A creative offseason.

Back in the pandemic days, I was still writing in a more corporate blog environment, and I got a copy of Out of the Park 21, which I used to simulate the season that we lost. That old site pretty much burned all my old posts after I declined their generous offer of "only write about facts or gambling, or else" but I still have that copy of OOTP 21 (the Twins made it to the playoffs, and were swept by Tampa).

I had heard rumors about the evolution engine in the historical game play, and I was fascinated. I created 16 teams and placed them in random cities and have just been simulating, trying to see what would happen. For about 60 fake baseball seasons, the league expanded every once in a while, but it didn't see any teams relocate, which I thought was a little strange.

Then, I realized I didn't set the financials of the league to advance with time, or to carry over year to year, so I adjusted those, and completely throttled the league, because now, every team had a budget from one year, and salaries were about to match those of 60 years later. Free agents were not getting signed, and it was going to take time for all these teams to work their way up to viability.

And then, right in the midst of this slow transition, the league expanded, and two teams were added. These two teams didn't have the weight of the previous financial expectations built into their budget, and were basically shopping in the free agency market by themselves. For two seasons, now, these two teams have signed every free agent that has been signed. Every one of them.

For me, that is a perfect analogy to MLB if, say, the regional sports network model collapsed, and a certain subset didn't have the revenue stream they had had, and others in the league were unimpacted and able to spend, virtually unchecked.

Oh, that's exactly what happened! The Twins will have to set out of free agency, for the most part, as will other teams that lost the RSN revenue. With more teams looking to conserve payroll, the market for free agents is going to be severely restricted. And if that's the case, who is going to be out there taking on contracts? Some teams will be trying to cut payroll themselves, and others will be filling up on their own free agents, rather than trading for help.

Who is providing salary relief? The story of the Twins thee last couple of weeks is that they need to trim payroll before they add more players, but I haven't seen anyone ask if that's even possible, given the way the financial gulf between teams is right now. The Twins have said they will need to be creative to make their payroll work in 2025. Part of the creativity will involve finding any partner willing to make it work.

First base, a mystery, an opportunity

 If you ask 5 different fans, you'll see 5 different opinions on where the Twins should seek to improve their roster for 2025. A lot of this has to to with the with the limit budget. By necessity, the team will have to prioritize, rather than addressing all of their holes, so which spot is the most important? 

Both Carlos Santana's well deserved Gold Glove and Alex Kirilloff's undeserved injury driven retirement brought mor attention first base. and how the Twins are going to fill that spot. usually relied on for a boost of steady offense, and commonly used to hide poor defenders. The Twins, historically, have had good defenders at first, from Hrbek to Mientkiewicz to Morneau and Mauer, and now Carlos Santana. Kirilloff was poised to be one of those players the Twins would try to hid, in part because of bad defense, but also because injuries were already slowing him down.

Santana and Kirilloff departing in one fell swoop opens an amorphous hole that could be filled in a number of ways. They could bring back Santana, and hope for more defensive wizardry, and to continue the relationships he built with the team. This is a good chance, though, to address a glaring weakness the team had down the stretch: reliable production.

The Twins don't need a superstar hitter, they just need a professional hitter, that can steady the team in rougher spots. And the beauty of it is, all they need is hitter, they don't necessarily need a hitting first baseman. Willi Castro, Edouard Julien or Jose Miranda can be shuffled, with any of them playing an infield spot up to and including first base. 

That's why I described the hole as amorphous. It's not a difficult hole to fill. It can be filled by a lot of different players. I'll give one example of a free agent outside of MLB Trade Rumor's top 50. Randall Grichuk is not a first baseman, but fits the bill as a veteran bat. He is a right handed hitter that has played both corner outfield positions in recent years after starting in center field. This would force Castro into the infield, where he i a better fielder than Miranda or Julien at their chosen position. Either could move to first base, and problems begin to be solved.

Grichuk has a career average of .250, and a bit of pop in his bat. While he had a terrific year for Arizona this year, he did it at 1.5m, and while he will be getting a raise, at his age 33 season, it won't be substantial. Especially after the Twins pare their payroll a little bit, Grichuk, or one of the many other bat forward free agents, will be affordable, and will help flesh out the necessary depth for a long season.

The biggest hole is at first base, but that hole can be filled without adding a first baseman. 

Twins hurtle into the offseason

 I don't know if I remember the offseason starting as hot as this years has. It's not like the Twins have done a lot, or undertaken some major moves, but there have certainly been a lot of decisions at the beginning of the long winter, and some other news that will help to define the course the team will take.

The first bit of news was Thad Levine's departure, but the biggest thunderbolt was the news that the Pohlad family will bee looking to sell the Twins. The news has been met with positivity, however there is still no buyer known to be in place. In the mean time, the cheap Pohlads, with a reduced TV contract are still in place, and now, they will feel no consequences for jilting their fans.

