Daniel Jones and his fortress

This sure has been a down stretch at the Rhino and Compass. The Twins are bad, and posts have been non stop about how bad the Twins are. So let's talk about the Colts, who have been one of the hits of the 2025 NFL season, and Daniel Jones is having his career resurgence in Indianapolis rather than with Kevin O'Connell. How the heck did that happen?

In this area, I have no choice but to agree with Saquan Barkley. Last summer, he told Diana Rossini "You give him an offensive line, and I’m telling you, he’s a top quarterback. ... He has it.” A good offensive line can give a young quarterback more time to develop and figure it out, and allows a mediocre quarterback to be good, and a good one to be great. When the Rams went on their run with Kurt Warner, it was after drafting Orlando Pace first overall, not a QB or a weapon.

The Vikings are a perfect example of this. They've given special attention to their offensive line, and as a result, have been able to develop Kirk Cousins into something better than he otherwise would have been, and managed with Sam Darnold after that. The Colts have bounced from quarterback to quarterback in the last several years as well, with varying success. They weren't ever really bad but never particularly good, either. Philip Rivers was still effective, but Matt Ryan was over the hill.

They used draft picks to develop an offensive line that is now one of the better ones in the league, supporting Daniel Jones as he turns himself into an Indianapolis legend. And that line, the incredible part of all of it is that two long term starters left the team this offseason (to go to Minnesota of all places) which means that there is an argument that it could have been even better last year, and certainly two years prior when Gardner Minshew went to the Pro Bowl. That Anthony Richardson struggled so mightily with a line that is protecting Jones' renaissance is probably a factor in their being zero trade interest in the former #4 overall pick.

In retrospect, drafting Richardson was a colossal misstep. At the position the Colts were, it made sense to draft a QB, however Richardson wasn't ready for the NFL, and certainly wasn't ready to be a high first rounder. Given the choice, I think Indy would have rather taken Deon Witherspoon, the corner the Steelers grabbed a pick later. They still would have scuffled to an about .500 record, and would have needed a QB again now. 

I could see Richardson having a career like Geno Smith, where he takes a back seat for several years and reemerges somewhere in 7 years, taking all that time to learn the position, all while keeping his body healthy. Richardson famously didn't start playing football until late in his high school career, and bviously needed time to develop his understanding of the game, even if he had raw physical ability.

And I think Richardson knew this too. He's not arrogant, and has taken this benching in stride, as a learning opportunity. That's such a rare quality in today's world, and the sign of a future leader. 

A future leader. It's Daniel Jones' time now. 

A quarterback of the future

 I've got a little more skin in the game for this spring's NFL draft than I have in a while. The Colts were, as we all know, a walking disaster for the better part of the season, notably after Frank Reich was terminated because Jim Irsay was in a mood. They cratered the rest of the season, suffering embarrassing losses, like the biggest comeback in NFL history against the Vikings and losing the finally to the Houston Texans, which got them out of the top spot in the draft.

Ah, back to the draft.

One thing that is reassuring about the Colts, is that since 1998, they haven't missed on a top 10 draft pick. Peyton Manning and Edgerrin James are in the Hall of Fame. Andrew Luck was pretty good before his decision to retire. Quenton Nelson is one of the best offensive linemen to playing now, and perhaps is on his way to a Hall of Fame career as well. This spring, the Colts will have the 4th pick, and frankly, I'm not worried about them screwing it up.

The Colts need a quarterback, and there are three top options, and among those three, there is a definite top two, Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's CJ Stroud. The Bears have the first pick, and a quarterback in Justin Fields that is likely good enough to continue building around. The 2nd pick is Houston's, and they will draft a quarterback, almost certainly. The Cardinals are the third pick, and Kyler Murray is under contract for a lot of money years. Arizona is not picking a quarterback.

Both the Bears and Cardinals are going to look to trade out of their picks, particularly if Indianapolis stays at 4. With that in mind, I think the Colts will be compelled to move up to number 1, taking the Bears pick. The Colts will have the equity to trade, and the Bears will appreciate the opportunity to build out a young roster around Fields.

What is important here is that Indianapolis will have their choice of quarterback, selecting between Young and Stroud. The consensus seems to be gravitating towards Young, but by traditional evaluations, I don't fully comprehend why that would be the case. 

Alabama quarterbacks haven't translated their success to the NFL level since Joe Namath, though Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones are trying to turn the opinion around (and of course Jalen Hurts, but he transferred to Oklahoma before he came into the League). Physically, teams have preferred bigger players to play quarterback, and Stroud is 5 inches taller than Young, who will be the shortest NFL starter when he gets drafted, tied with Murray (who missed the last part of the season to injury) at 5'10.

