The drain always circles back to injuries

 

Injuries have been a constant part of the Twins overall narrative for the last several years. The Twins are in constant need to resupply their pitching staff. They have added pitchers, good pitchers that have been successful, but it seems the better they are, the more likely they are to have an injury very shortly thereafter. 

Kenta Maeda seemed like a diamond in the rough, and then missed the entirety of last season after requiring Tommy John surgery midway through 2021. Chris Paddack was a force this year until he tore his UCL in May. Randy Dobnak has had 2 lost seasons now, while Tyler Mahle essentially imploded from the outset.

And it's not just the major leagues that are fraught with injury. Think of the casualties that would have been in the majors now were it not for injury. Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, and Blayne Enlow have all had issues n their rise to the majors. 

It's not an issue with just the pitchers, either. We saw Nick Gordon play with Billy Hamilton in the Twins outfield, because Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Kyle Garlick were all on the shelf at various points. Any asssessment of the Twins past and present needs to take the overall poor health of the team into consideration. 

So of course, why wouldn't health be a factor, both apparent and behind the scenes, in the biggest offseason story for the Twins and Major League Baseball. Carlos Correa has had a deal scuttled and a deal potetially on the rocks thanks to a failed medical with the Giants and the Mets. the Twins have continued to sniff around at their former shortstop, frustrating fans everywhere in Twins Territory. 

The Twins were in a spot last season where a short term contract with Correa seemed like a good bridge to Royce Lewis or Austin Martin, both of who seemed ready to arrive on the big stage in Minneapolis. Martin flamed out, but Lewis broke into the league and looked every part of the top prospect that was promised. The Astros moved on from Correa to open a spot for Jeremy Pena, and the Twins looked like they would be able to move on with an even better prospect.

And then Royce Lewis tore his ACL, and the calculus all changed. Suddenly, Lewis isn't a sure thing at shortstop anymore. How will his lower body respond to the rigors of short? Without a long term solution at the position, the Twins were suddenly more desiring of a long term free agent at short, and why not Correa, who had left a good impression on the team in his short time here.

But the Twins never intended, originally, for Correa to be the anchor at the position for the franchise. As always, injuries have steered the Twins towards a new goal, and Twins fans to a new disappointment

The Dakotas are off to a rough basketball start

 Maybe I spoke a bit too soon about the state of North Dakota State Bison football, as they are once again preparing to play in the FCS championship game, this time against South Dakota State. That they barely snuck past Incarnate Word in the semifinal is hardly a knock against them. After all, they did win the semifinal, and reached the final. The Bison are fine on the football field.

Now, the basketball team? All that I said was true. This is not a good year for NDSU basketball, who have started 3-11, and have only one win, against Portland, in their D-1 victory ledger. They probably won't make the tournament this season. The Summit League tournament.

It's not just NDSU, but every D-1 school in the Dakotas. In the first round of conference play, the Dakotas were winless. 

North Dakota has had the best season of the 4 schools, with a 6-8 mark, with their best win coming against, I don't know, Elon? Utah Tech? They also had a heavy loss at the hands of Portland, who is so bad they lost to NDSU, so I don't know.

It's going to be uphill for all of those schools in the Dakotas. Denver has looked better than they have for quite some time, and Western Illinois is finally feisty again, but the real threat is Oral Roberts, who still has Max Abmas, the best player the conference has had in a very long time. 

NDSU shook off their football slump this year, and now, the basketball teams in the Dakotas are tasked with proving that this is, at best, a one year hiccup

Twins pivot to Joey Gallo

 The Twins entered the free agent market late, thanks in large part for their misadventures in attempting to play in the top end of the free agent market. They had a lot of money to spend, but didn't put together a contract or sales pitch that was attractive enough to draw anyone to a long term commitment to Minneapolis.

The team did add Christian Vasquez, and given the need and market for catching, it seems as though the Twins wanted Vasquez, targeted him and signed him. He was signed before Carlos Correa left for the Giants, so circumstance also indicates a desire for Vasquez regardless of how other things played out. He fills a need for a veteran presence and a compliment to Ryan Jeffers, who has not yet grabbed the catching position with both hands. 

