Cash for your consideration

 As seems to always be the case, the Twins are in a complicated and uncomfortable situation. Again, as always seems to be the case with the Twins, there are ownership complications that affect any realistic strategy that the front office can employ. Instead of simply reducing the payroll allowances, the issues are magnified both by the high pressure of the deadline and the potential sale of the team. 

The front office right now is not building for a future that the Pohlads are in charge of. In fact, they may not be building for a future that Derek Falvey or Jeremy Zoll are a part of. How forward thinking should the Twins be? When looking at the future, do they plan for a Pohlad level payroll, or towards a payroll that will likely go up with less frugal owners? Do you know? I don't. 

If this was only strategic on a baseball development side, I would note the clear strength of the team - the bullpen - is a volatile component and may not offer the same benefits next year. A good bullpen is also fully unnecessary on a team that is no longer in contention. With that in mind, I would trade the rental players best as I could, as well as a couple of relievers with team control. Brock Stewart is 33 and has an injury history. Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran are nearly the same in terms of mound talent, if not results. Duran is more popular locally. I would move Jax, leaving Duran and Louis Varland to backstop the pen next year.

The offense has been problematic all season. The seeming bumper crop of young offensive talent has not come through in a meaningful way. The top offensive player drafted and developed by the current regime is, I don't know, Ryan Jeffers? So the team could stand to add some forward looking offensive depth at the deadline, and moving a player like Jax in particular could bring a usable player to Minnesota immediately. 

There is a lot of talk about the availability of Joe Ryan, but that doesn't really offer a fair assessment of where the Twins are as a franchise. Their two biggest contracts right now are in the middle of those players' peaks. From a baseball perspective, it makes a lot more sense to keep him than trade him, because next year, Ryan would need to be immediately replaced. From the sale of the team's perspective, Ryan is a great selling point, and likely something prospective buyers don't want to see gone.

But the Pohlad's are in charge and still in debt. That might be the most important factor in the deadline. If the Twins aren't actually on the cusp of a sale, continued paring of the payroll is important, and any arbitration eligible Twins could be on the block. If a new owner with a willingness to spend is coming and the front office knows it, none of the arb eligible players are going to go.

It seems that the best way to assess the deadline is this. The Twins FO has potentially little stake in the future, but there are players already to be free agents. It would be malpractice not to see them shipped out for something. But then, there is the debt. The Pohlads have always been cost conscious, and this has to be grating. I assume this is why the team is even on the market. 

The deadline is going to be active for the Twins, and given all the factors illustrated above, I am inclined to believe that a lot of those deals are going to involve cash coming back to Minnesota. Appreciate the prospects the team does get back.

Mid-season break, and I'm not ready to give up yet.

 

The buzzards are circling the Minnesota Twins*. I've had wildly changing opinions about the team, from delight to grief, but the fact of the matter is that the team isn't in as bad a position as you perhaps feel. It's too bad they dropped their final game against the Pirates to send the team into the break off of a sweep, relishing Byron Buxton's cycle from Saturday, and being a .500 team, just 3 games out of the Wild Card hunt. 

The Twins are going to come out of the break and bring back Zebby Matthews and secret wild card Luke Keaschall. Many are awaiting Matthews return, but the pitching of late has stabilized. As demonstrated by their rough offensive outing on Sunday, the spark Keaschall may bring is really needed. Of course, the biggest kick in the pants will be playing the Rockies right out of the gate. A sweep there, if it were to happen, brings the Twins to maybe 2 games out of the Wild Card.

Certainly not a team looking to tear things down. 

Everything with the Twins needs to be looked at through the lens of a potential team sale, which to me blunts any forward thinking maneuvers at the deadline. Derek Falvey might not be building towards anything, and the Twins may not want to be left holding the bag with any big swings on controllable contracts. With that said, there are certainly baseball reasons not to expect a big July with the transactions.

First, more optimistically, the Twins aren't that far out of it. Fangraphs has them as somewhere between 1/4 and 1/5 chance of making the playoffs. A good series in Colorado (followed by taking at least one in LA against the Dodgers) should see that number rise. That's not a team that typically subtracts pieces, nor would one recommend they make big acquisitions. But this team would be adding near the deadline, as Pablo Lopez is on track to return in early August.

Even if the team takes a turn for the worse, which obviously this is Minnesota, it doesn't make sense to destroy the core right now. Buxton and Carlos Correa are in the middle of contracts, team friendly in Buxton's case. A powerful 1-2 at the top of the rotation remains in place, and Matthews, David Festa and Simeon Woods-Richardson are coming along nicely (to say nothing of Bailey Ober, if he shakes whatever is bothering him.) 

There may be some calculated moves regardless of the situation. The Twins obviously need offensive help, and Keaschall isn't going to bring all of it. Bullpen arms are always in demand at the deadline, and the Twins are well positioned there, and always willing to transition strong arms to later innings, if it fits. The Twins want to surely keep every member of their bullpen, but if a major league player with more team control goes, I wouldn't be surprised if they were part of that unit, regardless of where the Twins stand on July 31st. 

The first half is done, and this was supposed to be forward thinking. It doesn't help that the trade deadline is only a couple of weeks after the All Star Break. The point is, it isn't all doom and gloom, even if Jim Bowden thinks the Twins would be smart to trade all of their best players. They wouldn't be, and they won't. In a season of rises and falls, the Twins are amidst a good stretch that will continue next weekend. They will be in contention longer than current headlines would lead you to believe. 

*I didn't realize until well after I wrote this that Dan Hayes used this exact turn of phrase last week. Derek Falvey showed up in an image search for buzzards because of this.

Joe Ryan is going to the All Star Game, not anywhere else.

 

Joe Ryan is a good pitcher. I think at this point, we all agree on that, right? Even the national pundits were perplexed as to how Ryan was left off the initial All Star roster, though he was added as a replacement when Hunter Brown's turn in the rotation ended up putting him too close to the Game. This is another in a consistent run from Ryan, who will ultimately emerge from the Derek Falvey reign as his best pick up.

Truly, Ryan is exactly what Twins fans have been asking for since Johan Santana was dealt to the Mets. He is a high strikeout pitcher that stabilizes the rotation, and is doing so at the beginning of his career, rather than as a high priced free agent. Heck, he even came to Minnesota as a flyer from a Florida based team. Th wit correlation between Santana and Pablo Lopez exists because of a mutual admiration and shared heritage, but Ryan and Santana have similar meaning to the Twins organization.

Santana got going at a younger age than Ryan did. In fact, Ryan's current age profile puts him at about the same age as Santana was during his first couple of seasons with the Mets. Because he started in the majors at an older age, years 1-3 for Ryan don't align really at all with Santana's, but his current numbers, the strikeouts, the rate statistics, align nicely with Johan at the same age.

Johan, obviously, is a lefty and had a longer track record than Ryan did to this age, but after age 29, the outlook for Ryan look much better than it did for Santana. Not only did he get started sooner, but he worked a ton of innings, well over 200 in his last 4 seasons with the Twins, followed by two heavy inning workloads with the Mets essentially spelled the end of his career.

Barring something unforeseen, Joe Ryan has many more years ahead of him to really leave a mark as a Twins legend. By the time he reaches the open market, he will be 33 when he is a free agent. They will have him through what should be his peak years at a manageable salary. He has runway to start accumulating stats to go with the rate stats while in a Twins uniform.

