I've been high on Chris Paddack for a while, and thought that the Twins and Padres could match up on a deal. I've thought that for years. This morning, that came to fruition, not at all in a way I expected. The Twins will acquire Paddack, reliever Emilio Pagan and a PTBNL for Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker and cash in a pre-opener deal.
As with a couple of deals the Twins made this year, a lot of fans are focused on what the team gave up. It may not seem like it, because we recognize the name, but ultimately, it may be "not much". Taylor Rogers is coming off a hand injury, and he hasn't worked since that nick. How will he bounce back? That question is open ended, in his last year of his contract, which he was unlikely to renew with the Twins. If Rogers stumbles out of the gate, or if he never really bounces back (and closers are mercurial like that), then the Twins may have given up a few months of a mediocre pitcher for two guys that are more likely to contribute this season.
Both players the Twins acquired were brilliant in 2019, but have struggled in the last two seasons. Who among us hasn't. Pagan was a lights out reliever for the Rays, but has subsequently bounced from team to team before landing with the Padres last season. He will be a fairly reliable arm out of the bullpen, and has a good slider which certainly makes Wes Johnson salivate. The Twins aren't likely to lean on one pitcher to close, which means getting a somewhat trustworthy pitcher is a welcome return.
Of course, I'm publishing this post the night after the Twins had their first blown save. It's important not to lean on one result and project it over the course of the season, especially when the Twins have only scored 4 runs in two games. If anything, my take away is that the starting pitching (and the middle relief) has been strong enough to keep the team in games, even as the offense has scuffled so far.
Paddack is no ordinary starter, either. In 2019, he came onto the scene as one of the most explosive young starters in all of baseball, despite bouncing back from Tommy John surgery. He has a brilliant changeup, something Twins fans who remember Johan Santana may appreciate, as well as a mid-90s fastball. He is coming to a breaking ball guru in Wes Johnson, and surely, the Twins think they can help him develop the third pitch that will make him unhittable.
On Wednesday, when Paddack takes the mound, we will begin to see how valuable this trade is. Sure, you can lament the one rough inning from Tyler Duffey, but remember that Paddack is going to keep the Twins in games, 5,6,7 innings at a time, potentially for a few years, all while he is getting even better. Good rotations make good closers, and the Twins made an aggressive move to improve their group of starters.
If you watched the introductions on the season opener, it sure looked like Paddack was happy to be here. In time, we will all be happy he (and maybe even Emilio Pagan) are here, too.
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