Ha, yeah, that didn't make sense

 Derek Falvey came out today to say, haha, no, the Twins won't be dealing away Carlos Correa. Nor will they be looking to trade Pablo Lopez or Byron Buxton, for that matter. Some New York area newspapers were speculating on the Yankees or Mets looking at trying to acquire Correa from the cash strapped Twins.

They do this all the time, of course. Big market teams believe they are entitled to the best players in smaller markets, but the Twins are still in a competitive mode, so why would anyone begin to think that they three most important, core players of the team would even be on the market?

I mean, aside from the fact that the Twins dropped their salary by $30m last year and already stated they won't be increasing the salary this year. It so happens they are at about the same level already right now. 

And sure, the Pohlads are notorious for their frugality, their cynical dedication to making a profit over any other goal. They are selling the team, and have no vested interest in the future of the squad. A sale won't be completed, certainly, until next season. This is going to be one last grab at either cash or wins, and they've never really cared about wins.

But it's a total fabrication  that Carlos Correa is on the market, just because Joel Sherman threwe it out there. 

But who said anything about Lopez or Buxton, Derek? 

ALL HAIL ZOLL

 The Twins have had a couple of bits of significant news filter out today. The first is that Dave St. Peter, longtime president of the business side of the Twins organization, is stepping aside after over 20 years in the role/ Derek Falvey's portfolio will expand to include this role as well as the president of Baseball Operations title that he's always had.

In more baseball focused news, the Twins also promoted Jeremy Zoll to the role of General Manager. While you try not to get a complex about the fact that he was born in 1990, and what exactly have you been doing with your life, he is a veteran of the organization, starting as the farm director in 2018, and has been involved in trade negotiations, such as the Sonny Gray success, and the Jorge Polanco extremely mixed bag. 

Zoll has a history in player development, but not really in scouting, to go along with that bit of history with trade negotiations. If I were to read into the immediate future, based on this history, the Twins are expecting to base their success on building from within, rather than via players outside of the organization, but that isn't exactly news at this stage, is it?

The other shoe that dropped was St. Peter stepping aside. He's only 57, so this wasn't a retirement. If I had to guess, it has to do with his long time employers stepping away from the team he has worked for for so long, and seeing now as a perfect time to explore something else, or perhaps to continue his work with the Pohlads in a different venture. 

That it is happening now for one of two reasons. One, the Twins went to the General Manager meetings without a general manager, and were embarrassed, or two, St. Peter wants to start the countdown. I wonder then if that means the Pohlads are making progress on a sale. There were some rumors that Glen Taylor might be a suitor, and maybe, just to pull at every string, this might be related to the ongoing arbitration over the sale of the Timberwolves. 

Regardless of what falls out of this, the first major shoe has dropped in the Twins offseason that will have many such instances. Zoll is the GM now. All hail Zoll. 

A creative offseason.

Back in the pandemic days, I was still writing in a more corporate blog environment, and I got a copy of Out of the Park 21, which I used to simulate the season that we lost. That old site pretty much burned all my old posts after I declined their generous offer of "only write about facts or gambling, or else" but I still have that copy of OOTP 21 (the Twins made it to the playoffs, and were swept by Tampa).

I had heard rumors about the evolution engine in the historical game play, and I was fascinated. I created 16 teams and placed them in random cities and have just been simulating, trying to see what would happen. For about 60 fake baseball seasons, the league expanded every once in a while, but it didn't see any teams relocate, which I thought was a little strange.

Then, I realized I didn't set the financials of the league to advance with time, or to carry over year to year, so I adjusted those, and completely throttled the league, because now, every team had a budget from one year, and salaries were about to match those of 60 years later. Free agents were not getting signed, and it was going to take time for all these teams to work their way up to viability.

And then, right in the midst of this slow transition, the league expanded, and two teams were added. These two teams didn't have the weight of the previous financial expectations built into their budget, and were basically shopping in the free agency market by themselves. For two seasons, now, these two teams have signed every free agent that has been signed. Every one of them.

For me, that is a perfect analogy to MLB if, say, the regional sports network model collapsed, and a certain subset didn't have the revenue stream they had had, and others in the league were unimpacted and able to spend, virtually unchecked.

Oh, that's exactly what happened! The Twins will have to set out of free agency, for the most part, as will other teams that lost the RSN revenue. With more teams looking to conserve payroll, the market for free agents is going to be severely restricted. And if that's the case, who is going to be out there taking on contracts? Some teams will be trying to cut payroll themselves, and others will be filling up on their own free agents, rather than trading for help.

Who is providing salary relief? The story of the Twins thee last couple of weeks is that they need to trim payroll before they add more players, but I haven't seen anyone ask if that's even possible, given the way the financial gulf between teams is right now. The Twins have said they will need to be creative to make their payroll work in 2025. Part of the creativity will involve finding any partner willing to make it work.

First base, a mystery, an opportunity

 If you ask 5 different fans, you'll see 5 different opinions on where the Twins should seek to improve their roster for 2025. A lot of this has to to with the with the limit budget. By necessity, the team will have to prioritize, rather than addressing all of their holes, so which spot is the most important? 

Both Carlos Santana's well deserved Gold Glove and Alex Kirilloff's undeserved injury driven retirement brought mor attention first base. and how the Twins are going to fill that spot. usually relied on for a boost of steady offense, and commonly used to hide poor defenders. The Twins, historically, have had good defenders at first, from Hrbek to Mientkiewicz to Morneau and Mauer, and now Carlos Santana. Kirilloff was poised to be one of those players the Twins would try to hid, in part because of bad defense, but also because injuries were already slowing him down.

Santana and Kirilloff departing in one fell swoop opens an amorphous hole that could be filled in a number of ways. They could bring back Santana, and hope for more defensive wizardry, and to continue the relationships he built with the team. This is a good chance, though, to address a glaring weakness the team had down the stretch: reliable production.

The Twins don't need a superstar hitter, they just need a professional hitter, that can steady the team in rougher spots. And the beauty of it is, all they need is hitter, they don't necessarily need a hitting first baseman. Willi Castro, Edouard Julien or Jose Miranda can be shuffled, with any of them playing an infield spot up to and including first base. 

That's why I described the hole as amorphous. It's not a difficult hole to fill. It can be filled by a lot of different players. I'll give one example of a free agent outside of MLB Trade Rumor's top 50. Randall Grichuk is not a first baseman, but fits the bill as a veteran bat. He is a right handed hitter that has played both corner outfield positions in recent years after starting in center field. This would force Castro into the infield, where he i a better fielder than Miranda or Julien at their chosen position. Either could move to first base, and problems begin to be solved.

Grichuk has a career average of .250, and a bit of pop in his bat. While he had a terrific year for Arizona this year, he did it at 1.5m, and while he will be getting a raise, at his age 33 season, it won't be substantial. Especially after the Twins pare their payroll a little bit, Grichuk, or one of the many other bat forward free agents, will be affordable, and will help flesh out the necessary depth for a long season.

The biggest hole is at first base, but that hole can be filled without adding a first baseman. 

Twins hurtle into the offseason

 I don't know if I remember the offseason starting as hot as this years has. It's not like the Twins have done a lot, or undertaken some major moves, but there have certainly been a lot of decisions at the beginning of the long winter, and some other news that will help to define the course the team will take.

The first bit of news was Thad Levine's departure, but the biggest thunderbolt was the news that the Pohlad family will bee looking to sell the Twins. The news has been met with positivity, however there is still no buyer known to be in place. In the mean time, the cheap Pohlads, with a reduced TV contract are still in place, and now, they will feel no consequences for jilting their fans.

We've been told that the Twins will be able to expect a similar payroll versus last year, but I am not optimistic that that will be matched. 

Of course, there is no signal of that yet, just a bunch of small moves that will presage what could be an active offseason. Derek Falvey, undoubtedly will be pulling all the levers available in order to put together the best roster he can, and at the beginning of every offseason, the first move is clearing out some peripheral players who may not be as productive as their salary would foretell. 

Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot were not retained, while Max Kepler, Carlos Santana and Caleb Thielbar are free agents. Most surprisingly, Alex Kirilloff decided to retire, after a short career plagued by persistent injuries. The team did decide to retain Jorge Alcala, by picking up his $1.5m option. The next step will be arbitration hearings and agreements, and then we will be off to the races. 

There will be an imperative to reduce payroll and I'm sure that Chris Paddack and Christian Vazquez are on the top of most lists, which leads me to believe that payroll is going to remain unchanged. Neither Paddack nor Vazquez stand to bring back much in return, and still retain some value for the organization. The Twins would likely have to eat salary, which defeats the purpose, or pair a prospect in order to simply offload the player, which then weakens the farm, which is likely where the Twins need to build from, all while getting nothing back but salary room and another hole.

Minnesota fans are often hung up on free agency, and will lament the teams' likely inability to be active in the market this year, but it's not an efficient use of limited resources. A million here or there might add depth, but a team like the Twins isn't going to fill major holes with superstars very often. Carlos Correa stands as a glaring exception, and even now, both he and Byron Buxton took discounts to re-sign with the organization. The Twins aren't going to pay market rate for a difference maker.

Derek Falvey is likely hoping for a job with the team even after the Pohlads are gone. The best way to secure that is with young talent that will outlive the Pohlad regime. While there is certainly plenty already on the payroll, I would expect any moves to improve the team to involved pure baseball moves. Prospects for prospects, or young major leaguers going one way or another. The current salaries won't bother the Pohlads, and the increasing salary over the years would be someone else's problem.

There has already been quite a bit of shuffling, and it looks like there is going to be a substantial bit of turnover. This may be a chaotic offseason for the Twins, and the flurry of moves from the outset sure sells that opinion. If my instinct is right, that most of the moves are going to be the pure baseball moves I called out, they can take a while. It's busy right now, but that doesn't mean the Twins will be making their big moves any time soon. For the moment, they've certainly been spinning quite a few plates. 

Proof of concept

 

One of the toughest things about college basketball for a stretch of about 20 years was the brevity of the stays in college for the best players. It was hard for schools to build momentum, and the tournament made little sense. The tournament is still a challenge to forecast, but now, teams can build and grow because players are starting to stick around a bit longer. 

The money almost certainly helps. NIL deals get a lot of attention on the football side of it, but they are a boon for basketball players as well. Part of players staying in college involves a high rate of transfers, playing for multiple schools while opportunity and revenue increases along the way. 

Still, whatever money can be made playing college basketball doesn't hold a candle to the riches of the NBA, or even many leagues overseas. For so long, players jumped to the NBA early, and NBA teams often avoided drafting upper classmen, fearing that they wouldn't get better, or there was no "upside" as draft speak goes. 

The thinking seems to be turning around, as teams are starting to realize that college donors can play for a players' development, rather than the team, and having that player spend time deep on their bench. This year, 6 seniors were drafted in the first round. Generally, seniors have been the lottery ticket, selected at the end of the second round, but now, teams are recognizing that they may be able to be inserted into a lineup right away. 

Tonight, Bronny James got the attention for the Lakers, but it was former senior Dalton Knecht who was the first rookie off the bench of LA. College fans will remember Knecht for his sharp shooting at Tennessee, where he ended up after starting at Northern Colorado (that transferring for money and opportunity thing, a prime example). Not many teams are looking for the overall health of the league versus their own success, but having a player with more name recognition as they come into the league is only going to benefit everyone. 

Zach Edey is playing for the Memphis Grizzlies, and is going to start at center. He was the 9th pick in the draft, and everyone who follows basketball knows who he is. He was 2 time player of the year at Purdue, and a force to be reckoned with for the past two years, and totally unrecognizable, save for the 7'4" height, from the player he was as a Freshman. 

The money is a good base to keep players grinding away in college, as is the ability to move more freely from school to school. Now, there is a proof of concept - you can stay in school and still get paid. College basketball is getting it's passion back, and basketball across the country will be better for it. 

The NCAA season starts in less than a week, and the NBA began today.

 No matter your particular affinity for music, hearing about the premature death of a 31 year old father is a tough thing, a hard bit of news. Obviously, there is the family of Liam Payne, as well as his close friends and collaborators to offer condolences to, but he was in the prime of his career. If you were a fan of Payne, especially one who watched him grow up for nearly 20 years, there is likely a sense of loss that is a little deeper for the future is no longer there.
I know of One Direction, and perhaps more than any group, I know the individual members of the group through their other work. Liam Payne in particular dabbled in a field of music I am more interested in, working with hip hop and R&B artists. This led to the sad thought that Quavo has now seen two of his hit making collaborators cut down too soon. First his real life nephew Takeoff, and now Payne.
So I looked to see if Quavo, formerly of the Migos, had any formal statements or public condolences because I am up later than my wife and was a little bit bored. Nothing from Quavo, but I did see other rappers issue statements or social media posts, like Juicy J, Ty Dolla Sign and Flava Flav. Liam Payne was not only someone who worked with these artists, but he was a fan.
I am a 41 year old white dude from Minnesota, and I have been a rap fan for 20+ years, but I was struck by the English kid being a big fan as well. And I know, and am a big fan of English rappers! But this was still quirky to me, and I know it shouldn't be. 
Nevertheless, this post is the result of an internet wormhole I fell in, but in the interests of paying respects to Liam Payne, please enjoy this song, performed by Lol Baby and Central C, rappers from either side of the Atlantic. I presume Payne liked it.

Levine, Popkins, sacrificed to the baseball Gods

 As no doubt long time readers are aware, Minnesota men's sports are cursed. I'm not sure what can be done to break the curse, but it reared its ugly head again for the Twins in 2024. Just when fans of the organization were feeling hopeful, the team slashed payroll, precipitating a chain of events that ended with a disastrous conclusion to the 2024 campaign.

This was an unforced error by the Twins management. If the organization is actively working against the success of the team, that seems to suggest they are in cahoots with the curse, or at the very least seek favor from different baseball gods than those that the fans do. This is obviously the case. The fans look at wins and losses, while the Pohlads wins and losses are in black and red on the ledger.

So yes, fans demanded that there be changes to the organization after a catastrophic end to the year, though the Twins perhaps didn't feel those same pressures. At least, not from a wins and losses stand point. If they did, the changes the organization would have made would have been to the payroll. If you asked many fans, say, those chanting at Target Field, the personnel move they would have preferred was to "Fire Rocco" Baldelli.

But instead, it was the hitting staff, including hitting coach David Popkins, that was let go. Justifiable, certainly, given the offensive collapse and the overall streakiness of the hitters, but maybe not as extensive as some of the more disappointed fans would like. And then there is Thad Levine, also leaving, though the press release seems to indicate it was a mutual decision. I'm not sure there were many people out there saying "boy, Thad Levine is the entire problem, the Twins will be better if he is replaced" but he was an executive, and replacing him is certainly symbolic!

If you haven't figured it out, the gods Levine and Popkins were sacrificed not to the gods of on field fortune, but to the gods of baseball fortune, in the monetary sense. Popkins' firing may mollify some of the fans that still plan on paying for tickets, while Levine didn't hold as much sway as Dave St. Peter or Derek Falvey, the two who kept the budget in check in 2024. 

No word on this will do anything for local curses. 

Grasping at straws

 I'm mad about the end of he Twins season. I am mad about Joe Pohlad's statements, essentially indicating that payroll shouldn't be a determining factor in putting a winning product on the field (despite all evidence to the contrary) and seeming to be unwilling to put any extra investment into the team from a financial standpoint to get through times that are lean for other reasons (Media rights, in this case). Rather than leaning into the momentum of 2023, the organization trembled at the downturn in revenue projections, and subsequently made it worse by pronouncing a reduction in payroll. 

I'm mad because I thought there was a chance that the Twins were making misleading statements, knowing that they were just going to contend with pre-arbitration players, and would necessarily spend less money on players, and would supplement at the deadline if they needed to. That was obviously not the case, and the team instead is doubling down on their unwillingness to increase payroll.

