I've got a little more skin in the game for this spring's NFL draft than I have in a while. The Colts were, as we all know, a walking disaster for the better part of the season, notably after Frank Reich was terminated because Jim Irsay was in a mood. They cratered the rest of the season, suffering embarrassing losses, like the biggest comeback in NFL history against the Vikings and losing the finally to the Houston Texans, which got them out of the top spot in the draft.
Ah, back to the draft.
One thing that is reassuring about the Colts, is that since 1998, they haven't missed on a top 10 draft pick. Peyton Manning and Edgerrin James are in the Hall of Fame. Andrew Luck was pretty good before his decision to retire. Quenton Nelson is one of the best offensive linemen to playing now, and perhaps is on his way to a Hall of Fame career as well. This spring, the Colts will have the 4th pick, and frankly, I'm not worried about them screwing it up.
The Colts need a quarterback, and there are three top options, and among those three, there is a definite top two, Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's CJ Stroud. The Bears have the first pick, and a quarterback in Justin Fields that is likely good enough to continue building around. The 2nd pick is Houston's, and they will draft a quarterback, almost certainly. The Cardinals are the third pick, and Kyler Murray is under contract for a lot of money years. Arizona is not picking a quarterback.
Both the Bears and Cardinals are going to look to trade out of their picks, particularly if Indianapolis stays at 4. With that in mind, I think the Colts will be compelled to move up to number 1, taking the Bears pick. The Colts will have the equity to trade, and the Bears will appreciate the opportunity to build out a young roster around Fields.
What is important here is that Indianapolis will have their choice of quarterback, selecting between Young and Stroud. The consensus seems to be gravitating towards Young, but by traditional evaluations, I don't fully comprehend why that would be the case.
Alabama quarterbacks haven't translated their success to the NFL level since Joe Namath, though Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones are trying to turn the opinion around (and of course Jalen Hurts, but he transferred to Oklahoma before he came into the League). Physically, teams have preferred bigger players to play quarterback, and Stroud is 5 inches taller than Young, who will be the shortest NFL starter when he gets drafted, tied with Murray (who missed the last part of the season to injury) at 5'10.
Stroud has a bigger arm, though both are just as accurate, according to Chris Trapasso's evaluation of the two. Young gets marks for his mobility, though it is labeled as less than Murray's. In the NCAA Semi final, Stroud proved he had plenty of athletic ability, so the gulf is likely not as great as has been described. Also, with Stroud's size, it stands to reason that he will be more durable through his career.
If my intuition is close to accurate, than CJ Stroud is the correct pick for the Colts. That said, the Colts have a long enough track record of draft success that I'm not panicked about whatever direction they choose to take.
Now, the coaching hire? I'm scared.
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