The Twins really like Chris Paddack

 So much of this offseason has been about money, and specifically, how much the Twins aren't spending, and how much, even more specifically, they aren't spending on free agent pitchers. Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle all left, but three lower cost, younger players off of the 2023 rotation are still suiting up in 2024: Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.

The other name expected to take a big role in the Twins rotation next year is Chris Paddack, who the Twins acquired in the Taylor Rogers trade of a couple years ago. While Emilio Pagan had a couple of years in the Twins' bullpen, it was Paddack who attracted the Twins to the deal in the first place. After nearly two full seasons out with Tommy John surgery, Paddack is ready to go in 2024.

In two seasons as a member of the Twins, Paddack has been worth 1 win above replacement, despite only having only 27 innings of work. Paddack hasn't been dissimilar to the pitcher he was in San Diego, either, and while there would will always be concern about his health, Paddack's biggest issue affecting his numbers with Minnesota has been a high batting average on balls in play. His raw numbers, the ERA, should settle in lower than what it's been if his elbow has properly healed. 

Even while Paddack was on the shelf, the Twins signed him to an extension in anticipation of this season. There has been a lot of consternation about the Twins' lack of an addition to the rotation, and a lot of it was blamed on payroll. Part of it should be blamed on the expectations for Paddack to be a vital part of the rotation. It has been in the works for two years, and even i the fans aren't yet fully on board, the front office believes that Paddack is at least the Maeda replacement, if not the Sonny Gray replacement.

With Lopez and the increasing veteran stature of Ryan and Ober already in the front of the rotation, there is no pressure on Paddack to fulfill that role at the top of the rotation either, at least not externally. At the very least, the Twins already have Paddack penciled in as a very good 4th starter, but I have to believe the expect so much more. 

Opener Delayed.... more time for deals!

 

I've been high on Chris Paddack for a while, and thought that the Twins and Padres could match up on a deal. I've thought that for years. This morning, that came to fruition, not at all in a way I expected. The Twins will acquire Paddack, reliever Emilio Pagan and a PTBNL for Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker and cash in a pre-opener deal.

As with a couple of deals the Twins made this year, a lot of fans are focused on what the team gave up. It may not seem like it, because we recognize the name, but ultimately, it may be "not much". Taylor Rogers is coming off a hand injury, and he hasn't worked since that nick. How will he bounce back? That question is open ended, in his last year of his contract, which he was unlikely to renew with the Twins. If Rogers stumbles out of the gate, or if he never really bounces back (and closers are mercurial like that), then the Twins may have given up a few months of a mediocre pitcher for two guys that are more likely to contribute this season. 

Both players the Twins acquired were brilliant in 2019, but have struggled in the last two seasons. Who among us hasn't. Pagan was a lights out reliever for the Rays, but has subsequently bounced from team to team before landing with the Padres last season. He will be a fairly reliable arm out of the bullpen, and has a good slider which certainly makes Wes Johnson salivate. The Twins aren't likely to lean on one pitcher to close, which means getting a somewhat trustworthy pitcher is a welcome return.

Of course, I'm publishing this post the night after the Twins had their first blown save. It's important not to lean on one result and project it over the course of the season, especially when the Twins have only scored 4 runs in two games. If anything, my take away is that the starting pitching (and the middle relief) has been strong enough to keep the team in games, even as the offense has scuffled so far.

Paddack is no ordinary starter, either. In 2019, he came onto the scene as one of the most explosive young starters in all of baseball, despite bouncing back from Tommy John surgery. He has a brilliant changeup, something Twins fans who remember Johan Santana may appreciate, as well as a mid-90s fastball. He is coming to a breaking ball guru in Wes Johnson, and surely, the Twins think they can help him develop the third pitch that will make him unhittable. 

On Wednesday, when Paddack takes the mound, we will begin to see how valuable this trade is. Sure, you can lament the one rough inning from Tyler Duffey, but remember that Paddack is going to keep the Twins in games, 5,6,7 innings at a time, potentially for a few years, all while he is getting even better. Good rotations make good closers, and the Twins made an aggressive move to improve their group of starters. 

If you watched the introductions on the season opener, it sure looked like Paddack was happy to be here. In time, we will all be happy he (and maybe even Emilio Pagan) are here, too.