial Day, I recall, because at the time, the Twins were in playoff position. 

The Sox are a young team, younger than the Twins. Minnesota had a playoff team in 2023, before ownership decided not to invest in the team. More importantly, the young talent in the organization failed to launch, and the starting pitching couldn't sustain the same level of success and health over the next two seasons. Collapses resulted. Are Twins collapses just assumed now?

The greatest bugaboo in those two seasons was a reliance on young players that couldn't come through. Edouard Julien is in Colorado, Matt Wallner is in St. Paul. Brooks Lee is hitting. Austin Martin gives good at bats. Royce Lewis tinkered and came back stronger. Kody Clemens is now in year two of what seems like a peak. Luke Keaschall is settling in after a slow start. The Twins are also more willing to lean on veterans on hot streaks, like Ryan Kreidler and Tristan Gray. They have a new manager whispering different things to the players. 

Like I said, the White Sox have been better this year, but they also don't have many players with a sustained track record of success either. Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery and of course Muneteka Murukami are in their break out seasons. Why are they assumed to be less likely to fall off in the second half?

The Twins have a better rotation than the White Sox, even with injuries. The White Sox have a better closer with Seranthony Dominguez, and Grant Taylor has been a developmental success, but the rest of their bullpen is just as cobbled together as the Twins'. All in, I would prefer the Twins' arms to those of the White Sox. 

To my eye, there isn't a significant talent gap between the Twins and White Sox, and I think a big reason why the Sox better than expected start is embraced while the Twins' is not is because of the perception I mentioned earlier. The White Sox have spent recent years in the baseball wilderness. Any success is going to be embraced. The Twins problems seem self inflicted, torching good will after finally winning in the playoffs and completely botching an ownership transition this year.

Importantly, they didn't spend much, but they did spend on players that are connecting, in Murakami and Dominguez. The Twins spent a little, but Victor Caratini and Josh Bell haven't been as sensational. The White Sox are trending up. Somehow, the Pohlad family is so unlikable that Jerry Reinsdorf looks great in comparison. 

The Twins are in an offensive funk

 

Did you know that the Twins have the second lowest batting average in all of baseball? Yikes! There is justifiable criticism of the way Carlos Correa has started the season. It's not the way you want to impress upon a team after signing a team record contract. His average has been sight, and he's never been an on base machine, nor a pure slugger, so his overall value has been limited. 

You might be tempted to look at Joey Gallo as a problem as well, but Gallo has always seen his average founder around .200. He's always paired it with a decent enough walk rate, and an outrageous power production. Even with an average below .200, his SLG is well over .500. That's the Joey Gallo you expect, and the one the Twins were counting on. Pair that with his slick glove at first, there are likely no complaints.

One thing that the two free agent signees have in common, however, is a thing that has been plaguing the entire Twins team. Not only have the Twins had the second lowest batting average, they've also had the second lowest batting average on balls in play. Gallo's is down about 40 points to no ill effect, but Correa's is down 130 points compared to last year. 

Correa's average feeds lustily upon his line drive rate. He's getting under balls a little bit, which accounts for some of the drop in average, Bad luck accounts for the rest. His walk and strike out rate aren't far off from normal. It should just be a minor adjustment to get Correa back on track, and his batted balls finding the gaps and running to the corners. 

The Twins have some growing to do, and some minor adjustments across the board. By my eye, this run of shoddy offense isn't going to last. And by shoddy offense, I mean specifically their low batting average. They are closer to the middle of the pack in runs scored and wOBA, a measure of tru offensive output. 

Furthermore, even if batting average was the total summation of a team's offensive prowess, the Twins, even in this godawful funk to start the season, are still in first place. 

Sophomore slumps

Despite a rough patch against Boston, Washington, the Twins remain a couple of games above .500. The problem, for once, hasn't been the pitching. There were a few rough bullpen outings, but the flaw they exposed was a fairly ineffective offense. Games were easily blown because the Twins are only scoring a couple of runs a game.

The finale of the Nationals series, and a series win against the Yankees may, and hopefully will render this column moot, but the sticking point for the Twins has been some notably foul offensive performances from players getting their second full run with the Twins. The worst offender has been Nick Gordon, who succeeded when leaned upon heavily last season. This season, he's been pushed out of the daily lineup because he has been so ineffective. This is technically Gordon's third season on the Major League roster, but I'll count this as a follow up to his breakout. It works!

Someone truly in their second year, and someone heavily relied upon to be an anchor at the middle of the lineup is Jose Miranda. Miranda concluded the series with the Yankees well, going 2-3 with 2 home runs in the loss. Unfortunately, those were Miranda's first home runs of the season. He had 4 hits to conclude the series with the Nationals, but before that series started, his OPS was .511. Event with a good stretch concluding with a 2 home run game, his OPS is finally above .600. Not great for a corner infielder.