But it's the offseason, and if anything, the last few days have reminded us that it's a blessing to be able to be upset about something as silly as baseball. Yeah, the Twins are a frustrating, spiteful organization, but they also aren't worth a winter's worth of negative energy. That in mind, there is one very dramatic piece of good news.

I was particularly worried, in the face of the various bits of bad news that were tacked upon the end of a bad season that the Twins were going to be happy enough to go into a tailspin for the long term, limiting payroll to operate their business, rather than consuming their minds with winning. Carl Pohlad won a World Series on a 22 million dollar payroll, so dammit, why not do it now?

Obviously, with a mentality like that, anyone that could get out with their reputation intact would go. Dave St. Peter is pretty committed to the Pohlads at this point, but Derek Falvey has a career ahead of him, and by all reports was in a contract year. And Falvey is the Chief Baseball Officer, whereas St. Peter is the one keeping a closer eye on the bank. Falvey is taking the hit to his reputation if things go awry on the field, not so much anyone else. 

And Falvey is staying. 

2024 was a bad year after one of the best in a while, but Derek Falvey, a baseball man as close to the story as anyone could be, isn't giving up on the organization. It might not mean much, but it certainly means something.

Tell me again about the bullpen

 

The Twins just lost three of four to the Guardians and have now fully blown their advantage in the AL Wild Card race. With current trends, it seems unlikely that the Twins are going to be able to shake it off and get back into position for the postseason. The Twins lost the last two games in extra innings, and saw the Guardians pull ahead in the 8th inning in the other game. There is a lot of grousing about the bullpen.

Fine.

The root of the problem, the A Number One element that is cause of the collapse continues to be the inability to put runs across the plate. They were competitive in 4 games, close enough to blow it late, because they had good starting pitching. On offense, they needed extra innings in order to score more runs in a four game set than Shohei Ohtani drove in in one game. 

In my graciousness for the Twins, and how they are trying to build for the future, I would say that this season is intended to get some of their youth experience. The Twins have a good farm system, and the team undoubtedly hoped that some of those young players would ably serve as depth when injuries emerged. Last season was saved by quality depth., and this season may potentially be sunk by young players running out of gas.

Royce Lewis will be a key cog in the future, but he has been terrible for the last month. Edouard Julien was leaned on as a rookie, but hasn't been able to match that success in his second spin. Jose Miranda, similarly, is coming apart at the seams. A lot is made about the young rotation having inning limits. Position players haven't shown themselves to be capable to play a full season either. 

Last year, depth was augmented by Michael A Taylor, Donovan Solano, Joey Gallo and Kyle Farmer. This season, they are most particularly missing Taylor and Solano, as Manuel Margot doesn't play center to cover for Buxton, and while Carlos Santana has been brilliant, he isn't as flexible as Gallo in the field, or the top of the order threat that Solano is.

I'm finishing this post off as the Twins once again have scored only a run through 8 innings. The team is in this by the grace of David Festa, but if the Twins ultimately drop it, it will be laid at the feet of the pitching staff, who mostly did their part. Everything is magnified in a playoff race, which was wrapped up by this point last year. Just make sure the microscope is on the greatest problem. 

Set up for the future

 This is going to be a momentous offseason for the Twins. Not only will there be questions about the roster after consecutive playoff runs, but the front office is in contract years. Will they be willing to continue in Minnesota, even as the restrictions on payroll increase?

My thought is that they will, for as long as Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are under contract. That is, they will stay on for another four years, unless they are blown away by some  huge offers to take over elsewhere. I think that, yes, the Twins have made some frustrating payroll reductions, but I also believe that their window for being competitive is both wide open, and exactly what Falvey and Levine have been building towards.

I was listening to KFAN last week while in the car, and Dan Barreiro suggested that the Twins might be in trouble because of the issues with Correia, Buxton and Lewis's health, and the inability to get all three of them on the field at the same time. Sure, there are concerns long term, but this year, I think Buxton and Correa are being kept on the shelf to ensure they are at 100% for the post season.

Going forward, I think there is a concern with all players. There is simply a different body type playing Major League Baseball now, and bigger stronger players are going to have a greater tendency for injury. Barreiro reference the Braves as a team with good health and players that play every day, conveniently leaving out the season ending injury to Ronald Acuna and Spencer Strider, and lengthy absences for Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies. It affects all teams, not just the Twins.

But with the Twins in particular, I don't think the team is concerned. Correa was sitting with plantar fasciitis, something that you can play with, but Correa was dissatisfied with his performance playing with it in his other foot last year. As someone who has suffered from the same ailment, I can guess that he is not in the lineup because his fielding is most greatly affected, and he has so much value as a fielder. 

I'm not yet concerned about Correa long term, especially given the start to the season he had. With Buxton, most of his injuries came via his incredible effort, which is certainly no reason to excoriate him. Nevertheless, the potential for injury is baked into his contract. Even if you are grousing about it, the Twins are unbothered. 

Royce Lewis has the worst, and most unforced injuries of the three. He's also the bulkiest, putting strain on his ligaments, a common concern for athletes of his generation. Fortunately, Lewis is the only bat first player of the three. His bat will likely play, even with ravaged knees as he grows older. 

Even if you remain unconvinced, there is still enough there, in my opinion, to continue to go for it with this roster. With the payroll limitations in place, but a fairly young roster, there aren't likely to be many changes in to either payroll or roster for at least the next several years. The rest o the core of the team is still under team control for several years, including Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, David Festa and Simeon Woods-Richardson, many of whom will get valuable playoff experience this season, should they make it. Despite the risk of a beleaguered core, they should have the makings of a playoff experienced rotation for the next several years.

That seems to be the most important thing to a lot of fans. Watching the Twins flail offensively for weeks, I am not sure I fully agree with that. But the Twins future looks good there too. Not only are the three subjects of this post under contract, but Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, Brooks Lee and Jose Miranda are going to be staples, with Walker Jenkins and one of the best offensive prospects in the game, Emmanuel Rodriguez coming soon as well. 

The Twins, barring a complete tear down (which I don't rule out, sadly, because of the ownership and not the front office) are well positioned to be competitive for the next few years. If they can hang on and make the playoffs this year, that will be a big step towards longer term contention.

The Twins are scuffling, but which scuffle is greatest

Since around mid-August, the Twins have been in a tail spin. Starting with August 18th's loss to the Rangers, it's been nearly a month of drudgery. A lot of this has been pinned on the team's financial woes, managerial missteps, and general team exhaustion. I have two other theories that kind of go hand in hand. 1 - The Twins, as are all Minnesota men's sports, are cursed. 2 - Since about mid-August, the Twins have been without the three top WAR producers on the team, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Joe Ryan. That's unlucky, but it is fortunate that some combination of those three will be back before seasons end and the post season. 

But if you want depressive takes on what is going on, or someone who is willing to pack it in for the rest of this season and look at the future as a Pohlad (modestly) funded abyss, then you can go to Twins Daily. I'm here because of something I heard on the news last night, roughly, "It's not just the pitching and defense that are bad, the offense isn't very good either." 

Oh? I have been under the impression that the set back in offense has been significantly worse than the run prevention side. I dug into it a little bit. First, I looked at the runs against. In the season ahead of the slump, so through the 17th, opponents were scoring at a clip of 4.3 runs per game. Since that time, that number has jumped to 5.1 runs a game, or about .8 runs more per game.

On offense, the Twins have scored at an abysmal 3.3 runs a game, compared to their pre 8/18 average of 4.9 runs a game. The offense has cratered at twice the clip of their run prevention. In fact, according to Fangraphs, the Twins have the 4th highest pitching WAR in the Major League baseball, which suggests they are pretty good. Since they lost Ryan, they are #12, which means, and hold on tight... they have dropped to slightly above average. Lost in the misery is the fact that Pablo Lopez has been great, Bailey Ober has been incredible, and Simeon Wood-Richardson has silently been a strong back of the rotation starter all year. The pitching seems worse because the Twins are so bad at scoring runs themselves.