There is a remarkable amount of talk about the Twins and their potential trade assets. The first targets should be the players on expiring deals, of course, particularly Willi Castro and Chris Paddack, who may even attract a usable return. Talk of Byron Buxton being moved are ludicrous because of his no trade clause and good contract. If any controllable players are traded, I could see a reliever change team for a hefty premium. To make that point hit home, former Twins Emilio Pagan and Ronny Henriquez are closing for their teams now, and Trevor Megill is an all star, closing for the Brewers. You can never really tell with relievers, so get comfortable with trading and replacing them.

But Joe Ryan shouldn't be a realistic part of the discussions. His time under contract aligns with the window provided by Buxton and Carlos Correa, as well as Pablo Lopez at the top of the rotation. The window is now, and rebuilding through trading important cogs isn't a currently feasible strategy. Joe Ryan is too important, and will remain so for a few more seasons.

Ownership change needed.

One thing I always note about the Twins is that, regardless of how bad things might seem, it isn't as bad as it could get. The Twins are playing poorly, they have suffered injuries, and they have an ownership group with cash flow issues and a reluctance to spend money. But it isn't as bad as it could be! No, that title belongs to the Pirates.

Pittsburgh is a fantastic sports town, willing to support their teams with fans in stands and money for stadiums. They play in a central division that is every bit as wide open as the American League is, at least for the past few years. They develop talented players, draft fairly well, and get rid of all that talent as soon as they start making any money. 

The Pirates have one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, higher only than the Rays and A's, currently playing in Minor League stadiums, the White Sox, who are undergoing a massive overhaul and rebuild and the Marlins who, frankly, are similar to the Pirates, but different. Miami isn't as big a sports town because, well, beaches, but Pittsburgh is. The Pirates stand out like a sore, underfunded thumb. 

And some might complain about market size for Pittsburgh as it relates to the rest of baseball, and yes, Pittsburgh is a down on it's luck town that is on the smaller end of baseball cities, however the city itself s larger than Milwaukee, Cleveland and Kansas City, none of the teams that were listed as having payroll problems above. I'm not saying that the Pirates should be at the top of the payroll tables, but I am saying that they should at least be in line with other teams, and sustain payroll when they start to get better, right?

For as much grousing as Minnesota has rightfully had about the Pohlads over the year, there is no question that Bob Nutting, owner of the Pirates is worse. Instead of a rising team looking to build around Paul Skenes, who is now in his second year, people are already beginning speculate on the Pirates trading him before he reaches even into arbitration. They have talent incoming, a depressed payroll, and instead of augmenting the roster, they are looking to cut costs even further.

 The Twins are frustrating because of their inability to seize opportunities. The Pirates under Nutter are indifferent to whether the opportunities come. The Pohlads have proven to have bad luck in their last two TV deals (before the RSN model really exploded, and then immediately after it popped) and have debt and cash flow issues as a result. Nutting made a business decision to not fund his team. 

The Pohlads are getting out, sooner or later. I hope Nutting does soon too.

Despair

 

Just a week ago, the Twins were in the hunt for a Wild Card spot. Sure, they had some issues against the teams from Texas, but the losses were tough luck losses, and a reason to be frustrated, but not discouraged. They were close. They were still fighting. And then they played the Reds and Brewers, over the last week, going 1-5 and not looking particularly competitive. Whatever instinct there was not to panic is gone now. Actually, panic is already in the past. It just feels hopeless. 

The Twins are getting regularly blown out now. The offense that was an issue most of the season is 8/9ths dead. Byron Buxton is playing out of his mind, to no avail. The starting pitching is struggling, and the bullpen is worse. They aren't doing anything right, at the moment. If you want the team to be buyers at the deadline, then what do you address? How? Everything needs work. 

At the beginning of the season, there was so much optimism about the development of the young core. Injuries are one thing, but in retrospect, a more troubling sign is that the Twins were looking for a left handed outfield hitter if they were going to be buyers. You know, like Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner. Both players have been part of the roster for a while now, but neither has had the breakout anyone anticipated. Had the Twins been in on that secret even sooner than the rest of us? 

The Twins are buoyed by their 13 game winning streak. Had they merely played .500 during that stretch, they would, at this point, only be better than the White Sox in the American League. Are the Twins and our fans too prone to leaning into these long streaks? Are the Twins a legitimately bad team, or do you want to pin the blame on the disruption to the pitching staff? A devastating injury or disruption to the staff almost always seems to precede a Twins collapse.

But never mind that. The diagnosis is grim, but what about the prognosis? The prescription? Frankly, with as clustered as baseball is in the standings, there aren't many sellers, and the prices are going to be high. In a normal year, I would be awaiting some windfalls for trades of players like Willi Castro and Chris Paddack. Heck, if the Twins really think that the left handed hitting needs improvement, Larnach or Wallner could go, for all I care. A full reset with a Byron Buxton trade would potentially leave the system flush with talent.

This is not a normal year, however. The Twins are up for sale, and despite Rocco Baldelli apparently having his contract picked up for next year, the entire front office is fighting for their jobs. A tactical reset, a full rebuild, whatever you call it, Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll are giving up on this iteration of the team. That is not how you prove your worth to a new owner.

It may not be the best for the future of the team, or make much logical sense, but for Falvey and Zoll, it is best for them to double down on this team. Pablo Lopez WILL come back. Zebby Matthews WILL come back. Maybe Connor Gillaspie will stabilize the bullpen. Rely on the definite, but make things happen.

The Rockies and Marlins are the best bets to be sellers, and the best potential partners for the Twins. Take a swing and grab the best players -- again, it doesn't matter their position, really -- on both teams. RP Jake Bird and corner infielder Ryan McMahon would both help the Twins from the Rockies. Marlins 2b Otto Lopez and OF Dane Meyers have been better than Jonah Bride, at least.

Do something. Standing pat as the team slides further isn't fun for fans or players, obviously, but also doesn't play well for your next employer. Shake up the team ASAP and try to pull out of this funk.

Deadline news is already filling timelines.

Nationally, the baseball world is talking about the Rafael Devers trade, and fans are beginning to settle into trade deadline season. Locally,the Twins are struggling, perhaps in need of a jolt, all while playing the Cincinnati Reds. Taken all together, the elements of this weeks baseball headlines can belong in their own boxcars in the same train of thought. 

There are many articles already out there, depending on the sports outlet of your choosing, suggesting which players might be on the market, who the buyers might want to buy and the price it might take to buy them. The national writers are telling us about the players the Twins could go after to bolster the at times anemic offense. The local writers are telling us not to hold our breath.

The last couple of years have been uninspiring, and trades have been few and far between. The money has been an issue, and if he debt is as reported, monetary investment at the deadline is unlikely. The pitching staff seems to be getting picked off man by man, but prices for starting pitchers have been extremely expensive from a prospect standpoint. It's easy to see why the local writers don't seem to think Minnesota will do anything.

Lets consider the more optimistic version, though. You know, the one of people that haven't spent their best years trying to find a reason for hope in Minnesota men's sports. The Twins need bats, which are generally less expensive in both prospects or monetary expenditure. A solid hitter would likely play in the corners, somewhere, alleviating someone like Trevor Larnach against lefties, or simply providing depth so Willi Castro doesn't have to do everything. And played correctly, will address the team's greatest weakness all season, run production.

A look at the Reds is a good lesson for the Twins, regardless of how they choose to proceed. The trade that Twins fans still look back on with derision was the one that sent multiple prospects to the Reds for Tyler Mahle. Mahle struggled with injury for his entire time in Minnesota, while Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have played on the Major League Roster. 

