Who would have won a full season of 2020 college football?

 More than a decade ago when Steve Pallotto and I put together a series called "Blowing up college football". The premise was that people wanted a college football playoff, with teams then winning the championship based on actual games played on the field. Steve and I noticed that even when the BCS playoffs used a formula to pick the top 4 teams, the initial polls in the season carried a lot of weight. It wasn't actually fully won on the field. In hindsight, we have seen Central Florida go undefeated and still not be given a chance at the title, and Cincinnati, undefeated, is still not in position for the playoffs, because they play in the wrong conferences.

Of course, now, the imperative has changed thanks to the dawning of the super conference. People, especially in the southeast, are irritated that people would even think that a 2 loss Alabama would miss the playoff to an undefeated Cincinnati. "Why not put the 4 best teams in the playoff?" they say. So much for letting it play out on the field. 

Well, to me, solving it on the field still matters, and I think all those years ago, we figured out how to do that. To summarize, we broke everything up into geographically apportioned conferences, and every team played each other once. Out of conference games are played in order to help determine the strength of conferences and providing seeding for teams when the playoffs arrive. When I say things are determined on the field, I mean it. Everything we can think of, if we could solve it on the field, we would. 

I didn't touch on the 2019 simulated season, (Joe Burrow's LSU beat Georgia in the championship, with Oklahoma and USC reaching the semifinals) but I figured since 2020 was a wash, it would be cathartic to review the 2020 simulated season. 

Unless you are a Gophers fan. Their lackluster season was reflected in the simulation (done on Whatifsports), where the team went 1-11, and surely would not have earned PJ Fleck an extension. Conversely, Purdue win the Great Lakes conference (over every Indiana school but the Indiana University, and all the Michigan schools) perhaps fortelling their success in 2021. The Boilermakers were the 10 seed in the tournament and were felled by Florida. 

Florida eventually made the semifinals as well, joining Clemson, Brigham Young and Alabama. It was a banner year for Group of 5 schools, as Memphis, San Diego State, Louisiana, Air Force, Brigham Young, Marshall and Buffalo all reached the tournament. Alabama and Florida were the only two SEC schools, which is the same number of schools as the Mountain West. The Big Ten was the leader with 4 teams (Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana and Rutgers, which is not a ringing endorsement for football in the mid-Atlantic). 

Of course, none of the Big Ten teams made it out of the 2nd round, and the only time an SEC team lost, it was to another SEC team. Alabama won the entire thing, defeating Brigham Young for the title. The final 4 featured three quarterbacks that were drafted high into the NFL in Trevor Lawrence, Zack Wilson and Mac Jones, and I think that is a decent reflection of the state of the world American football right now. Quarterbacks are very important.

For 2021, the question of Cincinnati's inclusion in a potential playoff will be much more simple to navigate. They just need to win their conference, and they can figure it out on the field, and not rely on anyone's opinions. 

Crowning a 2016 champion - The Rhino and Compass college football simulation

Back in the headier, more earnest days of my blogging career, back when I was still working with Steve Pallotto on a more regular basis, we sought out to change college football. There was one major flaw, as we saw it, with how the game crowned a champion. 1) Preseason polls and opinion had way too much to do with who was ultimately granted a chance to compete for the national title. So how do you eradicate opinion and rely solely on performance? Ensure that only conference champions make a post season tournament, and seed those teams based on record and the strength of their conference. 

So we made 12 conference, later upped to 16, thanks to a change in NCAA membership, with conferences based on geography, and set non conference schedules (to determine those conference strength metrics) based on a team's record the prior year, not unlike the NFL. Conference champions were measured only on their in-conference schedule.

I couldn't find recaps from last year, so that's probably good news for you, but as we get going into the 2017 session, I do have a look at who won the 2016 Rhino and Compass football simulation. Rather than boiling down the conferences, team by team, (you can ask for details if you want them later, you weirdos) why don't I instead just run through the champions and the post season tournament? Oh, all right, here are two teams I will mention: Minnesota finished 6-6 (4-3 in conference) in the Midwest, and finished 5th, while Purdue went 5-7 (1-6) in the Great Lakes. OK, here are the champs, with their post season ranking.
1. Oklahoma
2. LSU

3. Miami (FL)

4. Western Michigan

5. Utah

6. USC

7. North Carolina

8. Western Kentucky

9. Pittsburgh

10. Georgia

11. Mississippi

12. Ohio State.

13. Oregon

14. Wisconsin

15. Colorado State

16. Temple

First off, there were some obvious surprises out of this list, particularly when compared to the actual results of the season. Alabama was bumped by Mississippi, Florida State couldn't overtake Miami, Penn State was beaten by Pitt, Clemson was unable to challenge Georgia, Oregon topped Washington and Colorado State succeeded over Colorado. 

Within our closed system, though, things went mostly according to seed in the first round of the playoffs. There was one upset, #15 Colorado State eliminating LSU in the first round, but otherwise, all the lower seeds won. 

The same could be said for the quarterfinals. Western Michigan took three OTs to top Utah in the best game of the set, while Oklahoma only narrowly defeated Western Kentucky. North Carolina and Miami (FL) had easier times with their opponents.

Western Michigan made it to the Cotton Bowl in real life last year, losing in a better game than had been expected to the Wisconsin Badgers. Miami went to the Russell Athletic Bowl, defeating West Virginia when they got there. In our simulation, they both made it to the National Championship game, Western by defeating Oklahoma rather handily, and Miami requiring double OT to dispatch North Carolina.

In the end, it was the Miami Hurricanes who took down Western Michigan for the national title (Rhino and Compass style, at any rate), collecting a 44-20 victory. For the record, Miami also defeated Wisconsin in the playoffs, way back in the first round of our tournament. Can they repeat in 2017? Find out in a few months.