Grasping at straws

 There is a lot riding on the Twins this offseason. While there are other big names in the market, the Twins might have two of the biggest names, in Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez. If you read many national and some local writers, and especially fans of a popular Twins forum, those two are as good as gone, and the Twins are in a race to the bottom. 

They will take Byron Buxton's comments that he might reconsider his stance - long term loyalty to the Twins - if the tear down continues as evidence that the roster purge will continue. Of course, Buxton never said that the purge would continue, and isn't on record as saying that he might consider approving a trade. And it might be possible that Buxton is trying to proffer evidence that is quite the opposite. If he through the Twins were going to continue the tear down, he would be ok moving on. But he isn't, because he doesn't think the Twins are going to continue tearing it down. 

On the other hand, there are words from Derek Falvey, which indicate that the team is looking to add to the roster as it stands right now. That would indicate that there will be no tear down, but he did give the caveat that there hasn't been any direction yet from ownership. A tear down may yet happen, but it isn't guaranteed. Falvey likely understands that the AL Central is always in play with a little bit of effort, and is willing to put it in.

And this tracks with the deadline. Per reports, the Twins asked for Christian Walker in a Carlos Correa trade, and Wilyer Abreu in a Joe Ryan deal. Those are trade asks for a team looking to turn it around quickly. As with anything, it depends entirely on the Pohlads' appetite, which given the last year of headlines, may be a bit larger, if only to save a bit of face. 

Another factor that may loom large is the potential for a lockout after next season. Is it more likely that there is a lock out for 2027, rendering the two years left on deals only one year? Does that mean the Twins should maximize the value on their starting pitchers, rather than hanging on for only one go around? These questions and scenarios are all speculative. An early Twins trade will set the offseason. Hanging onto them will signify something else, something more optimistic.

But it's all speculation. Actions will speak louder than words. There has only been one spot of real news since the season ended. The Twins set their coaching staff for the year, including new manager Derek Shelton, a Gardenhire and Grady Sizemore. Players seem happy, and fans are warming up to the new manager. 

Other than that, nothing has really happened yet.

But what does Derek Shelton's return mean?

 

There is a world in which the hiring of Derek Shelton makes a lot of sense. That world is not necessarily the one occupied by Twins fans, who are disenfranchised by the ownership's decision to stop spending money, and the drastic changes to the roster that the front office took at the deadline. The hiring of Shelton also marks a significant landmark.

He is the first Twins manager to be hired that has had Major League managerial experience in 50 years. The Pohlads have never hired an experienced manager. Most Twins fans don't have any experience with looking at a manager with a track record, and frankly, any that are on the market likely have a few dark patches. As Matthew Leach points out, though, baseball history is littered with managers who had a significantly better time of it with their second go-round. 

Not to mention, this is Shelton's second spin with the Twins. He got the job in Pittsburgh because of his performance as the Twins' bench coach early in the Rocco era. He probably interviewed well with the Twins because what he did here back in 2019 seemed to work. Maybe also because Dereks just get along. 

In short, there are a couple of factors to the opinion on Shelton that I just don't ascribe to. The first that his track record is indicative of future success. We Twins fans just aren't used to having such a public resume. Second is that this is indicative of some sort of cowardice from the front office, or of poor decision making. 

One thing that Derek Falvey is not, is a coward. For a long time, many people wanted the Twins to be more like the Tampa Bay Rays, or have a plan like the Astros did when they tore everything down in order to build things back up to what they've been for the past decade or so. Well, here it is. 

After some initial success, the front office was granted some extra spending money, which they used to good effect and a playoff victory. When that money went away, the Twins needed to change horses mid race. Falvey was aggressive with trades early in his tenure, and made some tactical signings in the offseason. That slowed down as they tried to coast after the payroll reduction following the 2023 season, and struggled because of they couldn't afford any depth.

So here it is. The Rays/Astros method. What both of those organizations understood is something that Terry Ryan and Bill Smith never seemed to be on board with. Not every prospect hits, so when you are building things back, having more chances is a vital strategy to success (and a willingness to trade them when you are in your competitive success, since pennants fly forever, and prospects might not arrive ever). The important thing to that if you have a limited payroll, you are going to have to take chances. 