While the execution wasn't great. the damage was also not that great. Mahle has been good with the Rangers now that he has his health, showing that the Twins probably sought the right guy. Meanwhile, Steer and Encarnacion-Strand haven't been all that revolutionary. Steer has been better, even as this year has been down, and it seems unlikely he would have been able to leapfrog Royce Lewis at third. Corner Outfielders have starters, and simpy need someone to augment those spots, and Steer isn't that kind of player. What I am saying is that neither would have really changed the Twins roster had they stayed in Minnesota. Not for the better (or the worse), anyways. 

But Mahle would have helped in 2023, with health. Sure, money might not be there, but the Twins are fighting in a sloppy AL Central once again, and the front office, even with the headwinds against them, should try to be bold.

And Minnesotans should probably prepare to be disappointed. 

Twins send Jorge Alcala to the Red Sox

Jorge Alcala has really good stuff, and has previously been a well regarded lynchpin in the back end of the Twins bull pen. Also, every major collapse in recent memory seems to have one thing in common: Alcala. It was probably time to move on.

It wasn't just a "vibes" thing either. Alcala has the highest ERA of pitchers with as many innings as he has pitched, and he has been used quite frequently. The Twins picked up Joey Wentz off the waiver wire today, and looking at the roster, particularly the bullpen, the writing was on the wall for Alcala.

For me, the writing was a little blurry, however. I assumed Alcala would be designated for assignment and placed on waivers. There is enough ability that I thought he may get claimed, but he owned a contract that was more than what Ty France is making, so it also seemed possible he would simply be shown the door. Instead, the Red Sox jumped the line and gave up a prospect for Alcala, and will take on his contract. 

The Twins received a low level prospect known more for an impressive bat flip than for anything he has done on the field. He lay outside of the top 30 prospects for the Red Sox, and isn't expected to get to the top of the Twins charts either. Nevertheless, this trade is probably a winner for the Twins, who now have the tiniest bit of wiggle room in their payroll.

The Twins needed to do something in the wake of two injuries on the rotation and a disaster of a game on Tuesday night. They have had disruptions to the pitching staff lead directly to collapses before. This year, it was imperative that the organization not stand pat. Even though Alcala was at the fringe of the roster, and this is a bit of addition by subtraction, I think it counts as a first step. Alcala came to the Twins with Gilberto Celestino in the Ryan Pressley trade -- he's been with the team for a while. Letting a veteran go is a wake up call for everyone. Patience isn't unlimited, and players can be moved if it makes the team better.

Or put more powerfully, players WILL be moved if it makes the team better. The Twins got lucky to get a return for Alcala. The next steps will need to be more substantive. 

The importance of a good outlook.

 

It's hard not to spiral these days. A huge part of that is the algorithmic basis that so many of us get our news. We click on something, and it just feeds us more of the same. The initial click is usually some provocative headline, leading us down a rabbit hole that leads us towards more headlines, more short videos, more clips about whatever scares us the most, telling us that this thing is an even greater threat than we thought and we need to DO something about it. It's the cable news of the 2010s, but now on steroids (and ketamine). 

One of my coping methods to this world we live in is to seek sources that aren't prone to releasing click bait headlines, people that can break things down without declaring something being the end of the world, making my day even darker. I'm under no misconception about bad things being out there, but there is no value in viewing them as even worse than they actually are. 

Clickbait headlines are certainly a pervasive feature of sports media coverage, and anyone who follows the Twins is surely well aware of the "worst case scenario brand of coverage of the team, particularly when it comes to the coverage of the ownership and their decision making processes. There are Twins news sites that thrive on this type of coverage and forums exist just to break down the coverage.

This is where I refer back to my other coping methods. It's not as grim as most fans would have you believe, despite problems. A reason that there has been little outlay for free agents has something to do with the bumper crop of prospects that the team is confident will emerge in the next few years. The Twins are competitive in the AL Central, even without spending all that money. 

There have been a bunch of headlines out there about the Twins ownership situation. There were seemingly conflicting reports, that some reports stated that local investors were turned off by the price and cash flow, while others from the organization have claimed that potential buyers have been doing their diligence at Target Field, and a sale was expected to be completed. Those caught in the negative whirl wind suggest that the Twins are fabricating these stories. A perfectly reasonable explanation is that the potential buyers are not local investors. The Ishbias weren't, why would other candidates be?

An important part of coping with the negative headlines is not sticking your head in the sand and recognizing that "not as bad" doesn't mean "good". The Twins have had generally good seasons for the last few years, however what sticks in most of our memories are the collapses. They collapsed in 2022, after Wes Johnson left mid-season to return to college. They collapsed last year when Joe Ryan went down with an injury.

Ryan had the same injury that Pablo Lopez has now suffered. The Twins are comfortable with dealing with injuries to their position players. As is often noted, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are always hurt. Disruptions to the rotation are significantly more impactful. It's important to avoid getting lost in worst case scenarios and doom spiraling, but this exact scenario has played out before. 

The Twins do have more experienced depth in the rotation this year, and are more likely to be able to withstand Lopez's absence over the next couple of months, and they also have the ability to make changes to the roster before the trade deadline. They don't have to add another ace to the rotation, because there are easier moves to advance the offense. The team needs to do something now before the hypothetical spiral turns into an on field spiral. 

There may be bad news on the way, but there is a way through. That's the other way out of the reinforcing negative news cycle: make sure you are aware of the potential solutions to the various problems. The Twins have one. I hope they find it.

Twins welcome return of superstar

 Yeah, sure, Byron Buxton returned to the Twins roster today for the first time since he suffered a concussion, and his 10th inning hit and runs were huge factors in helping the Twins win. 

But that headline was referring to Carlos Correa. The real Carlos Correa is back! Since he returned from the concussion, he has an OPS of 1.081, his glove has been good, and his defense against the Mariners was a factor in the victory. Also a big factor was his go ahead homer in the 10th inning. 

He's back! Carlos Correa is back! And Buxton too, I guess. 

The Twins have a long way to the bottom

Conflicting reports came out in the last couple of days about the ongoing process of selling the Twins. Dan Hayes of the Athletic reported that the process has stalled, with potential buyers balking at the Pohlad's lofty price, the collapsed TV revenue and the debt that remains on the books. Alternately, Phil Miller from the Star Tribune refutes that report, with sources saying there have been potential buyers doing diligence, taking tours of Target Field, and that the process is now closer to the end than the beginning.

Whichever of these reports you put the most wait in is probably a good measuring stick for your approach to the team, to the media and perhaps even life in general. Cynical, probably younger and more online people not only have grown to appreciate Hayes' sense of humor and social media prowess, and a general disproval of the Pohlads seems to run through the veins of this group. Then there are those who still rely on legacy media and remember that the Pohlads brought Minnesota our most recent men's championship (Thank you ladies, for actually being able to win stuff in multiple sports), and generally can't believe how much money athletes make these days. Pessimism and optimism. The duality of Man. And Twins Fans.

I'm guessing it's somewhere between the two. The original slate of potential buyers probably has tucked tail and ran away, not unlike the Ishbia brothers, but there are also likely to be some potential investors who see an opportunity. The Pohlads, given the the team situation as well as the way sales have been going lately, probably are asking for too much money, but if they are really interested in selling, they will find a way. That family is as resilient as a cockroach.

