Opener Delayed.... more time for deals!

 

I've been high on Chris Paddack for a while, and thought that the Twins and Padres could match up on a deal. I've thought that for years. This morning, that came to fruition, not at all in a way I expected. The Twins will acquire Paddack, reliever Emilio Pagan and a PTBNL for Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker and cash in a pre-opener deal.

As with a couple of deals the Twins made this year, a lot of fans are focused on what the team gave up. It may not seem like it, because we recognize the name, but ultimately, it may be "not much". Taylor Rogers is coming off a hand injury, and he hasn't worked since that nick. How will he bounce back? That question is open ended, in his last year of his contract, which he was unlikely to renew with the Twins. If Rogers stumbles out of the gate, or if he never really bounces back (and closers are mercurial like that), then the Twins may have given up a few months of a mediocre pitcher for two guys that are more likely to contribute this season. 

Both players the Twins acquired were brilliant in 2019, but have struggled in the last two seasons. Who among us hasn't. Pagan was a lights out reliever for the Rays, but has subsequently bounced from team to team before landing with the Padres last season. He will be a fairly reliable arm out of the bullpen, and has a good slider which certainly makes Wes Johnson salivate. The Twins aren't likely to lean on one pitcher to close, which means getting a somewhat trustworthy pitcher is a welcome return.

Of course, I'm publishing this post the night after the Twins had their first blown save. It's important not to lean on one result and project it over the course of the season, especially when the Twins have only scored 4 runs in two games. If anything, my take away is that the starting pitching (and the middle relief) has been strong enough to keep the team in games, even as the offense has scuffled so far.

Paddack is no ordinary starter, either. In 2019, he came onto the scene as one of the most explosive young starters in all of baseball, despite bouncing back from Tommy John surgery. He has a brilliant changeup, something Twins fans who remember Johan Santana may appreciate, as well as a mid-90s fastball. He is coming to a breaking ball guru in Wes Johnson, and surely, the Twins think they can help him develop the third pitch that will make him unhittable. 

On Wednesday, when Paddack takes the mound, we will begin to see how valuable this trade is. Sure, you can lament the one rough inning from Tyler Duffey, but remember that Paddack is going to keep the Twins in games, 5,6,7 innings at a time, potentially for a few years, all while he is getting even better. Good rotations make good closers, and the Twins made an aggressive move to improve their group of starters. 

If you watched the introductions on the season opener, it sure looked like Paddack was happy to be here. In time, we will all be happy he (and maybe even Emilio Pagan) are here, too.

Archer rounds out the rotation

(New Twin Chris Archer has an exchange of ideas with former Twin Eddie Rosario: https://www.mlb.com/video/rays-twins-benches-clear-c2273059183) 
 

The Twins finally got their man! The Twins have been tied to former Ray and Pirate Chris Archer since 2018, when Archer as coming off of a couple of All Star appearances, and was a sought after target for all of Major League Baseball. The Rays wanted Max Kepler as part of a trade, and eventually dealt him to the Pirates for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz, all of whom are now important elements of the Rays roster. Now that the Twins have signed Archer for a mere $3.5m, it seems like Minnesota got a bargain!

Of course, Archer is coming off of a couple of years fraught with injury. He played only one season with the Pirates before sitting out in 2020 with thoracic outlet syndrome. His 2021 return to Tampa was bogged down thanks to forearm tightness that severely shortened his season. Archer is now 33, and clearly damaged goods. 

Fortunately for all parties, each of these injuries are not career enders, and assuming what, exactly "forearm tightness" entails, Archer could be a prime candidate to bounce back. Surely, this is behind the rationale of signing Archer as opposed to Johnny Cueto, the other big named veteran still on the market. Cueto has less tread on his tires at this point, and a longer recent resume suggests that there isn't much more to expect out of him than the nearly 5.00 ERA he has put together in each of the last 3 years. There is a potential to be better from Archer.

Earlier today, Derek Falvey suggested that the Twins would be done making significant changes to the roster, owing to the proximity of opening day. 

While Derek Falvey said they would stay open-minded to the possibility of a trade for a starting pitcher, it sounds as if a trade is unlikely.

