Predictions for the new year('s first month)

Last year proved to me that anything can happen. The Twins came out strong when they were healthy, then they got hurt all over the roster, saw their pitching coach depart, and losses mounted late in the season. After a huge offseason, which I loved, the team got off to a strong start, then imploded, and now there is a sizeable contingent of fans and bloggers that think the front office should lose their job.

So I don't have any idea what will happen for the Twins this season, but independent of the actual game on the field, I feel as though I am starting to get a feel for the front office. January and February are when they like to get moving, and I have three specific predictions for things that the Twins will due before the season gets going.

1) The Twins trade Max Kepler to the Marlins, for infielder Joey Wendle, Reliver Dylan Floro and wild card prospect Antony Peguero.  The Twins are known to have a surplus of left handed outfield bats, and the Marlins are looking to move pitching for offensive help. Kepler wouldn't net one of the top starters in the Marlins rotation, but this would patch a few holes in the roster. Wendle is a Swiss army knife, and would specifically add a right handed compliment in the corner outfield of anywhere in the infield. Floro, a veteran, is currently projected to serve as the closer for the Marlins, but would effectively work middle and late innings in the Twins bullpen. Peguero is very young, and could go anywhere, but currently rates as Miami's 21st rated prospect.

2) The Twins trade Emilio Pagan to the Cubs for minor league prospect Denis Correa. The Twins get Correa after all! This move comes after the Twins add two players to the 40 man roster, above, and move to DFA Pagan. The Cubs sweep in and nab him, the next team to try and fix Pagan.

3) The Twins will still have a bunch of Financial Flexibility. The free agent market has been picked over, so instead, they will look to extend players (Luis Arraez makes some sense, but maybe even Joe Ryan), so the Twins are capable of taking on payroll.  In a killer "win now" move, the Twins trade Randy Dobnak to the Red Sox for Chris Sale and Nick Yorke. The Twins will need to add something to get the trade to happen, which results in Dobnak's inclusion. The Red Sox would kick in cash to cover any compensation that Sale would demand to waive his no trade protections, but this is otherwise a prospect by for the Twins. Yorke is a middle infield prospect who is regarded for his bat. Not due to the majors for a few years, he would be a logical choice to supplant Jorge Polanco in a few years. In the mean time, if Sale is healthy, he is the true ace that so many fans have wanted for so long. 

After all that, the Twins would have a low floor, high upside rotation featuring Sale, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Joe Ryan, with Baily Ober for immediate depth. The would include Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Floro, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran and Trevor Megill.

The lineup would feature Christian Vasquez at catcher, an enticing person for Sale, in order to get him to wave a NTC, Luis Arraez at 1b, Polanco at 2b, Kyle Farmer and Joey Wendle at SS, Jose Miranda at 3b, and an outfield of Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton and Trevor Larnach, with Alex Kirilloff DH'ing. The bench, in this scenario, features Wendle, Nick Gordon, Ryan Jeffers and Kyle Garlick.

The Twins will make a couple of telegraphed moves, but should have at least one big swing left in them as well. It's probably going to end up exactly like this, but if its different, expect a few bits of roster shuffling, and at least one big swing. Let's hope it doesn't miss.

Enough about the pitching, the offense is junk too

 It's no secret that the Twins were a completely different team in the beginning of the season as they are now. Practically literally. Between trades and injuries, there has been some tumult in the roster. Consider that Chris Paddack and Bailey Ober are 6th and 7th on the team in pitching WAR, and they haven't pitched since their 5th and 7th starts, respectively. 

I've long noted that the Twins have sustained a ton of injuries that impacted how they wanted to use their pitching staff. Ultimately, they attempted to straighten thing out by using a more traditional method. They added an innings eating starter, a strong middle reliever and a flame throwing closer, which should, at least, mollify the villagers with pitchforks for the moment.

What has been particularly excruciating to me is just how incompetent the offense has seemed of late. For much of August and early September, the Twins have found points to be at a premium. They started the second half unable to score runs after about the third inning, and now, they seem only to score after the 7th inning, leaving long tracts of the game to be scoreless. We've talked about the pitching, and the Twins have tried to address it. But what happened to the offense?

First, who were the drivers of the success of the first half? By WAR, the top 9 are Max Kepler, Luis Arraez, Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Gary Sanchez, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis and Gio Urshela. Larnach, Buxton and Lewis have missed extended tracts of time since that date. That's 1/3 of the players the team relied upon early, on top of contributors like Alex Kirilloff or Ryan Jeffers, who stepped up later, and are also on the shelf.

Since the beginning of June, we've seen the rise of Jose Miranda and Nick Gordon, but also the collapse of Max Kepler and to a lesser extent, Luis Arraez. Carlos Correa has really stepped up his productivity in the last two weeks, and is the primary driver of the offense right now, but 5 important members of the offense are missing.

Kepler has been walking less since the beginning of the year, and his hitting for significantly less power, seeing his early season ISO drop from .180 to .86, nearly a full .100 points. His BABIP has also dropped significantly as his inability to hit around the shift has become more apparent. 

Arraez is still doing ok, but his last two months have seen sub .300 batting averages, as perhaps the pressure of the batting title hunt are getting to him. Support behind him in the lineup being lost to injury or ineffectiveness surely don't help. He's also walking a lot less, perhaps trying to go for those base hits, and his BABIP is plunneting as he isn't making the same kind of contact, though he has found a power stroke.