All of this tumult, and the on field product is out there earning their debt inducing paychecks. The Twins are back up into second place in the AL Central, in position for a wild card spot, and trailing only the league's best Detroit Tigers for control of the division. This is all without much investment in the team over the last couple of years. One thing that unifies readers of Dan Hayes or Phil Miller is a readiness to point to all of the flaws in the organization, but with the noise around ownership and limited resources, the Twins must have something going for them, because it could be so much worse.

This week is probably the perfect week to have information about a potential sale come out, because it gets people like me to write posts like this. They are currently playing in Tampa, where the Rays are playing in the Yankee's spring training facility after their own stadium, Tropicana Field, was ravaged by Hurricane Helene last fall. They will fly to Seattle (thanks for that, MLB) for a weekend series, and then go to Sacramento, where the A's are also playing in a AAA facility because their owner was so desperate to leave Oakland, he didn't wait for their new facility in Las Vegas to open. 

Regardless of what happens with the sale, the Twins will continue to play home games at a beautiful outdoor facility, where the only natural disaster the Twins have to worry about is the penchant for exploding UCLs in this market. The Twins aren't moving, and there isn't a stadium issue to extort the team over. In this regard, the Twins are sitting pretty. 

They aren't paying for free agents, and looking at the Yankees, Mets, Phillies and Dodgers, you would be justified in thinking that spending into contention is the only way to win. Perhaps it is, but maybe not on player salary. The next highest payrolls belong to the Blue Jays, Rangers, Astros, Braves, Red Sox, Padres and Angels. Only the Astros and Padres are above .500, but only the Padres have a better record than the Twins. 

The Twins invested heavily in scouting under the Terry Ryan and Andy MacPhail eras, while the shift has been to analytics with Derek Falvey. The team has mostly drafted well, and has mostly traded well. The investments in the leadership and analytics (both through scouting and statistics), as well as training on the farm have led to a sustained ability to contend. This is why the Twins are the Twins and other teams in similar environments, like, say, the Pirates, well, they are the Pirates. 

It's certainly not perfect here in Minnesota, but a road trip like this one, and an assessment of the ownership situation are all decent reminders that things could always be worse. 

Actions have Consequences

 We are in the midst of some pretty heady times here in Minnesota. The Timberwolves are on the Western Conference Finals after convincingly defeating the Golden State Warriors, and the Twins just finished a 13 game winning streak.

But remember, as the Wild and Vikings did with their playoff flameouts, that Minnesota men's sports are cursed. The highest nail is the one that gets the hammer. This was the result of our own hubris. 

Yes, Derick Falvey has produced pitching

Back when Derek Falvey was hired, it was with the promise that he had come from the Cleveland pitching development program, and he would bring that ability and ethos to a Minnesota system that was coming off a year where Tyler Duffey had the third most starts of the season, and the second best pitcher, Kyle Gibson, had an ERA that would slot in behind every starter the Twins have thrown out there this year.

The bullpen, too, was regarded as a strength during season outlooks. That shine was taken off by some rough outings, notably by Griffin Jax and Jorge Alcala, at the beginning of the year, and those two ae still suffering for it with ERAs over 5 and 8 respectively going into today's games. 

All told, the Twins have the 3rd best pitching WAR in baseball, the 5th best ERA and looking at the pen, are #1 in the league in WAR, even with the early scuffles. The pitching staff for the Twins is a strength for the team, and everyone but Jax has been added either via trade, signing or draft since Falvey took the helm of baseball operations. 

There has been more pitching added via trade or signing than Cleveland ever had, and there has been some criticism of the lack of internal development. Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods-Richardson, all members of the rotation did make their major league debuts with the Twins, and the organization has leveraged their prospects, like Chase Petty, to acquire former Twins Sonny Gray. 

But if that isn't enough, the Twins also have Zebby Matthews and David Festa waiting to join the team, and now have Dasan Hill in Baseball-America's Top 100 prospects. Hill was drafted just last year. 

There is pitching here, and there is more on the way. This was the promise of Derek Falvey brought with him, and it is being delivered. Despite all of the headwinds the Twins have faced, this, at least, has remained an area that Falvey and his team have continued to be able to advance.

Fertile ground

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 For those that were curious, Following the Compass is still a thing. I still pick teams and follow them through the year, and if the situation allows, I'll watch a randomly selected game off their calendar. Having a wife and children makes actually going to the games a bit tougher, but this year, back in February, I went to Kansas City to watch North Dakota (my selection for the year) square off against Missouri-Kansas City. 

The game was on Saturday night of Super Bowl weekend, surely not the most top of mind event in KC that weekend, but it was still a weekend contest that was inexpensive and in town. The Roos have a loud and loyal following unlike those I have seen in many of my other adventures, so it was a good atmosphere in the fairly tiny Swinney Center, which has been in use for 84 years. The age gave the game a bit more gravitas.

The building is unassuming, and is housed within the Student Recreation Center, so I had a difficult time figuring out A) where it was and B) where I needed to go to park. I finally found a lot, got distracted, missed a turn, got yelled at by a campus police officer and made it to the game. While neither team had a terrific year, they each had a terrific player. Jamar Brown for the Roos and Treysen Eaglestaff for the Fighting Hawks were the stars. Eaglestaff was a prolific scorer, and Brown was scrappier and more well rounded, but both stood out. UMKC ended up winning 80-69.

Somehow, and against all odds, the Summit League has become an important power player in college basketball. Brown ended the season with UMKC and will be joining UCLA next season. Similar letters, completely different program. Eaglestaff  was going to South Carolina, but changed his mind and is now at West Virginia next season. Regardless of what happened, he needed to end up at a state with a direction in the name. As a point of curiosity, Eaglestaff's brother Teysean is not going anywhere, and is staying... at UMKC.

But the two stars of the game I went to aren't the only Summit League stars making big moves this summer. The Gophers added former Fighting Hawk BJ Omot (via California), while Wisconsin collected Andrew Rohde, formerly a Tommie from St. Thomas. Perhaps most famous was Grant Nelson, who had played for North Dakota State before becoming a vital cog for Alabama the last couple of years. And don't forget the key players from Oral Roberts' Sweet 16 run, Kevin Obanor (Texas Tech) and Max Abmas (Texas).

More lax transfer rules are talked about often, and about how teams need the money for NIL deals, ensuring the best players come to their school, but it doesn't address the fact that the way it works now, the top schools are indeed getting the best players. Instead of churning through blue chip freshmen, college blue bloods can let a player like Jamar Brown mature at a smaller school before coming to UCLA and the bright lights.

A skinny kid from Mankato isn't a likely candidate to get playing time right out of high school, but now here is Omot, in his second power conference. A member of the Cheyenne Sioux Nation doesn't see too many recruiters at his games, but now Eaglestaff is going to play in the Big 12. NIL, and transfer rules have taken the onus of big schools from finding the player that fall through the cracks, or worrying about developmental years and only having to claim nearly finished products, be they players from rural environments, unrefined players who only started because they were tall exchange students, or players that needed to develop a bit more physically.

There is no consistency at schools anymore, but now we can be sure that the best players are going to be playing on the biggest stages. 

The Twins grinded their way back to competence.

 It's pretty easy to be negative about the Twins. Quite easy to be pessimistic. Really, really, really easy. Too easy. For years. Decades. A generation. Too easy to be pessimistic. There is something about this team that leads me to be less so, though.

