The Oscars: Grammys 2

Sometimes, I feel an investment in the Oscars, especially if there is a buzzy movie that is nominated, or I hear a lot about some of the nominations before the ceremony begins, even if I haven't heard much about them when they were initially released. Sometimes I will hear about performances from a particular movie, or more rarely, I will have seen a film that is nominated even before nominations are released.
This year, I'm not even interested in the best picture or acting categories. I haven't seen anything except Black Panther, which really wasn't as good as some other best picture films but way better than most superhero flicks. It explores complex issues in it's own way, but perhaps not as explicitly as BlacKkKlansman, and those two films likely compete in the same space for ballots.
That's about the extent of my introspection on best picture nominees, and I have zero thoughts on the acting categories.
Perhaps for the first time, I am very excited to see what happens with the music categories. I've been open about my appreciation for the entire soundtrack to Black Panther, and am on record as saying that Kendrick Lamar deserves an Oscar for his work. Three Six Mafia has an Oscar. It's not unheard of for a hip hop performer to win one, and Kendrick Lamar is significantly more talented, and there are a handful of songs that are better than It's Hard Out Here for A Pimp on the Black Panther soundtrack.
But then A Star is Born was released. The movie's feature song "Shallow" was so good that it actually won a Grammy for best performance in the pop category, not just the music for visual media. It was a better song than almost all other pop songs released last year. Black Panther and Kendrick Lamar suddenly don't have the award as locked up as I expected.
Ultimately, the Oscars are likely to play out how the Grammys did. Black Panther was nominated for Album of the year, which is an incredible accomplishment, and a credit to Kendrick Lamar and the other artists on the album for a well rounded body of work, and won for the best score. All of the Stars was nominated for many best song categories, and King's Dead was nominated for best Rap Song. Neither won.
That's how it will go at the Oscar's, I suspect. Black Panther won't win anything for the best song, that will go to Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper, but the score will go to Black Panther. Any other result will be a surprise. I'll be rooting for the favorites.