A scary trade deadline looms

 Despite what you may have heard about the Twins, they are still in a close race for the American League Central. They haven't been good, and are sitting just below .500 on the season. With the rotation they are trotting out, and some big money locked up in the lineup, the fact that they have a better than 50/50 shot at the post season meants that, without a doubt, at the end of the month, they will be one of the deadline buyers.

Yikes. 

If you look at the scale of trades the current organization has made, deadline sell offs would be #1 in their skill set (think of Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran), while offseason deals would be number two. Deadline acquisitions have been a painful exercise of "be careful what you wish for". So often, Twins fans, myself included, have begged for the Twins to be active at the deadline, to supplement runs to the playoffs. It's impossible to understate how badly this has imploded.

This year, as I have noted, the problem is with the areas they need to supplement. Not only do we have a fairly tragic recent history with deadline deals, but the Twins are in a position to bolster a unit that might as well improve if they can get improved production from prospects that the Twins have been waiting along for some time.

The outfield is the greatest weakness right now for the Twins, but the players I think most fans would like to see on the roster from St. Paul are Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. Do you trust young players to revive a moribund offense? Do you want the team to expend the resources it would take to add a premium bat, knowing the recent history of the front office? Especially if that acquisition means less time for Larnach or Wallner or any other youngster trying to make their way into the league?

The front office has not been afraid to make moves to update the roster, and they have been conscious about areas that need to be addressed. What will they decide needs to be addressed, and what is the best way to do it? The track record tells us that the Twins will make moves that make a ton of sense, and patch holes in an efficient and thoughtful way. The same track record tells us that the move will almost immediately blow up in the Twins' face. 

There is no solution

It's another frustrating season for Twins fans. They started off well, and have proceeded to get worse as the season has dragged on. The summer warm up has not led to an offensive renaissance, and in fact have seen the offensive struggles balloon. Most of Twins Twitter is demanding some sort of change, lamenting the changes that were made in the last year or so and simply calling into question the organization.

The last couple of weeks in particular have been hard to watch. The offense has flailed, the bullpen is showing wear, and the rotation has simply been unable to keep the blistering pace they had early in the season. In past years, the solution out of the team hole was always apparent. Get more pitching.

Now the Twins have pitching, featuring one of the best rotations in baseball, even if they have been a bit over their own heads to this point. The problem is an offense that doesn't score enough to forgive the prodigious amount of strikeouts. The team often looks listless at the plate, and again are finding ways to fall on their face during important moments. 

The roster hasn't had the same injury issues that it did in recent years. The gravest underperformers are relatively healthy players that are not easily replaced. Meanwhile, people you might expect to be to blame are buoying the team. Willi Castro is the most productive Twin by WAR. Joey Gallo has a 110 OPS+, meaning that his productivity is 10% better than league average, despite a sub 200 average and so many strikeouts. 

Players with new contracts, Christian Vazquez and Carlos Correa are having bad starts to the year, though Correa has finally had a bit of life in his bat in patches. Players expected to be building blocks for the future, like Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach haven't been good enough to maintain their spots on the roster, and certainly aren't at the level of what a team would hope for from a corner fielder. 

The offense needs a jump start. We can complain about the bullpen all we want, but a strong bullpen is a luxury that matters only to the very good teams. The Twins aren't very good. But what do you fix on this Twins team that hasn't already been addressed? Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff are getting regular playing time. You can't well take Correa out of the lineup. Really, the only player still getting regular reps that shouldn't be is Max Kepler. If he is dropped, Larnach probably gets the next shot, though Matt Wallner can't be kept at bay much longer.

Even then, the most important thing that needs to happen is that the guys on the roster start getting better results. Players perform to the capabilities we know and expect, and the Twins are suddenly running away with the division. This is the third year in a row that this hasn't been happening, though, and one has to wonder if there is a systemic problem.

The Twins under Rocco Baldelli were at their best when Derek Shelton was the bench coach, James Rowson was the hitting coach and Wes Johnson was the pitching coach. Johnson leaving in the middle of last season was immediately felt, but not having Shelton or Rowson has been a slower burn. The coaching staff now is largely unproven even after a couple of years on the job.

Like I said, though, losing Johnson mid season was only a negative last year, and changing the coaching staff mid stride on a baseball team isn't a great way to improve morale or results. If the Twins can't shake off these doldrums, much like the last two seasons, it will be time to remake Baldelli's bench, up to, and perhaps including Baldelli himself.

But that isn't something to be done now. Right now, there are no fixes, so expect fans to keep getting upset about hypotheticals and living in the past. 

At least these Twins are different

 The thing that plagued the Twins under Terry Ryan was an all encompassing reluctance to ever do anything. They would trust their roster, their development, and wouldn't make the big deadline buys or free agent acquisitions. It drove me nuts. 

