Disproving some common Twins myths

 

I'm including the full highlights of Saturday's game in order to confirm a couple of rumors that weren't in fact, true.

1) The Twins will actually win another game this season. This game ended a 5 game losing streak in which the team looked like they were in a lot of trouble. Of course, their last three wins were against the Tigers, so the dream is that they can even win a game against someone other than Detroit soon. We can keep our fingers crossed.

2) The front office HAS developed a pitcher. Bailey Ober came up through the Falvey/Levine system, after being a 12th round pick, and now is one of the three fully reliable pitchers in the rotation. Louie Varland still could get there, if he shakes his recent rough start, and failing that, could still go back to the bullpen, where he was dominant. That's 40% of the rotation! Joe Ryan made his first start as a Twin, and Pablo Lopez is going to be here a while as well, and say what you will, but I think it takes talent to add to a rotation no matter how you do it. 

Now, as yet to be proven, is whether or not Minnesota can win two games in a row, let alone two games started by home grown talent. Varland takes the mound Sunday afternoon to find out. 

Bad luck doesn't explain everything.

I’ve started attempting to write a post about the Twins struggles with injuries about 5 days ago. I was going to note that they had still been surprisingly competitive. Then, they went ahead and got swept in Baltimore, and continued to look flat in last night’s series opener with the Tigers. So much for being competitive.

There are a great many issues with the Twins, and some of them won’t be resolved with health. There is no offensive depth on the roster outside of a couple of positions, and even at full health, there would be concerns about filling out the roster with more competent at bats when players need a day off. There is also a fundamental area of misfortune that seems to have settled on the Twins that is different from last season.

The injury bug has burrowed deeper on the organization this season, as compared to last, where the injury concerns were more broad. Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda got hurt, so Bailey Ober and Louie Varland stepped up. The Twins lost Jorge Polanco, so Edouard Julien took on the role. No Byron Buxton? How about Michael A. Taylor?

Now a big issue Minnesota has had was not only the injuries in the Major League roster, but also the concurrent injuries to start the year in St. Paul. Brooks Lee, for example, was likely to be the first call up for the Twins if injuries happened, but then he was on the IL before the season started. Max Kepler was hurt early, and the St. Paul Saints were also short Trevor Larnach. Almost immediately, the Twins had to dig deeper when finding people to take important roles.

Austin Martin was expected to be a contributor this year, but not to the level he’s been asked to so far this year. Jose Miranda’s star faded last season, but he is back and playing somewhat regularly. Larnach is healthy again, but I don’t think anyone expects him to be a savior

Again, this is only a small part of the problem. Last season, part of the solution to the early slump and injury bug was Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro stepping up, and both have been atrocious. Edouard Julien hasn’t quite figured out his bat this year, and Christian Vasquez, fully in the role of back up catcher, has been terrible at the plate.

The Twins are going to have to be much better on offense if they want to pull out of their funk. Injuries have certainly been a huge issue, and not just on the Major League roster, but in St Paul as well. It’s a tougher burden to bear, and the healthy players aren’t bearing it well.

Another slow start with a lot of injuries

 Existence as a Twins fan usually involves getting more or less excited about some player, then seeing those hopes dashed almost immediately. The Twins don't so much string you along, as break your heart very quickly. I guess that's nice in a way. This year, Royce Lewis got hurt in the first game, and Carlos Correa got hurt only 10 games later. This is compounded with all the bullpen aches and pains that led up to the season.

Naturally, at the beginning of the season, Lewis was heralded as a breakout player, Carlos Correa was healthy and would get a bounceback player, while the bullpen was seen as a real strength of the roster, so of course those were all players that kept getting nicked up. 

This isn't a surprise at this point. It seems like the Twins are troubled by injury annually, and always early in the season. We speculate on who might fill in should someone get injured, and then we end up with a full season of Bailey Ober because Kenta Maeda got hurt right away. Austin Martin has been on the roster and playing nearly every game already.

