Smoothing over the rough patches

Is it possible that Willi Castro could be qualified as a Twins prospect? I think, by and large, the Twins view Trevor Larnach as a prospect in the Twins organization. He has been mercurial, and is presently beset by pneumonia, but I think, particularly because of his pedigree, many people still see Larnach's star as blossoming.

After his two home run performance on Saturday, maybe it is worth exploring whether Castro could land in the group of players the team might consider as part of their future. He is young enough, at 2 months younger than Larnach, and frankly, he does have a bit of a history. He's played in the Majors for the past three seasons, even getting a 4th place finish in the race for Rookie of the Year in 2020.

Castro has the positional versatility that the Twins seem to love, and seems to be growing in importance in the league, and is sorting things out with the bat after a couple of quieter seasons. While he is a switch hitter, he is also, more importantly, capable from the right side of the plate, which is less a redundancy for the Twins. 

His emergence are the culmination of two stories that we've covered at length here or everywhere. First is the substantial depth the Twins accrued this offseason. Second is the rapidly filling Injured List, which has necessitated that depth. Willi Castro is probably not ever going to be Trevor Larnach, but it seems that he has likely supplanted Gilberto Celestino in the Twins' plans, and perhaps even Nick Gordon, depending on what the Twins ultimately try to do going forward.

While this season's offensive output has been paltry, it still provides the air of a team that intends to be successful. They are finding areas they can improve at the edges, things that will make the team a little bit better when the post season arrives, and ways to expand their success next season. They are finding away to make the bumps in the road a little bit flatter. 

Another way the Twins are proving that there is commitment is with the latest headlines around Carlos Correa. He was recently diagnosed with plantar fasciitis, an ailment that, from personal experience, is excruciating, and takes a while to heal. The best way to get better is through rest and stretching, but on the cusp of shaking his early season doldrums and getting the team though a bit of a rougher patch, he has continued to play.

He's already signed his big contract, and he is playing through pain, because this is a team that feels can do big things, and they are putting forth the extra effort to get through the tough patches. With the emergence of players like Willi Castro, the next rough patch won't feel so rough. And with this afternoon's announce ment that Royce Lewis and Max Kepler will be returning, the hope is that this rough patch is at its end. 

The Twins are in an offensive funk

 

Did you know that the Twins have the second lowest batting average in all of baseball? Yikes! There is justifiable criticism of the way Carlos Correa has started the season. It's not the way you want to impress upon a team after signing a team record contract. His average has been sight, and he's never been an on base machine, nor a pure slugger, so his overall value has been limited. 

You might be tempted to look at Joey Gallo as a problem as well, but Gallo has always seen his average founder around .200. He's always paired it with a decent enough walk rate, and an outrageous power production. Even with an average below .200, his SLG is well over .500. That's the Joey Gallo you expect, and the one the Twins were counting on. Pair that with his slick glove at first, there are likely no complaints.

One thing that the two free agent signees have in common, however, is a thing that has been plaguing the entire Twins team. Not only have the Twins had the second lowest batting average, they've also had the second lowest batting average on balls in play. Gallo's is down about 40 points to no ill effect, but Correa's is down 130 points compared to last year. 

Correa's average feeds lustily upon his line drive rate. He's getting under balls a little bit, which accounts for some of the drop in average, Bad luck accounts for the rest. His walk and strike out rate aren't far off from normal. It should just be a minor adjustment to get Correa back on track, and his batted balls finding the gaps and running to the corners. 

The Twins have some growing to do, and some minor adjustments across the board. By my eye, this run of shoddy offense isn't going to last. And by shoddy offense, I mean specifically their low batting average. They are closer to the middle of the pack in runs scored and wOBA, a measure of tru offensive output. 

Furthermore, even if batting average was the total summation of a team's offensive prowess, the Twins, even in this godawful funk to start the season, are still in first place. 

The drain always circles back to injuries

 

Injuries have been a constant part of the Twins overall narrative for the last several years. The Twins are in constant need to resupply their pitching staff. They have added pitchers, good pitchers that have been successful, but it seems the better they are, the more likely they are to have an injury very shortly thereafter. 

Kenta Maeda seemed like a diamond in the rough, and then missed the entirety of last season after requiring Tommy John surgery midway through 2021. Chris Paddack was a force this year until he tore his UCL in May. Randy Dobnak has had 2 lost seasons now, while Tyler Mahle essentially imploded from the outset.