The last couple of years, the unreasonable optimism I had came from their incredibly poor luck. Year over year, their "clutch" rating looked unsustainable, but somehow the Twins managed to sustain their inability to hit in important situations. This year, that hasn't been the reason for the slow start. They've just been legitimately bad. Don't worry, I'm getting to my reason for a little optimism.

The Twins have started to string together wins, so I think this optimism was indeed warranted, but it looked especially dark in Atlanta. Games were blown, pitching was poor, but they remained in contention through even the games that they were losing. How? 

They were hustling. Runs weren't coming off of the batted ball, but they were coming through advancing runners, heads up baserunning, stolen bases and a general attitude of hard work. Byron Buxton has been the best version of himself this season, stealing bases and scoring runs pretty much whenever he gets on base. As the teams emotional leader, it spread to young players like Luke Keaschall and veterans like Harrison Bader.

It was bound to click eventually. The Twins came back to Minnesota after grinding out their previous home series with the Mets and having a calamitous set in Atlanta to a series opener with the White Sox. They didn't hit great against White Sox pitcher Davis Martin, but smart baserunning and just one home run from Trevor Larnach put them in front. It was a running catch from Buxton that ultimately kept the game in the Twins' hands. Hustle. 

The only game the Twins have lost since was a rain shortened game against the White Sox, just as the Twins were starting to get into the Chicago bullpen. The offense has come alive, buoyed by a persistent effort, even in the face of poor performance. Maybe there will be more stumbles along the way, but and certainly some more cold spells, but at the very least, the Twins are putting up a fight. 

But what does it all mean?

The Twins are, once again, off to a miserable start. They have won one series, on the road against the White Sox, and lost every other one, including a 4 game set against the Royals. Everyone has played poorly, save perhaps for the starting pitching. They have barely hit, and even when the bullpen has struggled, it's truly only cost the team a couple of games. It was time to shake things up, and mercifully, over the weekend, the Twins did just that. 

The Twins sent Jose Miranda down to St. Paul after a base running blunder against the Tigers on Saturday that stood out even on a team that has produced an unseemly number of problematic moments through the first couple of months of the year. It helped ease the decision to demote Miranda that Brooks Lee was ready to come off of the Injured List. Causation vs Correlation, but the Twins won the first game after the swap. 

The Twins have been expressly terrible since about mid-August last year. One can complain about injuries, but then you must also acknowledge that this season, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have played every game, they have had decent starting pitching, even with Pablo Lopez picking up a knock. The malaise has gone on long enough that it can't be written off to sample sizes. There is something deeply wrong with the team.

It goes beyond the product on the field. At the end of the 2023 season, it was clear that the ownership group saw the writing on the wall. They weren't going t get a significant TV deal, despite all the preparation they had done to set themselves up for such an arrangement. They then cut salary, and saw their TV situation get more and more tenuous, including issues with Comcast taking the team off the air for many fans through much of the season.

The real problem was that they announced that they were cutting the salary, and really disrupted the momentum the team had built with their first post season win in more than a decade. Even when the team played well last year attendance was down. Then, the bottom fell out and attendance is even worse this year.

So the on field product has been a mess, and after 15 games of this season, the team has made the first move that was in direct response to poor performance. The cyclical nation of baseball says that the Twins will eventually shake out of their funk, and a third base upgrade will help get us there a little sooner, I imagine. Will it bring fans back? Will it get people to watch? Will the season be worthwhile?

The biggest question of all is: will the Pohlads still find a buyer? The Twins are not a draw right now, and after last season, may not be for a while. If the team can't be marketed to fans, can it be marketed to investors? There appears to be no incoming TV revenue, and the stadium is locked in for another decade, and those are the two biggest revenue generators around. There is always value for buying into the exclusive club of team owners, but perhaps not at the number the Pohlads were hoping for. 

It seems a vicious cycle. The Twins don't get enough support from ownership, and interest wanes. As interest wanes, the revenue for ownership also decreases, and the support  and interest keep feeding back. There was a blip ahead of the team being placed for sale that the owners were convinced to invest, and the on field product and the fan investment increased, but then the regional sports network system collapsed, and so too did the Pohlads commitment, followed swiftly by fan interest. Sometimes the cycle we are stuck in is actually a downward spiral.

But hey, maybe sending Jose Miranda to St. Paul will pull the team out of it. 

Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton and their regular routes to the injured list

The Twins are off to a pretty uninspired start in 2025. They've only won three games, and two of them were against the White Sox, which barely counts. The Twins since August 18th of last year have the second worst record in all of baseball. It would be concerning if it wasn't all so typical of the Twins to come out with an awful start to the season. They've been unlucky, as they always are, and their best players are off to a bad start, as they always are. They will shake out of it, and Twins fans will be wary for the rest of he season. Same as it ever is.

I overheard someone complaining about the Twins and their injury concerns, which is valid, of course, and lamenting that oft injured Royce Lewis is just another reiteration of Byron Buxton, another oft injured Twin. The two couldn't really be further apart, however, and I can tell you that Lewis is far more concerning than Buxton, even in his 30s and knowing what I know about his history. 

In their own ways, Buxton and Lewis evoke the old school and new school ethos in both their positives and their potential pitfalls. Buxton is a pure athlete and lays it all out on the field. It's what so many long time fans, and even new ones desire to see. Visible, tangible effort. Lewis is strong. His natural athleticism has been augmented by time in the gym and his development of raw power that was evident in his first ride in the postseason, and seems to crop up most evidently when bases are loaded. 

Of course, the flip side of this has come up far too often. Buxton's aggression has led to him into walls and awkward dives, which has led to broken bones, deep bruises and swelling. Lewis, alternatively, has seen his muscle development lead directly to pulled muscles and strains. Of course, he has had some catastrophic knee injuries, but those haven't been the issue as he's reached the Majors. It's been hamstrings and lat strains and generally things that I don't have to deal with because I don't have muscles. 

Buxton isn't inherently prone to injury because of his bodily structure, and there is a chance that he could remain healthy with good circumstances and a more calibrated approach in the field. He keeps getting hurt because he's playing as hard as we all want our athletes to play, and also because Minnesota is cursed. 

Lewis is like modern day pitchers. We've developed pitching techniques, strength building and performance to a level that is beyond what ligaments can sustain. Pitchers are stronger and throwing harder, and it is tearing apart UCLs across all levels of baseball. Royce Lewis is a product of the evolution of baseball and professional athleticism. He works hard, has developed a size and strength that unfortunately, tests his muscles and tendons every time he exerts himself. 

We can see Buxton plow into the center field fence and know problems have arisen. Lewis has a tendency to pull up after rounding a base because something has grabbed or feels uncomfortable. This is much harder to plan around or feel good about long term. Buxton, on the other hand, may prove to be less injury prone as he grows older. 

Whatever the case, the Twins need them (and Carlos Correa) to stay on the field if they want to be successful. Oh, and they need to actually produce when they are on the field. That would be nice as well.

Don't think this is going to be a regular occurrence, but....

 Link Dump! I know I dropped one of these a couple of weeks ago, but this is just a much easier way to touch on all of the news that is happening in the sports world. Such as.....

The NCAA Transfer Portal is alive and well, even as the tournament is ongoing. Who are the top players? Glad you asked.  - SB Nation

The Timberwolves have finally been sold, freeing up Glen Taylor to buy the Twins (That last part was my speculation, not the PiPress) - Pioneer Press

Speaking of the Timberwolves, heck of a game last night - CBS Sports

The crazy thing about NFL Mock Drafts this year is how consistent they have been in putting Tyler Warren to the Colts at 14 and Nick Emmanwori to the Vikings at 24. Those are late picks to be that consistent. - Sporting News 

The Women's NCAA Final Four is going to be just as good as the Men's and just as good as last year's. - USA Today

The Loons look good this season! - MLS

The only torpedo bat story I care about is how the Twins bats are torpedoing their season so far. - Star Tribune

And you have now all been linked. Congrats! 

