Softening the blow

The Twins have stared into a similar abyss in the past. In the early 90s, not long after the 1991 World Series, the team started disassembling piecemeal. It didn't help that the 1994 strike showed up and drove Shane Mack to Japan and Kent Hrbek out of baseball. Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson were never the same pitcher after 1991 (or before, really) and by 1995, the Twins had Chuck Knoblauch and memories. 

From 2010 to 2012, the Twins fortunes were also turned on their head, thanks to a couple of, well, head injuries. The run of contention ended when Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau sustained long term concussion related injuries. Whatever reload the Twins might have thought they were prepared for fell through with their two stars injured, and their supporting cast then leaving in free agency. 

Terry Ryan was many things, but he was not good at rebuilding quickly. The late 90s and the 2010s were dark, dark times. The Twins of 2024 and 2025 will now symbolize the end of an era. This was ushered in by tightening purse strings rather than injuries to major cogs of the team, though there were certainly injuries. Those differences weren't career enders, and nobody got away for nothing. Say what you will about Derek Falvey, but this time, the Twins saw the end of the line coming, and made sure to restock the minor league system.

For so long, I've heard many fans wish the Twins were more like the Rays. Well, you got your wish. The Twins have sold their talent at maximum value, trying to restock the talent on their team with young players. It's painful, but if the Twins are going to be a small payroll team now, they are going to have to be trading good players with team control to patch holes with young talent. 

Or maybe, the Twins will be sold, and payroll will increase. Whatever the case may be, the Twins need internal talent in order to form the foundation of the next contending group of Twins. The deadline hurt, and the end of the season has sucked, but the bounceback shouldn't take as long as other Twins downturns. 

With that hope, though, there must be an acknowledgement that this version of the Twins doesn't work. The strength of a contending team cannot be the bullpen. The Twins have tried to turn that into future rotation and lineup strength, on top of the existing prospect. One advantage of the bad teams of yore was their ability to allow prospects to develop. It's probably too late for Ryan Jeffers or Trevor Larnach to be a part of the next good Twins team. The same can't be said about Austin Martin or Brooks Lee.

The Twins were able to keep plugging Torii Hunter and Michael Cuddyer in to some bad lineups until it started to click for them. Royce Lewis isn't yet through his first full healthy season, like Martin and Lee. Martin seems to be figuring it out. Lewis or Lee could. So could Matt Wallner. And that's to say nothing of Walker Jenkins or Kaelen Culpepper, a couple of helium prospects in the systm.

The Twins are bad right now, and will probably struggle. There might be a work stoppage for 2027, but this is a team that the front office likely expects to be strong contenders within 3 years. Enjoy the ride on the way back up.

Making the most of it.

It's been a while since the Twins have been able to truly enjoy a season in which many of the players were auditioning for the next season. Generally, when things aren't going particularly well, that means not many of those auditions are going well either. Such is the case with the Twins, though not all of them are going poorly. There are a few players who have likely played themselves into a real role in 2026. 

I'm not talking about guys like Byron Buxton, who is obviously the focus of the team, or Luke Keaschall. the only spark the team seams to have had when he's healthy. I'm talking about players who were not necessarily on the radar at all, or at least emerged as a candidate for a greater role than they were expected to have on July 31st. 

In particular, the two top names I am thinking of make the trade with the Blue Jays a few seasons ago have been standing out the brightest. Now that the stadium is empty, Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson are really showing up. 

Austin Martin, in particular, has been a welcome surprise. Martin didn't see Target Field until after the deadline, as he was in St. Paul up until that point. For the Saints, he was hitting over .300, and now with the Twins, he is hitting .296. For having almost no power, his OPS is nearly .800 in his time with the Twins, and as filling the role of utility player has accumulated .9 win above replacement. His walk rate and strike out rate are improved over his freshman campaign, and it looks like we are finding out the type of player he is going to be.

Essentially, Marin is being asked to replace Willi Castro. For comparison, Martin's WAR production exceeds Castro's for the full season (thanks to Castro being trash with the Cubs) but Martin has produced .9 wins in a month and a half against Castro's 1.1 in 3 months. Martin offers the positional flexibility Castro does, along with being a regular table setter for a team in dire need of one. 

In the month of September, following a stint on the IL for a stomach ailment, Simeon Woods Richardson has been the anchor of the Twins rotation. Heck, he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Certainly, SWR has shown flashes before, but also some valleys (like August, while fighting the initial stages of his tummy bug) but he has the tuff to strike out 11 per 9, as he has done this month.

Woods-Richardson has proven to be effective when he is not giving up the long ball, which he hasn't been this month. This is a similar course to the one Brad Radke started his career with, though Radke didn't strikeout as many batters, which meant he worked deeper into games. But for now, a healthy Simeon Woods Richardson is a nice asset. 

Taj Bradley, Cole Sands and Kody Clemens have also shown flashes of brilliance to go along with the established stars and these recently emergent players. The cupboard is not bare. The Twins will, as always, hinge on their health and depth. If nothing else, at least Austin Martin can play a few different positions. 

Confidence!

 I referee high school basketball during the winter, and it's generally not as bad as you might think, from a verbal abuse standpoint. One of my favorite parts of the game is listening to coaches talk to their players, hearing the relationships and development, and the personalities that go into generating a well rounded player and person. 

