Let me just say, that I understand and agree: the results of the Twins' methodology for bullpen construction are unacceptable. That said, I have no issue with the actual methodology.
Saturday night, after Joe Smith had an extremely rough outing in relief, and a local Twins blogger lamented that Smith was the "only player the Twins added in the bullpen" which is not true, and even if it was, Smith brought some very good outings to start his Twins career. For the record, Minnesota also added, to varying levels of success, Emilio Pagan, Trevor Megill, Jharel Cotton and Jhon Romero, and likely would have used Chris Archer there as well, were it not for injuries that ravaged the team's pitching staff.
Now obviously, that isn't really a who's who of elite pitching talent, but frankly, that's the way teams successfully build bullpens. Look at the Twins of 2019, the last full season of good Twins baseball. The three busiest relievers were grown in house - Taylor Rogers, Trevor May and Tyler Duffey, but the next two were a waiver claim in Ryne Harper, and their one major league free agent signing, Blake Parker.
The person complaining about Smith being the only player acquired was obviously lamenting the fact that the Twins didn't make any additional free agent signings. Never mind that they have an extremely rugged history with relief acquisitions. Alex Colome had his worst season in baseball with the Twins last year. There was Hansel Robles, Tyler Clippard, Parker, Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, Zach Duke and Matt Belisle before them. There was some success there. It wasn't universal.
In fact, that's a pretty bad bullpen. Colome and Reed were probably the most high profile signings out of that group, but Clippard and Duke may have been the most successful. And lest you think that there is something wrong with how the Twins have signed free agent relievers, I tell you the free agency market for bullpen arms is fraught with uncertainty.
MLB Trade Rumors had 6 relief pitchers among their top 50 free agents this year. I presume that these are the relievers people wish the Twins had signed this year. While if you swapped any of them out for Joe Smith, it would be an improvement, but more likely, you would have swapped them with Griffin Jax at the beginning of the year, and it is less of a benefit.
The important point, though, is how difficult it is to figure out who will and will not be successful. Of those pitchers, Kenley Jansen is the one having the best season in terms of WAR, though with a 3.53 ERA, demonstrating the mercurial statistics of relief pitchers. Next? Hector Neris. Is that who you expected? Corey Knebel and Ryan Tepera have been worth 0 WAR.
A lot of people have pointed to the trade of Taylor Rogers tis offseason as well. Given that his results this season are better than they have been since 2019, it's hard for me to say that the Twins made a misstep in trading him, especially since Chris Paddack has been worth .9 WAR in his 22 innings of work. That's more than any of the free agent relievers, outside of Jansen, in the entire first half of the season, and Paddack will be a Twin for two more seasons.
Again, this is a league where results matter, and the Twins 'pen hasn't been providing them. I am hard pressed to agree that the Twins didn't make enough moves to try to sort it out. They did plenty, but things haven't broken their way, and performance from many players has been subpar. Complain about the assessment of the bullpen arms before the season, and the depth, but the action was there.
And because bullpen arms are so perennially suspect, bullpen arms are the most likely pieces to be moved at the deadline, and the easiest to acquire. This is a front office that has remained active in their 5 years in charge, and it would be foolish to assume that they won't be this trade season as well.
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