It's good to be a Commanders fan

Not only is it the most cost effective way to build a team, but it is also, undoubtedly, the most fun. If you are making a winning football team, a good way to save money is to have an excellent rookie-contract quarterback. It's also a lot of fun to use the extra resources to build around him.

Is there anyone having more fun than the Washington Commanders? Jayden Daniels followed CJ Stroud's lead and as the second QB drafted, emerged as better than the top pick in their rookie season. Houston had an excellent defense that needed preservation, but the Commanders are just adding, even from the Texans.

Daniels led the resurgent Commanders to the NFC Championship Game as a rookie, which is a promising floor, and the offseason has been all gas and no brakes. How great would it be to the team that is aggressively seeking talent, and knowing they are adding to a good roster, and not just patching holes? They could burn draft capital on Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil, while signing Javon Kinlaw and having the resources to retain the free agents they wanted to.

Eventually, Daniels is going to be very expensive, and more or less, Washington is going to know what they have as a core. They will be good for as long as Daniels is effective, but the era of unbound potential, an unabashedly fun time will be behind them. In the meantime, fans are going to be a little more forgiving. If things go sideways in 2025, they know that the future remains bright. If they go well, all the better.

The Commanders have shown with their moves thus far that they won't let the moment pass them by. It's one thing to catch lightning in a bottle, and another to allow that lightning to properly electrify the team. After so long in the NFL wilderness, how fun is it for Washington fans to be on the brink of greatness?

The Wild are the Twins on ice

Have you heard about the team in Minnesota that hasn't made it to their league's championship series since the early 2000s? Well, maybe you have heard that they had a very good start to the season this year, but, owing in large part to injuries (but perhaps also to a less than active trade deadline), they are cratering as the season winds to a close.

No, not that team.

The team who is having some payroll constraints as they try to build around a young core? You know the team with the electric young talent who was injured, along with the career long player at center in a Minnesota uniform that also keeps getting injured?

No, no, not that team.

I'm talking about the team with the home town kid that wears #7, and will probably wear too much of the burden if things don't go Minnesota's way while he is in town, even though the real problem is the organization and the fact that the town has been cursed since 1991? 

The Wild and the Twins share so much in common. Even as the season draws near a close for the Wild, and it is soon to begin for the Twins, it appears as though their paths may diverge. The cap in the NHL will go up, coinciding with Ryan Suter and Zach Parise's deals coming off the books. In theory, the Wild will be bigger spenders, and their core will get the support it deserves from the free agent market. 

That said, we also heard about the Twins TV rights being out for bid, and look how that turned out. And that the team was on the verge of being sold, and look how that turned out. Hopefully this is where the Wild diverge course from the Twins, but I'll believe it when I see it. 

Have some Links

 It's hard to believe that I used to not only have a post a day, but also posted links and scores. I miss that kind of free time, but man, I'm sure glad I'm not wading into the depths of the internet for good posts any longer. Gross. But let's see what we've got today.

It's the opener of NFL free agency, and wouldn't you know it, the Vikings are in the mix for a former Packer/Jet QB. - Fox Sports

Bubble tracking sounds like it should be very relaxing. It isn't! - USA Today

Hockey hair! - BringMN

We all love things being graded so we can argue about it later. - Yahoo!

The Gophers were knocked out of the Big Ten tournament before it was on real TV - Star Tribune

I did not know that this was something that could effect aerodynamics. - SB Nation        

OK, that's enough. Good night!

No deal!

 

Over the years, I have grown accustomed to the Twins not being able to seal deals. Trades, free agents, anything. If there are reports, there is an initial buzz of anticipation, followed by a long trickle of disappointment as it becomes clear that the rumored move is definitely not happening any longer. So why should it be any different when the team itself is on the block?

News broke over the weekend that the Ishbias, the only known interested parties in the Twins, have instead increased an investment in the Chicago White Sox, and are no longer pursuing the Twins. There is a wailing and gnashing of teeth in Twins Territory, and some are speculating that the Pohlads may pull the team off the market. 

I see that as a bit of an overreach, based on previous reporting, that there was a significant level of interest, more than anticipated, when the team was first announced to be on the market. I have to believe also that the typically coy Pohlads wouldn't have made such an announcement if they didn't know they already had suitors. I can't imagine that the Ishbias were or are the only ones in play, nor that they backed off because the Pohlads were having a change of heart.

There was a rumor early in the process that Glen Taylor might be interested in the team if he ended up losing the Timberwolves in arbitration. And he did! But that is just one of the scenarios related to the potential ownership of the team, and we don't know how many suitors remain, or if more step up with the announcement that the Ishbias are out. 

Even if the Pohlads are planning on keeping the team, they still went along with the plan for payroll to climb, if incrementally this winter. Regardless of whatever happens in the next couple of months, if the Twins are still in the Pohlads hands or not, it's not as dark a time in Twins Territory as this time last year.

The story isn't done being told quite yet, and the ending still has a good chance of being happy

Got their number

 

We all know the players that we love to hate. It's because they always seem to have an extra bit of success when they face the Twins. I'm looking at you, Salvador Perez. We don't recognize it, but other teams have Twins that are their bugaboo as well. I thought, as we get ready to kick off spring training, we should look at the Twins projected opening day roster and see whose number our players have. These will be based on teams they have at least 10 games against, though I will make some notes if there are worthwhile exceptions. 

UTIL, Willi Castro - Milwaukee Brewers. Willi's OPS against our next door neighbors is 85% higher than his career OPS (this is called his tOPS, and will be our measure for all players). His average against the Brewers is a whopping .390. If I didn't qualify teams, though, Castro would show that 7 of his top 8 victims are NL teams. Get him in those inter-league games! The exception is the Angels, who Willi has a habit of hitting home runs against.

C, Ryan Jeffers - Texas Rangers. Do you remember when Jeffers got into a dust up with the Rangers in 2023? It turns out he might be more in their head than originally thought. A 213 tOPS based off of a 1.176 OPS in 14 games will do that.

1b, Ty France - Kansas City Royals. New first baseman Ty France may have been signed specifically because of the way he has feasted on the Royals. His tOPS is 202, which is because he's hitting .406 with 5 home runs. Other victims of the new Twin are the Astros and Rangers. Could have used that a couple years ago.

2b, Brooks Lee - Houston Astros. Lee doesn't have more than a handful of games against anyone, but against the Astros, he hit .462 with a double and a homerun.

SS, Carlos Correa - Colorado Rockies. It's wild that Correa has played enough games against the Rockies for this to be a consideration, but rightfully, he has always battered them, with a .412 average. His favorite AL victim? The Twins. 

3b, Royce Lewis - The Athletics. Lewis has hit 4 home runs against the A's, second only to the 5 he hit against the Guardians. He did it in half as many games, though, to the tune of a 170 tOPS

LF, Trevor Larnach - Kansas City Royals. Larnach is not only good against the Royals, but he's also played against them more than other team, save the White Sox. His tOPS is 151 against Kansas City, boosted by a keen eye at the plate and a .419 OBP.

