Vibe check

 The Twins are getting squeezed on both sides. Unlike last year when the Twins were eying the postseason, they are both pursuing and being pursued. There was no real competition, the Twins had good starting pitching, and things just seemed a lot more comfortable.

This season has been fraught. Not only are they pursuing the Cleveland Guardians, but the Kansas City Royals are on their heels as well. There isn't any margin for error, and added pressure makes it seem like the Twins are struggling this year much more significantly than the last. On August 20th last year, the Twins won to go to 65-60, while starting Dallas Keuchel against the Pirates. Today, their record is 70-55, but the narratives are all bad.

Part of that, surely, is the two teams they are vying with in the AL Central, and two of the positive narratives those two teams have. Both are fairly raw topics for the Twins fan base, and seeing another organization with success in these areas causes tremors. 

Cleveland has generally improved across the board, but an always above average bullpen has proven to be elite this year. Now, of course, every team is concerned about their bullpen, but the Twins are frustrated in point because they are not getting contributions from players they expected to rely on in the pen. Jhoan Duran and Caleb Thielbar are just off, while free agent additions Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont are already gone, and trade acquisition Justin Topa has been on the shelf all year. There are reasons for fans to be concerned about this pen! 

On the other side of the Twins, is the Kansas City Royals, who were certainly not expected to be where they are this year. Part of the success is attributable to the growth of Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, last year's Joe Ryan-esque acquisition, Cole Ragans, MJ Melendez, Michael Massey and Brady Singer, as well as the renaissance of Salvador Perez. Many people may point to the signings for Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha - who have absolutely been out of their minds this season, producing at a career level, but there is more to the mix than just the free agent acquisitions. 

The Twins have a young rotation, which got younger when Sonny Gray signed with St. Louis, but younger still when Anthony DeSclafani and Chris Paddack got injured. The Twins cut their budget this year, but still managed to get a better pitcher than 2024 Sonny Gray as their #2 arm (Joe Ryan) and their third pitcher is better than last years third option (2024 Bailey Ober vs 2023 Joe Ryan).The real tough spot is at the beginning of the rotation, where Pablo Lopez isn't getting the same level of productivity he got last year, even as his peripherals remain strong.

The Twin are a better team this year than they were last year, and their weaknesses are maybe not entirely as weak as we feel they are. On paper, this is an improved team, even if the vibes are bad.