Since 8/18, the Twins offense has been 4th from the bottom in all of baseball. They were 7th overall before that The only player regularly producing is Carlos Santana. Maybe it's exhaustion. Maybe it's a slump. Maybe it's Maybelline. I don't know, but the offense is the problem, underlined, bullet pointed and starred. The Twins need Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton back to give the offense a hard reboot. Hell, I would take Alex Kirilloff at this point. 

The pitching since the slump started has taken a mild step back. The offense went from being a strength to no longer being competitive. It's as simple as that. 

Bracing for the Worst

  The last couple of weeks have been tough for the Twins. Their bullpen has started to come apart at the seams, their bats aren't coming through when they are needed, and in the last 10, the Twins are 4-6. What maybe hurts the most about all of this is that everyone in the American League seems to have hit a similar bump in the road. They are now 4.5 games away from having the best record in the American League.

Wait, hold on. Is that right? We are all worried about the team, and the Guardians, Orioles, Yankees and especially the Royals are all treading water or backsliding as well? The Twins have overtaken the Royals, and still, remarkably, are within 4.5 games of the league's best. But this isn't just a "vibes" issue, the leaving the Twins for dead, thing. I'm here to provide optimism, that there is more to come.

The top Twins trio of Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis have all been healthy at the same time on 17 occasions this season. Buxton is gong to be back and ramping up for the postseason soon - he i already playing in St. Paul. Correa played through plantar fasciitis last year, and didnt like what it did for his regular season numbers. After a pause to recuperate, he could also be back to pick up one of the best seasons of his career. Even at 80%, playoff Correa is a force to be reckoned with. And then there is Lewis. 

While ink is often spilled about the Twins pitching, both the starters and the bullpen and it has struggled lately, but since the 18th, when the recent struggles began, the Twins scored more than 5 runs only 4 times, and 3 or fewer runs 7 times. It's hard to win games if you aren't giving your pitchers routine run support. Theoretically, the veterans returning to the lineup should be a boost. 

The pitching is going to be very youthful. The best case scenario, which is reasonable, is that Joe Ryan can return and get some work in during the postseason. At this point, I think the Twins could look forward to a Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Simeon Wood-Richardson postseason trio, with David Festa pitching in a longer series, with Joe Ryan working high leverage relief as he comes back from injury. Again, the concern isn't that the Twins rotation is bad. They are simply young and inexperienced in the postseason. 

Despite it all, the Twins are among the upper echelon of the American League this year. They aren't even functioning at full capacity right now, but may well be there by the post season. Still, given all of our collective history and the messaging around the team this year, Twins Territory is bracing for the worst in October. 

Wasted energy

 I'm sure it's a function of living within the local media market, and being an obsessive follower of Twins fan sites and social media accounts, but it sure seems like the Twins ownership, the Pohlad family, gets a lot more heat than other ownership groups. I'm not here to carry water for the family, if that's what it seems like I'm doing, but rather I'm here to give context to this season's payroll reduction, TV situation, and suggest that even if the Pohlad's sold the team, I'm not sure it would get that much better.

This offseason was marked by television negotiations. The team was expected to find a new streaming friendly deal that would keep the team on the air throughout the 5 state area. In the end, they were only able to get a 1 year deal for an undisclosed amount less than they had made under their previous contract. The Twins took the deal with their previous carrier, the now bankrupt Diamond Sports, which meant no streaming, and fans were upset about the cash grab. 

But if this was a cash grab, that implies that this deal, the one that brought the Twins less (I would guess about 30m less per year) than they had in 2023, for only one year, was the best deal on the table. Last year, I didn't hear about any other options, and there is no buzz about the potential of another deal this offseason, either. 

The argument about the Pohlads is that they are extremely wealthy, and yet they are short changing the Twins. At this point, the Twins are a generational asset for the Pohlads, and not one wealthy person's flight of fancy. Financial decisions to some degree are not fully siloed within the Twins organization, and also, the wins and losses of the team aren't necessarily as important to all the decision makers as the bottom line. 

A case has been made in recent years, certainly, to make the Twins more marketable, and there was an increase in payroll, but it didn't work. There is no lucrative TV deal. The Twins won in the playoffs for the first time, and admittedly in part because of the terrible PR and bad vibes, attendance is down, despite wins being up. No TV, decreased attendance.... The Pohlads may never spend on players again.

But there is value in scarcity. The Pohlads will see the Twins value increase, because there are only 30 teams in the league. There will be a chance that a passionate Twins fan will be interested in the team some day, but they will have to pay through the nose for the team. I wonder who that could be, if such a person even exists. 

If the Pohlads sell, it would likely be to an investment minded person or organization. The Pohlads at least have ties to Minnesota, and despite the tight purse strings, are not as miserly as Contraction Carl. Does the next investor in the team look at the history, the difficult media partnership possibilities an declining attendance in the face of an improving roster and feel any additional desire to augment the team? 

The Pohlads are entitled to do what with their money they please, and you are allowed to feel how you want. Just understand that the days of the free spending Pohlads are probably over, and there is no guarantee that they are ever going away.

Experience comes from experience

 This has been a bumpy week for the Twins, without a doubt. Some heart can be taken in the fact that they have been playing three NL teams that are vying for a playoff spot, but it was still a testament to a young rotation and an overworked bullpen. For better or worse, however, the Twins are still only 2.5 games out of first place and have an 88% chance of reaching the playoffs. 

Despite nearly everything that has gone wrong in the last few weeks, it appears as though the Twins are well on their way to the Playoffs. There is elevated concern now about Bailey Ober after his most recent start, the cataclysm against the Braves, despite his brilliance leading up to this game, which happened to be against a team that has had Minnesota's number for years, in an extremely unfavorable weather setting. 

Greater concern is given to tonight's starter, and two of his brethren. It looks more and more like Simeon Woods-Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews, all rookies, will factor into the Post season roster, with SWR likely starting a potential game three, and Festa and Matthews perhaps pitching out of the bullpen.

People are concerned.

Of course, Woods-Richardson has been pretty good this season, working a 3.69 ERA as a starter before tonight. Where the concern lies is in his experience. Simeon Woods-Richardson, having this be his official rookie season, has never pitched in the postseason. Nor have Festa or Matthews. Ober pitched last season, making this his second turn in the playoffs. It didn't go well the first time, but after a strong regular season, hopes are high. 

For playoff aspirant teams, there is always a demand for battle hardened, playoff tested pitching. The Twins leaned on Pablo Lopez, who was pitching in HIS second postseason, and Sonny Gray who was inconsistent in the playoffs before he was with the Twins, and while with the Twins. Lopez's previous experience, during the 2020 silly season with the Marlins, was wildly different, as the Marlins were playing with house money at that point. His real playoff testing came against the Blue Jays and Astros last year.

And that's the positive spin of this pending post season. The Twins are clearly not going to be making big moves to bring in a front of the rotation starter, but they are going to be near the top of the AL Central for the next several years. You get playoff experience by experiencing he playoffs, and Woods-Richardson, Festa, Matthews and even Ober and Lopez are going to get some more experience. Maybe this won't be their year, but looking at the pieces in place, there will be more chances. 

Really, from this perspective, the only bad news is that Joe Ryan might not get to add the experience as well. And who knows, you play the game on the field, and not on paper. Maybe one of those rookies is going to be precocious, and push the Twins over the edge.

Vibe check

 The Twins are getting squeezed on both sides. Unlike last year when the Twins were eying the postseason, they are both pursuing and being pursued. There was no real competition, the Twins had good starting pitching, and things just seemed a lot more comfortable.

This season has been fraught. Not only are they pursuing the Cleveland Guardians, but the Kansas City Royals are on their heels as well. There isn't any margin for error, and added pressure makes it seem like the Twins are struggling this year much more significantly than the last. On August 20th last year, the Twins won to go to 65-60, while starting Dallas Keuchel against the Pirates. Today, their record is 70-55, but the narratives are all bad.