CF, Byron Buxton - Chicago White Sox. Buxton has a pretty level numbers for his opponents, so the top tOPS is a 141 against the Sox. Reliable, though, against a division rival, and driven by the fact that he has hit 16% of his career home runs against the Southsiders.

RF, Matt Wallner - Chicago White Sox. Wallner, like Lee doesn't have many opponents he has faced a lot, but his 146 tOPS against Chicago is buoyed by an uncharacteristic .339 average. Also, unlike every other guy so far, his numbers are actually better against teams with winning records.

IF, Edouard Julien - Seattle Mariners. Julien's numbers against the Mariners feature a 195 tOPS, but the real story is that if you don't qualify his opponents, 6 of his top 7 are out west. Maybe likes being up late?

IF, Jose Miranda - Toronto Blue Jays. Miranda's 1.034 OPS against the Blue Jays is driven by a high proportion of extra base hits to hits (6/14). Also noteworthy is that Miranda is one of few players that level up against the Tigers.

OF, Harrison Bader - Texas Rangers. Bader played 11 games against the Rangers, which cumulated to a .343 average with 5 doubles. His most difficult times were against several other AL teams... including the Twins.

C, Christian Vazquez - Philadelphia Phillies. Honestly, there was no reason that Vazquez was listed last, just that he is a bench player, but his performances against the Phillies have been otherworldly.  OBP of .508 means that in his 19 games, he got on base more than half the time. 19 games is quite a few! His tOPS against Philadelphia is 266! He also plays better against the AL Central across the board, except the Royals, against whom he is abysmal.

The Twins look well primed to face their divisional foes, interleague play and for west coast swings this season. They've got their number.

Coaching when it counts

There has been a through line on the Derek Falvey tenure, and it has been an investment in their pitching staff. Not necessarily in the players, of course, but to an environment engineered to get the most out of the arms they have. They have made a point to roster excellent receivers. They jumped on Jason Castro right away during Falvey's first offseason in charge. More recently, to outsiders Christian Vasquez looked like an obvious trade candidate, but the Twins held on to him, in no small part because the front office still values him as a benefit to the pitching staff, as a compliment to Ryan Jeffers.

The other lift has been via excellent coaching hires. It started with pitching coach Wes Johnson, and has been reflected through Pete Maki, as the major league rotation and bullpen have rounded back into form. Johnson's contribution was felt acutely in his departure. The Twins staff fell apart when he left abruptly in 2022 to take the same role at LSU (he is now the manager at Georgia), but have reconstituted under Maki.

The Falvey era was supposed to emphasize the pitching pipeline, and through scouting, analytics and importantly, minor league coaching, that emphasis has born fruit. Bailey Ober, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands and many with less time in the organization have blossomed thanks to the environment in the Twins organization. The Twins have developed an incubator for pitchers, and the coaches have played a big role in that, both in development and maintenance. 

Back when Johnson was hired, the Twins seemed like they just had a knack for coaching hires. Former hitting coach James Rowson steered the offense to an historic output before taking a new job in Miami. Since Rowson left, the Twins offense is best described as inconsistent. David Popkins couldn't elevate the offense in the same way Rowson got the most out of his players, or Maki is still getting results from the pitchers. 

Popkins was let go at the end of the year, and replaced him with Matt Borgschulte, who comes in with more experience than Popkins. The Twins hope that translates to the same kind of magic that Johnson, Rowson and Maki have manufactured. Since taking the reins, Falvey has shown a sharp eye for impactful coaching hires—so perhaps Borgschulte should be considered the team’s most significant addition of the offseason.

Rationally irrational

After a long dark offseason, we are hitting the early part of spring training. Pitchers and catchers are reporting, and projection systems are doing what they do best. Projecting. Most predictions that have been released to date have a surprise in store for Twins fans: The Twins are the favorite to win the American League Central.

The entire offseason narrative was built around a vague statement Derek Falvey made about the payroll remaining level entering 2025. This was taken to mean the Twins would have to trim a little bit of payroll to add much of anything, and a lot of the focus was placed on Chris Paddack and Christian Vazquez as potential departees. The calculus recently changed, trades were not made, and suddenly, the Twins have added three players to the major league roster in Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe and Ty France. 

But here's the thing about a lot of those projections: they came out before the Twins' latest splashes in free agency. The Twins were viewed as likely to be better than their competition in 2025, even by maintaining the roster they had in 2024. 

The Twins have elite talent on their roster. The rotation has three very good starters in Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober and good, developing depth behind those three. They have a strong bullpen, led by Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax and Cole Sands. They have good, professional hitters, including Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis, as well as legitimate talent at multiple other spots in the field. Based on the players they have, the Twins are a very strong team.

Even after all that news, even after all the kinds words from me, most Twins fans, myself included, know that there is something missing from the computer projections. These projections don't perfectly capture the Twins likely hundreds of man-games lost to injury this season. Sure, they do all right acknowledging Byron Buxton's inevitable third of a season on the shelf. But do they also note that young players may launch extremely poorly, or the big time injury to someone like, say, Joe Ryan (as in 2024) that could completely deep six the season? 

We fans acknowledge the team's historic misfortune. Numbers can say one thing, and even if they are coldly rational, we can't help but view them as overly optimistic. Something will probably go wrong, because something always goes wrong. Why would this year be any different?

The Athletic released their first team rankings of the season, and picked the Twins as the 4th best team in AL Central. Don't these prognosticators give the Twins any respect? 

The same as before

 The Twins have followed a pretty steady pattern of offseason moves for the last few years, and I'm not just talking about their tendency to wait until the tail end of the offseason to act, essentially every year since Derek Falvey moved into the executive suite. For the last few years, the Twins have, in the late stages of the offseason, sought to add just a little bit more to the bullpen, outfield and infield depth.

This season, despite rumors of concerns over payroll that was made louder by concerned fans that it probably needed to be, the Twins have started their shuffle into Spring Training. It's the same course of action that the team took in the past, broadly, but it comes as a bit of a surprise, given all the other things surrounding the team this year. 

In the late winter of 2025, there is a bit of a surprise that none of the moves have come via trade, as payroll seemed to be such a concern. Instead, in the last week the team has, via free agency, signed old friend, pitcher Danny Coulombe, and new face, outfielder Harrison Bader. The word is out there that the team is also looking at another option for depth on the infield, such as Paul DeJong or Luis Urias as well. The trifecta of late offseason Twins maneuvers. 

It suggests a few things. On the obvious financial side, it either means that the payroll limitations were perhaps not as hard and fast as we believed. Perhaps it also means that the Twins are very confident that a trade is very close to happening. I can't imagine that this late in the offseason there is a market for the Twins to reduce payroll while at the same not sharply affecting their future. 

Don't make the team a lesser product right before you sell it. That's been a pretty regular chorus here at the Rhino and Compass all winter. 

The other suggestions are more on the field things. The first is that the Twins were intentional about finding a fielder that could roam the outfield moreso than looking for the right handed bat. Yes, Bader is a righty,  and he is a bit better against lefties, but not THAT much better. In fact, he was markedly worse in 2024. Bader is an elite fielder, however, and is better viewed as Byron Buxton's backup than a platoon option.

Also, it looks like the Twins are going to rely on Jose Miranda, predominantly, to handle first base. Tasked with the role two years ago, he was laughably poor in the field, but if the Twins feel good enough about him being their option, I have no choice but to assume that he'll be better on defense. If the Twins are looking at adding a middle infielder like DeJong or Urias to the mix, that could push Edouard Julien over to first as well, especially if Royce Lewis ultimately takes over at 2nd. 

