Inevitable collapse

 Growing up a Twins fan, the rest of what would become the AL Central have always been rivals. Two teams have always stood out, Cleveland and the Chicago White Sox. The Tigers came over from the East when the divisions broke into three, but weren't good for a while when that happened. The Royals were never any good, and didn't incur a wrath in me. 

Cleveland was regularly the team at the top of the division, and seemed like the most direct competition for the Twins for the first decade or so, but then, when I happened to be living in northwest Indiana, surrounded by a bunch of Sox fans, Chicago won the World Series. Insufferable.

With that background in mind, I would like to think that this post doesn't stem from jealousy, but it sure might. What I want to know is why collapse is assumed for the Twins, but not the White Sox? Make no mistake, each team has the record they have deserved. The White Sox have been a better team than the Twins this year. The Twins, though, aren't where they are at because of some good fortune.

I'm not talking about the perception of the Twins or White Sox, I am talking about their actual position. The White Sox, if the season ended today, would be the AL Central champions, and the Twins are only a couple of games out of the final Wild Card spot, and 4.5 games behind Chicago. 

Despite there being only a 4.5 game difference in the standings, the narrative around the teams is markedly different. There was a recent piece on The Athletic or ESPN that reevaluated preseason predictions. Now, a quarter of the writers thought the White Sox were a playoff team. Nobody thought the Twins were going to be a playoff team. This was written around Memorial Day, I recall, because at the time, the Twins were in playoff position. 

The Sox are a young team, younger than the Twins. Minnesota had a playoff team in 2023, before ownership decided not to invest in the team. More importantly, the young talent in the organization failed to launch, and the starting pitching couldn't sustain the same level of success and health over the next two seasons. Collapses resulted. Are Twins collapses just assumed now?

The greatest bugaboo in those two seasons was a reliance on young players that couldn't come through. Edouard Julien is in Colorado, Matt Wallner is in St. Paul. Brooks Lee is hitting. Austin Martin gives good at bats. Royce Lewis tinkered and came back stronger. Kody Clemens is now in year two of what seems like a peak. Luke Keaschall is settling in after a slow start. The Twins are also more willing to lean on veterans on hot streaks, like Ryan Kreidler and Tristan Gray. They have a new manager whispering different things to the players. 

Like I said, the White Sox have been better this year, but they also don't have many players with a sustained track record of success either. Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery and of course Muneteka Murukami are in their break out seasons. Why are they assumed to be less likely to fall off in the second half?

The Twins have a better rotation than the White Sox, even with injuries. The White Sox have a better closer with Seranthony Dominguez, and Grant Taylor has been a developmental success, but the rest of their bullpen is just as cobbled together as the Twins'. All in, I would prefer the Twins' arms to those of the White Sox. 

To my eye, there isn't a significant talent gap between the Twins and White Sox, and I think a big reason why the Sox better than expected start is embraced while the Twins' is not is because of the perception I mentioned earlier. The White Sox have spent recent years in the baseball wilderness. Any success is going to be embraced. The Twins problems seem self inflicted, torching good will after finally winning in the playoffs and completely botching an ownership transition this year.

Importantly, they didn't spend much, but they did spend on players that are connecting, in Murakami and Dominguez. The Twins spent a little, but Victor Caratini and Josh Bell haven't been as sensational. The White Sox are trending up. Somehow, the Pohlad family is so unlikable that Jerry Reinsdorf looks great in comparison.