Dallas Keuchel showed us why Pablo Lopez was such a great acquisition

The conversation has died down a little bit on whether or not the Arraez/Lopez trade was worthwhile for the Twins, but the recent series with the Phillies was another piece of information in favor of Minnesota. I'm not even talking about Lopez's great outing in the season. I'm talking about Dallas Keuchel's clunker.

A lot has been made of Luis Arraez's brilliant season with the Marlins. Earlier in the year, he was very seriously flirting with .400. Now, it is around .367, thanks in part to a .260 average so far in August. Meanwhile, Pablo Lopez has almost singlehandedly kept the Twins on the right track. When the Twins were doing poorly, Lopez has come through with a dominant outing.

But this isn't a 1-1 comparison, even though, for the moment, Lopez is in a better stretch than Arraez. It's about what their absence would have meant. Bot the Twins and Marlins were able to reasonably patch over the absence of the player that they traded away. The Marlins have a deep well of starting pitchers and prospects. The Twins plugged Edouard Julien in at 2nd, and he seems like a contender for rookie of the year. Certainly, Julien is the most consistent player the Twins have had in the offense for a while.

The Marlins, even after adding Arraez, were aggressive at the deadline, adding, among others, Josh Bell and Jake Burger because they needed a serious jolt of offense. Even with Arraez, it wasn't enough for the Marlins to put together a capable offense. Would another left handed bat, no matter how much he got on base, really have made the Twins offense look more competent this season?

Now, if you subtracted Lopez from the rotation, you likely would have had more Dallas Keuchel for sooner. He was good in St. Paul, but has been a poor Major League pitcher for some time now. I fear his season opener against Philadelphia was more telling than his first. If the Twins don't have Lopez this season, then they would have more Keuchel starts. Or Louie Varland, or Simeon Woods-Richardson. Perhaps Cole Sands or Josh Winder get starts. The step back from Lopez to his replacement would be worse than Arraez to Julien. 

The Twins traded away a popular, very good player, but are better because of it. Just because the Twins won the trade doesn't mean the Marlins had to lose it either. 

Twins trade Luis Arraez to Miami, and nobody is happy about it

 

A few days ago, rumors started floating around about a Pablo Lopez trade for the Twins. There were rumors that the Marlins ask was for Luis Arraez, and there was an immediate outcry. The rumors indicated it would be a bigger trade than just those two, and the expectation was that Arraez would lead a package heading to Miami for Lopez. Baseball trade values has come in vogue of late, and Lopez was more "valuable" than Arraez, by there metric.

So then today, when it came out that instead of Arraez being part of a package for Lopez, Lopez was part of a package for Arraez? I'll just come out and say it, the Twins made a heck of a deal, and it would be tough to dissuade me otherwise. And I love Luis Arraez. There are a lot of Twins fans out there that would strongly disagree with me.

Luis Arraez won the batting title, yes. He's a very likeable guy with an infectious personality, yes. But that's about the extent of his value above a replacement player. He doesn't hit for power, doesn't play the field particularly well, and isn't fast. He is a one, albeit exceptional, tool player. That exceptional tool raised his perception, but the reality is that his season WAR slotted just below that of Cedric Mullins. 

So Arraez was a very popular Twin, and I get that. That's why the organization held out and absolutely fleeced the Marlins. Lopez alone would have been a reasonable trade for Arraez, using the Baseball Trade Values metric, and perhaps even an overpay from Miami's standpoint. And then, the Marlins threw in two prospects! Jose Salas is a 19 year old that is likely to move over to third base at some point, and offers the potential for a decent bat and power. Byron Chourio is a 17 year old lottery ticket, but you can never have too many Byrons.

Lopez has been a steady, solid presence in the Marlins rotation for a few years, and should be counted on to provide at least #3 starter quality, and is young enough that improvement seems strongly probable. There is nothing creative about the rotation this year. The front office isn't going to try to go with guys to get through the lineup twice and move to the bullpen, or stack pitchers (say, two pitchers going 4 innings), they are just going to run 5 pretty good starters, regularly. Bailey Ober moves to the long relief role, where he is overqualified, and Alex Kirilloff can be comfortable in a regular position as first baseman.

Max Kepler is more likely to open the season with the Twins, with Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo forming one of the best defensive outfields in the league, keeping things warm for Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. The middle infield now has Carlos Correa (holy crap! they reupped with Correa!) for at least 6 years, but Jorge Polanco is expected to explore free agency, allowing 2nd to fall to Royce Lewis, Austin Martin or now Salas, perhaps, in a few years. The rotation, full of question marks next year, now can lean on Lopez, Ober, Joe Ryan and Chris Paddack (holy crap! They reupped with Paddack!) 

I will miss watching Arraez in a Twins uniform, and I will enjoy watching the Marlins whenever I see them, particularly because of Arraez. But this was a slam dunk for Minnesota. 

Luis Arraez is going to win the batting title

After tonight, there is really nothing to play for, except the completion of the season. The Twins are locked in third place behind the White Sox, but importantly, Luis Arraez has the AL batting title all but locked up.