How much of Terry Ryan's ethos was driven by a risk averse ownership group? How much of it was a product of Terry Ryan's own personality? How much of bringing Derek Shelton back is because he is familiar face, and how much is it because Falvey is taking a chance?

Is the ownership group no longer willing to take chances, or can Falvey still try to run a baseball team? 

He sure didn't learn that here

 

View on Threads

One of the big stories this post season has been Seattle's arrival, and the clutch hitting of Jorge Polanco. Yeah, that Jorge Polanco. 

Polanco had, if anything, a reputation for steadiness in Minnesota. The Twins won a playoff series with Polanco on the roster, and he was an All Star in 2019, but he didn't really stand out as a clutch guy. Now, in the blink of an eye, he is a postseason assassin. He had the game winning hit in the final game of their series with the Tigers, and now, he has started with a .444 average, a home run an 5 runs batted in (matching his total in his Twins career) in a couple of games. 

Jorge Polanco had a long and devoted career as a Minnesota Twin, but it seems pretty likely that when most baseball fans look back at Polanco's career when all is said and done, people are going to think of his exploits as a Mariner. 

Daniel Jones and his fortress

This sure has been a down stretch at the Rhino and Compass. The Twins are bad, and posts have been non stop about how bad the Twins are. So let's talk about the Colts, who have been one of the hits of the 2025 NFL season, and Daniel Jones is having his career resurgence in Indianapolis rather than with Kevin O'Connell. How the heck did that happen?

In this area, I have no choice but to agree with Saquan Barkley. Last summer, he told Diana Rossini "You give him an offensive line, and I’m telling you, he’s a top quarterback. ... He has it.” A good offensive line can give a young quarterback more time to develop and figure it out, and allows a mediocre quarterback to be good, and a good one to be great. When the Rams went on their run with Kurt Warner, it was after drafting Orlando Pace first overall, not a QB or a weapon.

The Vikings are a perfect example of this. They've given special attention to their offensive line, and as a result, have been able to develop Kirk Cousins into something better than he otherwise would have been, and managed with Sam Darnold after that. The Colts have bounced from quarterback to quarterback in the last several years as well, with varying success. They weren't ever really bad but never particularly good, either. Philip Rivers was still effective, but Matt Ryan was over the hill.

They used draft picks to develop an offensive line that is now one of the better ones in the league, supporting Daniel Jones as he turns himself into an Indianapolis legend. And that line, the incredible part of all of it is that two long term starters left the team this offseason (to go to Minnesota of all places) which means that there is an argument that it could have been even better last year, and certainly two years prior when Gardner Minshew went to the Pro Bowl. That Anthony Richardson struggled so mightily with a line that is protecting Jones' renaissance is probably a factor in their being zero trade interest in the former #4 overall pick.

In retrospect, drafting Richardson was a colossal misstep. At the position the Colts were, it made sense to draft a QB, however Richardson wasn't ready for the NFL, and certainly wasn't ready to be a high first rounder. Given the choice, I think Indy would have rather taken Deon Witherspoon, the corner the Steelers grabbed a pick later. They still would have scuffled to an about .500 record, and would have needed a QB again now. 

I could see Richardson having a career like Geno Smith, where he takes a back seat for several years and reemerges somewhere in 7 years, taking all that time to learn the position, all while keeping his body healthy. Richardson famously didn't start playing football until late in his high school career, and bviously needed time to develop his understanding of the game, even if he had raw physical ability.

And I think Richardson knew this too. He's not arrogant, and has taken this benching in stride, as a learning opportunity. That's such a rare quality in today's world, and the sign of a future leader. 

A future leader. It's Daniel Jones' time now. 

Should Old Acquaintance Be Forgot?

The Twins had their fire sale, then they fired the manager. Rocco Baldelli is already being discussed as a replacement in one of the open roles across the country. Furthermore, Thad Levine, the former GM who left last season of his own volition, is being mentioned as as a candidate to take over the President of Baseball Operations role in Colorado. Clearly, the Twins have had the pieces over the years, which is a credit to the hiring practices. The problem is that they haven't been given the resources to buy the glue to hold it all together.