We've been told that the Twins will be able to expect a similar payroll versus last year, but I am not optimistic that that will be matched. 

Of course, there is no signal of that yet, just a bunch of small moves that will presage what could be an active offseason. Derek Falvey, undoubtedly will be pulling all the levers available in order to put together the best roster he can, and at the beginning of every offseason, the first move is clearing out some peripheral players who may not be as productive as their salary would foretell. 

Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot were not retained, while Max Kepler, Carlos Santana and Caleb Thielbar are free agents. Most surprisingly, Alex Kirilloff decided to retire, after a short career plagued by persistent injuries. The team did decide to retain Jorge Alcala, by picking up his $1.5m option. The next step will be arbitration hearings and agreements, and then we will be off to the races. 

There will be an imperative to reduce payroll and I'm sure that Chris Paddack and Christian Vazquez are on the top of most lists, which leads me to believe that payroll is going to remain unchanged. Neither Paddack nor Vazquez stand to bring back much in return, and still retain some value for the organization. The Twins would likely have to eat salary, which defeats the purpose, or pair a prospect in order to simply offload the player, which then weakens the farm, which is likely where the Twins need to build from, all while getting nothing back but salary room and another hole.

Minnesota fans are often hung up on free agency, and will lament the teams' likely inability to be active in the market this year, but it's not an efficient use of limited resources. A million here or there might add depth, but a team like the Twins isn't going to fill major holes with superstars very often. Carlos Correa stands as a glaring exception, and even now, both he and Byron Buxton took discounts to re-sign with the organization. The Twins aren't going to pay market rate for a difference maker.

Derek Falvey is likely hoping for a job with the team even after the Pohlads are gone. The best way to secure that is with young talent that will outlive the Pohlad regime. While there is certainly plenty already on the payroll, I would expect any moves to improve the team to involved pure baseball moves. Prospects for prospects, or young major leaguers going one way or another. The current salaries won't bother the Pohlads, and the increasing salary over the years would be someone else's problem.

There has already been quite a bit of shuffling, and it looks like there is going to be a substantial bit of turnover. This may be a chaotic offseason for the Twins, and the flurry of moves from the outset sure sells that opinion. If my instinct is right, that most of the moves are going to be the pure baseball moves I called out, they can take a while. It's busy right now, but that doesn't mean the Twins will be making their big moves any time soon. For the moment, they've certainly been spinning quite a few plates. 

Proof of concept

 

One of the toughest things about college basketball for a stretch of about 20 years was the brevity of the stays in college for the best players. It was hard for schools to build momentum, and the tournament made little sense. The tournament is still a challenge to forecast, but now, teams can build and grow because players are starting to stick around a bit longer. 

The money almost certainly helps. NIL deals get a lot of attention on the football side of it, but they are a boon for basketball players as well. Part of players staying in college involves a high rate of transfers, playing for multiple schools while opportunity and revenue increases along the way. 

Still, whatever money can be made playing college basketball doesn't hold a candle to the riches of the NBA, or even many leagues overseas. For so long, players jumped to the NBA early, and NBA teams often avoided drafting upper classmen, fearing that they wouldn't get better, or there was no "upside" as draft speak goes. 

The thinking seems to be turning around, as teams are starting to realize that college donors can play for a players' development, rather than the team, and having that player spend time deep on their bench. This year, 6 seniors were drafted in the first round. Generally, seniors have been the lottery ticket, selected at the end of the second round, but now, teams are recognizing that they may be able to be inserted into a lineup right away. 

Tonight, Bronny James got the attention for the Lakers, but it was former senior Dalton Knecht who was the first rookie off the bench of LA. College fans will remember Knecht for his sharp shooting at Tennessee, where he ended up after starting at Northern Colorado (that transferring for money and opportunity thing, a prime example). Not many teams are looking for the overall health of the league versus their own success, but having a player with more name recognition as they come into the league is only going to benefit everyone. 

Zach Edey is playing for the Memphis Grizzlies, and is going to start at center. He was the 9th pick in the draft, and everyone who follows basketball knows who he is. He was 2 time player of the year at Purdue, and a force to be reckoned with for the past two years, and totally unrecognizable, save for the 7'4" height, from the player he was as a Freshman. 

The money is a good base to keep players grinding away in college, as is the ability to move more freely from school to school. Now, there is a proof of concept - you can stay in school and still get paid. College basketball is getting it's passion back, and basketball across the country will be better for it. 

The NCAA season starts in less than a week, and the NBA began today.

