Dallas Keuchel showed us why Pablo Lopez was such a great acquisition

The conversation has died down a little bit on whether or not the Arraez/Lopez trade was worthwhile for the Twins, but the recent series with the Phillies was another piece of information in favor of Minnesota. I'm not even talking about Lopez's great outing in the season. I'm talking about Dallas Keuchel's clunker.

A lot has been made of Luis Arraez's brilliant season with the Marlins. Earlier in the year, he was very seriously flirting with .400. Now, it is around .367, thanks in part to a .260 average so far in August. Meanwhile, Pablo Lopez has almost singlehandedly kept the Twins on the right track. When the Twins were doing poorly, Lopez has come through with a dominant outing.

But this isn't a 1-1 comparison, even though, for the moment, Lopez is in a better stretch than Arraez. It's about what their absence would have meant. Bot the Twins and Marlins were able to reasonably patch over the absence of the player that they traded away. The Marlins have a deep well of starting pitchers and prospects. The Twins plugged Edouard Julien in at 2nd, and he seems like a contender for rookie of the year. Certainly, Julien is the most consistent player the Twins have had in the offense for a while.

The Marlins, even after adding Arraez, were aggressive at the deadline, adding, among others, Josh Bell and Jake Burger because they needed a serious jolt of offense. Even with Arraez, it wasn't enough for the Marlins to put together a capable offense. Would another left handed bat, no matter how much he got on base, really have made the Twins offense look more competent this season?

Now, if you subtracted Lopez from the rotation, you likely would have had more Dallas Keuchel for sooner. He was good in St. Paul, but has been a poor Major League pitcher for some time now. I fear his season opener against Philadelphia was more telling than his first. If the Twins don't have Lopez this season, then they would have more Keuchel starts. Or Louie Varland, or Simeon Woods-Richardson. Perhaps Cole Sands or Josh Winder get starts. The step back from Lopez to his replacement would be worse than Arraez to Julien. 

The Twins traded away a popular, very good player, but are better because of it. Just because the Twins won the trade doesn't mean the Marlins had to lose it either. 

Twins trade Luis Arraez to Miami, and nobody is happy about it

 

A few days ago, rumors started floating around about a Pablo Lopez trade for the Twins. There were rumors that the Marlins ask was for Luis Arraez, and there was an immediate outcry. The rumors indicated it would be a bigger trade than just those two, and the expectation was that Arraez would lead a package heading to Miami for Lopez. Baseball trade values has come in vogue of late, and Lopez was more "valuable" than Arraez, by there metric.

So then today, when it came out that instead of Arraez being part of a package for Lopez, Lopez was part of a package for Arraez? I'll just come out and say it, the Twins made a heck of a deal, and it would be tough to dissuade me otherwise. And I love Luis Arraez. There are a lot of Twins fans out there that would strongly disagree with me.

Luis Arraez won the batting title, yes. He's a very likeable guy with an infectious personality, yes. But that's about the extent of his value above a replacement player. He doesn't hit for power, doesn't play the field particularly well, and isn't fast. He is a one, albeit exceptional, tool player. That exceptional tool raised his perception, but the reality is that his season WAR slotted just below that of Cedric Mullins. 

So Arraez was a very popular Twin, and I get that. That's why the organization held out and absolutely fleeced the Marlins. Lopez alone would have been a reasonable trade for Arraez, using the Baseball Trade Values metric, and perhaps even an overpay from Miami's standpoint. And then, the Marlins threw in two prospects! Jose Salas is a 19 year old that is likely to move over to third base at some point, and offers the potential for a decent bat and power. Byron Chourio is a 17 year old lottery ticket, but you can never have too many Byrons.

Lopez has been a steady, solid presence in the Marlins rotation for a few years, and should be counted on to provide at least #3 starter quality, and is young enough that improvement seems strongly probable. There is nothing creative about the rotation this year. The front office isn't going to try to go with guys to get through the lineup twice and move to the bullpen, or stack pitchers (say, two pitchers going 4 innings), they are just going to run 5 pretty good starters, regularly. Bailey Ober moves to the long relief role, where he is overqualified, and Alex Kirilloff can be comfortable in a regular position as first baseman.

Max Kepler is more likely to open the season with the Twins, with Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo forming one of the best defensive outfields in the league, keeping things warm for Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. The middle infield now has Carlos Correa (holy crap! they reupped with Correa!) for at least 6 years, but Jorge Polanco is expected to explore free agency, allowing 2nd to fall to Royce Lewis, Austin Martin or now Salas, perhaps, in a few years. The rotation, full of question marks next year, now can lean on Lopez, Ober, Joe Ryan and Chris Paddack (holy crap! They reupped with Paddack!) 

I will miss watching Arraez in a Twins uniform, and I will enjoy watching the Marlins whenever I see them, particularly because of Arraez. But this was a slam dunk for Minnesota.