Falvey on the rotation: "It’s just at this late stage as we approach Opening Day, it feels like the group is probably in this room."

— Betsy Helfand (@betsyhelfand) March 29, 2022

This could, of course, be subterfuge, and the Twins might yet be interested in making a trade for one of the big two starters out of Oakland, but it might not be, either.

The Twins front office was hired on the promise they would develop a strong pipeline of pitching. We are all left with a lot of question marks, thanks to two very unusual seasons, consecutively, thanks to a season off and one marred by an excess of injuries. The organization has a better read on the pitching development than game logs or scouting reports, primarily because neither really exist for Twins prospects in the past couple of seasons.

On the surface, the Twins look like they need another pitcher to fill out the rotation confidently, This front office has shown an ability to avoid getting taken advantage of on the trade market, and are certainly avoiding paying a premium for another pitcher right now. They also are likely to put added value on the prospects in the system, which are probably closer to ready than anyone else knows for sure. 

It sure seems like Archer will be the last notable name added to the starting pitching pool. The Twins will hope to get the most out of him while they can, confident that they have young arms to backstop Archer should he falter, and the rest of the rotation. Looking at the high minors set of pitchers the Twins have, it seems unlikely that the Twins will feel compelled to make a trade for another starter unless things start going wrong with a lot of different players. Something might come along, too good to pass up, but right now, it feels like we should take Falvey at his word. Chris Archer will complete the Twins' starting rotation.

The Twins return to Rhino and Compass with blazing intensity

I thought that I had a whole lot to talk about when I got back from my vacation last week, after the Twins had moved swiftly out of the lockout to trade for Sonny Gray and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and then kicked it up a notch on the intensity meter hours before my flight, dealing Kiner-Falefa, Josh Donaldson and Ben Rortvedt to the Yankees for Giovany Urshela and Gary Sanchez. Wow. 

And then they signed Carlos Correa. There is a lot to talk about, so let's try to talk about all of it. 

All the moves the Twins made definitely made a good bit of sense, especially as they happened. Initially, they made a move for a shortstop they needed. Despite some sentiment about Mitch Garver and his value, he also doesn't have a long, consistent track record, thanks to some durability issues, and he is already on the wrong side of thirty. Ryan Jeffers is younger, and had a good debut, and Ben Rortvedt is a solid defensive backstop, so the Twins dealt from strength to get a need. Because of his value, Garver netted the Twins a starting shortstop and a pitching prospect who is now in the top 20 in the Twins organization. It was a solid move, and an indication that the Twins were earnest in their expectation of contention this season. Now that the teams had expressed their confidence in Jeffers at catcher, and secured a shortstop in Kiner-Falefa, it was time to grab a pitcher. 

So that they did, trading for Sonny Gray, a long time target, and now a former Cincinnati Red. They traded last year's first round pick Chase Petty for Gray and a prospect. Petty never really had the profile of a typical Falvey/Levine prospect, but he did have raw ability. It makes sense that the Twins designated him as a trade chip, as opposed to an arm for the future. They grabbed Gray, who has a similar profile to Jose Berrios, which leaves many to speculate as to why Berrios was given away in the first place. 

The move for Gray seems to illustrate what the front office said at the time Berrios was traded to Toronto. The Twins were blown away by the offer. Consider, the Twins received players who are now their #2 and #4 prospects, according to MLBPipeline. They traded away the player that became #5 for the Reds, and the Twins even pulled back a different prospect of their own. Berrios was traded because Toronto's offer was too good to refuse. The Twins replaced Berrios at a cost that was lower than what they received when he was traded away. The Twins had a pitcher and a shortstop, and they were in business

And then, like a thunderbolt, the Twins and Yankees matched up for an enormous trade, which sent away that new shortstop with the primary intent of also removing the cost commitment of Josh Donaldson. To make everything work, they also dealt Rortvedt, but received change of scenery candidate Gary Sanchez and glove forward third baseman Giovany Urshela. Sanchez is famous for his bat, and he will DH often because of that, but isn't much behind the plate. He's struggled in the last few years, but his first few seasons saw him hit over 30 home runs twice. He won't be the every day catcher in Minnesota, but at least 20 home runs should be anticipated. Sanchez is only on the books this season, but it should be noted that he is younger than Garver. 