And it's not just the major leagues that are fraught with injury. Think of the casualties that would have been in the majors now were it not for injury. Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, and Blayne Enlow have all had issues n their rise to the majors. 

It's not an issue with just the pitchers, either. We saw Nick Gordon play with Billy Hamilton in the Twins outfield, because Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Kyle Garlick were all on the shelf at various points. Any asssessment of the Twins past and present needs to take the overall poor health of the team into consideration. 

So of course, why wouldn't health be a factor, both apparent and behind the scenes, in the biggest offseason story for the Twins and Major League Baseball. Carlos Correa has had a deal scuttled and a deal potetially on the rocks thanks to a failed medical with the Giants and the Mets. the Twins have continued to sniff around at their former shortstop, frustrating fans everywhere in Twins Territory. 

The Twins were in a spot last season where a short term contract with Correa seemed like a good bridge to Royce Lewis or Austin Martin, both of who seemed ready to arrive on the big stage in Minneapolis. Martin flamed out, but Lewis broke into the league and looked every part of the top prospect that was promised. The Astros moved on from Correa to open a spot for Jeremy Pena, and the Twins looked like they would be able to move on with an even better prospect.

And then Royce Lewis tore his ACL, and the calculus all changed. Suddenly, Lewis isn't a sure thing at shortstop anymore. How will his lower body respond to the rigors of short? Without a long term solution at the position, the Twins were suddenly more desiring of a long term free agent at short, and why not Correa, who had left a good impression on the team in his short time here.

But the Twins never intended, originally, for Correa to be the anchor at the position for the franchise. As always, injuries have steered the Twins towards a new goal, and Twins fans to a new disappointment

The offseason is maturing. Get ready.

It's been since the end of the season that I have touched on the Twins, and we have been able to see how things have settled out. We know that the Astros won the World Series, again, showing the value of a good organization, rebounding after an important player - Carlos Correa - departed, and recovering from one of the biggest baseball scandals in years. The Phillies, even in losing the Series, reiterated the value of going for it if you have an opportunity. 

Those two lessons are some that the Twins can take with them to the offseason. At the beginning of November, before attention turned to the Vikings, the attitude of "why bother" permeated the Twins fan base. There were wailings and ill feeling for the Twins. Then there was a wave of writers speculating on the Twins adding a top starter, catering to the masses who think that is the best and only way for the team to get better. Now, though, with free agency getting ready to really take off, and the itinerant fans redirecting their attention elsewhere, the tone has traded, and we can really start talking.

We had to fight through the initial call for the Twins to sign a free agent starter. Everyone and their brother called for the Twins to sign Carlos Rodon, to the point that it seemed like many fans would feel it a failure if Rodon didn't sign with the Twins. Then, the realization came that Rodon was really the only attainable top end starter on the market, and there would be a lot of competition for him. Other starters that could sign in Minnesota aren't really better than the options on hand. It seems as though the front office will be forgiven for an ill fitting free agent market.
The trade market should be robust, and I think we will see a bit of action there. Some people think trades are as bad or risky as free agency, because prospects are lost instead of money. That said, with free agency, you are likely going to have to pay for bad years at the end of a contract, and players, pitchers especially, are more prone to injury with the more they play. Trades for younger players are going to be less financially burdensome, and will lead to a higher ratio of games healthy for the season. 

Where it gets really interesting, I think, is on the position player side of things. A lot of attention is being paid to the short stop position, where Carlos Correa is a potentially departing free agent. There are 4 big named free agents ready to hit the market. After spending big at the position last year, there is a real possibility the Twins will do so again. 

The Twins also need another solid right handed bat to go along with Jose Miranda and Byron Buxton. There are many available on the market, and all available at any rate one might expect. There are so many options on the table, nobody really knows where they might go. Twins Daily alone has pieces speculating on Mitch Haniger, Joey Gallo and Tommy Pham as fits. There are a lot of different directions the Twins can go.

And there is also a lot less risk. They can make the moves in free agency for a position player that the early offseason fan base wanted the team to make for pitching. The money is significantly less likely to be thrown away if the signing is a hitter. The Twins have also shown a willingness to shell out for position players. The ability and the willingness to add a good bat is going to be an interesting thing to watch, especially since we don't know who or how that bat will be, or where they come from.

The offseason din has become a bit more realistic. Let's see, when people start paying attention to the Twins again closer to the spring, In the mean time, get ready for a busy, often unexpected winter. 

They've done it before, Do it again!

