The Twins are.... going for it?

All of the headlines and projections about the Twins leading into the offseason have been dystopian. The Twins were going to crater the payroll and trade away everyone of any value, and the team was never going to be competitive as long as the Pohlads are around. All of that is still partially true, but it seems to be that things may not be as bleak as they were at first blush.

The Twins have made three moves in the last couple of weeks that perhaps raised an eyebrow here and there. The first was the acquisition of reliever Eric Orze, who will immediately slot in to the middle of the Twins 2026 bullpen. The former Ray will work to get his walk rate under control, but was a relatively inexpensive pick up of a player with a positive WAR last year. Orze has some of the tools that the Twins are happy to have, and have made work in the past. Speaking of the bullpen, they also came to an agreement with Justin Topa, one of the three remnants of last years bullpen, along with Cole Sands and Kody Funderburke. 

One of the first moves Derek Falvey oversaw when he took over the Twins was finding a catcher. The idea was that a good receiver would make the entire staff better, and if they had other tools, that was even better. The Twins sent Payton Eeles to Baltimore for Alex Jackson, who was looking like the third option for the Orioles next year. Parker Hageman breaks down Jackson's value better than I could dream to, but the short version is that Jackson showed tangible development as a hitter last year, and he has the skills (read: arm strength and pop time) to help combat the increased value placed on stolen bases. 

Then, there was the non-tender deadline. Deshawn Keirsey Jr. was let go, but Trevor Larnach was tendered a contract, to the surprise of many. He's a useful player, but not in the field, and he doesn't have such an incredible hit tool that he is indispensable. Still, on many teams, he is a good platoon hitter from the left side of the plate. He wasn't as good last year as he was in 2024, but the regression wasn't as far back as, say, Jose Miranda, who was let go earlier, or Matt Wallner, who still projects as the starting right fielder in 2026. Larnach is going to have an opportunity to plug gaps if Wallner falters, or succeed with another strong left handed bat in the lineup. 

Is there a trend here? Well, yeah. The Twins didn't take the cheapest way out. None of those moves are flashy, but also, none of them indicate a race to the bottom, where payroll is concerned. There is still time for a devastating trade, and to watch every free agent sign with the Dodgers, but the Twins have the benefit of playing in the American League Central. Contention is never that far off. 

The Twins are obviously on a downturn, but they don't believe that it needs to hit rock bottom. A few players, some that even clicked in recent years, like Bailey Ober, Larnach, Royce Lewis and Wallner make this team look a lot different than what many fear. At that point, these little investments in November might look cagey. For now, we can use them to stave off seasonal depression. 

Grasping at straws

 There is a lot riding on the Twins this offseason. While there are other big names in the market, the Twins might have two of the biggest names, in Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez. If you read many national and some local writers, and especially fans of a popular Twins forum, those two are as good as gone, and the Twins are in a race to the bottom. 

They will take Byron Buxton's comments that he might reconsider his stance - long term loyalty to the Twins - if the tear down continues as evidence that the roster purge will continue. Of course, Buxton never said that the purge would continue, and isn't on record as saying that he might consider approving a trade. And it might be possible that Buxton is trying to proffer evidence that is quite the opposite. If he through the Twins were going to continue the tear down, he would be ok moving on. But he isn't, because he doesn't think the Twins are going to continue tearing it down. 

On the other hand, there are words from Derek Falvey, which indicate that the team is looking to add to the roster as it stands right now. That would indicate that there will be no tear down, but he did give the caveat that there hasn't been any direction yet from ownership. A tear down may yet happen, but it isn't guaranteed. Falvey likely understands that the AL Central is always in play with a little bit of effort, and is willing to put it in.

And this tracks with the deadline. Per reports, the Twins asked for Christian Walker in a Carlos Correa trade, and Wilyer Abreu in a Joe Ryan deal. Those are trade asks for a team looking to turn it around quickly. As with anything, it depends entirely on the Pohlads' appetite, which given the last year of headlines, may be a bit larger, if only to save a bit of face. 

Another factor that may loom large is the potential for a lockout after next season. Is it more likely that there is a lock out for 2027, rendering the two years left on deals only one year? Does that mean the Twins should maximize the value on their starting pitchers, rather than hanging on for only one go around? These questions and scenarios are all speculative. An early Twins trade will set the offseason. Hanging onto them will signify something else, something more optimistic.

But it's all speculation. Actions will speak louder than words. There has only been one spot of real news since the season ended. The Twins set their coaching staff for the year, including new manager Derek Shelton, a Gardenhire and Grady Sizemore. Players seem happy, and fans are warming up to the new manager. 

Other than that, nothing has really happened yet.

But what does Derek Shelton's return mean?

 

There is a world in which the hiring of Derek Shelton makes a lot of sense. That world is not necessarily the one occupied by Twins fans, who are disenfranchised by the ownership's decision to stop spending money, and the drastic changes to the roster that the front office took at the deadline. The hiring of Shelton also marks a significant landmark.

He is the first Twins manager to be hired that has had Major League managerial experience in 50 years. The Pohlads have never hired an experienced manager. Most Twins fans don't have any experience with looking at a manager with a track record, and frankly, any that are on the market likely have a few dark patches. As Matthew Leach points out, though, baseball history is littered with managers who had a significantly better time of it with their second go-round. 

Not to mention, this is Shelton's second spin with the Twins. He got the job in Pittsburgh because of his performance as the Twins' bench coach early in the Rocco era. He probably interviewed well with the Twins because what he did here back in 2019 seemed to work. Maybe also because Dereks just get along. 

In short, there are a couple of factors to the opinion on Shelton that I just don't ascribe to. The first that his track record is indicative of future success. We Twins fans just aren't used to having such a public resume. Second is that this is indicative of some sort of cowardice from the front office, or of poor decision making. 

One thing that Derek Falvey is not, is a coward. For a long time, many people wanted the Twins to be more like the Tampa Bay Rays, or have a plan like the Astros did when they tore everything down in order to build things back up to what they've been for the past decade or so. Well, here it is. 

After some initial success, the front office was granted some extra spending money, which they used to good effect and a playoff victory. When that money went away, the Twins needed to change horses mid race. Falvey was aggressive with trades early in his tenure, and made some tactical signings in the offseason. That slowed down as they tried to coast after the payroll reduction following the 2023 season, and struggled because of they couldn't afford any depth.

So here it is. The Rays/Astros method. What both of those organizations understood is something that Terry Ryan and Bill Smith never seemed to be on board with. Not every prospect hits, so when you are building things back, having more chances is a vital strategy to success (and a willingness to trade them when you are in your competitive success, since pennants fly forever, and prospects might not arrive ever). The important thing to that if you have a limited payroll, you are going to have to take chances. 

How much of Terry Ryan's ethos was driven by a risk averse ownership group? How much of it was a product of Terry Ryan's own personality? How much of bringing Derek Shelton back is because he is familiar face, and how much is it because Falvey is taking a chance?

Is the ownership group no longer willing to take chances, or can Falvey still try to run a baseball team?