Sunday, January 1, 2023

Predictions for the new year('s first month)



Last year proved to me that anything can happen. The Twins came out strong when they were healthy, then they got hurt all over the roster, saw their pitching coach depart, and losses mounted late in the season. After a huge offseason, which I loved, the team got off to a strong start, then imploded, and now there is a sizeable contingent of fans and bloggers that think the front office should lose their job.
So I don't have any idea what will happen for the Twins this season, but independent of the actual game on the field, I feel as though I am starting to get a feel for the front office. January and February are when they like to get moving, and I have three specific predictions for things that the Twins will due before the season gets going.

1) The Twins trade Max Kepler to the Marlins, for infielder Joey Wendle, Reliver Dylan Floro and wild card prospect Antony Peguero.  The Twins are known to have a surplus of left handed outfield bats, and the Marlins are looking to move pitching for offensive help. Kepler wouldn't net one of the top starters in the Marlins rotation, but this would patch a few holes in the roster. Wendle is a Swiss army knife, and would specifically add a right handed compliment in the corner outfield of anywhere in the infield. Floro, a veteran, is currently projected to serve as the closer for the Marlins, but would effectively work middle and late innings in the Twins bullpen. Peguero is very young, and could go anywhere, but currently rates as Miami's 21st rated prospect.

2) The Twins trade Emilio Pagan to the Cubs for minor league prospect Denis Correa. The Twins get Correa after all! This move comes after the Twins add two players to the 40 man roster, above, and move to DFA Pagan. The Cubs sweep in and nab him, the next team to try and fix Pagan.

3) The Twins will still have a bunch of Financial Flexibility. The free agent market has been picked over, so instead, they will look to extend players (Luis Arraez makes some sense, but maybe even Joe Ryan), so the Twins are capable of taking on payroll.  In a killer "win now" move, the Twins trade Randy Dobnak to the Red Sox for Chris Sale and Nick Yorke. The Twins will need to add something to get the trade to happen, which results in Dobnak's inclusion. The Red Sox would kick in cash to cover any compensation that Sale would demand to waive his no trade protections, but this is otherwise a prospect by for the Twins. Yorke is a middle infield prospect who is regarded for his bat. Not due to the majors for a few years, he would be a logical choice to supplant Jorge Polanco in a few years. In the mean time, if Sale is healthy, he is the true ace that so many fans have wanted for so long. 

After all that, the Twins would have a low floor, high upside rotation featuring Sale, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Joe Ryan, with Baily Ober for immediate depth. The would include Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Floro, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran and Trevor Megill.

The lineup would feature Christian Vasquez at catcher, an enticing person for Sale, in order to get him to wave a NTC, Luis Arraez at 1b, Polanco at 2b, Kyle Farmer and Joey Wendle at SS, Jose Miranda at 3b, and an outfield of Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton and Trevor Larnach, with Alex Kirilloff DH'ing. The bench, in this scenario, features Wendle, Nick Gordon, Ryan Jeffers and Kyle Garlick.

The Twins will make a couple of telegraphed moves, but should have at least one big swing left in them as well. It's probably going to end up exactly like this, but if its different, expect a few bits of roster shuffling, and at least one big swing. Let's hope it doesn't miss.

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