I understand how sentiment has come to the spot it is in. I've made it clear that I think the poor business skills of the Pohlads has led the offseason not proceeding the way anyone wanted it to. That said, given the current roster, and despite a pretty awful spring, I think the Twins and fans do have reason to hope in 2026. I say this knowing, again, that the more hope we have, the swifter the kick to the nuts comes from Fate.
Functionally, how is the Twins team different in 2026 from the one in 2025? Obviously, the bullpen was obliterated. Carlos Correa isn't there, and Pablo Lopez will miss the season. "Carlos Correa isn't there" is a statement you could have said at many points during the last couple of years as well. He was either hurt or a shadow of himself. Pablo Lopez also missed a great deal of the past couple of seasons. This year, the Twins will be able to plan around it. A good bullpen is a luxury that good teams have. If we are talking about the bullpen this season, that is a reflection on how well things are going elsewhere.
The Twins problem last year was an inability to score runs. They couldn't put together good at bats consecutively. This is a problem known as poor sequencing, and most statisticians will tell you that this is something that will work itself out with enough samples. It hasn't for most of the last decade. The Twins are significantly worse at the plate in late and close situations, or with runners in scoring position. I'm all for dingers, and I don't mind the three true outcome players, however the Twins haven't been getting two of the outcomes, and striking out too often when it matters. One way to ward that scenario off is adding more complete hitters to the lineup.
And they did. The Twins will have Josh Bell and Victor Caratini taking regular at bats, and we should see a full season of Luke Keaschall and Austin Martin. The Twins have been boring on offense, and Jhoan Duran's entrance was even more exciting, because it meant the Twins actually scored some runs in that game.
There is also the prospect of full seasons of Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Brooks Lee, all former top prospects who have seen their shine come off. Part of it is injuries, part of it is pitchers adapting to their abilities. All three still have natural talents, and none are older than 28 - the year that Michael Cuddyer finally broke out. With the pedigree those three have, and a chance to make their mark, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss all three players. The projections have always overestimated their production. Why can't they, for once, underestimate it?
And if they don't, Walker Jenkins, Emmannuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Kaelen Culpepper and Alan Roden are waiting in the wings.
Those are all hopeful thoughts that I don't believe are outlandish. But let's talk about a couple things that are firmer truths. First, the rotation, even without Pablo Lopez is just fine. Joe Ryan is good. Bailey Ober is healthy, and before last year, you could say that Ober and Ryan were on par. If Ober is healthy, in the AL Central he is a good #2 pitcher. I'm not sure what else Simeon Woods-Richardson needs to do to get taken off the wishy-washy is he/is he not in the rotation. Lopez getting hurt seemed to have done it this year, however two years pitching to an ERA just a skosh above 4.00 is a perfectly reliable mid to back of the rotation pitcher. He has been good for over 20 starts a year for the last two years. Just pencil him in.
The Twins have a bumper crop of pitching prospects. Mick Abel, Andrew Morris, Connor Prielipp and Kendry Rojas are the top names that won't make the roster. Taj Bradley and Zebby Matthews will make the roster. Their numbers haven't been as good as SWRs, but their metrics are better than the actual numbers. That's not a bad rotation. It's at least middle of the pack for Twins rotations this century.
Most importantly, the Twins play in the AL Central. The Tigers are the top dog in the division, but the rest of the division is surmountable. That means that if things go a bit awry for the Tigers, it could be anyone. Even the Twins, with their modest roster.
If all those things come together, then we will be able to fret over the bullpen. It's not crazy to think that they could.
