More than a decade ago when Steve Pallotto and I put together a series called "Blowing up college football". The premise was that people wanted a college football playoff, with teams then winning the championship based on actual games played on the field. Steve and I noticed that even when the BCS playoffs used a formula to pick the top 4 teams, the initial polls in the season carried a lot of weight. It wasn't actually fully won on the field. In hindsight, we have seen Central Florida go undefeated and still not be given a chance at the title, and Cincinnati, undefeated, is still not in position for the playoffs, because they play in the wrong conferences.
Of course, now, the imperative has changed thanks to the dawning of the super conference. People, especially in the southeast, are irritated that people would even think that a 2 loss Alabama would miss the playoff to an undefeated Cincinnati. "Why not put the 4 best teams in the playoff?" they say. So much for letting it play out on the field.
Well, to me, solving it on the field still matters, and I think all those years ago, we figured out how to do that. To summarize, we broke everything up into geographically apportioned conferences, and every team played each other once. Out of conference games are played in order to help determine the strength of conferences and providing seeding for teams when the playoffs arrive. When I say things are determined on the field, I mean it. Everything we can think of, if we could solve it on the field, we would.
I didn't touch on the 2019 simulated season, (Joe Burrow's LSU beat Georgia in the championship, with Oklahoma and USC reaching the semifinals) but I figured since 2020 was a wash, it would be cathartic to review the 2020 simulated season.
Unless you are a Gophers fan. Their lackluster season was reflected in the simulation (done on Whatifsports), where the team went 1-11, and surely would not have earned PJ Fleck an extension. Conversely, Purdue win the Great Lakes conference (over every Indiana school but the Indiana University, and all the Michigan schools) perhaps fortelling their success in 2021. The Boilermakers were the 10 seed in the tournament and were felled by Florida.
Florida eventually made the semifinals as well, joining Clemson, Brigham Young and Alabama. It was a banner year for Group of 5 schools, as Memphis, San Diego State, Louisiana, Air Force, Brigham Young, Marshall and Buffalo all reached the tournament. Alabama and Florida were the only two SEC schools, which is the same number of schools as the Mountain West. The Big Ten was the leader with 4 teams (Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana and Rutgers, which is not a ringing endorsement for football in the mid-Atlantic).
Of course, none of the Big Ten teams made it out of the 2nd round, and the only time an SEC team lost, it was to another SEC team. Alabama won the entire thing, defeating Brigham Young for the title. The final 4 featured three quarterbacks that were drafted high into the NFL in Trevor Lawrence, Zack Wilson and Mac Jones, and I think that is a decent reflection of the state of the world American football right now. Quarterbacks are very important.
For 2021, the question of Cincinnati's inclusion in a potential playoff will be much more simple to navigate. They just need to win their conference, and they can figure it out on the field, and not rely on anyone's opinions.
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