I don't know if I remember the offseason starting as hot as this years has. It's not like the Twins have done a lot, or undertaken some major moves, but there have certainly been a lot of decisions at the beginning of the long winter, and some other news that will help to define the course the team will take.
The first bit of news was Thad Levine's departure, but the biggest thunderbolt was the news that the Pohlad family will bee looking to sell the Twins. The news has been met with positivity, however there is still no buyer known to be in place. In the mean time, the cheap Pohlads, with a reduced TV contract are still in place, and now, they will feel no consequences for jilting their fans.
We've been told that the Twins will be able to expect a similar payroll versus last year, but I am not optimistic that that will be matched.
Of course, there is no signal of that yet, just a bunch of small moves that will presage what could be an active offseason. Derek Falvey, undoubtedly will be pulling all the levers available in order to put together the best roster he can, and at the beginning of every offseason, the first move is clearing out some peripheral players who may not be as productive as their salary would foretell.
Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot were not retained, while Max Kepler, Carlos Santana and Caleb Thielbar are free agents. Most surprisingly, Alex Kirilloff decided to retire, after a short career plagued by persistent injuries. The team did decide to retain Jorge Alcala, by picking up his $1.5m option. The next step will be arbitration hearings and agreements, and then we will be off to the races.
There will be an imperative to reduce payroll and I'm sure that Chris Paddack and Christian Vazquez are on the top of most lists, which leads me to believe that payroll is going to remain unchanged. Neither Paddack nor Vazquez stand to bring back much in return, and still retain some value for the organization. The Twins would likely have to eat salary, which defeats the purpose, or pair a prospect in order to simply offload the player, which then weakens the farm, which is likely where the Twins need to build from, all while getting nothing back but salary room and another hole.
Minnesota fans are often hung up on free agency, and will lament the teams' likely inability to be active in the market this year, but it's not an efficient use of limited resources. A million here or there might add depth, but a team like the Twins isn't going to fill major holes with superstars very often. Carlos Correa stands as a glaring exception, and even now, both he and Byron Buxton took discounts to re-sign with the organization. The Twins aren't going to pay market rate for a difference maker.
Derek Falvey is likely hoping for a job with the team even after the Pohlads are gone. The best way to secure that is with young talent that will outlive the Pohlad regime. While there is certainly plenty already on the payroll, I would expect any moves to improve the team to involved pure baseball moves. Prospects for prospects, or young major leaguers going one way or another. The current salaries won't bother the Pohlads, and the increasing salary over the years would be someone else's problem.
There has already been quite a bit of shuffling, and it looks like there is going to be a substantial bit of turnover. This may be a chaotic offseason for the Twins, and the flurry of moves from the outset sure sells that opinion. If my instinct is right, that most of the moves are going to be the pure baseball moves I called out, they can take a while. It's busy right now, but that doesn't mean the Twins will be making their big moves any time soon. For the moment, they've certainly been spinning quite a few plates.