Also this season, we've been granted another dreadful start. At the beginning of today's game, three players in the lineup started with an OPS below .300, which is actually pretty terrible. It's an unfortunate trend for as long as I can remember. I think over the course of my nearly 20 years (Jesus, 20 years?) of writing about the Twins online, I've had a nearly annual "who cares about the pitching if they can't hit?" post that comes out this time of year.

One trend this year, however, is that their "Clutch" rating isn't that far below normal. Since 2021, the Twins have the lowest aggregate "clutch" rating, according to Fangraphs, in all of baseball. Essentially, it shows how much better or worse a team does in high leverage situations compared to their normal performance. This should be a stat that levels off over time, and the Twins simply haven't leveled off from their awful situational performances since the pandemic.

This year though, they have hit nearly as well in high leverage situations as in regular play. Unfortunately, that's only because the Twins haven't hit during any situation. They went on an 0-28 streak with runners in scoring position, and it wasn't THAT much worse than they normally hit. 

These three things, the early season injuries, the slow offensive starts and the poor performance in the clutch can all be attributed to bad luck, small samples or variance in their own ways. But the trend is there. This happens every year, and there isn't really an answer (aside from a curse). Maybe it's cultural, or has to do with offseason workouts. 

Back when the Twins were regularly getting to the playoffs and turning into pumpkins, it was clear something about the team was different when they got there. I insisted it was time for a change at the top, to change the team mindset. If the Twins can't get to the playoffs this year, and this season opening funk is a big part of that, it might be time for a change in 2024 as well. There is something off here, and that's the only place I can think to look.

Local talent is staying home

I think there is always an urge for kids who have an opportunity to break free from their parents. Some kids want to go achieve on their own, some just want to get some independence. When it comes to college choices, there are those who want to get a new start and, I don't know, go to Purdue, away from any of their other high school classmates or family But this completely random example is not the norm, I am told. 

While there is an urge to spread wings, most don't want to go too far. A weekend drive home, closeness to friends, comfort with a region, things like that drive that desire. Who knows where that has put the regions athletes throughout the last 50 or so years. Sure, you could go play for the Gophers, otherwise your options were in lower levels or further from home. 

Minnesota for the longest time, had only the University as an option for D-1 athletes. The next closest D-1 school to the Metro was Wisconsin, who rose to prominence about as Minnesota faded. This was certainly aided by help from athletes from the Twin Cities, some of whom may not have really wanted to stray from home.

The Dakotas were even more remote and it's top athletes had to travel even farther. There were no D-1 Schools until the "States" made the football leap. Now there are 4 D-1 Dakota schools. All of the football teams are above average for FCS standards, thanks to being able to attract the best athletes in a broad region without much D-1 competition. Most are pretty decent on the court as well.

Now that the best players from the Dakotas (save for the stray player that ends up at Alabama) or outstate Minnesota have more local destinations if they don't want to leave the region, but also want to play at the top level of their sport. It almost seems like lately, Minnesota has been too obvious a choice, with St. Thomas on the rise, along with neighbors to the west. 

Granted, the Gophers compete in the Big Ten, and it's tough to attract talent at a national level to compete with national level programs, but at a regional level, local talent can compete in mid-major conferences. Obviously the North and South Dakota State success stories are evident on the football field. On the basketball court, the Dakotas and St. Thomas occupied 4 of the top 5 spots in the standings in the Summit League. This is generally an apt description for the Summit League standings.

There aren't other major conference options in Minnesota outside of the Gophers, and they aren't yet a national draw for talent, and a lot of the top tier talent leaks out to other programs. The mid-level talent is now already staying at home, just not with the Gophers, who are likely overlooking those athletes with more ambitious recruiting goals. In the last couple of decades, though, regionally relevant players have been given more D-1 options, and are taking those opportunities. 

The Twins need to hit

I think the local panic meter hit 11 after Bailey Ober's disastrous outing on Sunday in Kansas City. As the third starter in a rotation that lost key components in the offseason, then the bullpen lost key elements in the preseason, it appeared as the pitching staff is going to be a real problem. 

