Twins trade Luis Arraez to Miami, and nobody is happy about it

 

A few days ago, rumors started floating around about a Pablo Lopez trade for the Twins. There were rumors that the Marlins ask was for Luis Arraez, and there was an immediate outcry. The rumors indicated it would be a bigger trade than just those two, and the expectation was that Arraez would lead a package heading to Miami for Lopez. Baseball trade values has come in vogue of late, and Lopez was more "valuable" than Arraez, by there metric.

So then today, when it came out that instead of Arraez being part of a package for Lopez, Lopez was part of a package for Arraez? I'll just come out and say it, the Twins made a heck of a deal, and it would be tough to dissuade me otherwise. And I love Luis Arraez. There are a lot of Twins fans out there that would strongly disagree with me.

Luis Arraez won the batting title, yes. He's a very likeable guy with an infectious personality, yes. But that's about the extent of his value above a replacement player. He doesn't hit for power, doesn't play the field particularly well, and isn't fast. He is a one, albeit exceptional, tool player. That exceptional tool raised his perception, but the reality is that his season WAR slotted just below that of Cedric Mullins. 

So Arraez was a very popular Twin, and I get that. That's why the organization held out and absolutely fleeced the Marlins. Lopez alone would have been a reasonable trade for Arraez, using the Baseball Trade Values metric, and perhaps even an overpay from Miami's standpoint. And then, the Marlins threw in two prospects! Jose Salas is a 19 year old that is likely to move over to third base at some point, and offers the potential for a decent bat and power. Byron Chourio is a 17 year old lottery ticket, but you can never have too many Byrons.

Lopez has been a steady, solid presence in the Marlins rotation for a few years, and should be counted on to provide at least #3 starter quality, and is young enough that improvement seems strongly probable. There is nothing creative about the rotation this year. The front office isn't going to try to go with guys to get through the lineup twice and move to the bullpen, or stack pitchers (say, two pitchers going 4 innings), they are just going to run 5 pretty good starters, regularly. Bailey Ober moves to the long relief role, where he is overqualified, and Alex Kirilloff can be comfortable in a regular position as first baseman.

Max Kepler is more likely to open the season with the Twins, with Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo forming one of the best defensive outfields in the league, keeping things warm for Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. The middle infield now has Carlos Correa (holy crap! they reupped with Correa!) for at least 6 years, but Jorge Polanco is expected to explore free agency, allowing 2nd to fall to Royce Lewis, Austin Martin or now Salas, perhaps, in a few years. The rotation, full of question marks next year, now can lean on Lopez, Ober, Joe Ryan and Chris Paddack (holy crap! They reupped with Paddack!) 

I will miss watching Arraez in a Twins uniform, and I will enjoy watching the Marlins whenever I see them, particularly because of Arraez. But this was a slam dunk for Minnesota. 

A quarterback of the future

 I've got a little more skin in the game for this spring's NFL draft than I have in a while. The Colts were, as we all know, a walking disaster for the better part of the season, notably after Frank Reich was terminated because Jim Irsay was in a mood. They cratered the rest of the season, suffering embarrassing losses, like the biggest comeback in NFL history against the Vikings and losing the finally to the Houston Texans, which got them out of the top spot in the draft.

Ah, back to the draft.

One thing that is reassuring about the Colts, is that since 1998, they haven't missed on a top 10 draft pick. Peyton Manning and Edgerrin James are in the Hall of Fame. Andrew Luck was pretty good before his decision to retire. Quenton Nelson is one of the best offensive linemen to playing now, and perhaps is on his way to a Hall of Fame career as well. This spring, the Colts will have the 4th pick, and frankly, I'm not worried about them screwing it up.

The Colts need a quarterback, and there are three top options, and among those three, there is a definite top two, Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's CJ Stroud. The Bears have the first pick, and a quarterback in Justin Fields that is likely good enough to continue building around. The 2nd pick is Houston's, and they will draft a quarterback, almost certainly. The Cardinals are the third pick, and Kyler Murray is under contract for a lot of money years. Arizona is not picking a quarterback.

Both the Bears and Cardinals are going to look to trade out of their picks, particularly if Indianapolis stays at 4. With that in mind, I think the Colts will be compelled to move up to number 1, taking the Bears pick. The Colts will have the equity to trade, and the Bears will appreciate the opportunity to build out a young roster around Fields.

What is important here is that Indianapolis will have their choice of quarterback, selecting between Young and Stroud. The consensus seems to be gravitating towards Young, but by traditional evaluations, I don't fully comprehend why that would be the case. 

Alabama quarterbacks haven't translated their success to the NFL level since Joe Namath, though Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones are trying to turn the opinion around (and of course Jalen Hurts, but he transferred to Oklahoma before he came into the League). Physically, teams have preferred bigger players to play quarterback, and Stroud is 5 inches taller than Young, who will be the shortest NFL starter when he gets drafted, tied with Murray (who missed the last part of the season to injury) at 5'10.