The most prominent player in his second season with the Twins is Carlos Correa. His season is doubly problematic, because of the expectations tied to his team record contract. Correa started slowly last season as well, only to finish very strong, so this is an episode we have seen before. This year, Correa's OPS is lower than Miranda's, with an average right at the Mendoza line. Correa, at least, has the pedigree to lend some faith that he will bounce back. 

Correia will continue to get chances. He has a 6 year deal that explains why. It seems like Miranda will continue to play his way through his funk as well, The Twins made a move that said that, for at least a year or two, third base is definitely his. Cincinnati Reds third baseman Spencer Steer was part of the package sent for Tyler Mahle at the deadline last year. He would be in Minnesota, were it not for Miranda. If Miranda can't iron things out, however, he has only until Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis push him off the roster.

The most tenuous spot on the roster belongs to Nick Gordon. He hasn't been able to crack the lineup in order to work his way through his current issues. He is presently not getting into the lineup to break out of his slump, and might only last as long as Kyle Farmer's IL stint. After his breakout last year, he likely has a future in the league, even if he has a short leash with the Twins.

Predictions for the new year('s first month)

Last year proved to me that anything can happen. The Twins came out strong when they were healthy, then they got hurt all over the roster, saw their pitching coach depart, and losses mounted late in the season. After a huge offseason, which I loved, the team got off to a strong start, then imploded, and now there is a sizeable contingent of fans and bloggers that think the front office should lose their job.

So I don't have any idea what will happen for the Twins this season, but independent of the actual game on the field, I feel as though I am starting to get a feel for the front office. January and February are when they like to get moving, and I have three specific predictions for things that the Twins will due before the season gets going.

1) The Twins trade Max Kepler to the Marlins, for infielder Joey Wendle, Reliver Dylan Floro and wild card prospect Antony Peguero.  The Twins are known to have a surplus of left handed outfield bats, and the Marlins are looking to move pitching for offensive help. Kepler wouldn't net one of the top starters in the Marlins rotation, but this would patch a few holes in the roster. Wendle is a Swiss army knife, and would specifically add a right handed compliment in the corner outfield of anywhere in the infield. Floro, a veteran, is currently projected to serve as the closer for the Marlins, but would effectively work middle and late innings in the Twins bullpen. Peguero is very young, and could go anywhere, but currently rates as Miami's 21st rated prospect.

2) The Twins trade Emilio Pagan to the Cubs for minor league prospect Denis Correa. The Twins get Correa after all! This move comes after the Twins add two players to the 40 man roster, above, and move to DFA Pagan. The Cubs sweep in and nab him, the next team to try and fix Pagan.

3) The Twins will still have a bunch of Financial Flexibility. The free agent market has been picked over, so instead, they will look to extend players (Luis Arraez makes some sense, but maybe even Joe Ryan), so the Twins are capable of taking on payroll.  In a killer "win now" move, the Twins trade Randy Dobnak to the Red Sox for Chris Sale and Nick Yorke. The Twins will need to add something to get the trade to happen, which results in Dobnak's inclusion. The Red Sox would kick in cash to cover any compensation that Sale would demand to waive his no trade protections, but this is otherwise a prospect by for the Twins. Yorke is a middle infield prospect who is regarded for his bat. Not due to the majors for a few years, he would be a logical choice to supplant Jorge Polanco in a few years. In the mean time, if Sale is healthy, he is the true ace that so many fans have wanted for so long. 

After all that, the Twins would have a low floor, high upside rotation featuring Sale, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Joe Ryan, with Baily Ober for immediate depth. The would include Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Floro, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran and Trevor Megill.

The lineup would feature Christian Vasquez at catcher, an enticing person for Sale, in order to get him to wave a NTC, Luis Arraez at 1b, Polanco at 2b, Kyle Farmer and Joey Wendle at SS, Jose Miranda at 3b, and an outfield of Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton and Trevor Larnach, with Alex Kirilloff DH'ing. The bench, in this scenario, features Wendle, Nick Gordon, Ryan Jeffers and Kyle Garlick.

The Twins will make a couple of telegraphed moves, but should have at least one big swing left in them as well. It's probably going to end up exactly like this, but if its different, expect a few bits of roster shuffling, and at least one big swing. Let's hope it doesn't miss.

The drain always circles back to injuries

 

Injuries have been a constant part of the Twins overall narrative for the last several years. The Twins are in constant need to resupply their pitching staff. They have added pitchers, good pitchers that have been successful, but it seems the better they are, the more likely they are to have an injury very shortly thereafter. 

Kenta Maeda seemed like a diamond in the rough, and then missed the entirety of last season after requiring Tommy John surgery midway through 2021. Chris Paddack was a force this year until he tore his UCL in May. Randy Dobnak has had 2 lost seasons now, while Tyler Mahle essentially imploded from the outset.