Free agency seemed to have passed without the Twins spending more than what they committed to Vasquez by the time Correa made his decision. Their Plan's B and C were already gone, and competition was stiff for Dansby Swanson and Carlos Rodon. The Twins needed o come up with a new plan, or at the very least, execute Plan F. 

Since Correa signed, the Twins have made one move, among rumors of others. Minnesota added left handed outfielder Joey Gallo, who possesses monumental power - I still remember him putting a ball through the windshield of a promotional Dodge Ram at the All Star Futures game - also provides some of the same strike out frustrations as soon to be former Twin Miguel Sano. Gallo, however, has a bit more positional flexibility, even playing center field in Texas, New York and Los Angeles at times along the way. He's no Byron Buxton, but also, he's no Gilberto Celestino.

It's also a further indication that there will likely be trades out of the existing outfield depth. The Twins have valuable trade chips, and a left handed redundancy with Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff, and now Joey Gallo all hitting on the left side of the plate. Adding Gallo lessens further the need for one of those players. The most desirable to be moved is Kepler from the Twins perspective, but Larnach or Kirilloff might bring back a better return. With little left on the free agent market, it seems like trading from this resource will lead to the heft of the pitching or infield upgrades they make.

The Twins needed to start enacting a new plan to field a competitive team in 2023. They certainly haven't executed it yet, but the move for Gallo certainly sheds some light on the direction it might take. 

Adding pitching is hard!

 

Here we are, two days into the Winter Meetings, and Twins fans are on the cusp of a meltdown. Trea Turner signed below expectations, while Justin Verlander and Jacob DeGrom were signed to big deals elsewhere. In the eyes of the typically panic stricken Twins fan, this means, for some reason, that the Twins are going to be left out in the cold this offseason.

There are a couple of reasons for that, I guess. Perennially, the Twins fanbase always want the Twins to nab an "ace" which is a nice thought. The Twins fanbase always tabs the top several pitchers as "aces" even if they are not. Verlander and DeGrom, sure, but they were never in the plans for Minnesota. Since he is available, locals have labeled Carlos Rodon as the ace the Twins need. Yikes. 

Rodon has a long track of injuries to go along with recent success, which would make the Twins pause, and his status at the top of many organizational wish lists would make him expensive, even before you look at what has gone on Tuesday evening. Taijuan Walker signed with the Phillies for $72m over 4 years, which is an 18m/yr valuation. That's 6 more than Sonny Gray is making, and I'm not fully convinced that Walker is a more reliable asset, given his history.

So imagine how much Rodon, more well regarded than Walker, is going to command. It's hard to find another pitcher on the market that decidedly makes the Twins rotation better in 2023, aside from Rodon, and I seriously doubt the Twins want to play well above market for something that might not be a lift, anyways. 

Which explains the rumor today that Luis Arraez has been discussed as available in trades for pitchers. This would hurt l
ike crazy, because Arraez is a popular figure in the clubhouse and in the region, but also because Arraez would only be a small portion of a trade to get a better starter. The Twins would have to trade a popular player, AND send another prospect in order to get a pitcher that would move the needle.

The market is foreboding, and the Twins don't have any really good options from which to generate a trade. This is apparent, but I bet there are going to be a lot of upset fans if an addition isn't made!

At last, the Winter Meetings are back

What cold, dark winters these past two have been. There was the pandemic, of course, and then the lockout, both of which truncated the offseason, and terminated the Winter Meetings as we knew them. Executives and agents are arriving this weekend in San Diego to start the 2022 edition of the meetings, which will continue through mid-week.

There will be all sorts of meetings to go over rules and objectives for the league during the day, but between the bigger events and panels, the real action happens. These team leaders and player agents will have a chance to connect in person, in real time, and it is here that the offseason really gets underway. 