Part of that, surely, is the two teams they are vying with in the AL Central, and two of the positive narratives those two teams have. Both are fairly raw topics for the Twins fan base, and seeing another organization with success in these areas causes tremors. 

Cleveland has generally improved across the board, but an always above average bullpen has proven to be elite this year. Now, of course, every team is concerned about their bullpen, but the Twins are frustrated in point because they are not getting contributions from players they expected to rely on in the pen. Jhoan Duran and Caleb Thielbar are just off, while free agent additions Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont are already gone, and trade acquisition Justin Topa has been on the shelf all year. There are reasons for fans to be concerned about this pen! 

On the other side of the Twins, is the Kansas City Royals, who were certainly not expected to be where they are this year. Part of the success is attributable to the growth of Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, last year's Joe Ryan-esque acquisition, Cole Ragans, MJ Melendez, Michael Massey and Brady Singer, as well as the renaissance of Salvador Perez. Many people may point to the signings for Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha - who have absolutely been out of their minds this season, producing at a career level, but there is more to the mix than just the free agent acquisitions. 

The Twins have a young rotation, which got younger when Sonny Gray signed with St. Louis, but younger still when Anthony DeSclafani and Chris Paddack got injured. The Twins cut their budget this year, but still managed to get a better pitcher than 2024 Sonny Gray as their #2 arm (Joe Ryan) and their third pitcher is better than last years third option (2024 Bailey Ober vs 2023 Joe Ryan).The real tough spot is at the beginning of the rotation, where Pablo Lopez isn't getting the same level of productivity he got last year, even as his peripherals remain strong.

The Twin are a better team this year than they were last year, and their weaknesses are maybe not entirely as weak as we feel they are. On paper, this is an improved team, even if the vibes are bad.

Anxiety

 The word "deadline" always inspires a little bit of dread. This is when your project is due, your taxes need to be filed, when the thing your are stressed about needs to be completed. Part of the stress is that you need it completed by this particular date. 

Trade deadlines are stress inducing for a different reason. If your team is contention, then the wait is on to see what help you might get. If you are a fan of a team that is out of contention, then you await with some level of apprehension, seeing which of your favorite teams players will be leaving town.

How do you make it worse? Draw things out longer. So far, Isaac Paredes, Zach Elfin, Randy Arozarena and many others have already been traded, and we, as Twins fans, are aligned with a team that, for better or worse, is exceedingly patient. They tend to make their moves within the last hour or so before the deadline, making us all sweat. Will they even DO anything? 

Last year, as it turned out, they didn't, and we still didn't quite believe that until well after the deadline had past. We're at a point where everyone has access to reading a hundred opinions, and we just find ourselves just wanting action. Every ticking moment until the deadline, which will either bring only relief or disappointment.

I think the Twins are going to make a big move this year, running against the momentum of headlines. But I'm just going to be waiting with baited breath, hoping they don't botch another trade for a reliever.

Team USA is reaping what American sports have sowed

Team USA's warm ups to the Olympics have recently gotten a little bumpy. For a nation who has come to expect utter dominance from our men's national basketball team, the tight games against South Sudan and Germany have raised alarm bells. They are not sounding in Adam Silver's office, I'll tell you that much.

Every men's professional league has played a game or series outside of the United States, with some frequency, in the attempt to "grow the game". American sports were so successful at this that the Europeans and South Americans have started bringing their game to the US. As a result, soccer is one of the faster growing sports in the country, and US men's and women's soccer are now players on an international stage, and Major League Soccer is pulling major international superstars.

Like soccer, the barrier to entry in basketball is very low. which allows talented players to emerge from anywhere. South Sudan, for example. Or Serbia or Slovenia, where two of the best players are form, or Nigeria, via Greece. Even Germany had 4 players currently in the NBA on their roster. Surely, the NBA's aggressive global outreach was an important factor in introducing the game, if not to Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic or Giannis Antentokuompo, then surely their friends, or mentors, or whomever taught them the game. 

Now the Olympics are hard. While it isn't great for American interests, this is probably a boon for the IOC as well. Having a globally popular game with world famous athletes playing competitive games will bring eye, which can sometimes be hard to come by for the Olympiad. 

Team USA's struggles are not reflective of an issue with Team USA, even though the criticism will come back on that organization. It's the targeted development of the international game, which is part of a trend in American sports leagues. It's been a resounding success for the NBA, even if it has the potential for disaster in Paris. 

Waking a sleeping giant

 It's no secret that the Twins have not gotten the Christian Vazquez they were hoping for when he signed a three year deal with the club before last season. Fortunately, the wound isn't grievous, as he is still a good defensive backstop, and Ryan Jeffers has ably stepped in and is now among the better hitting catchers in the league.

But still, he is an easy scapegoat for a fanbase that needs someone to blame when things aren't going well. Obviously, the blame will always go to the suits not playing the game, but Vazquez is often the example naysayers bring to the table. With ample reason.

The start of July and really the end of June as well, have been explosive for the Twins. They've had their 25 game home run streak, there was Jose Miranda's record, Brooks Lee's debut, Buxton is coming around, Correa has been on fire... and meanwhile, almost unnoticed by everyone, there is Christian Vazquez. 

So far in the month of July, he's played three games, hit .500, with 2 home runs and 6 runs batted in, which has brought his season's average to over .200. In the 7 run attempted  come back against the Astros, Vazquez had a clutch ground rule double, and then today he hit the walk off home run against Josh Hader. 

 It's not much, but it's something. And in July so far, Vazquez has really been something. 

What in the heck was that?

I got to go to the Twins-Astros game at Target Field on Friday. For a game in which the Twins walked away losers, it may have been the most interesting, entertaining roller coaster I can remember being on. 

Two things that my friend and I knew we would see at the game were the City Connect uniforms (I like the associated merch, the uniforms are fine) and Brooks Lee in his second game. Both came through, as the Twins wore the outfit they said they were going to. For his part, Lee did just fine too, and finished the game, his third of his career, still batting over. 500. 

And yet, Lee was overshadowed by Jose Miranda. He tied the Twins record for consecutive at bats with a hit by going 4-4 in the game against the Astros last night. It didn't help much, because the Twins were down by 8 runs through 8 1/2 innings. But this game won't be remembered for any of that.

It also won't be remembered for Kody Funderburk beaning Cesar Salazar and having the two exchange heated words up the first base line before Carlos Santana came in and played peacemaker. This came after Jose Altuve had to leave the game after being hit by a pitch. For what it's worth, Byron Buxton was hit earlier in the game as well, and Miranda was plunked today, with no flared tempers.

It might be remembered for one of the best catches I've ever seen.

Of course, I didn't see it with my eyes, but I was there! See, here I am on the Bally Sports North feed of the catch, as Loperfido disappeared in the corner. 

Not a great angle.

And while that catch may stand the test of time, last night it wasn't even the most wild part of the night. That was saved for the bottom of the 9th, which started with the Twins behind by 8. The Twins had already replaced Trevor Larnach with Manuel Margot, but Austin Martin and Kyle Farmer had stepped in to give Miranda and Carlos Santana the rest of the night off. Margot struck out, and Martin had a single, followed by a Farmer strikeout. And then the Twins were off.

They hit  three more singles, leading to 2 more runs, and Christian Vazquez coming to the plate. Sureley, this was the end of the road. 

Nope. Vazquez hit a ground rule double. The Twins were down by 5, and Willi Castro walked to load the bases, bringing Carlos Correa, who surely thought the game was over, came up with the bases loaded. And naturally, he hit it just into the flowers to bring it to within 1. For a game that started the bottom of the ninth with an 8 run deficit, the crowd was electric.

Margot struck out immediately thereafter but the point is, it was an incredible game up until that point, full of some of the weirdest, wildest stuff that I've ever seen. 

Oh, and I didn't even mention this play by Correa, which today Glen Perkins described as his best in a Twin uniform.

Or this one, by Altuve, which made me gush, maybe because he was running in our direction before he caught it.

What a game. 