Long term, it will sort itself out. There is enough at the top of the rotation, and steady and reliable options further down in Louis Varland, a healthy Chris Paddack and yes, even Bailey Ober. The bullpen is yet to be a problem, and will be reinforced soon. Ultimately, though, Minnesotans spend too much time worrying about the pitching.

Last year, the Twins had inarguably the best pitching staff they have had in a generation, and ultimately won 87 games. In 2019, their pitching was worse than it is now (Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda were the top, but Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez were regulars in a fairly healthy unit) but managed to win over 100 games for the first time since 1965.

Why? Because they were pounding the heck out of the ball. That was the year that the Twins set home run records and piled on runs nearly every game. Regular season success coincides with the ability to score runs. The Twins were lucky to get to the postseason because of the moribund AL Central, then, as the adage goes, they won in the postseason because pitching wins championships.

To start the season, the Twins have cobbled together 11 runs. 9 of which came in the first two games of the season. Through their first 4 games, only 4 players, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Manuel Margot and Matt Wallner have wOBA above .320, considered to be "average", and Lewis is out, Wallner is a platoon player and Buxton and Margot play the same position. 

If you prefer counting stats, Lewis is the only one with a home run, despite facing the murderers row of pitchers that the Royals offer, and Jakob Junis, a former Royal. It's crucial to get Lewis bat taking cuts, but it shouldn't be THIS crucial.

In the projections for the season, too many people have discounted the Twins chances. Sure, plenty of people have the Twins winning the AL Central, but at or below the win total they had in 2023. I insisted that they would not, because Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa would be back to form, Christian Vazquez would hit better and they would have full seasons featuring Lewis, Edouard Julien, Wallner and Ryan Jeffers. 

It's yet to click at the plate through the first handful of games, and injuries to Lewis and a scare to Max Kepler surely don't help. If the Twins are going to reach the levels that I believe they can, they are going to need to produce more at the plate. If they can't score even 3 runs a game, it won't matter how good their pitching is. 

It was bucolic for 2 full innings

 The Twins got on the board in the first inning with a solo bomb from Royce Lewis, and everyone was feeling good. Even when Maikel Franco tied the game as the first batter for Kansas City, nobody panicked. The Twins would later go ahead in the 3rd inning, and didn't relinquish it, because Pablo Lopez was just that good.

The regular season started and prediction season ended. This morning, I was having conversations with people and explaining that I thought that the team would be well over the predicted 84-87 mark some experts have been saying. Sure, the rotation took a step back, but the lineup should be more improved this year than the rotation is weakened. 

The Twins had Pablo Lopez today, and will have decent starters for the next 4 games as well. Let's say they did get that elusive top of the rotation starter (Sonny Gray last year). That would still leave 3 games that are not pitched by elite pitchers, those 40% of games the top of the rotation is working are lessened by days lost to injuries. Having a top rotation is crucial in the postseason, but through the grind of the regular season, it is much more important to have a consistent offense.

In 2019, the Twins won 101 games by relentlessly launching the ball to the stratosphere, all while featuring a rotation of Jose Berrios and.... others. Last season, the Twins had one of the best rotations they have had in decades, and managed to win 87 games, but they did claim a series in the playoffs. As was my original premise, the Twins are going to be better on offense, and won't be much worse in the rotation. More wins this year than last year.

Of course, then the game happened. Lewis tweaked his quad, and it is not yet known if the injury is serious. Later in the game, Max Kepler fouled a ball off of his knee. Kepler is not likely to need the IL, though Lewis is still a concern. The Twins have many young prospects ready to get time with the big league club, like Brooks Lee -- oh wait, Lee is on the AAA lL.

I revise my opinion, as I didn't take into account the MOA curse. The Twins will be lucky to win 65 game. 

We made it

 

After a long offseason that started with an unclear television future (and one that remains unclear) with little action in the offseason market, followed by a nearly ceaseless string of bullpen injuries, we are here, ready to watch real, regular season baseball on Bally Sports (if you can) or following along on the radio.

First pitch is 3:30 this afternoon from Kansas City, with Cory Provus on the TV mic, and Kris Atteberry on the radio at WCCO. I don't care if there is snow on the ground, summer is here.