The plan of action will be a plan for action

 I'm not sure that this season could have met a more catastrophic end. Sure, the Twins were able to look like they had a pulse when they would play teams like the Royals, Red Sox and Giants, but when they squared off against foes with any semblance of competence, the wheels swiftly and dramatically came off. To wit, they have gone 1-9 against the Cleveland Guardians, the team presently in first place in the Central. First place by a lot after running rough shod over the Twins.

There has been an incredible amount of ill will towards the Twins in response to this pitiful end of the year. Judd Zulgad and Phil Mackey pin a lot of blame on Rocco Baldelli. Aaron Gleeman questions the decisions of the front office. Sure, questions can be asked of all of them, and I maintain that three years in a row of bad luck (i.e. another rough year next year) can no longer really be called bad luck any longer. But we aren't there yet.

I can also appreciate the opinion that the Twins need to make some moves. It would be intolerable for a team to crater like the Twins have and just stand pat in the offseason. The Twins were expected to finish approximately where they will finish - around .500, but the path to getting there has made everyone look bad. Looking at where things went sour should direct the Twins as to where they should proceed this off -season. 

The inflection point of this season, to me, was late May. I think that rings true for a lot of people, as it was their last winning month. It was also the month in which Wes Johnson left the team, and injuries started to pile up. They have to be related, right? So then it has to be addressed. 

Before anything else, the pitching coaching staff must be overhauled. Pete Maki was in over his as a midseason replacement. Maybe a full offseason of preparation would do wonders, but then, Maki was the minor league pitching coordinator since 2017, and should have a decent feel for the team and the players. If the Twins wanted to keep him on the staff, that is one thing, but I have to believe that Maki and bullpen coach Colby Suggs need to be replaced to even begin to appease the naysayers. 

I'm not a medical expert, so I have no idea how to treat this situation. The trainers and doctors on staff are probably very good. They have certainly been busy. But something tangible needs to be addressed. Even if it is bad luck, that luck is bound to change, and the front office would look like they had done something credible to resolve an overwhelming issue from the prior season. Whatever it is they do. Add a trainer, remove a trainer, introduce an organization wide calisthenics program for the offseason. Something! 

But make no mistake, this is a front office that WILL do something. Whenever they've had a hole to fill, they've tried to fill it. Right now might be the time to be forthright with what went wrong, and what they were trying to do. The pitching staff situation makes sense to me, even if it doesn't to everyone. The team started with Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Archer, Josh Winder, and Chris Paddack, 7 starters for 5 spots. Archer and Paddack have not been healthy for a while, and Winder was just now becoming a major leaguer. 

I think the Twins were attempting to have a two starter per game system. They were famously quick to remove starters after two turns through a lineup, and having Chris Archer and Chris Paddack combine to go through full games would save their arms and the bullpen, all while putting together an elite performance. Dylan Bundy and Josh Winder could do the same, or with one or two injuries, they could have hoped that Griffin Jax, (who ultimately landed in the 'pen), Jordan Balazovic or Cole Sands could have dropped into one of those low exposure roles.

I think it could have worked, but they were beset by injuries. Archer was over exposed and the bullpen was overworked. Nobody ever seemed to come back, and then the pitching coach left. We haven't heard this explanation from the front office yet. If this is an accurate assessment, we should! One of the criticisms has been that they don't know how to add starters. Laying this plan out would have demonstrated at least, well, a plan.

And then, after that, I have no solid advice, or even wishes for this organization. They have done everything I've wanted. They've been aggressive in acquiring assets. They resigned Byron Buxton, and even shelled out for Josh Donaldson and then Carlos Correa. They've become more modern in almost every way, and they are still getting the same results as the team did before they took over. 

This front office has been calculated when playing the free agent market, but they've always come away with players. Being calculated doesn't mean cheap, and they have shelled out for players that will come here. They've traded at deadlines where they were sellers and buyers. At least when taken at odds with the prior administrations, they will do something this offseason. Maybe they won't fix what is ailing this team, but Derek Falvey, Thad Levine and Rocco Baldelli are sure going to try. 

The Twins are cooked, but what about their employees?

 

It's getting to be pretty dark out here in Twins Territory. The Twins were a game and a half out of first and welcomed the Cleveland Guardians to town, looking to make some serious inroads in the final month of the season. The Twins never led for any of the series, and now find themselves 5 games out of first. I've considered myself a more positive fan than most of the fan base, but even I have to admit -- the Twins are cooked. 

As often happens in beleaguered markets, many fans are openly speculating on whether or not the front office or manager Rocco Baldelli may potentially be on the outs. Almost certainly not. Rocco Baldelli can't be held to account because a league leading number of his players have spent time on the injured list this season. That said, with the tumult on his coaching staff this year, and the absolute meltdown of the offense, it wouldn't surprise me if there were new pitching or hitting coaches next year.

Thad Levine openly said they were going to try to get weird with the pitching set up, but given he injuries they had, they simply looked like they had an incompetent offseason, because they had to fall into a more typical pitching cadence that didn't work for this team. Imagine how differently it would go if Dylan Bundy got to pair with Bailey Ober, Chris Archer with Chris Paddack. But even if there were longer starts, they still needed to generate a better bullpen. That too was afflicted by injury, but even in full health, it was suspect.

Derek Falvey came to Minnesota promising to develop pitchers. And he has. Consider that the Twins added and develop Jhoan Duran in a trade with the Diamondbacks. Bailey Ober and Louie Varland are former double digit draft picks. Randy Dobnak was signed out of independent ball. The Twins have developed pitchers. In fact, most of the top 30 pitching prospects were drafted in the 4th round or later. This is a systemic strength, the ability to make prospects out of lowly regarded pitchers. 