Even if this isn't the case on Twins fan sites, Derek Falvey has a reputation of a person with a good eye for talent. As the Twins start their search for a new captain of the ship, I think this is important, that Falvey doesn't really have a reason to feel unconfident in looking for the right person for the job, and despite what media and fans think, there probably is less imperative to find an Old Friend for the role.

Sure, there is probably some reason to consider James Rowson or Derek Shelton for the role, considering the existing relationship with Falvey. I haven't heard much momentum for Shelton after his turn with the Pirates, but a lot of outlets have their eye on Rowson, the former hitting coach for the Twins, and current hitting coach for the Yankees. I give Rowson all the credit for Trent Grisham.

I've said in the past that managers are as much about vibes as they are about anything else. I'm not sure Torii Hunter or Kurt Suzuki are the vibe the organization is looking for. Both most recently participated in losing Twins teams. Hunter has said controversial things about gay marriage and Hispanic players, while Suzuki's tenure with the Twins coincided with their most recent time in the baseball abyss, and was famously snuggly with the president when Suzuki's Nationals won the World Series.

I'm not saying that a person's politics should be disqualifying. The country is split, so I assume baseball is too. Hunter's past goes beyond politics, but the more pertinent point for Falvey and his managerial hunt is that everyone knows how they feel at all. That was one of Falvey's favorite things about Rocco Baldelli: The man was chronically coy, and all attention was to the product on the field. 

Most importantly, Falvey doesn't have a connection with Suzuki or Hunter. There isn't necessarily the draw to them for him or Jeremy Zoll as there are Twins fans with memories. But let's also not get carried away with Rowson.

James Rowson left the Twins voluntarily to go to Miami and eventually would take the hitting coach role with the Yankees. For whatever good vibes Rowson had with the Bomba Squad, there is only one player left on the team from that team, and Byron Buxton wasn't really one of the big bombers at the time. Hell, most of the players on the team now were only drafted that year, if they were drafted at all. I'll have to check my notes, but I don't think Luke Keaschall was even born. 

I don't need to see Hunter or Suzuki back in Minnesota, and I'm not sure the Twins are even looking at Derek Shelton. James Rowson is probably the most likely Old Friend to return to the role, but the hole point is this: Don't expect to the Twins' hunt to be as narrow as we've been led to believe.

The vibes are bad

 I've stated so many times to anyone who will listen that managers barely manager. Player development comes mostly from coaching, and in game strategy is rarely as impactful as we fans like to make it out to be. Managers, though, often reflect the vibes of the team. My biggest criticism of Ron Gardenhire was the way the team played with both hands around their throats in the postseason. Now for the past two seasons with Rocco Baldelli in charge, the vibes were all bad.

The inability to compete in the face of bad news (Joe Ryan's injury) in 2024 was appalling. The fact that year over year the Twins fall flat on their face in clutch situations, such as late in games or with runners in scoring position is inexplicable. There should be rises and falls in those numbers, and they should at least approximate your numbers in other situations. The nail in the coffin was the team performance coming out of the break in 2025. They were in must win series and couldn't beat the Rockies and Nationals. Yuck.

I have no problems with Rocco Baldelli, and I think he will be back on his feet quickly, but it was time to shake up the coaching staff. This can all be true, and it can also be just as true that the rot goes further up than that. I'm not talking Jeremy Zoll or even Derek Falvey, of course. This is an issue with ownership. No secret there, right?

The Star Tribune soft pedaled the Pohlads in a recent article, painting them as baseball diehards who are just as passionate about the team as we are, and wanted to keep the team, but that darn debt made it hard to hang on to the team. Since they got a cash infusion, they were able to keep the team, and look out, here comes some investment! In the context of that article, Baldelli losing his job makes more sense. The real purpose of the article, however, was this paragraph that heretofore unremarkable Pohlad Tom was quoted in.

