Friday, February 9, 2024

Payroll is not the problem



 The Twins recently locked up their TV deal for the next year with Diamond Sports Group, which coincided with their flurry of recent transaction activity. The Twins with their maneuvering bolstered their bullpen and sorted out their infield depth. What else could you want? For some people, you might simply want the Twins to spend more money.

Recently, Aaron Gleeman noted that the payrolls of the American League Central are all in the bottom third of the league, with the White Sox, of all teams, leading the way. This has lead to wailing and gnashing of teeth, because despite what I said recently, the Twins are "too cheap", and it's "embarrassing" that the payroll isn't higher, according to some local fans and commentators. 

I've heard this opinion quite a bit from the Power Trip Morning show, in particular. As tastemakers in the market, they can certainly drive some of the conversation, and will likely make an easy scapegoat if things don't go well to start the season for a lot of fans, but despite this late offseason lament, there aren't many feasible means to simply increase the payroll, outside of one.

If they start giving raises and extensions to their otherwise cost controlled players, they would have more money locked into players expected to start and excel, like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, Ryan Jeffers and Edouard Julien. Beyond that, Joe Ryan, Baily Ober and Jhoan Duran are quality major leaguers that will produce more value than their salary suggests. More than half of the regular lineup, at least 2 starting pitchers and the closer are still on rookie deals. Would you replace any of them with players that are still out there in free agency?

Yes, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery would be rotation upgrades, absolutely, no question. But they would also command deals that would take them into their mid to late 30s, and more than likely become a sunk cost at some point in the deal. Pitchers are a scarier prospect for this than any other position, and the Twins, even in the best of times, aren't going to bid in the top of the market for a free agent pitcher.

The Twins don't need an extra starter to win the AL Central this year. If the offense clicks like it should have last year, it will make up for the loss of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, especially if Chris Paddack stays healthy in the rotation this year. The Twins will have the capacity to acquire a pitcher on a shorter deal, for less money, thanks to prospect depth and stable finances as the playoff push approaches, and the Twins need them.

This would be a bigger deal, the payroll shortfall, if the AL Central wasn't so winnable, and the holes were significantly larger and with an easy fix that could be made with more salary. I don't think the Twins are done adding this offseason. I won't believe that until opening day, but it will just be moves that nibble at the edges, and the Twins are probably done taking big swings. The payroll won't go up much more than where it is at. At least for now. 

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