Of course, the Twins also have a knack for signing players that perform at a level that is not consistent with expectations, and find themselves injured too often. That is a discredit to organizational scouting and the training staff. And Levine's pitching strategy exposed the team to a lot of risk, and the worst case scenario came to pass with a reluctance to adapt. Even the healthy players for Rocco Baldelli failed to hit in the clutch. Seizing up in pressure situations was a hallmark of the Gardenhire tenure, and this is the second year in a row of this in the regular season. At some point, Baldelli will have to answer for this as well, fair or not.

Nobody should lose their job over this season, but if changes aren't made in their approach to near, time on this particular organizational tenure may be winding short.

We approach the deadline with Terry Ryan PTSD

The Twins likely knew that their bullpen wasn't perfect heading into the season, but also knew that relief arms are the most commonly moved players at the deadline. I'm sure they figured that if they indeed were contenders for the post season, they could patch things up at the deadline. Sure enough, they are contenders, but I don't think even the most pessimistic outlooks could have seen how comically bad this pen has been.

It has made many people opine that the Twins front office is inactive, despite the fact that they traded for or signed four starting pitchers this offseason (Sonny Gray, Chris Paddack, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer) and signed the number one free agent on the market in Carlos Correa. They were plenty active this offseason, but the flashiest moves simply were not in the bullpen.

The Twins have also not been left out of the deadline ever since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over, save for 2020, which was a bizarre year anyways, to say the least. Either buying or selling, this team has made moves when it was time to make a move. The success rate remains debatable, but this is a long change form where the Twins organization used to be. 

Terry Ryan was always loathe to move prospects, which in retrospect is even more frustrating, considering how little value they got out of guys like Kevin Slowey. Minnesota was often rumored to be in the mix for intriguing players, from Kris Benson to Alfonso Soriano, but Ryan and crew never came through in the end. People blamed the front office when Ryan was inactive, but the current regime seems to tell us that it was more Ryan's personality. 

Of course, in the interim, there were Rob Antony and Bill Smith. They were a bit more loose with the trades, for better or worse, but this is the first front office that I can remember in Minnesota with a history of being aggressive. A lot of Twins fans still seem to be stuck in the mid-2000s, when the Twins were mentioned as teams asking about trade candidates, but never following through. Falvine is different.

Injuries have ravaged the pitching staff this year, rendering a lot of the offseason work for naught. Recent rounds of injuries to both prospects and major league players likely limits the possible return for the Twins this year. On the other hand, Jose Miranda's July likely made him too good to be traded. Just because it will be harder to make trades doesn't mean that this front office won't, even if you don't believe they weill. 

Missing the forest for the trees

Aside from my fandom, Purdue basketball and the Minnesota Twins have something in common: winning in the regular season, failure in the post season. It's a tough way to go through life, undoubtedly. Other fans of both teams are justifiably frustrated and losing patience. Factions of both squads are calling for changes to the coaching staffs.

For different reasons for both team, those are reactionary positions, and don't really represent solutions that would solve problems. In Purdue's case, in particular, it would certainly hurt more than it helps, the firing of long time head coach Matt Painter. Painter took over for venerated coach Gene Keady, who lead the Boilermakers through the 80s, 90s and into the early 2000s. Under his direction, the Boilers made the tournament 18 times, without a single Final Four appearance.

The criticism of Painter is that he is likewise unable to reach the Final Four. Sure, he makes it to the Big Dance on an almost annual basis, but he's only reached one Elite 8, and the Sweet 16 on 7 occasions. Keady, for what it's worth, reached the sweet 16 5 times in his venerable career, which was 25 years in West Lafayette. 

Keady was a technician who excelled at getting the most out of the players he had. Painter, on the other hand is an excellent recruiter. Part of the criticism of Painter is that he hasn't gotten the best out of his exemplary recruiting classes. While fair, I would also argue that it takes a special coach to get such persistently talented classes to come to a school that hasn't been to the Final Four in 42 years, is located adjacent to some Indiana cornfields and doesn't have an extensive track record of NBA talent. If there was a way to combine Keady's technical prowess and Painter's eye for talent, you would really be on to something, but it's pretty special that Purdue was able to hit on one or the other in back to back coaching hires.

Put another way, who are you hiring to replace Painter? What would they bring to the table? A different voice? College classes turn over every 4 years, at most. That the Boilermakers are in the discussion year over year is a credit to what Painter has built at Purdue.

The Twins sit in first place, have acquired and developed talent in a cost effective manner, and have a pipeline of pitching prospects that were promised when the current leadership was hired. I know that I have wondered just what the heck the Twins were doing at certain points, with Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, this offseason, but it's hard to argue with results. 

The Twins are famously amid a historic postseason losing streak, but this is the third front office and third manager to helm the team through this drought. It's not entirely on them, and contrary to previous administrations, they've been aggressive on the trade and free agent market, willing to trade away prospects and spend money where it suited the team. 

It's been working, and it's worked so far this year. Why would you want to change direction now, when the Twins so recently made a hard change shortly before a pandemic interrupted everything, and success is being realized? Because Tyler Duffey had a couple of bad outings? This was the direction so many fans clamored for when Terry Ryan was in charge. We have it. Did you want to go back?

Matt Painter's process warrants a much longer career, and Derek Falvey and Thad Levine's results likewise do the same.