Monday, April 17, 2023

The Twins are clutch!

 Gigantic asterisk there, I guess. One of the incredible things about the last two seasons was that two years ago, the Twins were historically incompetent in late and close situations, or with runners in scoring position. Their offense was miserable, and it was largely because they were at their worst when the spotlight shone brightest. 

According to Fangraphs' "Clutch" score, the Twins were awful in 2021, performing much worse in high leverage situations than in normal circumstances. In 2022, they were markedly worse by the same metric. Per Fangraphs, "Clutch" should level off between 1 and -1, where negative numbers signify a lesser performance in big moments. Players usually don't magically become sustainably better or worse in certain situations. As such, a -2 rating is described as being "awful" in the clutch. Last year, the Twins Clutch score was -5.8. 

The balls haven't bounced Minnesota's way for two full seasons now. It's not your imagination. You can blame it on bad luck, or mental toughness or whatever, but the fact is there. The Twins have been inept in important situations.

Clutch is a rate statistic, and not a counting stat, so even this early into the season we can begin to get a read on whether or not the Twins will be snakebit again in 2023. It turns out that they are within the most likely range, of under 1. Still negative, but not absurdly so! 

That said, the Twins are 25th in the league in runs scored, despite finally getting an off day for the first time in April today. Acknowledging some injuries on the roster, the fact probably remains that the Twins probably just don't have a very good offense. At least they don't get worse in the important spots. 

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