Thursday, April 28, 2022

Old friends



 The Twins did a lot this offseason. They overhauled the pitching rotation, added the biggest free agent on the market and swung a blockbuster trade with the Yankees to fill two spots on the roster. Then, naturally, Minnesota fell on their face coming out of the gate. 

Subsequently, they went on a 6 game winning streak that is still ongoing. They swept the White Sox and are on the precipice of a sweep of the Tigers as well. The revamped pitching staff is performing above expectations, and the offense has started humming as well. 

I've already mentioned Byron Buxton's explosive start. Losing him to injury early on was surely a primary issue with the way the season started. Other players are waking from their slumber as well, with Max Kepler, Ryan Jeffers and even a timely hit from Miguel Sano leading the way. 

In the last 4 games, Kepler has collected 7 hits, including three home runs, and boosted his overall WAR to .8 after hovering around 0 before the series with the White Sox. I had noted previously that Kepler was one of the players that was hitting the ball hard consistently, and had an xwOBA that didn't match his production. Kepler has always been unable to overcome shifts played against him, but he is now hitting the ball far enough that it hasn't mattered. 

Sano might be coming around as well. He still strikes out a lot, but his numbers are at the lowest rate of his career, while his walk rate is at the highest. He is a victim of a very low BABIP, and he has a xwOBA that is higher than any season, except his two best, in 2019 and 2017. He launched a rocket off of Robbie Grossman's glove to start the laugher that won the game for Minnesota, but he made solid contact in other at bats as well. His approach is leading to better peripherals, and those will inevitably lead to better results. He has a second off day in a row today, but that has more to do with finding a spot for Luis Arraez. 

Ryan Jeffers has seen a lot more action since Gary Sanchez suffered a knock last week. He has come through during the winning streak, getting 4 of his 9 hits in just the last three games. He also drove in 4 and hit a homer in that stretch. Jeffers is also the better defensive option, so keeping him in the lineup is a preferred option for the Twins. 

All of these guys were on the roster last year. A lot is made of free agency, and the Twins' typical reluctance to spend big during the offseason, but this hot stretch should reemphasize the importance of player development, and having a good core to build around. Carlos Correa and Gio Urshela will hit, certainly, but this team will really only be successful if the holdovers hold their own. 

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