Stroud has a bigger arm, though both are just as accurate, according to Chris Trapasso's evaluation of the two. Young gets marks for his mobility, though it is labeled as less than Murray's. In the NCAA Semi final, Stroud proved he had plenty of athletic ability, so the gulf is likely not as great as has been described. Also, with Stroud's size, it stands to reason that he will be more durable through his career. 

If my intuition is close to accurate, than CJ Stroud is the correct pick for the Colts. That said, the Colts have a long enough track record of draft success that I'm not panicked about whatever direction they choose to take.

Now, the coaching hire? I'm scared. 

The Colts without Luck

Andrew Luck decided to retire. I've talked for years about how the Colts' failure to protect him for years would eventually have negative consequences. Luck missed a whole season two years ago because of injury, and despite one of the best O-Lines in the league, he didn't feel like he could continue. I don't blame him, and I'm glad he has his whole life ahead of him, hopefully pain free.
I also don't think that this was a total surprise to the Colts. After a season where he was hit very infrequently, Andrew Luck was still in pain. After coming back to training camp, he wasn't himself at the beginning of the season. This was a team that was set for success with or without Luck, though the levels of success may have varied. Well, they are going to do it without.
The Colts have already decided, even before the season started, that they would give Jacoby Brissett a vote of confidence, signing the pending free agent to a two year extension. People were talking about the Colts tanking this season, but that is obviously not the course Indianapolis will take.
As much as the Colts losing Luck will hurt, we need to remember that the Colts were among the favorites to win the Super Bowl. It's a hell of a lot easier to win the Super Bowl with a star quarterback, but you do need more to make it happen. The Colts have the same team, less the quarterback. It's still a good team.
Now, I never thought the team was going to be good enough to really contend for the title. They have a very difficult schedule after reaching the playoffs last year. The Jaguars should be better. The Texans should be healthier and the Titans are on the way up. While the Colts are a young, improving team, so is the rest of the division. It's going to be a battle to get to the playoffs, even with their quarterback of choice.
Oh, and that offense and improved defense? They were pasted by the Chiefs in the playoffs. The Chiefs are approximately the same as they were last year, and even they couldn't handle the Patriots.
Now, like I said, the Colts are a better team than one that should even consider tanking. They have assembled perhaps the best offensive line in the league, which will allow Brissett to succeed, or at least be more successful than he was when he started 15 games in 2017. Brissett was sacked more times than any other QB in the league during the games he started. The offense will be stable so long as the O-Line stays stable.
Then, there is the defense, long a liability of the Colts. Through two years of good drafting, the Colts have also developed one of the better defenses in the league. Most of the Colts' draft capital was spent on further filling holes on defense, and Justin Houston could ultimately be the most important signing the Colts made this offseason.
It might seem like I am arguing two different points. The schedule is tough, and the Colts won't do well. Their team is pretty good, the Colts will do well. I'm using those two ideas to make one conclusion. The loss of Andrew Luck doesn't hurt on the field as much as it seems, initially, because I don't think their ceiling was as high as some people believed, but also, their floor isn't that low without him. The Colts won't win the Super Bowl, but with a good break, they might make the playoffs. That's the same prediction I would have made before Luck's retirement.

The Colts are just going to keep building through the draft

There was a lot made of the Colts' 2018 season and their position as the off season approached. They were a team on the upswing, and they were in a place of great financial flexibility, so some massive moves were expected, with holes on defense and a wide receiving corps that was very shallow, as well as a widely stated need for a running back.
The free agency glut came and went, and the Colts came away with.... Devin Funchess. Later, the Colts went out and added Justin Houston and Spencer Ware, but that was long after the premium names were already off the board.
The Colts then went to the draft, and the general consensus was that they crushed it. They traded out of the first round, and had three picks in the 2nd round, which they used to fill three pressing needs: Rock Ya-Sin, a cornerback, Ben Benogu, a linebacker and Parris Campbell, a wide receiver. This is the second year in a row that the Colts have potentially done extremely well with the draft.
That's a great thing to have in their back pocket. As they continue to develop internally, with young players breaking out, they will be able to either retain players in the long term, or in the short term, add that final component to a potential championship team.
Which, uh... I guess is what the situation was this year. To me, that signifies that they could get more out of the prospects they are adding than the entirety of the free agent pool, which is incredibly arrogant. Of course, Chris Ballard, the GM, is yet to be proven wrong in his Indianapolis tenure. We can call it confidence, since Ballard has already started to turn the team around using similar methods in previous off seasons.
The Colts could have added a bunch of free agents to round out the roster. They didn't. They could probably do it again next year. They probably won't. That doesn't seem to be how this organization wants to operate.