Without the ability to meet in person 2 years ago, or the restriction on the business that could actually be done last year, the 2022 edition should bring back what everyone loves about the Meetings. Between the larger meetings, people will meet in hallways and hotel rooms. An affair that already kept odd hours, transactions may spill even later in to the night, at least on central time. 

While the transaction wire is heating up, and a three day marathon refreshing MLBTradeRumors at all hours is an exciting thing to look forward to, the Twins have a long history of making a lot of noise, but not having a lot of action at the winter meetings. I wouldn't be surprised if that is how these meetings go either, even with the expectation that the Twins will be active this winter.

Minnesota is likely to throw a lot of money around in free agency. They have the capability, but have also shown a reluctance to get into bidding wars. Surely, they are willing to spend money, as Josh Donaldson and Carlos Correa have proven, but they are loathe to get into bidding wars. If there is a price, they will pay it. They haven't followed the market upward very often, however. Maybe they sign Correa again in San Diego, but barring that, I would be surprised if free agency doesn't get started until January for the Twins. 

Similarly, I'm not sure what the big trade the Twins might be looking to make would be. Sure, they could get better in the rotation, but that isn't going to fall into their lap, and they have little in the way of tradeable capital for a team looking to rebuild. Maybe they could get something together later in the offseason after smaller moves are made to accrue some prospect depth.

Even if the Twins aren't active, aside from the Rule 5 draft, perhaps, it's nice to have an old staple of the offseason back. Get ready for a non stop barrage of baseball headlines for the next week. 

The Twins have been busy, and it's only Thanksgiving

The Twins spent the week before Thanksgiving showing off some new looks. They got some new uniforms, and also swapped out some infielders and minor league pitchers. There has been a lot of ink spilled on the Twins new looks, but not as much on the swap of Gio Urshela to the Angels and the trade for Kyle Farmer from the Reds. 

Since everyone has wanted to talk about the uniform, sure, I'll share two quick thoughts about them. A lot of the complaints have been "This uniform looks too much like another team." I've heard that about a lot of the looks, the new M logo in particular, but in reference to a bunch of different teams. There are only so many ways to put together a uniform, and you are bound to have some overlap between uniform stylization, fonts or color combinations. I'm not a big fan of uniform changes, but these are all fine for me. 

I like that the pinstripes returned for the road grays. I like that there is no piping on any of the uniform lettering, which looked busy, and was always in gold, which didn't go with the other colors. I like that the blue is a deeper navy. It's more unique, and looks better with the white. I especially like the thumbing of the nose at outstate Minnesota with the Twin Cities alternate. I also believe that the baby blue will return as part of the "City Connect" uniforms, coming soon.

First, on the day the Major League Baseball had set as the arbitration deadline, the Twins sent Urshela to Los Angeles for minor league prospect, pitcher Alejandro Hidalgo. Urshela was a valuable piece of the Twins last season, but was also a duplicate piece to Jose Miranda at third, and whomever is going to play first base in 2023. It's hard to see good guys go, but on the baseball operations side, selling him for the highest offer was the right move. 

The Twins then turned around and sent the Reds pitching prospect Casey Legumina in order to acquire Farmer. Farmer isn't the offensive player that Urshela is, but he does offer defensive depth at places Urshela doesn't. Farmer started as a catcher, but he has gained defensive versatility through the years, and is now a capable middle infielder, and offers a stopgap both behind the plate and at short, the two places the Twins need to add. Heck, Farmer is also good against lefties at the plate, another area the Twins needed to make up ground.

This offseason is still in it's infancy, and fans and followers of the team still await the splashier moves from the Twins, but the reshuffling of infielders and the changeover of prospects (Hidalgo is actually rated higher than Legumina according to MLB Pipeline, for whatever that is worth) is a sign that the Twins have a plan, and are in no rush to upset it. 

You know, seeing "Farmer" on the back of the "Twin Cities" jersey will be pretty funny. 