The problem was an over-devotion to their prospects, most of whom were pitching prospects, and none of whom were as good as the Twins seemed to believe. Kevin Slowey was rumored to be a part of trade packages nearly every year in the late 00's, and ultimately left for a PTBNL in a forgettable move. For their part, the Twins, after adding Rick Reed and Shannon Stewart at the beginning of the millennium failed to make any significant deals while TR was in town.

Frankly, I would have preferred some deadline excitement, a sign that the Twins were trying to invest in a particular season, over the privilege of seeing Kevin Slowey's entire illustrious career first hand. Bill Smith and Rob Antony in his brief tenure were, at the very least, of average aggression in making moves and taking risks. 

As we in Minnesota are all surely aware right now, the Derek Falvey/Thad Levine tandem are much more aggressive in their roster construction than the Twins have ever seen in their experience. Sure, there has been a change from Carl Pohlad to his clearly more free spending descendants, but even know, Falvey and Levine aren't spending at the highest end of Major League Baseball. What I am saying is, the increase in trade activity is philosophical, and not financial.

The issue with Falvey and Levine right now is that we can lament the players that the Twins lost and suggest that the Twins are now on the wrong path, that standing pat is the right move. Luis Arraez is hitting .400. Spencer Steer and Casey Legumina are part of the Reds roster, and Yennier Cano might be an all star in Baltimore. 

You can gripe about that all you want, but the Twins also traded for Sonny Gray. You can complain about Luis Arraez, but the Twins added Pablo Lopez, a better player than Kevin Slowey ever was, AND added a top ten prospect. In my opinion, at least, it's better to be proactive and fix weaknesses. Title runs are not guaranteed, and teams should try to take advantage of the opportunities.

Of course, the success rate of the 2000s Twins and the 2020s Twins is nearly exactly the same. While the Twins are indeed different in operating style and aggression, they still maintain the very same losing streak in the postseason. It will at least be satisfying to know that this generation of the Twins' bureaucracy will not head closer to the offseason quietly. Unlike Terry Ryan, they will do SOMETHING.

It remains to be seen if it will be effective. 

Smoothing over the rough patches

Is it possible that Willi Castro could be qualified as a Twins prospect? I think, by and large, the Twins view Trevor Larnach as a prospect in the Twins organization. He has been mercurial, and is presently beset by pneumonia, but I think, particularly because of his pedigree, many people still see Larnach's star as blossoming.

After his two home run performance on Saturday, maybe it is worth exploring whether Castro could land in the group of players the team might consider as part of their future. He is young enough, at 2 months younger than Larnach, and frankly, he does have a bit of a history. He's played in the Majors for the past three seasons, even getting a 4th place finish in the race for Rookie of the Year in 2020.

Castro has the positional versatility that the Twins seem to love, and seems to be growing in importance in the league, and is sorting things out with the bat after a couple of quieter seasons. While he is a switch hitter, he is also, more importantly, capable from the right side of the plate, which is less a redundancy for the Twins. 

His emergence are the culmination of two stories that we've covered at length here or everywhere. First is the substantial depth the Twins accrued this offseason. Second is the rapidly filling Injured List, which has necessitated that depth. Willi Castro is probably not ever going to be Trevor Larnach, but it seems that he has likely supplanted Gilberto Celestino in the Twins' plans, and perhaps even Nick Gordon, depending on what the Twins ultimately try to do going forward.

While this season's offensive output has been paltry, it still provides the air of a team that intends to be successful. They are finding areas they can improve at the edges, things that will make the team a little bit better when the post season arrives, and ways to expand their success next season. They are finding away to make the bumps in the road a little bit flatter. 

Another way the Twins are proving that there is commitment is with the latest headlines around Carlos Correa. He was recently diagnosed with plantar fasciitis, an ailment that, from personal experience, is excruciating, and takes a while to heal. The best way to get better is through rest and stretching, but on the cusp of shaking his early season doldrums and getting the team though a bit of a rougher patch, he has continued to play.

He's already signed his big contract, and he is playing through pain, because this is a team that feels can do big things, and they are putting forth the extra effort to get through the tough patches. With the emergence of players like Willi Castro, the next rough patch won't feel so rough. And with this afternoon's announce ment that Royce Lewis and Max Kepler will be returning, the hope is that this rough patch is at its end. 

I am not a conspiracy theorist..... but

 I am absolutely an umpire, referee and official apologist. While we the fans get the benefit of all sorts of camera angles and hindsight, they are tasked with making all the calls from one angle, in the moment. Then, when they invariably get a call wrong once in a while, especially in the collegiate and professional ranks, they get roasted on line, in the street and throughout the media. 

Then, we have the audacity of wondering why we don't have better officials. Is this a job you would want? We should be thankful that we get the ones we get, rather than trying to get rid of all of those that we do have. 