Urshela will be here for a couple of years, barring a trade. He isn't the offensive force that a team hopes for from the hot corner, but he is competent enough to hit in the high .200s (he hit over .300 in 2019) with about a dozen home runs. He will  be good with the glove over at third as well, which is something the Twins valued about Donaldson. For the production the Twins received from Donaldson, this perhaps isn't going to end up being as big a step down as it appears at first. 

But still, Sanchez and Urshela have their obvious flaws, but the real win for the Twins was getting Donaldson's salary off the books. Everyone expected a big move was coming, and yes, it did.

Of course, everyone was thinking the Twins would add Trevor Story, but instead, they grabbed the top free agent on the board, signing Carlos Correa to a mutually beneficial three year deal with two opt out years. 

Correa was drafted one spot ahead of Byron Buxton, and has played in more playoff games than the entire Twins organization, ever. He is a highly skilled defender and a good offensive player, who, altogether, will amass about 5 wins above replacement this season. If he doesn't, then he might take another crack at it in a Twins uniform. If he does, then that is awesome. He might leave, but Royce Lewis and Austin Martin would be right there, ready to take over. 

The Twins might still want to add more pitching, but it is unlikely that there is a deal as nice as the Sonny Gray deal on the table for Minnesota for a starter. There might be some more relievers invited to camp. Even if nothing else happens, this has still been a whirlwind of roster building. 

Things are returning to normal

 These last few weeks have been incredible. The NCAA Tournament is starting, and we are all getting to enjoy the frantic nature of the opening of the NFL markets. Even baseball settled their grievances, and the offseason is resuming at a breakneck pace. In the greatest surprise, both teams favored by yours truly, the Colts and the Twins, have grabbed some of the biggest headlines of the era. The Colts traded their quarterback, Carson Wentz, to Washington, while the Twins... Wow.

Another thing that is bounding back to normal, or perhaps as a throwback, is that I am going to be an independent blogger once again. After bouncing from an association with Yardbarker, followed by time at The Sports Daily, I have discovered that I mostly just enjoy writing for myself, and for those closest to me. I'm not looking for a career in journalism, and I'm not relying on blogging to make money, so why not try to enjoy it? Anyways, here I am, back on Blogger.

You will probably see a few ads pop up here and there. I'm not relying on this to make money, but if I do every once in a while... Nice! 

I'm mostly going to be writing about the Twins, but there will certainly be the miscellaneous other stuff thrown in every once in a while. I'm pretty committed to going to at least one of my Following the Compass games (looking like UNC at Appalachian State in September), and the weird stuff like that isn't changing. I am going to stick with the Rhino and Compass name, because it fits my Twitter name, and made that cute logo on the top of the page.

Another thing that is bouncing back is vacations. I am currently writing this in Costa Rica. My wife is sleeping, and I don't know what to do with myself. More regular posting will return when I return to the US. I hope to see you then.

Vikings fans are asking the wrong question

 The Vikings had three names that were under fire when their disappointing season came to an end. General Manager Rick Spielman and head coach Mike Zimmer were let go, but quarterback Kirk Cousins remains. It's hard to argue that it was time for a refresh to the leadership for the organization (my picks would be Monti Ossenfort for GM, Eric Bienemy as head coach, if you were interested), leaving the status of Kirk Cousins up in the air, and up for debate. 

I was wrong about Cousins before he signed here. He's been a very productive quarterback, and has proven more impressive in tight situations than I ever believed he would be. Many people are asking "who would be better than Kirk Cousins?" Next year, there aren't any better options than Cousins that could be had. But that's just for next season. The real question should be "is Kirk Cousins going to be the quarterback for the next good Vikings team?"

I think the answer to that is probably not. While the team has some very good piece on offense. they also have a defense that completely fell apart last season, and an offensive line that renders their skill position players useless. They aren't far off, not at all, but Cousins' contract expires after next season, and by that point, he will be in his mid-30s. If the O-Line isn't sorted out this offseason (unlikely) he will be bruised and battered as well. Another long term investment might be possible, but carries more risk. 