Colts fans should be satisfied

I made a bet at the beginning of the season. Over/Under for the Colts wins. I could set the number, and my friend would pick either over or under. I st it at 7, and he went under. When the team started 1-5, it looked particularly bleak. Then, the team rattled off 9 wins in 10 games, including a road playoff win. The mere fact that they were even in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon is pretty remarkable. The game was pretty bad, but the fact that it even happened? Fantastic. I have no complaints.
One thing that this season goes a long way towards confirming is my continued tenet that you must build a team from the inside out. After the disastrous tenure of Ryan Grigson, Chris Ballard came to town and immediately started transforming the roster. Whereas Grigson had a predilection for drafting skill players and hyped up edge rushers, Ballard saw the problem on offense was Andrew Luck's protection, and on defense, they simply didn't have the ability to compete.
To his credit, Grigson drafted Ryann Kelly, the starting center for Indianapolis, in his final season, but it was Ballard who started rebuilding the secondary, with Malik Hooker and Quincy Wilson in 2017. The team really turned it around when they acquired a slew of picks from the Jets so New York could move up, and Indianapolis drafted Quenton Nelson in the first round and used one of those other picks on Braden Smith, both of whom locked up spots on the offensive line, which was suddenly one of the best, not only this year, but perhaps in the last decade. Ballard spent the other three picks on defenders, of which one, Darius Leonard, may end up the defensive rookie of the year after leading the league in tackles.
The lessons here are this: Make sure your quarterback is upright and safe. Draft often and early. Draft well. This is a team that surpassed expectations. Expectations will be higher next year, but their schedule is more difficult. Fortunately, Ballard has 3 picks in the first two rounds again, in which to work his magic.
There is optimism in Indianapolis, despite what it looked like in Kansas City

How to manage your #1 pick, and how not to

After a 2-14 season in 2010, the Carolina Panthers stumbled into a quarterback that was considered to be a generational talent. There were some components already in Carolina, including Steve Smith, whose kick returns were the only reason the Panthers won any games. During Cam Newton's first NFL season, Peyton Manning suffered an injury, amd the rudderless Colts went on to go 2-14, and stumbled into a quarterback considered to be a generational talent.

The  Colts were only two years removed from a Super Bowl defeat at the hands of the New Orleans Saints, and a long string of Playoff appearances , so when Manning went down, there was collective surprise among the NFL. The team, apparently, thought that the solution was to add Andrew Luck and give him weapons, despite the presence of guys like Reggie Wayne on the roster.

There are two ways to make a qarterback play above his level: Give him an offensive line so he can remain upright and confident, or give him a defense, so he isn't always trying to keep up with his opponents. Skill positions can be elevated by the play of their quarterback. Look at Brandon Stokely and Austin Collie and tell me I'm wrong. 

We see how things have worked out. The Panthers, since drafting Newton, conserved draft picks and spent them, to a fault, on defenders. The Panthers had good linemen initially as Newton developed, and drafted defensive studs like Luke Kuechley and Kawann Short early in his tenure. The Panthers would ultimately make it to the Super Bowl, thanks to the well rounded roster.

The Colts watched Peyton Manning get throttled as his veteran offensive line departed and was replaced by whoever happened to be in the room. They drafted Anthony Castonzo the year before Luck arrived, but including the draft he arrived, only drafted 2 in the first three rounds since. There has been an effort to draft defenders, but that's mostly been a hapless midadventure.

While the Panthers have drafted skill players to compliment their team, or because they were bargainsm the Colts have lusted after them, as though they were the vital components to future success. The Panthers, since Newton was drafted, have selected Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess and Christian McCaffrey early in drafts. The Colts drafted three skill position players in 2012 immediately after Luck. Later, they would add Donte Moncrief, in 2014. They also traded a first round pick for Trent Richardson and spent a first round pick on receiver Philip Dorsett. It's one thing to draft a receiver if it's good value, but Dorsett was the 6th receiver selected that year, in the first round. 

While the Panthers have bounced back and reached the playoffs, all but one year since 2013. The Colts, incapable of fleshing out a team to surround Luck, have missed the playoffs three years in a row. This year, because they have focused too much on skill positions over the years, their offensive line is one of the worst in the league. Andrew Luck was forced to sit all season, and in the purest of ironies, the Colts traded Dorsett for Luck's 2017 replacement. They could have cut out that step if they'd managed the draft like the Panthers.