With a .315 average compared to Aaron Judge's .311, and Judge likely to get tomorrow off after hitting his 62nd homer of the season after an arduous pursuit of Roger Maris's AL record, Arraez would need to go 0-7 tomorrow to dip to .311. That would require the Twins to have a crazy offense, outside of Arraez, which hasn't happened since May, and I don't expect will happen tomorrow, or that the game goes deep into extra innings, but I'm guessing we will see a court order to end the season before we see extra innings.

So at least one Twin will win something, and even more surprisingly, will do so by beating a Yankee for it. It's been a very tough season for the Twins, the fans, and people like me who follow too many Twins fans and writers on Twitter. Let's enjoy this shining moment before we have to endure what will probably be a stressful offseason.

Way to go, Luis! 

Enough about the pitching, the offense is junk too

 It's no secret that the Twins were a completely different team in the beginning of the season as they are now. Practically literally. Between trades and injuries, there has been some tumult in the roster. Consider that Chris Paddack and Bailey Ober are 6th and 7th on the team in pitching WAR, and they haven't pitched since their 5th and 7th starts, respectively. 

I've long noted that the Twins have sustained a ton of injuries that impacted how they wanted to use their pitching staff. Ultimately, they attempted to straighten thing out by using a more traditional method. They added an innings eating starter, a strong middle reliever and a flame throwing closer, which should, at least, mollify the villagers with pitchforks for the moment.

What has been particularly excruciating to me is just how incompetent the offense has seemed of late. For much of August and early September, the Twins have found points to be at a premium. They started the second half unable to score runs after about the third inning, and now, they seem only to score after the 7th inning, leaving long tracts of the game to be scoreless. We've talked about the pitching, and the Twins have tried to address it. But what happened to the offense?

First, who were the drivers of the success of the first half? By WAR, the top 9 are Max Kepler, Luis Arraez, Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Gary Sanchez, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis and Gio Urshela. Larnach, Buxton and Lewis have missed extended tracts of time since that date. That's 1/3 of the players the team relied upon early, on top of contributors like Alex Kirilloff or Ryan Jeffers, who stepped up later, and are also on the shelf.

Since the beginning of June, we've seen the rise of Jose Miranda and Nick Gordon, but also the collapse of Max Kepler and to a lesser extent, Luis Arraez. Carlos Correa has really stepped up his productivity in the last two weeks, and is the primary driver of the offense right now, but 5 important members of the offense are missing.

Kepler has been walking less since the beginning of the year, and his hitting for significantly less power, seeing his early season ISO drop from .180 to .86, nearly a full .100 points. His BABIP has also dropped significantly as his inability to hit around the shift has become more apparent. 

Arraez is still doing ok, but his last two months have seen sub .300 batting averages, as perhaps the pressure of the batting title hunt are getting to him. Support behind him in the lineup being lost to injury or ineffectiveness surely don't help. He's also walking a lot less, perhaps trying to go for those base hits, and his BABIP is plunneting as he isn't making the same kind of contact, though he has found a power stroke.

That's 5 players, the three injured and two whose production has lessened significantly, who are affecting the offensive output. It's tough to deal with injuries, but Kepler and Arraez can offer some tips for the rest of a lineup mired in a slump at the worst time of year. Both are walking less as they press harder. Calm down, and let opposing pitchers make mistakes. Try to relax and don't press. 

The pressure is on as the Twins slip further out of first place, and the funk the offense is in looks more and more like a lethal flaw to their postseson hopes. 

Luis Arraez is here to stay

 Imagine hearing, after all the machinations of the offseason, extending Byron Buxton, adding Carlos Correa, revamping the pitching staff and promoting the top organizational prospect, that the All Star Game push by the Minnesota Twins would be for Luis Arraez to get voted into the Mid Summer classic. 

Arraez was the subject of speculation since his debut three years ago. Obviously, Arraez had a little bit more skill than had been expected when he first arrived at Target Field, but the Twins already had a second baseman in Jorge Polanco, especially if they could add a legitimate short stop. And besides, how much sustained success could this 5'10 bundle of energy have?

The pandemic years weren't as kind to Arraez. He was still good, but not the special player he is today. His average was .294, and mostly empty. Arraez doesn't hit for power, and his average wasn't one that necessitated inclusion in the lineup. As a result, his name cropped up this season in trade rumors as a potential piece to be included in a package for a starter.

Now, in mid-June, Arraez leads the league in batting average and on base percentage, reaffirming the promise he had in 2019. He still doesn't hit for a lot of power, but he is on base all the time, either with a walk or a hit. He's taken over at first in the absence of Miguel Sano and Alex Kirilloff, and his glove is hidden there much better than in the corner outfield. The Twins are working to put him at the top of the lineup when they can, and it is paying off.

And don't forget that Arraez is now one of the more long tenured members of the team, even though he is only 25. His comfort in the Majors and in the clubhouse is allowing some of his quirky side to come out. He's gaining popularity with fans who are getting to know him, and seems to already be a hit in the clubhouse.

The Twins ultimately balked on using Arraez in a trade, and the benefit is a likely All Star and a potential batting champion. Sometimes, it pays to hold on to what you have.