The Twins in 2025 waited again, nibbled again, and ultimately are going to end up with the three types of players they are always looking for. Maybe it's this type of consistency that helps them be the pick to with the AL Central this season. 

Let's not burn down large cities for good concerts

Last night's marathon concert to benefit fire victims in the LA area featured something for everyone, except for country fans. (No shade given, country stars have been showing up in disaster zones in the Southeast all year). I like big events like this, where genres and eras can come together. Even if you aren't a fan of say, Billie Eilish or Green Day, It's still really cool that this happened.

Next time, let's keep the collaborations to the Grammy's and not wait for regional catastrophes.

Skeleton Crew, the show that could have been anywhere

The world is nuts right now. It's probably always been nuts, but now it's all on TV, everyone knows it's nuts, and everything keeps happening faster and faster. Somehow, in the 50 years since Star Wars first came out, we've moved into a spot where, instead of a lark, looking at a technologically advanced world of adventure, it is, at it's best, a quiet return to a simpler time. To wit, Skeleton Crew was tremendous. 

The sequel trilogy really struggled, particularly in the final installment, and part of the issue was that it continued to try to consume the entire galaxy in it's breadth. It took every thing from the Star Wars universe and just threw it into the same pot. The Last Jedi was disparaged by some, but a thing I appreciated about it was the bid to make Star Wars more tactile again, and make the movie smaller in scope. It wasn't perfect, but it set something up that could have been much better. 

It seems as though Lucasfilm is figuring out something I have thought for a while. We don't necessarily need fan service at every offering, but simply good stories that live in the universe. It's such a sandbox to work with, and feeling a need to return to Palpatine and the Skywalkers at every turn only drags things down.

The Mandalorian worked because they featured new characters as leads. Personalities and arcs could go anywhere, and need only graze the existing canon. The Book of Boba Fett was disappointing in many ways, but a big cause was bringing a galactically important character with an already remarkable backstory AND following, and tried to shoehorn a story around that.

Recent disappointment and burnout drove poor viewership to The Acolyte, but it wasn't a bad show. It was a moody character driven mystery that sort of typified where Star Wars is at. It felt more akin to Andor and Skeleton Crew than to the core films. It was a decent show that had the trappings of Star Wars, but didn't need to be trapped in them. Andor and Skeleton Crew took this mindset and executed it even better.

Andor is a gritty war series that demystifies the idea of war, and brought the origins of a rebellion to a grass roots level. The fact that Cassian Andor was in Rogue One was incidental. It felt like the major plot points and internal motivations could have come from our timeline, or at least they seemed recognizable and real. 

Skeleton Crew was basically a kids adventure that was well written enough that grown ups got into it as well. There was almost no correlation to the extended Star Wars universe, except to provide the setting, rather than fixed plot destinations, and the show itself felt more like Goonies in space than another typical Star Wars offering. 

And that's where the Lucasfilm offerings have excelled. It excels when Andor's renegade is allowed to be a renegade, and the kids in Skeleton Crew are allowed to be kids, and heck, Luke Skywalker in a New Hope was a bored teen, and was allowed to be a bored teen, and all of whom happen to be in a galaxy far, far away. Star Wars is best when it is not making itself a character. 

The big move: Diego Cartaya

 According to the Athletic, the Twins sale may be completed by opening day. That is certainly an accelerated timeline as compared to other team sales both in baseball, and other sports in this market. To say the news is a shock is quite the understatement. 

It also renders all of the "reduced payroll" talk irrelevant. What do the Pohlads care what the season's payroll is if they aren't going to own the team? This seems even more on point than it did a couple weeks when I first made the point. The Pohlads now have no financial incentive to do anything for the Twins, either spending or saving.

So the next question would then go to the future owner of the team for payroll questions. Unfortunately, by the sound of it, there are multiple suitors, and the market is robust. The front office has absolutely no guidance on finances. And they might not until opening day.

So in this fog of war, the first 10 days of January may be the high water mark for the team's offseason. The arbitration process was settled for all players, and the Twins made a pretty decent trade given the limitations they face. If you are the headline skipping type, let me tell you: the Twins acquired catching prospect Diego Cartaya from the Dodgers for a low level pitching prospect.

Cartaya was a top 50 prospect as recently as two years ago, but was pushed out of LA's plans because of the talent on the roster but also because Cartaya wasn't hitting at the Double A level. Still all accounts seem to suggest that there is no issue with his glove behind the plate. The Twins have an offense forward catcher in Ryan Jeffers already, and one way or another, Christian Vazquez's time with the team is limited. There is a path for Cartaya and the Twins as soon as next year.

It's a good move for the Twins and new GM Jeremy Zoll. It will shore up the roster without affecting the team finances too substantially as a sale approaches. With everything coming to a head in a few short weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the last we hear from Zoll, or the MLB Trade Rumors app for the rest of the offseason. 

It's not an unexpectedly quiet offseason, though perhaps it isn't as terrible as we though. And really, it's not that much worse than the Terry Ryan years. 

I still don't believe it

 The Pohlads continue to cry poor as their ownership of the Twins nears it's conclusion. As we all know, the Pohlads are extremely wealthy, but they treat the Twins as a revenue source instead of a baseball team, and are guided by that philosophy. The small market, smallish stadium Twins are low on revenue compared to other teams, which, for a revenue minded group, might as well label the team as poor. 

But the Pohlads are selling, and will be flush with cash as soon as the team is off their hands. Everything is a business for that family, and right now, the product most on our minds is the team itself, and not how it produces on the field. There was a statement early in the offseason that the payroll would stay about the same as it was in 2024. Through arbitration and contractual acceleration, the payroll was already over what it was last year, and the interpretation was that the Twins would be cutting some players off the roster, looking for takers for Chris Paddack, Willi Castro and/or Cristian Vazquez. 

That was before news of the team being for sale, with an initial valuation suspected to be at about 1.7 billion dollars. I've already speculated that a potential buyer might not appreciate the team getting rid of players before the team was sold, and frankly, the thought of that might give the Pohlads pause before going through with such trades. They would certainly sacrifice an extra $15m if it meant securing the $1.7b sale. You would pay $15 if it meant getting $1,700, right?

But I've made that case already, and I want to make a different one. If the Twins were really looking to offload one of the contracts I mentioned, other squads would be clamoring for the affordable prices, given the large contracts being awarded this offseason. 7 million for a #5 starter? That's less than Patrick Sandoval is getting from the Red Sox, and Paddack has historically been better than Sandoval. If there was a deal to be made, and the Twins were ready to deal, I'm sure an offer is already out there. 

I think the reality of the situation is that even if the Twins were able to jettison some contracts, there isn't a good way to affordably backfill those spots. Trading away larger contracts is even more problematic, both for the baseball minds, but also the business minds hoping the Twins remain attractive. I think it's less likely today that the Twins are going to scale back their payroll this offseason than it was at the beginning of the offseason.

None of this means, of course, that the Twins are going to be expanding the payroll. Oh no, no, no. While the Pohlads are still controlling the purse strings, it's unlikely that the organization will have any interest in substantial payroll additions, even if they might be warranted, particularly with a right handed bat, or a steady first baseman. Instead, look for more nibbles at minor league free agents, like Mike Ford, who was signed earlier this week, and my end up playing some first for the Twins. 

It's not exciting, but it's also a bit less depressing. I just don't see the Twins doing much of anything for the rest of the winter.