The Marlins Magic

Twins fans spent the first half of the season looking closely at the Miami Marlins, wondering what might have been. Obviously, this was because the Twins and Marlins made a major trade over the offseason. Luis Arraez came out at the beginning of the year to a ton of attention, while Pablo Lopez's results weren't yet matching his metrics. It didn't help that the Twins were inconsistent, and the Marlins seemed to do no wrong.

Now that the Twins are getting more proficient on offense, people around here haven't really focused on the Marlins or the trade for a while. Arraez also hasn't been as otherworldly as he was to start the season. He's still been the best player for the Marlins by a pretty wide margin, especially on the offensive side of the ball. 

Arraez is the top player by WAR for the Marlins this year, and the next 5 players on the list are in the starting rotation. One might suspect that this is because the rotation is very good, which it is, but also, the Marlins offense is very bad. The Twins offense has been moribund this season, but still, there are SEVEN position players for the Twins that would be better than the 2nd best Marlins position player this season, including Jorge Polanco and Edouard Julien, the replacements for Arraez at 2nd this year. 

If the Twins had attained the results they expected from their two highest end position players, I think we would more clearly recognize Minnesota for the well rounded team they are. There is plenty of offensive talent on the Twins roster, and last season, the Twins learned the value of pitching depth. It's easy for me, because of the logic fand because of how often we reflected on this move earlier in the year, to see the logic and the benefit of the move for the Twins.

What I don't think enough people understand, though, is how utterly lost the Marlins would be without Arraez. The Twins added another weapon to a rotation that needed health to really thrive. The addition of Arraez gave Miami a decent player. The third highest WAR among Marlins position players is utility guy John Berti. The Marlins, thanks to their rotation and Arraez, are still somehow in the playoff hunt.

The Marlins are clearly able to develop pitchers -- they had one to spare in Lopez, and still are riding their arms this season. Their offensive ineptitude makes me think it was lucky they grabbed Arraez in this trade rather than any sort of real prescience. 

A simple look under the hood for the Marlins should show the team that they need to work on their offense this offseason. With a weak free agent class this off season, maybe they can try to work a little magic on the trade market. It worked once.

Twins trade Luis Arraez to Miami, and nobody is happy about it

 

A few days ago, rumors started floating around about a Pablo Lopez trade for the Twins. There were rumors that the Marlins ask was for Luis Arraez, and there was an immediate outcry. The rumors indicated it would be a bigger trade than just those two, and the expectation was that Arraez would lead a package heading to Miami for Lopez. Baseball trade values has come in vogue of late, and Lopez was more "valuable" than Arraez, by there metric.

So then today, when it came out that instead of Arraez being part of a package for Lopez, Lopez was part of a package for Arraez? I'll just come out and say it, the Twins made a heck of a deal, and it would be tough to dissuade me otherwise. And I love Luis Arraez. There are a lot of Twins fans out there that would strongly disagree with me.

Luis Arraez won the batting title, yes. He's a very likeable guy with an infectious personality, yes. But that's about the extent of his value above a replacement player. He doesn't hit for power, doesn't play the field particularly well, and isn't fast. He is a one, albeit exceptional, tool player. That exceptional tool raised his perception, but the reality is that his season WAR slotted just below that of Cedric Mullins. 

So Arraez was a very popular Twin, and I get that. That's why the organization held out and absolutely fleeced the Marlins. Lopez alone would have been a reasonable trade for Arraez, using the Baseball Trade Values metric, and perhaps even an overpay from Miami's standpoint. And then, the Marlins threw in two prospects! Jose Salas is a 19 year old that is likely to move over to third base at some point, and offers the potential for a decent bat and power. Byron Chourio is a 17 year old lottery ticket, but you can never have too many Byrons.

Lopez has been a steady, solid presence in the Marlins rotation for a few years, and should be counted on to provide at least #3 starter quality, and is young enough that improvement seems strongly probable. There is nothing creative about the rotation this year. The front office isn't going to try to go with guys to get through the lineup twice and move to the bullpen, or stack pitchers (say, two pitchers going 4 innings), they are just going to run 5 pretty good starters, regularly. Bailey Ober moves to the long relief role, where he is overqualified, and Alex Kirilloff can be comfortable in a regular position as first baseman.

Max Kepler is more likely to open the season with the Twins, with Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo forming one of the best defensive outfields in the league, keeping things warm for Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. The middle infield now has Carlos Correa (holy crap! they reupped with Correa!) for at least 6 years, but Jorge Polanco is expected to explore free agency, allowing 2nd to fall to Royce Lewis, Austin Martin or now Salas, perhaps, in a few years. The rotation, full of question marks next year, now can lean on Lopez, Ober, Joe Ryan and Chris Paddack (holy crap! They reupped with Paddack!) 

I will miss watching Arraez in a Twins uniform, and I will enjoy watching the Marlins whenever I see them, particularly because of Arraez. But this was a slam dunk for Minnesota.