The serenity to accept that which cannot be changed

 It's important to accept those things that we cannot change. The things that are beyond our control. This season, the Twins are 4 games better than they were last year, which is a pretty big shock when you also consider that at the same point last year, they were a game ahead of the AL Central, and this year, they are 8 games behind the Cleveland Guardians. The Twins have at last caught the Royals for second, but sheesh, that is a foreboding hill to climb, catching Cleveland. 

Last year, the Twins were also able to kick it into a higher gear as the season wore on This season, the Twins are successful despite Pablo Lopez's anemic performance. Last year, his worth evidenced itself in the latter half of the season, including pitching to a 2.00 ERA in August. If there is that kind of improvement this year, then that is especially fantastic. 

Part of the worry in 2024 versus 2023, though, even as the team is improved a bit is that one player that hasn't is Lopez himself. Even compared to his sluggish start in 2023, Lopez was dominant last year against right handed hitters, and is merely average against same handed hitters in 2024. There is something to be said for expecting Lopez to be better in the second half, but it's unlikely that he will be nearly as good as he was in the second half last season. 

The season has been a series of ups and downs for the Twins, but one thing in particular has gone very wrong for the Twins. The Cleveland Guardians are playing very well. As much as the Twins can hope for Lopez to return to his 2023 form, it is much more reasonable to start to hope the Guardians slow down, or the suddenly resurgent Twins offense keeps it up. 

As I noted at the beginning, hoping for the Guardians to start to fall apart is all that the Twins can do. There are a few games left on the calendar between the two teams that the Twins will need to win, but beyond that, it's just hope. Hope that the seemingly more challenging schedule proves to indeed be more challenging for Cleveland. Cleveland is thought to have the most difficult schedule the rest of the way. Twins fans can also hope that the the Guardians anemic offense of 2023 was their true self, and not the blistering offensive performers that they have been this year. Come on, regression!

One thing the Twins can do is keep hitting. Their offense was their bugaboo in the beginning of the season, but then it started to gel. The return of Royce Lewis was an obvious kick in the pants, but so too was the arrival o Jose Miranda. Max Kepler and Carlos Correa were next, followed by Carlos Santana and Willi Castro. Now, Byron Buxton is one of the hottest hitters in the game, and games just seem a lot easier to win now. 

If they can keep hitting, they can keep winning. And that might not be enough to take the Central.

Decision Season is almost here

With the summer beginning to warm up, so to do the opinions. It's only early June, but still, everyone is trying to formally assess their team, because decisions are being made. It's really just baked into the season, and not a fault of overzealous fans and sports writers, but even though we are getting into the summer heat only now in the northern US, we are also in All Star Voting season, and beginning to look ahead to the trade deadline.

The initial discussion is a pretty easy solution for the Twins. There are really only two players to consider for the all star game this year - Ryan Jeffers, who may not make it because Salvador Perez and Adley Rutschman will get spots, and Joe Ryan, who would be the third Twins starting pitcher to make the all star game in the last two years, which is fairly incredible. After that, the next best option is Griffin Jax, which is probably a good lesson in why the Twins don't feel like they are having a good season, even as they are better than their 2023 selves. Carlos Correa is simply too unpopular, and Royce Lewis has only been involved in just over a dozen games.

This is a tough thing for the Twins, though. It's really hard to figure how good the Twins actually are on an individual level. This isn't a "small sample size" thing either. Minnesota as a baseball playing environment fundamentally changes as the year goes on. Outdoor games through May are a pretty inhibitive offensive environment, and it get's a heck of a lot better when summer rolls around. But it's decision time now!

Especially after last year, and despite the positive results, it's important for the fans and the team to know that there is support. Sure, the Twins might not be able to really ratchet up payroll (though I believe they will at the deadline) but they could still make moves that improve the team for the home stretch. Of late, the offense seems to be a bit better calibrated (so long as the Twins aren't playing the Yankees) and the pitching has been rougher around the edges. Do you look at the longer season sample, or this last burst of action when making a move?

I've long insisted that I don't think the Twins thought they would be challenged this year, and as a result, overplayed the television situation. Now that they find themselves in a stickier spot than they expected. The team is better than they were at this point last year, but they have also had better luck in the health department. While the atmospheric issues are going to become more favorable for the offense, the internal talent is going to remain about the same.

The Twins bet on Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro to be the utility man, with Farmer struggling mightily, and Castro becoming the life of the party once again. There were concerns about first base initially, but Alex Kirilloff was sent down and Jose Miranda is getting quality run. Carlos Santana has also turned into the reliable offensive presence the team hoped for when they signed him. I think offensively, the greatest need is to supplant Farmer (or Manuel Margot, I guess) and get better from the right side of the plate. 

It would always be nice to add more pitching, but deadline trades in that department have been an unmitigated disaster for this front office. What was the best deadline trade the Twins made a for a pitcher? Was it Sergio Romo? I think it might be. The Twins could use another pitcher, especially if Pablo Lopez doesn't go on a heater to end the year like he did last year, but, and this isn't a money thing, I don't see the Twins making a significant pitching move at the deadline this year. We'll see Randy Dobnak back in the big leagues before that happens. 

The problem at the center of all these decisions remains the same. It's hard to say what this Twins team is yet. We've only seen them in a couple of summer like games. Will the offense click on it's own, and will the Twins believe that it can keep it up when it starts cooling off outside in October? It's hard to decide right now, but you better believe people are looking for decisions.

The looming City Connect uniform is being revealed in 5 days

 In a league as staid as Major League Baseball, new uniform reveals are still a big deal. Changes are infrequent, and there are so many games that new jerseys are going to be seen regularly. There is buzz about the Twins City Connect, debuting on the 10th of June. While part of me hopes they are bringing back their  Turn Ahead the Clock  uniforms from the 90s, I also know that this won't be the case. So I have ideas.

First, I would make the whole thing out of Minnesota Plaid. You know, Paul Bunyan, red and black. Still can't picture it?

You might be saying "Ryan, the Twins clearly teased a water theme".  Of course they did, which leads to the second element. What says "going to the lake" more than a life jacket? And not the good ones with the clasps on the front that were purchased sometime after the Nixon administration. I'm talking about the ratty old ones you have on the pontoon at the cabin.

Get the orange around the collar and down the front of your red and black jersey. I don't know how you can get more connected to the city than that. 

The Twins need Royce Lewis, but how?

It's hard to believe, but the Twins are actually 2.5 games better than the 2023 Twins were on May 30th, 2023. There are a couple of big difference, of course. The rest of the AL Central came to play this year, and Minnesota presently finds themselves in 3rd place. Also, the Twins have been on an extraordinary roller coaster ride throughout the season. 

The pitching has been steady, for what it's worth. Through every spin of the rotation, any pitcher, particularly Joe Ryan, is liable to give 6-7 quality innings, and the bullpen started extremely strong, and has cooled since then. The most volatile part of the Twins production, though is the offense.

It doesn't help that Royce Lewis was injured in the first game of the season, or that Carlo Correa missed a tract of time in the early part of the year either. Those two are viewed as the steadiest hands in the lineup. The Twins seemed to get a boost from Correa's return. One must surmise the same may happen with Lewis when he comes back.

So the Twins, despite a good stretch of baseball, are looking forward to having him come back and patch one of the holes in the lineup. Great! 

Well, maybe not so great. OK, so it is great, but it isn't going to be easy. For all the talk about an inconsistent lineup, the most consistent hitter has been Jose Miranda, Lewis' replacement. Fortunately, both Miranda and Lewis or positionally versatile and can be slotted nearly anywhere in the infield. 

I'm not even going to dig into the stats for Carlos Correa, because he is obviously not going anywhere. Utility hitter Willi Castro has been the third most valuable player for the Twins in the month of May, for some reason.

That leaves 4 hitters in the infield that might lose their spot when Lewis is ready to go. The young players that still have options, Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien buoyed the team for the first part of the team, but have since fallen on hard times. In the last couple of weeks, though, Kirilloff has started to come out of his funk. Julien plays a position that Lewis isn't known for. Do you let Kirilloff continue to swing his way out of his troubles, trusting him to be a major leaguer at this point, or do you want one of your top prospects to play out of position?