Cousins contract, though, might compel the Vikings into an extension, if for no other reason than the soften his cap hit. The good news, however, is that this would make him a more appealing asset for a team angling for wins in 2022. For the next winning Vikings team, the best value Cousins may deliver to the Vikings is in the form of picks they can use to revitalize the defense and give Garret Bradbury and Christian Darrisaw linemates for the next half decade. 

While the quarterback pool in this draft class is pretty shallow, a look at Matt Corral would be good, in my opinion, but also, if Cousins is moved for additional draft picks, they could bide their time and wait for a more bountiful crop in the 2023 draft. Not tanking, mind you, because they should have excess picks from a Cousins trade, but patience. And heck, maybe Kellen Mond, or a reunion with Teddy Bridgewater is a revelation, and those picks could be used on other holes, or Mond could be traded for more picks. If not, they have a better pick to work with of their own.

But none of this happens if Cousins stays. The Vikings weren't good enough this year, and a simple swap of the coach and GM isn't going to change their fortunes, especially not without a new approach to the franchise. The best version of the 2022 Vikings probably has to include Kirk Cousins. Beyond that? For long term success, the Vikings will have to do it without Cousins. 

Iowa working to challenge perceptions

 

The University of Iowa's women's team has been very good for several years now. They were lead by one of the best front courts in the game, and by serviceable guards. This year and last, however, they have had one of the most dynamic players in the country, guard and local product Caitlin Clark. While Iowa is still good, they aren't the team of four or 5 years ago.

It often seems that having one really good player can steer the fortunes of a college basketball team. I call it the Carmelo Anthony principle. Syracuse consistently failed to break through, but finally shook the label of an underperforming team that failed in the clutch when they had the best college player in the country. They had been good before, but they were the cream of the crop when they had Anthony.  

And that's generally been my impression of college basketball. It's nice to have a well rounded roster, but to be truly successful, it's absolutely vital to have the single best player on the court. Carmelo Anthony, Michael Jordan, Britney Griner, whomever it may be. When you reach a certain level, the best players are transcendent.

Clark is that player. She is one of the top players in the country, and has the accolades to prove it. She was an All-America player in her freshman year, and was co-Freshman of the Year with Connecticut's Paige Bueckers last season. This season, she is really coming into her own, but the Hawkeyes are less impressive. 

They have been blowing out lesser opponents, as good teams should, but they've yet to claim a victory to hang their hats on. They were soundly beaten by Duke in the ACC/Big Ten challenge, and were handled by their in state rival Iowa State, in the only game they've had with a ranked opponent. Most troublingly, they recently lost at home to IUPUI. Yikes.

That game and the box score gives a pretty good insight into the team though. Clark was ice cold in the game. She was 6-16 shooting, and 1-7 from behind the arc. Monika Czninano was effective inside, but beyond those two, there was nobody else capable of stepping up. Worse still, their Horizon League opponent was able to put up 74 points on their Big Ten foes. 

Rebounding was nearly equal, so the poor shooting was not overcome. IUPUI didn't shoot well either, but they were able to get some more shots from behind the arc to go down. Iowa didn't have anywhere to go but Clark, and when she had an off night, her teammates weren't able to compensate, in any facet of the game.

For anyone, like me, who sees a star player, and is convinced their team is destined for greatness should look at these Hawkeyes and be reminded that there are 5 players on the court, and everyone needs to pull their own weight.

Merry Christmas

 For about 5 years in a row now, we keep saying "next year can't get any worse" and then somehow it does, or it seems like it. Maybe it's recency bias. Whatever the case, I think the silver lining is that this holiday season, smart families are now fully vaccinated, and feel more comfortable spending time together. Stupid families had now concern whatsoever to begin with, of course, but at least now, a greater number of us are enjoying the holidays with loved ones. 

In that regard, 2021 has something that 2020 didn't. It was flat end to a bad year, but this year, as we approach the end of 2021, at least will end on a high note, just try to avoid politics with your family, even if politics is everything these days. 

Merry Christmas to you and yours, and here's to 2022. May it break the trend.