 No matter your particular affinity for music, hearing about the premature death of a 31 year old father is a tough thing, a hard bit of news. Obviously, there is the family of Liam Payne, as well as his close friends and collaborators to offer condolences to, but he was in the prime of his career. If you were a fan of Payne, especially one who watched him grow up for nearly 20 years, there is likely a sense of loss that is a little deeper for the future is no longer there.
I know of One Direction, and perhaps more than any group, I know the individual members of the group through their other work. Liam Payne in particular dabbled in a field of music I am more interested in, working with hip hop and R&B artists. This led to the sad thought that Quavo has now seen two of his hit making collaborators cut down too soon. First his real life nephew Takeoff, and now Payne.
So I looked to see if Quavo, formerly of the Migos, had any formal statements or public condolences because I am up later than my wife and was a little bit bored. Nothing from Quavo, but I did see other rappers issue statements or social media posts, like Juicy J, Ty Dolla Sign and Flava Flav. Liam Payne was not only someone who worked with these artists, but he was a fan.
I am a 41 year old white dude from Minnesota, and I have been a rap fan for 20+ years, but I was struck by the English kid being a big fan as well. And I know, and am a big fan of English rappers! But this was still quirky to me, and I know it shouldn't be. 
Nevertheless, this post is the result of an internet wormhole I fell in, but in the interests of paying respects to Liam Payne, please enjoy this song, performed by Lol Baby and Central C, rappers from either side of the Atlantic. I presume Payne liked it.

Levine, Popkins, sacrificed to the baseball Gods

 As no doubt long time readers are aware, Minnesota men's sports are cursed. I'm not sure what can be done to break the curse, but it reared its ugly head again for the Twins in 2024. Just when fans of the organization were feeling hopeful, the team slashed payroll, precipitating a chain of events that ended with a disastrous conclusion to the 2024 campaign.

This was an unforced error by the Twins management. If the organization is actively working against the success of the team, that seems to suggest they are in cahoots with the curse, or at the very least seek favor from different baseball gods than those that the fans do. This is obviously the case. The fans look at wins and losses, while the Pohlads wins and losses are in black and red on the ledger.

So yes, fans demanded that there be changes to the organization after a catastrophic end to the year, though the Twins perhaps didn't feel those same pressures. At least, not from a wins and losses stand point. If they did, the changes the organization would have made would have been to the payroll. If you asked many fans, say, those chanting at Target Field, the personnel move they would have preferred was to "Fire Rocco" Baldelli.

But instead, it was the hitting staff, including hitting coach David Popkins, that was let go. Justifiable, certainly, given the offensive collapse and the overall streakiness of the hitters, but maybe not as extensive as some of the more disappointed fans would like. And then there is Thad Levine, also leaving, though the press release seems to indicate it was a mutual decision. I'm not sure there were many people out there saying "boy, Thad Levine is the entire problem, the Twins will be better if he is replaced" but he was an executive, and replacing him is certainly symbolic!

If you haven't figured it out, the gods Levine and Popkins were sacrificed not to the gods of on field fortune, but to the gods of baseball fortune, in the monetary sense. Popkins' firing may mollify some of the fans that still plan on paying for tickets, while Levine didn't hold as much sway as Dave St. Peter or Derek Falvey, the two who kept the budget in check in 2024. 

No word on this will do anything for local curses. 

Grasping at straws

 I'm mad about the end of he Twins season. I am mad about Joe Pohlad's statements, essentially indicating that payroll shouldn't be a determining factor in putting a winning product on the field (despite all evidence to the contrary) and seeming to be unwilling to put any extra investment into the team from a financial standpoint to get through times that are lean for other reasons (Media rights, in this case). Rather than leaning into the momentum of 2023, the organization trembled at the downturn in revenue projections, and subsequently made it worse by pronouncing a reduction in payroll. 

I'm mad because I thought there was a chance that the Twins were making misleading statements, knowing that they were just going to contend with pre-arbitration players, and would necessarily spend less money on players, and would supplement at the deadline if they needed to. That was obviously not the case, and the team instead is doubling down on their unwillingness to increase payroll.

But it's the offseason, and if anything, the last few days have reminded us that it's a blessing to be able to be upset about something as silly as baseball. Yeah, the Twins are a frustrating, spiteful organization, but they also aren't worth a winter's worth of negative energy. That in mind, there is one very dramatic piece of good news.

I was particularly worried, in the face of the various bits of bad news that were tacked upon the end of a bad season that the Twins were going to be happy enough to go into a tailspin for the long term, limiting payroll to operate their business, rather than consuming their minds with winning. Carl Pohlad won a World Series on a 22 million dollar payroll, so dammit, why not do it now?

Obviously, with a mentality like that, anyone that could get out with their reputation intact would go. Dave St. Peter is pretty committed to the Pohlads at this point, but Derek Falvey has a career ahead of him, and by all reports was in a contract year. And Falvey is the Chief Baseball Officer, whereas St. Peter is the one keeping a closer eye on the bank. Falvey is taking the hit to his reputation if things go awry on the field, not so much anyone else. 

And Falvey is staying. 

2024 was a bad year after one of the best in a while, but Derek Falvey, a baseball man as close to the story as anyone could be, isn't giving up on the organization. It might not mean much, but it certainly means something.