Tom Pohlad pointed to what he said is an unfavorable economic model for small- and middle-market MLB teams like the Twins. In such markets, revenues “don’t necessarily support” amenities like a first-class ballpark at Target Field or consistently putting a high-performing team together.

Ah yes. That old chestnut. The Twin Cities metro is home to over 4 million people, which makes it larger than San Diego, Cleveland, Milwaukee and Cincinnati (the last one by a wide margin!) and all of those teams are in the playoffs. Going into the offseason the Twins have less money locked into place than the Padres and Brewers, as well as the Rockies, Cardinals, Royals and Pirates. That's some fuzzy math, but it shows who the Twins are punching with, generally. 

The CBA is coming up at the end of next year, and the Pohlads have proven time and again that they are willing to play the victim in negotiations with players. The Pohlads are in worse shape than other organizations with otherwise similar traits in part because of some misfortune on the TV side, but also a fundamental inability to run a baseball team like owners that actually like baseball. Their situation makes them a poster child for the owners' cause at the next bargaining table. 

A lot of hot takes I have seen after Baldelli's dismissal have related to Falvey's record. Sure, some of the teams listed above have greater success with similar progress, but no other team has had a successful team suddenly mandated to cut 30 million dollars in payroll, shortly after their 20 year peak. I'm happy to reevaluate Falvey if this rebuild doesn't go well, but I'm also not going to forget that whatever happens to this woebegone organization, the real villains are the owners. 

The vibes are never going to be great if you have to fight uphill against your own employers.

Softening the blow

The Twins have stared into a similar abyss in the past. In the early 90s, not long after the 1991 World Series, the team started disassembling piecemeal. It didn't help that the 1994 strike showed up and drove Shane Mack to Japan and Kent Hrbek out of baseball. Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson were never the same pitcher after 1991 (or before, really) and by 1995, the Twins had Chuck Knoblauch and memories. 

From 2010 to 2012, the Twins fortunes were also turned on their head, thanks to a couple of, well, head injuries. The run of contention ended when Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau sustained long term concussion related injuries. Whatever reload the Twins might have thought they were prepared for fell through with their two stars injured, and their supporting cast then leaving in free agency. 

Terry Ryan was many things, but he was not good at rebuilding quickly. The late 90s and the 2010s were dark, dark times. The Twins of 2024 and 2025 will now symbolize the end of an era. This was ushered in by tightening purse strings rather than injuries to major cogs of the team, though there were certainly injuries. Those differences weren't career enders, and nobody got away for nothing. Say what you will about Derek Falvey, but this time, the Twins saw the end of the line coming, and made sure to restock the minor league system.

For so long, I've heard many fans wish the Twins were more like the Rays. Well, you got your wish. The Twins have sold their talent at maximum value, trying to restock the talent on their team with young players. It's painful, but if the Twins are going to be a small payroll team now, they are going to have to be trading good players with team control to patch holes with young talent. 

Or maybe, the Twins will be sold, and payroll will increase. Whatever the case may be, the Twins need internal talent in order to form the foundation of the next contending group of Twins. The deadline hurt, and the end of the season has sucked, but the bounceback shouldn't take as long as other Twins downturns. 

With that hope, though, there must be an acknowledgement that this version of the Twins doesn't work. The strength of a contending team cannot be the bullpen. The Twins have tried to turn that into future rotation and lineup strength, on top of the existing prospect. One advantage of the bad teams of yore was their ability to allow prospects to develop. It's probably too late for Ryan Jeffers or Trevor Larnach to be a part of the next good Twins team. The same can't be said about Austin Martin or Brooks Lee.

The Twins were able to keep plugging Torii Hunter and Michael Cuddyer in to some bad lineups until it started to click for them. Royce Lewis isn't yet through his first full healthy season, like Martin and Lee. Martin seems to be figuring it out. Lewis or Lee could. So could Matt Wallner. And that's to say nothing of Walker Jenkins or Kaelen Culpepper, a couple of helium prospects in the systm.

The Twins are bad right now, and will probably struggle. There might be a work stoppage for 2027, but this is a team that the front office likely expects to be strong contenders within 3 years. Enjoy the ride on the way back up.