Tuesday, February 13, 2018

How to manage your #1 pick, and how not to




After a 2-14 season in 2010, the Carolina Panthers stumbled into a quarterback that was considered to be a generational talent. There were some components already in Carolina, including Steve Smith, whose kick returns were the only reason the Panthers won any games. During Cam Newton's first NFL season, Peyton Manning suffered an injury, amd the rudderless Colts went on to go 2-14, and stumbled into a quarterback considered to be a generational talent.
The  Colts were only two years removed from a Super Bowl defeat at the hands of the New Orleans Saints, and a long string of Playoff appearances , so when Manning went down, there was collective surprise among the NFL. The team, apparently, thought that the solution was to add Andrew Luck and give him weapons, despite the presence of guys like Reggie Wayne on the roster.
There are two ways to make a qarterback play above his level: Give him an offensive line so he can remain upright and confident, or give him a defense, so he isn't always trying to keep up with his opponents. Skill positions can be elevated by the play of their quarterback. Look at Brandon Stokely and Austin Collie and tell me I'm wrong. 
We see how things have worked out. The Panthers, since drafting Newton, conserved draft picks and spent them, to a fault, on defenders. The Panthers had good linemen initially as Newton developed, and drafted defensive studs like Luke Kuechley and Kawann Short early in his tenure. The Panthers would ultimately make it to the Super Bowl, thanks to the well rounded roster.
The Colts watched Peyton Manning get throttled as his veteran offensive line departed and was replaced by whoever happened to be in the room. They drafted Anthony Castonzo the year before Luck arrived, but including the draft he arrived, only drafted 2 in the first three rounds since. There has been an effort to draft defenders, but that's mostly been a hapless midadventure.

While the Panthers have drafted skill players to compliment their team, or because they were bargainsm the Colts have lusted after them, as though they were the vital components to future success. The Panthers, since Newton was drafted, have selected Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess and Christian McCaffrey early in drafts. The Colts drafted three skill position players in 2012 immediately after Luck. Later, they would add Donte Moncrief, in 2014. They also traded a first round pick for Trent Richardson and spent a first round pick on receiver Philip Dorsett. It's one thing to draft a receiver if it's good value, but Dorsett was the 6th receiver selected that year, in the first round. 
While the Panthers have bounced back and reached the playoffs, all but one year since 2013. The Colts, incapable of fleshing out a team to surround Luck, have missed the playoffs three years in a row. This year, because they have focused too much on skill positions over the years, their offensive line is one of the worst in the league. Andrew Luck was forced to sit all season, and in the purest of ironies, the Colts traded Dorsett for Luck's 2017 replacement. They could have cut out that step if they'd managed the draft like the Panthers. 

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