Those aren't the only two options, of course. There are a couple of veterans that might see their time with the Twins come to a close. Carlos Santana is the 10th oldest player in Major League Baseball (at a youthful 37) and was miserable to start. In the month of May, he was the 5th most valuable Twin, about where his productivity was expected to land. That leaves Kyle Farmer, an extremely popular player in the clubhouse. His popularity, the glue he provides to the team, were factors in the Twins spending what they did to retain him. He hasn't become unpopular, but his productivity has fallen off. Will the Twins want to sacrifice the investment they put into him?

There isn't an easy choice, but the nature of baseball is that there is always something unexpected around the corner. An injury would completely change the decision making process. For now, it's kust a tough decition.

Supreme confidence and the undoing of Minnesota sports

I have some exciting news to share, that my family just was unimpressed by at the Mother's Day cookout. I had a question answered by Steve Adams during MLB Trade Rumors' regular chat. It's quite the accolade, and I'm very happy about it.

Suffice to say, Steve didn't share my opinion, but also, he didn't convince me that I was wrong

The Twins thought they were going to be good enough to win the AL Central with the roster as it was. Ultimately, they are still a business, and if they thought they could do it with Carlos Santana and Anthony DeSclafani, then they weren't going to spend any more money. Like I've been saying, they didn't believe they needed the strong players now, they need them in October. 

And of course, this hubris led the Twins to a very rocky start to the season. watching Louie Varland's start to the season had quite a few Twins fans on the cusp of a breakdown. The Twins front office, again, by my theory and not necessarily thanks to evidence from anyone else, assumed they had the upper hand in the AL Central, and an abysmal start to the season made that assumption seem silly. 

Amid the Twins surge back to baseball relevance, the Timberwolves were on a blistering 6 game playoff winning streak. They swept the Suns out of the playoffs, then took the first two games against the Nuggets in Denver. Nearly anyone that spoke about basketball with any sort of national presence and knowledge of the game declared the Timberwolves a force to be reckoned with, a potential NBA champion.

Then, there was a long layoff before the series moved to Minnesota. The Wolves got to hear about how great they were while the Nuggets, 2 time defending champions, got to get angrier, and prepare to for the Wolves. As we all now are painfully aware, the Nuggets subsequently went on to peel off three straight wins. Ouch. 

Now, Minnesota, given less time to figure it out, after not thinking they would need to figure things out. Denver adjusted to them, and when you are in control, you don't ever plan to make adjustments. The Wolves are lost, now, unsure of how to get back to where they were, and with time running out. They got overconfident, and it may cost their season.

Even with the long history of sports malaise in Minnesota, you would think that people would temper their expectations when it comes to our teams. I guess this is athletes and management who don't have the 30 years of torment, or the national press, looking at Minnesota teams as though there wasn't a unique history of failing to live up to the moment. Overconfidence is a blight for any situation, and it's tough to watch, since local teams haven't won anything yet. 

Finding deeper depth

Some people talk about roller coaster seasons, but I don't think there is a finer example than how the Twins have started the 2024 season. Through about a month and a half, the Twins are about where they were expected to be, just with a more interesting path. And also, the team isn't really what we expected.

When the team trimmed payroll, most of the trimming was done in the rotation with Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda moving to new homes. Little was done to replace pitchers - the only starter added was already injured Anthony DeSclafani - that left, and fans were distraught. The pitching hasn't been the problem when things go sideways, however.

The rotation has been steady even if not spectacular. The bullpen, even without Jhoan Duran to start the year, has been spectacular. The pen is a low cost area to do good work, and the Twins have done so, with Griffin Jax and Cole Sands among the success stories. With that in mind, the rotation's steady output is all that they have needed. Selecting either Chris Paddack or Simeon Woods-Richardson as the replacement for Maeda is a clear win, given Maeda's start in Detroit. Gray has been very good in St. Louis, but the luxury of having him in the rotation was probably not worth being on the hook for 3 more years into his mid to late 30s, not when the Twins have faith in their emerging pitchers.

And again, the Twins have the prospect depth to add a frontline starter as the postseason approaches. The Twins shouldn't need an ace pitcher in May, but they would really like a good, healthy extra pitcher in October. 

I've gone off the scent, responding to the various strawmen I usually respond to from the Twins internet. The problem this season, when there are problems, is the hitting. It hasn't helped that sparkplug Royce Lewis has been injured since game 1, but it hurts even more that through the first several weeks of the season, only Alex Kirilloff and Carlos Correa were providing any offensive value. 

When the Twins bats started coming around, so did the teams' fortunes. Sure, getting to face the White Sox helped, but so too did Correa's return from injury, Ryan Jeffers' explosion and Max Kepler's full health. The struggling Willi Castro became the incandescent Willi Castro. Carlos Santana couldn't stop hitting home runs. 

The Twins made a decision to cut payroll, and blamed it on the TV situation. In truth, they were probably loathe to spend a lot of money on old pitchers, and they didn't want to sink a lot of money into position players where youngsters were poised to take over. Last year, bridge players like Michael A. Taylor and Donovan Solano were effective. The one they held on to this year, Kyle Farmer, and his other players in similar roles, including Santana and Manuel Margot, have not picked up the slack, making things look even worse. 

Minnesota simply hasn't had depth that was as effective last season, so when injuries arose early, they couldn't shake out of the funk. The closer to healthy roster, with input from Austin Martin, Trevor Larnach and Jose Miranda has been encouraging. The veteran bridge has disappointed this year, but as the Twins hope for a healthy Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee, while awaiting Walker Jenkins, the key to success might be realizing that the bridge has been built internally. 

The Vikings, if nothing else, had the most interesting draft day

 

The NFL is pervasive. The Timberwolves just swept their way into the second round of the NBA playoffs, their first ever experience being the sweeping team in a postseason series. The Twins are in the midst of a 7 game winning streak (and this is more or less a Twins blog!) and yet here I am, writing about the Vikings and their draft. 

Unless someone from one of your favorite college teams was drafted in the later rounds, it is unlikely that you have any insight into the later rounds. If you are very interested in the draft, or even fairly interested in college football, you will have a pretty good concept of how teams did in the first couple of rounds, or will at least be able to form an opinion on the matter. This is a long way to say that I'm only looking at the first two rounds of the Vikings draft. Maybe one of the late round picks will blossom as well.

For most of us, and really probably for the most part, it was a two person draft for the Vikings. They plucked JJ McCarthy to be their quarterback of the future, and Dallas Turner, a dynamic edge rusher, to replace, they hope, the production that they lost when Danielle Hunter went to Houston. There are plenty of mixed opinions on the arrangement. 

The Vikings pursuit of a quarterback was not a secret. Leading up to the draft, they traded into another 1st round pick, which many suspected would be paired with their original selection to move up as far as they could to nab the QB. That turned out to be an impossible task, as the top three teams, the Bears - after trading away Justin Fields, Commanders and Patriots - after trading away Mac Jones, all needed a quarterback.

The next several teams did not need a quarterback, but there were still at least two available that were intriguing. The behind the scenes manipulations and jockeying led the Vikings to be comfortable with staying where they were. Many of the teams ahead of them wanted to ensure they got the best players at their position, or others simply weren't expected to trade within their division (like the Chargers, who weren't going to trade with the Broncos or Raiders so they could get the QB of their future). The Vikings were in a good position.

And then, the Falcons, the same Falcons who selected Kurt Cousins, leading the Vikings to need a quarterback, selected Michael Penix Jr, taking away one of the QB options Minnesota and all the others had been relying on.

Similar to the Chargers not wanting to help their division rivals, the Bears, picking 9th, weren't going to help the Vikings out, and Minnesota was fortunate enough that Chicago didn't also help the Broncos or Raiders. The Vikings then did the right thing and made a swap with the Jets to prevent the other QB needy teams from moving up for JJ McCarthy. All of this is a preamble to say that the Vikings played this draft as well as they could have. 