I don't believe for a second that there is an agenda that any official or umpire has against players or teams, simply based on my personal experience. I am a basketball referee, and my goal is simply to call the game consistently and fairly. And that is a goal. I'm not perfect and nobody else is, either. But for the most part, everyone is trying. 

But man, Phil Cuzzi. Every Twins fan remembers his name from a certain "foul ball" in the playoffs, and frankly, after Monday night's game in Los Angeles, you are well within your rights to think that he has something against the Twins.

Welcome to the Phil Cuzzi show pic.twitter.com/0Edd9mm6bq

— CJ Fogler account may or may not be notable (@cjzero) May 16, 2023

Terrible miss on a fair/foul call by Phil Cuzzi and there will be zero consequences for it. @MLBUA get it together.

pic.twitter.com/C9Bw6l35RP

— Tarun Sharma (@tksharmalaw) May 16, 2023

Amazing that they won last night, isn't it?

The Twins are in an offensive funk

 

Did you know that the Twins have the second lowest batting average in all of baseball? Yikes! There is justifiable criticism of the way Carlos Correa has started the season. It's not the way you want to impress upon a team after signing a team record contract. His average has been sight, and he's never been an on base machine, nor a pure slugger, so his overall value has been limited. 

You might be tempted to look at Joey Gallo as a problem as well, but Gallo has always seen his average founder around .200. He's always paired it with a decent enough walk rate, and an outrageous power production. Even with an average below .200, his SLG is well over .500. That's the Joey Gallo you expect, and the one the Twins were counting on. Pair that with his slick glove at first, there are likely no complaints.

One thing that the two free agent signees have in common, however, is a thing that has been plaguing the entire Twins team. Not only have the Twins had the second lowest batting average, they've also had the second lowest batting average on balls in play. Gallo's is down about 40 points to no ill effect, but Correa's is down 130 points compared to last year. 

Correa's average feeds lustily upon his line drive rate. He's getting under balls a little bit, which accounts for some of the drop in average, Bad luck accounts for the rest. His walk and strike out rate aren't far off from normal. It should just be a minor adjustment to get Correa back on track, and his batted balls finding the gaps and running to the corners. 

The Twins have some growing to do, and some minor adjustments across the board. By my eye, this run of shoddy offense isn't going to last. And by shoddy offense, I mean specifically their low batting average. They are closer to the middle of the pack in runs scored and wOBA, a measure of tru offensive output. 

Furthermore, even if batting average was the total summation of a team's offensive prowess, the Twins, even in this godawful funk to start the season, are still in first place. 

Sophomore slumps

Despite a rough patch against Boston, Washington, the Twins remain a couple of games above .500. The problem, for once, hasn't been the pitching. There were a few rough bullpen outings, but the flaw they exposed was a fairly ineffective offense. Games were easily blown because the Twins are only scoring a couple of runs a game.

The finale of the Nationals series, and a series win against the Yankees may, and hopefully will render this column moot, but the sticking point for the Twins has been some notably foul offensive performances from players getting their second full run with the Twins. The worst offender has been Nick Gordon, who succeeded when leaned upon heavily last season. This season, he's been pushed out of the daily lineup because he has been so ineffective. This is technically Gordon's third season on the Major League roster, but I'll count this as a follow up to his breakout. It works!

Someone truly in their second year, and someone heavily relied upon to be an anchor at the middle of the lineup is Jose Miranda. Miranda concluded the series with the Yankees well, going 2-3 with 2 home runs in the loss. Unfortunately, those were Miranda's first home runs of the season. He had 4 hits to conclude the series with the Nationals, but before that series started, his OPS was .511. Event with a good stretch concluding with a 2 home run game, his OPS is finally above .600. Not great for a corner infielder.

The most prominent player in his second season with the Twins is Carlos Correa. His season is doubly problematic, because of the expectations tied to his team record contract. Correa started slowly last season as well, only to finish very strong, so this is an episode we have seen before. This year, Correa's OPS is lower than Miranda's, with an average right at the Mendoza line. Correa, at least, has the pedigree to lend some faith that he will bounce back. 

Correia will continue to get chances. He has a 6 year deal that explains why. It seems like Miranda will continue to play his way through his funk as well, The Twins made a move that said that, for at least a year or two, third base is definitely his. Cincinnati Reds third baseman Spencer Steer was part of the package sent for Tyler Mahle at the deadline last year. He would be in Minnesota, were it not for Miranda. If Miranda can't iron things out, however, he has only until Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis push him off the roster.

The most tenuous spot on the roster belongs to Nick Gordon. He hasn't been able to crack the lineup in order to work his way through his current issues. He is presently not getting into the lineup to break out of his slump, and might only last as long as Kyle Farmer's IL stint. After his breakout last year, he likely has a future in the league, even if he has a short leash with the Twins.