That's 5 players, the three injured and two whose production has lessened significantly, who are affecting the offensive output. It's tough to deal with injuries, but Kepler and Arraez can offer some tips for the rest of a lineup mired in a slump at the worst time of year. Both are walking less as they press harder. Calm down, and let opposing pitchers make mistakes. Try to relax and don't press. 

The pressure is on as the Twins slip further out of first place, and the funk the offense is in looks more and more like a lethal flaw to their postseson hopes. 

Maybe it's time for a soft reset

 One thing that this season has illustrated is that the Twins have the major and minor league depth to remain competitive even with injuries and disease running rampant through the organization. Another important thing that a lot of people have touched upon is the value of good vibes. Replacing Josh Donaldson with Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez and replacing his money with Carlos Correa's money have led to a more harmonious clubhouse. Winning helps, sure, but don't doubt the value of getting along.

With both of those factors in mind, it might behoove the team for the rest of this season and the next to purge the roster of players that just don't fit. There is likely a capable replacement already in the organization, or, given the glut of top level talent in the minors, an available replacement on the trade market. 

Three long time Twins, in particular, could see their way off the roster either this season or next. Tyler Duffey has been with the organization about as long as any pitcher in the organization, but this season, it seems as though he has run out of gas. It seems at this point that he is still with the team as a courtesy after his long and eventful Twins career. It's unfortunate to say, but at this juncture it seems that almost any pitcher on the roster could surpass Duffey for reliability. When that happens, it's probably time for the organization to move on.

Miguel Sano has been derided for nearly his entire career. He's been the perfect blend of high strike out rate and uncomfortable off field issues. The Twins ignored the allegations and the strike out rate for his tantalizing power prospects. Now, he's having one of his patented bad starts (though peripheral data suggests he might be more honed in than normal) but won't have an opportunity to recover because of a torn meniscus.

The Twins have already replaced Sano's on field presence, somehow, with Luis Arraez. Byron Buxton has turned into the power hitter that the team wanted Sano to be, and if the roster clicks like it is designed to, Sano is superfluous. Finally, the team will make everyone find a new pariah, and move on from the big first baseman when they decline his option this winter.

The last player is one who is actually doing pretty well, and doesn't get as much scorn. Max Kepler has had some awkward missteps that seem out of line with the rest of the roster, and from this 1000 foot view, hasn't seemed to gel with the new rostermates as well as some of his fellow holdovers. After all the tension and blowback surrounding Andrelton Simmons' decision to remain unvaccinated last season, it is strange that Kepler left the team when they went to Toronto, and really remained silent about it while Caleb Thielbar and Emilio Pagan were open about their decision. He's also been, at best, tone deaf around the turmoil in Minneapolis, even though his typical outfield spot is right next to an aspiring community leader in Byron Buxton. 

It's not to say that these are reasons in and of themselves for Kepler to be on the block, but rather that there are signs that the clubhouse could be a bit more harmonious without him in it. This wouldn't even be a talking point if the Twins weren't also seeing the rapid emergence of Trevor Larnach and Gilberto Celestino, with Alex Kirilloff ready to emerge from St. Paul as well. Kepler hasn't made enough waves on the field to push clubhouse fit out of the conversation. 

Kepler actually has another year under a reasonable contract, meaning that he could be a tantalizing trade chip to a team that may soon want to return to contention, or a team looking to upgrade for a playoff push this year. There would be options if the team decided to recalibrate. It's not time to overhaul this team, not when they are in first place, but the Twins seem poised to fully embrace the next wave. 

Old friends

 The Twins did a lot this offseason. They overhauled the pitching rotation, added the biggest free agent on the market and swung a blockbuster trade with the Yankees to fill two spots on the roster. Then, naturally, Minnesota fell on their face coming out of the gate. 

Subsequently, they went on a 6 game winning streak that is still ongoing. They swept the White Sox and are on the precipice of a sweep of the Tigers as well. The revamped pitching staff is performing above expectations, and the offense has started humming as well. 

I've already mentioned Byron Buxton's explosive start. Losing him to injury early on was surely a primary issue with the way the season started. Other players are waking from their slumber as well, with Max Kepler, Ryan Jeffers and even a timely hit from Miguel Sano leading the way. 

In the last 4 games, Kepler has collected 7 hits, including three home runs, and boosted his overall WAR to .8 after hovering around 0 before the series with the White Sox. I had noted previously that Kepler was one of the players that was hitting the ball hard consistently, and had an xwOBA that didn't match his production. Kepler has always been unable to overcome shifts played against him, but he is now hitting the ball far enough that it hasn't mattered. 

Sano might be coming around as well. He still strikes out a lot, but his numbers are at the lowest rate of his career, while his walk rate is at the highest. He is a victim of a very low BABIP, and he has a xwOBA that is higher than any season, except his two best, in 2019 and 2017. He launched a rocket off of Robbie Grossman's glove to start the laugher that won the game for Minnesota, but he made solid contact in other at bats as well. His approach is leading to better peripherals, and those will inevitably lead to better results. He has a second off day in a row today, but that has more to do with finding a spot for Luis Arraez. 

Ryan Jeffers has seen a lot more action since Gary Sanchez suffered a knock last week. He has come through during the winning streak, getting 4 of his 9 hits in just the last three games. He also drove in 4 and hit a homer in that stretch. Jeffers is also the better defensive option, so keeping him in the lineup is a preferred option for the Twins. 

All of these guys were on the roster last year. A lot is made of free agency, and the Twins' typical reluctance to spend big during the offseason, but this hot stretch should reemphasize the importance of player development, and having a good core to build around. Carlos Correa and Gio Urshela will hit, certainly, but this team will really only be successful if the holdovers hold their own.