Stroud has a bigger arm, though both are just as accurate, according to Chris Trapasso's evaluation of the two. Young gets marks for his mobility, though it is labeled as less than Murray's. In the NCAA Semi final, Stroud proved he had plenty of athletic ability, so the gulf is likely not as great as has been described. Also, with Stroud's size, it stands to reason that he will be more durable through his career. 

If my intuition is close to accurate, than CJ Stroud is the correct pick for the Colts. That said, the Colts have a long enough track record of draft success that I'm not panicked about whatever direction they choose to take.

Now, the coaching hire? I'm scared. 

The 2022 Twins, unloved and unwanted

 You can say all you want about the Twins offseason, and many people have, and I've  certainly done the same. The Twins just haven't been as active as pundits expected. Of course, the Twins have a long history of patience. An aggravating level of patience, followed by a whirlwind of activity right before the spring training convenes.

So, OK, the Twins usually wait out the offseason, and they have made a couple of moves, swapping Gio Urshela and Kyle Farmer in different moves, and signing Christian Vasquez and Joey Gallo, but do you know what is strange? Urshela is one of only two 2022 Twins to find a new team for 2023. I mean, Carlos Correa found two, but he hasn't officially signed anywhere yet.

The one other guy that has signed elsewhere is late season outfielder Billy Hamilton, who will be in the White Sox system next year. Minnesota also re-signed Danny Coulombe, but otherwise, none of the players listed as free agents have landed anywhere. Not Gary Sanchez, or Miguel Sano. Not Michael Fulmer or Dylan Bundy. 

And then there was that glut of outfielders that the Twins were expected to deal from. Guess what? They are all still there, glutting around in the depth chart. I have heard everyone with an interest in the Twins register their dismay with the players on last year's roster. The incredible lack of interest in those players by the rest of the league seems to confirm the negative aura sensed by the fans. 

Except Billy Hamilton. That guy's great. 

Predictions for the new year('s first month)

Last year proved to me that anything can happen. The Twins came out strong when they were healthy, then they got hurt all over the roster, saw their pitching coach depart, and losses mounted late in the season. After a huge offseason, which I loved, the team got off to a strong start, then imploded, and now there is a sizeable contingent of fans and bloggers that think the front office should lose their job.

So I don't have any idea what will happen for the Twins this season, but independent of the actual game on the field, I feel as though I am starting to get a feel for the front office. January and February are when they like to get moving, and I have three specific predictions for things that the Twins will due before the season gets going.

1) The Twins trade Max Kepler to the Marlins, for infielder Joey Wendle, Reliver Dylan Floro and wild card prospect Antony Peguero.  The Twins are known to have a surplus of left handed outfield bats, and the Marlins are looking to move pitching for offensive help. Kepler wouldn't net one of the top starters in the Marlins rotation, but this would patch a few holes in the roster. Wendle is a Swiss army knife, and would specifically add a right handed compliment in the corner outfield of anywhere in the infield. Floro, a veteran, is currently projected to serve as the closer for the Marlins, but would effectively work middle and late innings in the Twins bullpen. Peguero is very young, and could go anywhere, but currently rates as Miami's 21st rated prospect.

2) The Twins trade Emilio Pagan to the Cubs for minor league prospect Denis Correa. The Twins get Correa after all! This move comes after the Twins add two players to the 40 man roster, above, and move to DFA Pagan. The Cubs sweep in and nab him, the next team to try and fix Pagan.

3) The Twins will still have a bunch of Financial Flexibility. The free agent market has been picked over, so instead, they will look to extend players (Luis Arraez makes some sense, but maybe even Joe Ryan), so the Twins are capable of taking on payroll.  In a killer "win now" move, the Twins trade Randy Dobnak to the Red Sox for Chris Sale and Nick Yorke. The Twins will need to add something to get the trade to happen, which results in Dobnak's inclusion. The Red Sox would kick in cash to cover any compensation that Sale would demand to waive his no trade protections, but this is otherwise a prospect by for the Twins. Yorke is a middle infield prospect who is regarded for his bat. Not due to the majors for a few years, he would be a logical choice to supplant Jorge Polanco in a few years. In the mean time, if Sale is healthy, he is the true ace that so many fans have wanted for so long. 

After all that, the Twins would have a low floor, high upside rotation featuring Sale, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Joe Ryan, with Baily Ober for immediate depth. The would include Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Floro, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran and Trevor Megill.

The lineup would feature Christian Vasquez at catcher, an enticing person for Sale, in order to get him to wave a NTC, Luis Arraez at 1b, Polanco at 2b, Kyle Farmer and Joey Wendle at SS, Jose Miranda at 3b, and an outfield of Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton and Trevor Larnach, with Alex Kirilloff DH'ing. The bench, in this scenario, features Wendle, Nick Gordon, Ryan Jeffers and Kyle Garlick.

The Twins will make a couple of telegraphed moves, but should have at least one big swing left in them as well. It's probably going to end up exactly like this, but if its different, expect a few bits of roster shuffling, and at least one big swing. Let's hope it doesn't miss.