My opinion of rookie quarterbacks is that teams will get more mileage out of them with a good foundation around them. Receivers are one thing - and Minnesota has one of the best corps in the league - but also, a veteran and solid offensive line will give young QBs more time to think in the faster game. There are questions about McCarthy, but he probably ended up in the best environment. 

This isn't a Christian Ponder situation. This is a team that has acclimated to winning, and will put McCarthy in the best spot to succeed. No, he may not start right away, or be able to be an elite thrower, but a well constructed offense, and a very good defense will keep him and his team in games, allowing him to learn without panicking. 

And on the topic of the defense, the other selection the Vikings made was on the defensive side of the ball, where edge rusher Dallas Turner was selected. Minnesota made a trade with Jacksonville to mov up an select Turner, a larger jump than the move for McCarthy. Turner was the third overall defensive player drafted. Remember, McCarthy was the 4th overall drafted quarterback. 

With one of the best defensive minds in the game in Brian Flores as the defensive coordinator, I am left with no choice but to believe that Turner was the player that would most significantly improve the Vikings defense next year, despite what other analysts or scouts would believe. The Vikings knew they had to get a quarterback, but it was icing on the cake, I'm sure, that they were also able to get one of the top defenders in this class.

The downside to this draft was how much they had to give up. They are left with only three picks next year, but conversely, ended up making their full 7 picks this year. It's not perfect, especially with next year's situation, but there is still time to add more picks next year, and I appreciate their ability to fill out a draft class in 2024. 

Most reports I have read opining on the Vikings draft class gave them a B- or a C or something in that range, which leans heavily into the fact that they had no day 2 selections. I think given the circumstances and the means at their disposal, Minnesota did an excellent job. They needed a quarterback for the future, and unlike many of the the other teams in a similar spot, they weren't bad enough last season to have a high choice in the draft. McCarthy was not the top prospect in the draft, but he is going to a good home, and the Vikings didn't ultimately have to leverage a whole lot to get him.

They were prepared to expend a bit to get him if they had to, however. Instead of using the resources to move up for a quarterback, the Vikings were able to use them to select an edge rusher who many are already picking to be the Defensive Rookie of the Year. I hope Minnesota fans are applauding the fact that, instead of resting on their laurels, the Vikings leapt at an opportunity.

The Vikings maybe didn't have enough selections, and there is obviously going to be a difference of opinion on Turner, and drafting a quarterback, let alone the 4th quarterback, is always going to raise an eyebrow, but from my outside perspective, it looks like the Vikings did what they had to, and made the most of their situation.

Disproving some common Twins myths

 

I'm including the full highlights of Saturday's game in order to confirm a couple of rumors that weren't in fact, true.

1) The Twins will actually win another game this season. This game ended a 5 game losing streak in which the team looked like they were in a lot of trouble. Of course, their last three wins were against the Tigers, so the dream is that they can even win a game against someone other than Detroit soon. We can keep our fingers crossed.

2) The front office HAS developed a pitcher. Bailey Ober came up through the Falvey/Levine system, after being a 12th round pick, and now is one of the three fully reliable pitchers in the rotation. Louie Varland still could get there, if he shakes his recent rough start, and failing that, could still go back to the bullpen, where he was dominant. That's 40% of the rotation! Joe Ryan made his first start as a Twin, and Pablo Lopez is going to be here a while as well, and say what you will, but I think it takes talent to add to a rotation no matter how you do it. 

Now, as yet to be proven, is whether or not Minnesota can win two games in a row, let alone two games started by home grown talent. Varland takes the mound Sunday afternoon to find out. 

Bad luck doesn't explain everything.

I’ve started attempting to write a post about the Twins struggles with injuries about 5 days ago. I was going to note that they had still been surprisingly competitive. Then, they went ahead and got swept in Baltimore, and continued to look flat in last night’s series opener with the Tigers. So much for being competitive.

There are a great many issues with the Twins, and some of them won’t be resolved with health. There is no offensive depth on the roster outside of a couple of positions, and even at full health, there would be concerns about filling out the roster with more competent at bats when players need a day off. There is also a fundamental area of misfortune that seems to have settled on the Twins that is different from last season.

The injury bug has burrowed deeper on the organization this season, as compared to last, where the injury concerns were more broad. Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda got hurt, so Bailey Ober and Louie Varland stepped up. The Twins lost Jorge Polanco, so Edouard Julien took on the role. No Byron Buxton? How about Michael A. Taylor?

Now a big issue Minnesota has had was not only the injuries in the Major League roster, but also the concurrent injuries to start the year in St. Paul. Brooks Lee, for example, was likely to be the first call up for the Twins if injuries happened, but then he was on the IL before the season started. Max Kepler was hurt early, and the St. Paul Saints were also short Trevor Larnach. Almost immediately, the Twins had to dig deeper when finding people to take important roles.

Austin Martin was expected to be a contributor this year, but not to the level he’s been asked to so far this year. Jose Miranda’s star faded last season, but he is back and playing somewhat regularly. Larnach is healthy again, but I don’t think anyone expects him to be a savior

Again, this is only a small part of the problem. Last season, part of the solution to the early slump and injury bug was Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro stepping up, and both have been atrocious. Edouard Julien hasn’t quite figured out his bat this year, and Christian Vasquez, fully in the role of back up catcher, has been terrible at the plate.

The Twins are going to have to be much better on offense if they want to pull out of their funk. Injuries have certainly been a huge issue, and not just on the Major League roster, but in St Paul as well. It’s a tougher burden to bear, and the healthy players aren’t bearing it well.

Another slow start with a lot of injuries

 Existence as a Twins fan usually involves getting more or less excited about some player, then seeing those hopes dashed almost immediately. The Twins don't so much string you along, as break your heart very quickly. I guess that's nice in a way. This year, Royce Lewis got hurt in the first game, and Carlos Correa got hurt only 10 games later. This is compounded with all the bullpen aches and pains that led up to the season.

Naturally, at the beginning of the season, Lewis was heralded as a breakout player, Carlos Correa was healthy and would get a bounceback player, while the bullpen was seen as a real strength of the roster, so of course those were all players that kept getting nicked up. 

This isn't a surprise at this point. It seems like the Twins are troubled by injury annually, and always early in the season. We speculate on who might fill in should someone get injured, and then we end up with a full season of Bailey Ober because Kenta Maeda got hurt right away. Austin Martin has been on the roster and playing nearly every game already.

Also this season, we've been granted another dreadful start. At the beginning of today's game, three players in the lineup started with an OPS below .300, which is actually pretty terrible. It's an unfortunate trend for as long as I can remember. I think over the course of my nearly 20 years (Jesus, 20 years?) of writing about the Twins online, I've had a nearly annual "who cares about the pitching if they can't hit?" post that comes out this time of year.

One trend this year, however, is that their "Clutch" rating isn't that far below normal. Since 2021, the Twins have the lowest aggregate "clutch" rating, according to Fangraphs, in all of baseball. Essentially, it shows how much better or worse a team does in high leverage situations compared to their normal performance. This should be a stat that levels off over time, and the Twins simply haven't leveled off from their awful situational performances since the pandemic.

This year though, they have hit nearly as well in high leverage situations as in regular play. Unfortunately, that's only because the Twins haven't hit during any situation. They went on an 0-28 streak with runners in scoring position, and it wasn't THAT much worse than they normally hit. 

These three things, the early season injuries, the slow offensive starts and the poor performance in the clutch can all be attributed to bad luck, small samples or variance in their own ways. But the trend is there. This happens every year, and there isn't really an answer (aside from a curse). Maybe it's cultural, or has to do with offseason workouts. 

Back when the Twins were regularly getting to the playoffs and turning into pumpkins, it was clear something about the team was different when they got there. I insisted it was time for a change at the top, to change the team mindset. If the Twins can't get to the playoffs this year, and this season opening funk is a big part of that, it might be time for a change in 2024 as well. There is something off here, and that's the only place I can think to look.