Existence as a Twins fan usually involves getting more or less excited about some player, then seeing those hopes dashed almost immediately. The Twins don't so much string you along, as break your heart very quickly. I guess that's nice in a way. This year, Royce Lewis got hurt in the first game, and Carlos Correa got hurt only 10 games later. This is compounded with all the bullpen aches and pains that led up to the season.
Naturally, at the beginning of the season, Lewis was heralded as a breakout player, Carlos Correa was healthy and would get a bounceback player, while the bullpen was seen as a real strength of the roster, so of course those were all players that kept getting nicked up.
This isn't a surprise at this point. It seems like the Twins are troubled by injury annually, and always early in the season. We speculate on who might fill in should someone get injured, and then we end up with a full season of Bailey Ober because Kenta Maeda got hurt right away. Austin Martin has been on the roster and playing nearly every game already.
Also this season, we've been granted another dreadful start. At the beginning of today's game, three players in the lineup started with an OPS below .300, which is actually pretty terrible. It's an unfortunate trend for as long as I can remember. I think over the course of my nearly 20 years (Jesus, 20 years?) of writing about the Twins online, I've had a nearly annual "who cares about the pitching if they can't hit?" post that comes out this time of year.
One trend this year, however, is that their "Clutch" rating isn't that far below normal. Since 2021, the Twins have the lowest aggregate "clutch" rating, according to Fangraphs, in all of baseball. Essentially, it shows how much better or worse a team does in high leverage situations compared to their normal performance. This should be a stat that levels off over time, and the Twins simply haven't leveled off from their awful situational performances since the pandemic.
This year though, they have hit nearly as well in high leverage situations as in regular play. Unfortunately, that's only because the Twins haven't hit during any situation. They went on an 0-28 streak with runners in scoring position, and it wasn't THAT much worse than they normally hit.
These three things, the early season injuries, the slow offensive starts and the poor performance in the clutch can all be attributed to bad luck, small samples or variance in their own ways. But the trend is there. This happens every year, and there isn't really an answer (aside from a curse). Maybe it's cultural, or has to do with offseason workouts.
Back when the Twins were regularly getting to the playoffs and turning into pumpkins, it was clear something about the team was different when they got there. I insisted it was time for a change at the top, to change the team mindset. If the Twins can't get to the playoffs this year, and this season opening funk is a big part of that, it might be time for a change in 2024 as well. There is something off here, and that's the only place I can think to look.
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