Tuesday, May 9, 2023

The Twins are in an offensive funk


 

Did you know that the Twins have the second lowest batting average in all of baseball? Yikes! There is justifiable criticism of the way Carlos Correa has started the season. It's not the way you want to impress upon a team after signing a team record contract. His average has been sight, and he's never been an on base machine, nor a pure slugger, so his overall value has been limited. 

You might be tempted to look at Joey Gallo as a problem as well, but Gallo has always seen his average founder around .200. He's always paired it with a decent enough walk rate, and an outrageous power production. Even with an average below .200, his SLG is well over .500. That's the Joey Gallo you expect, and the one the Twins were counting on. Pair that with his slick glove at first, there are likely no complaints.

One thing that the two free agent signees have in common, however, is a thing that has been plaguing the entire Twins team. Not only have the Twins had the second lowest batting average, they've also had the second lowest batting average on balls in play. Gallo's is down about 40 points to no ill effect, but Correa's is down 130 points compared to last year. 

Correa's average feeds lustily upon his line drive rate. He's getting under balls a little bit, which accounts for some of the drop in average, Bad luck accounts for the rest. His walk and strike out rate aren't far off from normal. It should just be a minor adjustment to get Correa back on track, and his batted balls finding the gaps and running to the corners. 

The Twins have some growing to do, and some minor adjustments across the board. By my eye, this run of shoddy offense isn't going to last. And by shoddy offense, I mean specifically their low batting average. They are closer to the middle of the pack in runs scored and wOBA, a measure of tru offensive output. 

Furthermore, even if batting average was the total summation of a team's offensive prowess, the Twins, even in this godawful funk to start the season, are still in first place. 

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