And it's not just the major leagues that are fraught with injury. Think of the casualties that would have been in the majors now were it not for injury. Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, and Blayne Enlow have all had issues n their rise to the majors. 

It's not an issue with just the pitchers, either. We saw Nick Gordon play with Billy Hamilton in the Twins outfield, because Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Kyle Garlick were all on the shelf at various points. Any asssessment of the Twins past and present needs to take the overall poor health of the team into consideration. 

So of course, why wouldn't health be a factor, both apparent and behind the scenes, in the biggest offseason story for the Twins and Major League Baseball. Carlos Correa has had a deal scuttled and a deal potetially on the rocks thanks to a failed medical with the Giants and the Mets. the Twins have continued to sniff around at their former shortstop, frustrating fans everywhere in Twins Territory. 

The Twins were in a spot last season where a short term contract with Correa seemed like a good bridge to Royce Lewis or Austin Martin, both of who seemed ready to arrive on the big stage in Minneapolis. Martin flamed out, but Lewis broke into the league and looked every part of the top prospect that was promised. The Astros moved on from Correa to open a spot for Jeremy Pena, and the Twins looked like they would be able to move on with an even better prospect.

And then Royce Lewis tore his ACL, and the calculus all changed. Suddenly, Lewis isn't a sure thing at shortstop anymore. How will his lower body respond to the rigors of short? Without a long term solution at the position, the Twins were suddenly more desiring of a long term free agent at short, and why not Correa, who had left a good impression on the team in his short time here.

But the Twins never intended, originally, for Correa to be the anchor at the position for the franchise. As always, injuries have steered the Twins towards a new goal, and Twins fans to a new disappointment

Bullpens aren't easy

 Let me just say, that I understand and agree: the results of the Twins' methodology for bullpen construction are unacceptable. That said, I have no issue with the actual methodology. 

Saturday night, after Joe Smith had an extremely rough outing in relief, and a local Twins blogger lamented that Smith was the "only player the Twins added in the bullpen" which is not true, and even if it was, Smith brought some very good outings to start his Twins career. For the record, Minnesota also added, to varying levels of success, Emilio Pagan, Trevor Megill, Jharel Cotton and Jhon Romero, and likely would have used Chris Archer there as well, were it not for injuries that ravaged the team's pitching staff.

Now obviously, that isn't really a who's who of elite pitching talent, but frankly, that's the way teams successfully build bullpens. Look at the Twins of 2019, the last full season of good Twins baseball. The three busiest relievers were grown in house - Taylor Rogers, Trevor May and Tyler Duffey, but the next two were a waiver claim in Ryne Harper, and their one major league free agent signing, Blake Parker.

The person complaining about Smith being the only player acquired was obviously lamenting the fact that the Twins didn't make any additional free agent signings. Never mind that they have an extremely rugged history with relief acquisitions. Alex Colome had his worst season in baseball with the Twins last year. There was Hansel Robles, Tyler Clippard, Parker, Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, Zach Duke and Matt Belisle before them. There was some success there. It wasn't universal.

In fact, that's a pretty bad bullpen. Colome and Reed were probably the most high profile signings out of that group, but Clippard and Duke may have been the most successful. And lest you think that there is something wrong with how the Twins have signed free agent relievers, I tell you the free agency market for bullpen arms is fraught with uncertainty.

MLB Trade Rumors had 6 relief pitchers among their top 50 free agents this year. I presume that these are the relievers people wish the Twins had signed this year. While if you swapped any of them out for Joe Smith, it would be an improvement, but more likely, you would have swapped them with Griffin Jax at the beginning of the year, and it is less of a benefit. 

The important point, though, is how difficult it is to figure out who will and will not be successful. Of those pitchers, Kenley Jansen is the one having the best season in terms of WAR, though with a 3.53 ERA, demonstrating the mercurial statistics of relief pitchers. Next? Hector Neris. Is that who you expected? Corey Knebel and Ryan Tepera have been worth 0 WAR. 

A lot of people have pointed to the trade of Taylor Rogers tis offseason as well. Given that his results this season are better than they have been since 2019, it's hard for me to say that the Twins made a misstep in trading him, especially since Chris Paddack has been worth .9 WAR in his 22 innings of work. That's more than any of the free agent relievers, outside of Jansen, in the entire first half of the season, and Paddack will be a Twin for two more seasons. 

Again, this is a league where results matter, and the Twins 'pen hasn't been providing them. I am hard pressed to agree that the Twins didn't make enough moves to try to sort it out. They did plenty, but things haven't broken their way, and performance from many players has been subpar. Complain about the assessment of the bullpen arms before the season, and the depth, but the action was there.

And because bullpen arms are so perennially suspect, bullpen arms are the most likely pieces to be moved at the deadline, and the easiest to acquire. This is a front office that has remained active in their 5 years in charge, and it would be foolish to assume that they won't be this trade season as well.