 Optimism is hard, especially for a fanbase that has been hard pressed to find good results for over 30 years. The narrative around the team over the last month, foisted upon us especially by a local radio show, is that the front office and management have lead this team to ruin. I'm not here to argue about that, as I've done that quite a bit.

I'm here to point to one thing that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have done well, over and over again. They sign guys that we never believed they would. They signed Josh Donaldson, they signed Carlos Correa, and they knocked the Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco extensions pretty well out of the park. The Twins front office isn't afraid of making big moves.

And because of the moves they have made, and the contracts they have, they aren't underwater on anything, and have significantly less on the books for less year than they do this year. In the past, the Twins have attempted first to sign pitchers that might help put the team over the hump, but were unable to make those splashes. Looking at this years free agent crop, there aren't many high end pitchers that I could imagine the Twins vying for.

My analysis of the last few offseasons is that the Twins have wanted to sign pitchers, but when the big names decided they didn't want to come to Minnesota, they threw money at high value bats like Donalson and Correa. I don't know what would have changed. There are few Aces on the market, and the Twins have a lot of cash on hand. Since their shot at landing a top pitcher are limited, or has been unsuccessful before, why not make that flashy splash earlier in the offseason?

What I am saying is, I think the Twins have a more realistic shot at extending Carlos Correa than many people speculate. Royce Lewis may be the short stop of the future, but that future might be a little bleak, given two ACL surgeries. Still, Lewis is in the top 100 on the prospect lists. Without a clear future after Correa is hypothetically resigned, Lewis could be a huge asset for a huge trade for a younger starting pitcher.

But I'm getting ahead of myself. The point is, the Twins have the means, and have shown in the past the will to make big moves. Re-signing Correa is not at all out of the realm of possibility, and I would say makes a lot of sense. 

A shortstop for the long term

Royce Lewis was right there. He seemed like he had turned on the talent this year after two years away and a slower start than he hoped before that, and then it all came crashing down, literally, when he crashed into the center field fence in his first day back from St. Paul. It took a while, but eventually he was assessed to need ACL surgery, again, and would miss a year of action, again.

Lewis was trying to become more versatile in his time in St. Paul, but ultimately, it looked like the Twins were going to be in good shape for a long time at short stop. Carlos Correa is there this year, but is not expected to stick around for the long term, but it was ok, Royce Lewis was coming.

Maybe Lewis will recover, but I've seen this play out before. One knee injury is one thing, but having to have an ACL pieced back together twice is another. One of Lewis's elite skills was his speed, and now it is fair to wonder if he will still have that after his second surgery. That will affect his range at short, and hamper his baserunning for sure.

The Twins obtained high level prospect Austin Martin at last years deadline, and his pedigree and performance within the Blue Jays organization led some to believe that he would arrive in the Majors soon. The Twins, with Lewis already in the fold also signed Correa this offseason, leading me to believe that the Twins viewed Martin as a trade chip. His slow start, at the very least, tells us that he certainly isn't ready to be the team's short stop next season.

A nice thing about the Twins' situation is that they have removed almost all future financial obligations. They also have a stable of young talent that indicates that the team will be flush with good players for a few years. It seems to me that there is an obvious solution to their predicament all the way around. Try to lock up Carlos Correa long term.

The team is in a better place this offseason when it comes to the pitching rotation, and has historically been reluctant to overextend their payroll to pitchers anyways. Aside from shortstop, the biggest question mark the teams have on the roster is at catcher, and there aren't many commanding names that would take up payroll there, either. From a position of financial capability, extending Correa seems feasible.

For the long term future, both Lewis and Martin were being groomed for greater positional flexibility. Either could bounce around the field if it becomes more important to get their bat in the lineup, similar to the position that Luis Arraez finds himself in presently. Alternatively, this could return Martin, at least, to the "trade chip" position he had previously found himself in, as the Twins might want to supplement their rotation now or in the future. The Twins are spoiled for options if Correa is in the fold. 

I would suggest an offer of 8 years for $280m, securing the next two years at the 37.5 rate that Correa is currently making, and $34.17mm the six following years. It would be an enormous commitment, and a show of confidence from the organization that they are going to keep pushing to succeed, and a sign that top free agents are willing to come to Minnesota and stay here. 

With the ages of their roster and the dearth of financial commitments, the Twins are in a good spot to throw a lot of money at a player they like. They have demonstrated reluctance at spending big on pitching, and the clubhouse has grown to really like Correa. If Scott Boras allows it, then let it be done.