All right, now let's talk about free agents.

There is quite a bit of valid consternation about the Twins payroll for the 2024 season. The Twins are presently without a television contract, and the network that has typically been available to air games locally is not going to be an option anymore, thanks to the collapse of the regional sports network infrastructure. 

Then, there were the statements by Derek Falvey, in which he stated that the payroll would be lower this year. We don't have any hard figures, but even if there is a significant drop in the payroll, some important players are under contract, while other important players are still on their rookie deals. There is room for free agency, is what I am saying, and the Twins are usually active in scouring the market.

Let's look at the breakdown that was provided by MLBTradeRumors, as well as the picks for free agents three of their writers suspected would fit in Minnesota. The comprehensive list is below.
SP Marcus Stroman
SP Kenta Maeda
1b Rhys Hoskins
RP Reynaldo Lopez
OF Harrison Bader
RP Hector Neris

I think we can dismiss some of these out of hand. First, they don't like to overextend for starting pitchers unless they are already very comfortable with them. That eliminates Stroman. They also are loathe to commit multi year contracts to relief pitchers, which takes care of Lopez and Neris. Hoskins is one of the top bat first free agents out there. He suffered a torn ACL last spring, but that shouldn't deter teams in need of a bat. The Twins aren't likely to get into a bidding war at the top of the market this offseason.

That leaves Kenta Maeda and Harrison Bader, which seems like a reasonable expectation for how active the Twins are in free agency this year. If you use the MLBTR estimates, that would be 28m in free agent salary, which seems extremely reasonable based on the estimated salaries provided by Sportrac. This would lead to a $138m payroll even after the estimated arbitration decisions.

As we noted yesterday, some more of that salary is expected to be subtracted in trades of players like Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler or Kyle Farmer. That's $27m of salary that would be replaced by pre arbitration players like Austin Martin or Brooks Lee. There might still be a spot to bolster, like a right handed bat similar, but perhaps not as expensive as Hoskins. 

Don't be worried about the reduction in payroll. That doesn't mean that the Twins aren't going to be active this winter, and there is a very real chance they make a couple of notable signings, on top of a few expected trades.