I was at a game between a couple of smaller charter schools that weren't especially talented, but very spirited. Their coach was very encouraging, and very chatty with his players, and came to their defense often. One play that sticks out in my mind was early in the shot clock, their point guard launched what would have been a logo three pointer, had the court had a logo. Based on everything I had seen to this point, the shot was ill-advised. 

The coach, instead of giving a tortured "NO!" where the average coach would, upon seeing the shot, just shouted "CONFIDENCE!"  

I don't remember if the basket went in, honestly, but the proclamation has always lived in my brain, and whenever I see or hear the word, that is how it is uttered in my brain. What does that have to do with anything?

Confidence is the reason why the Twins are running out journeymen relievers and bench players. Despite what prospect watchers might have you believe, there isn't really a prospect banging down the door, demanding a call up. The top hitting prospect still with the Saints is Emmannual Rodriguez, whose OPS hasn't been able to surpass that of Mickey Gasper or Johnny Pareda in St. Paul. The numbers are good, but why burn through confidence in meaningless games, especially if the developmental profile might not quite be there yet. 

The pitchers people want to see are almost all starters. I think in this case, the Twins just want to keep pitchers stretched out, rather than having them come up and pitch a few innings of relief. There is a good chance the Twins will need more young starter next year. 

Might as well look ahead to the future, I guess.

Well, it's September now. Suffice to say, the baseball season hasn't quite gone as Minnesota fans would have hoped. It's been a trend since the halcyon days of 2023. We don't deserve hope or nice things, and it's all gone south. It's not all the Pohlads, either. There has been a lack of development among offensive prospects and unfortunate injuries, with the most impactful usually afflicting the pitching staff. 

Where do the Twins go from here? I am personally of the opinion that the pitching on this team, if the starters can stay healthy, will be a strength for the next couple of years. The Twins haven't been able to lead their rotation with someone as good and cost controlled ass Joe Ryan since Johan Santana. They haven't had two at the top like Lopez and Ryan since Santana and Radke. The Twins have been in the pitching wilderness for a very long time.

But alas, the offense stinks, and owners still want a salary cap, which means the 2027 season is in a dire situation. The AL Central is always a winnable proposition, but with the Tigers and Royals ascendant, even if the Twins have the arms, the bats aren't likely to come around soon enough. If you are planning for 2026, you might as well also look ahead to 2027, and the concern that it may not even happen.

Hey, sidebar for a minute. The funny thing to me is that the Pohlads are absolutely going to push among the hardest for a salary cap, but the only way it would ever get done is if the Major League cap ends up around the luxury cap line. Cap or no cap, the Twins aren't going to come close to spending that much, so who cares?

Back on track.

If you are thinking about next year, with a real belief that 2027 isn't going to happen, then the window to make a decision on Ryan and Lopez is fast approaching. Either go for it in 2026, or punt. The Pohlads are still interested in selling the team, by the sounds of it, which probably means the Twins are punting. 

It seems like the Red Sox are going to be the most interested in Joe Ryan, as they have been all along. The Twins have a lot of prospects waiting to break through, so I think the Twins will be inclined to add Major League talent in any trades. Given the Twins' difficulty in adding players that can actually hit, I imagine the Twins would build a trade around a position player. I think Wilyer Abreu is probably a major component of a likely return for Ryan, primarily because he has more time under team control than Jarren Duran.

The return Lopez would commend is going to be dampened by having a larger contract, as well as the injuries that have followed him the past couple of years. I think the Twins may be more inclined to find a trade partner willing to offer prospects in a Pablo Lopez deal. Baltimore still has a young core, and should be looking to return to contention, but this time with veteran leadership in the bullpen. Organizing a deal around Colby Mayo would give the Twins an option at first base, which has somehow become a nettlesome issue over the years. 

Trevor Larnach is probably pushed out in this scenario. He's on the Joe Ryan/Pablo Lopez timeline as well, though, so it's probably for the best for all parties involved if he is perhaps included with one of the other deals. Bailey Ober is stuck in the middle as well, but may benefit from a change in scenery. Ryan Jeffers gets to play out his contract, as the Twins value veteran catchers, and the other options out there are anemic.

The Twins wouldn't likely be much good next year, but they would be full of young players trying to prove themselves, looking to get better. The bounceback into contention would be shorter than it would be with the attrition and hope model exercised by past Twins teams on the downslide. A guy can be optimistic.

Here is what the starting rotation would look like.
Simeon Woods-Richardson
Zebby Matthews
David Festa
Taj Bradley
Mick Abel

The bullpen would carry some assorted veteran free agents and starting pitching prospects that aren't working out, as well as Cole Sands, Kody Funderburk and Justin Topa.

The lineup would include
C Ryan Jeffers
1b Colby Mayo
2b Luke Keaschall
SS Brooks Lee
3b Royce Lewis
RF Matt Wallner
CF Byron Buxton
LF Wilyer Abreu
DH I don't know, Alan Roden?

Bench
Mickey Gasper
Kody Clemens
James Outman
Austin Martin

I've only included players currently on the 40 man aide from trade acquisition. Obviously, Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper and Emmannual Rodriguez will be considerations early in the season.