Wasted energy

 I'm sure it's a function of living within the local media market, and being an obsessive follower of Twins fan sites and social media accounts, but it sure seems like the Twins ownership, the Pohlad family, gets a lot more heat than other ownership groups. I'm not here to carry water for the family, if that's what it seems like I'm doing, but rather I'm here to give context to this season's payroll reduction, TV situation, and suggest that even if the Pohlad's sold the team, I'm not sure it would get that much better.

This offseason was marked by television negotiations. The team was expected to find a new streaming friendly deal that would keep the team on the air throughout the 5 state area. In the end, they were only able to get a 1 year deal for an undisclosed amount less than they had made under their previous contract. The Twins took the deal with their previous carrier, the now bankrupt Diamond Sports, which meant no streaming, and fans were upset about the cash grab. 

But if this was a cash grab, that implies that this deal, the one that brought the Twins less (I would guess about 30m less per year) than they had in 2023, for only one year, was the best deal on the table. Last year, I didn't hear about any other options, and there is no buzz about the potential of another deal this offseason, either. 

The argument about the Pohlads is that they are extremely wealthy, and yet they are short changing the Twins. At this point, the Twins are a generational asset for the Pohlads, and not one wealthy person's flight of fancy. Financial decisions to some degree are not fully siloed within the Twins organization, and also, the wins and losses of the team aren't necessarily as important to all the decision makers as the bottom line. 

A case has been made in recent years, certainly, to make the Twins more marketable, and there was an increase in payroll, but it didn't work. There is no lucrative TV deal. The Twins won in the playoffs for the first time, and admittedly in part because of the terrible PR and bad vibes, attendance is down, despite wins being up. No TV, decreased attendance.... The Pohlads may never spend on players again.

But there is value in scarcity. The Pohlads will see the Twins value increase, because there are only 30 teams in the league. There will be a chance that a passionate Twins fan will be interested in the team some day, but they will have to pay through the nose for the team. I wonder who that could be, if such a person even exists. 

If the Pohlads sell, it would likely be to an investment minded person or organization. The Pohlads at least have ties to Minnesota, and despite the tight purse strings, are not as miserly as Contraction Carl. Does the next investor in the team look at the history, the difficult media partnership possibilities an declining attendance in the face of an improving roster and feel any additional desire to augment the team? 

The Pohlads are entitled to do what with their money they please, and you are allowed to feel how you want. Just understand that the days of the free spending Pohlads are probably over, and there is no guarantee that they are ever going away.

Experience comes from experience

 This has been a bumpy week for the Twins, without a doubt. Some heart can be taken in the fact that they have been playing three NL teams that are vying for a playoff spot, but it was still a testament to a young rotation and an overworked bullpen. For better or worse, however, the Twins are still only 2.5 games out of first place and have an 88% chance of reaching the playoffs. 

Despite nearly everything that has gone wrong in the last few weeks, it appears as though the Twins are well on their way to the Playoffs. There is elevated concern now about Bailey Ober after his most recent start, the cataclysm against the Braves, despite his brilliance leading up to this game, which happened to be against a team that has had Minnesota's number for years, in an extremely unfavorable weather setting. 

Greater concern is given to tonight's starter, and two of his brethren. It looks more and more like Simeon Woods-Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews, all rookies, will factor into the Post season roster, with SWR likely starting a potential game three, and Festa and Matthews perhaps pitching out of the bullpen.

People are concerned.

Of course, Woods-Richardson has been pretty good this season, working a 3.69 ERA as a starter before tonight. Where the concern lies is in his experience. Simeon Woods-Richardson, having this be his official rookie season, has never pitched in the postseason. Nor have Festa or Matthews. Ober pitched last season, making this his second turn in the playoffs. It didn't go well the first time, but after a strong regular season, hopes are high. 

For playoff aspirant teams, there is always a demand for battle hardened, playoff tested pitching. The Twins leaned on Pablo Lopez, who was pitching in HIS second postseason, and Sonny Gray who was inconsistent in the playoffs before he was with the Twins, and while with the Twins. Lopez's previous experience, during the 2020 silly season with the Marlins, was wildly different, as the Marlins were playing with house money at that point. His real playoff testing came against the Blue Jays and Astros last year.

And that's the positive spin of this pending post season. The Twins are clearly not going to be making big moves to bring in a front of the rotation starter, but they are going to be near the top of the AL Central for the next several years. You get playoff experience by experiencing he playoffs, and Woods-Richardson, Festa, Matthews and even Ober and Lopez are going to get some more experience. Maybe this won't be their year, but looking at the pieces in place, there will be more chances. 

Really, from this perspective, the only bad news is that Joe Ryan might not get to add the experience as well. And who knows, you play the game on the field, and not on paper. Maybe one of those rookies is going to be precocious, and push the Twins over the edge.

Vibe check

 The Twins are getting squeezed on both sides. Unlike last year when the Twins were eying the postseason, they are both pursuing and being pursued. There was no real competition, the Twins had good starting pitching, and things just seemed a lot more comfortable.

This season has been fraught. Not only are they pursuing the Cleveland Guardians, but the Kansas City Royals are on their heels as well. There isn't any margin for error, and added pressure makes it seem like the Twins are struggling this year much more significantly than the last. On August 20th last year, the Twins won to go to 65-60, while starting Dallas Keuchel against the Pirates. Today, their record is 70-55, but the narratives are all bad.

Part of that, surely, is the two teams they are vying with in the AL Central, and two of the positive narratives those two teams have. Both are fairly raw topics for the Twins fan base, and seeing another organization with success in these areas causes tremors. 

Cleveland has generally improved across the board, but an always above average bullpen has proven to be elite this year. Now, of course, every team is concerned about their bullpen, but the Twins are frustrated in point because they are not getting contributions from players they expected to rely on in the pen. Jhoan Duran and Caleb Thielbar are just off, while free agent additions Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont are already gone, and trade acquisition Justin Topa has been on the shelf all year. There are reasons for fans to be concerned about this pen! 

On the other side of the Twins, is the Kansas City Royals, who were certainly not expected to be where they are this year. Part of the success is attributable to the growth of Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, last year's Joe Ryan-esque acquisition, Cole Ragans, MJ Melendez, Michael Massey and Brady Singer, as well as the renaissance of Salvador Perez. Many people may point to the signings for Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha - who have absolutely been out of their minds this season, producing at a career level, but there is more to the mix than just the free agent acquisitions. 

The Twins have a young rotation, which got younger when Sonny Gray signed with St. Louis, but younger still when Anthony DeSclafani and Chris Paddack got injured. The Twins cut their budget this year, but still managed to get a better pitcher than 2024 Sonny Gray as their #2 arm (Joe Ryan) and their third pitcher is better than last years third option (2024 Bailey Ober vs 2023 Joe Ryan).The real tough spot is at the beginning of the rotation, where Pablo Lopez isn't getting the same level of productivity he got last year, even as his peripherals remain strong.

The Twin are a better team this year than they were last year, and their weaknesses are maybe not entirely as weak as we feel they are. On paper, this is an improved team, even if the vibes are bad.