North Dakota State's fairy tale is coming to an end

 

NDSU has been on quite a ride since they made the leap to division 1. The football team built itself up from it's ascent to FCS, and 7 years after they made the leap, won their first national title in 2011. Aside from 2016 and 2020, they have won it every year since. They've had three quarterbacks go to the NFL - Carson Wentz, Easton Stick and Trey Lance, which is a better rate than many other schools out there. During that run, they've usually been ranked #1, and have nipped quite a few power 5 schools along the way.

This year, there is something off with the Bison. The scoring hasn't been as robust as in previous seasons, and they've dropped two games. They lost to Arizona, which is a pretty tough loss to take for any FCS school. They also lost to South Dakota State who is now ranked number 1. There is no shame in that, of course, unless you are accustomed to be #1 instead. Right now, North Dakota State is ranked 4th in FCS.

Ultimately, this may go down as one of the worst seasons NDSU has had in over a decade.

The men's basketball team has been more successful than average for a school of it's size as well, even securing an NCAA Tournament win in 2014, and stops in the Big Dance 4 times since their ascent to D-1. They would have made it 5 times were it not for the pandemic. 

This year has been one of turnover, though. Long time stalwart Rocky Krueser is now plying his trade in Germany, and left behind a young, unproven roster. Suffice to say at this point, it would be surprising if they were an NCAA tournament team. Again, it is South Dakota State looking strong in the Summit, while the Bison have started 0-4. They lost to Arkansas and Kansas, which make sense, but they also lost at home to Pacific and were blown out by Indiana State, which are not as impressive.

North Dakota State has been very good across the sporting landscape for quite some time. This is the worst year they have had since all sports have been postseason eligible at D-1 for the two revenue sports. The football team isn't perfect, and the basketball team is simply bad. The real signature of a quality program is showing that they can bounce back from down years like this. 

The offseason is maturing. Get ready.

It's been since the end of the season that I have touched on the Twins, and we have been able to see how things have settled out. We know that the Astros won the World Series, again, showing the value of a good organization, rebounding after an important player - Carlos Correa - departed, and recovering from one of the biggest baseball scandals in years. The Phillies, even in losing the Series, reiterated the value of going for it if you have an opportunity. 

Those two lessons are some that the Twins can take with them to the offseason. At the beginning of November, before attention turned to the Vikings, the attitude of "why bother" permeated the Twins fan base. There were wailings and ill feeling for the Twins. Then there was a wave of writers speculating on the Twins adding a top starter, catering to the masses who think that is the best and only way for the team to get better. Now, though, with free agency getting ready to really take off, and the itinerant fans redirecting their attention elsewhere, the tone has traded, and we can really start talking.

We had to fight through the initial call for the Twins to sign a free agent starter. Everyone and their brother called for the Twins to sign Carlos Rodon, to the point that it seemed like many fans would feel it a failure if Rodon didn't sign with the Twins. Then, the realization came that Rodon was really the only attainable top end starter on the market, and there would be a lot of competition for him. Other starters that could sign in Minnesota aren't really better than the options on hand. It seems as though the front office will be forgiven for an ill fitting free agent market.
The trade market should be robust, and I think we will see a bit of action there. Some people think trades are as bad or risky as free agency, because prospects are lost instead of money. That said, with free agency, you are likely going to have to pay for bad years at the end of a contract, and players, pitchers especially, are more prone to injury with the more they play. Trades for younger players are going to be less financially burdensome, and will lead to a higher ratio of games healthy for the season. 

Where it gets really interesting, I think, is on the position player side of things. A lot of attention is being paid to the short stop position, where Carlos Correa is a potentially departing free agent. There are 4 big named free agents ready to hit the market. After spending big at the position last year, there is a real possibility the Twins will do so again. 

The Twins also need another solid right handed bat to go along with Jose Miranda and Byron Buxton. There are many available on the market, and all available at any rate one might expect. There are so many options on the table, nobody really knows where they might go. Twins Daily alone has pieces speculating on Mitch Haniger, Joey Gallo and Tommy Pham as fits. There are a lot of different directions the Twins can go.

And there is also a lot less risk. They can make the moves in free agency for a position player that the early offseason fan base wanted the team to make for pitching. The money is significantly less likely to be thrown away if the signing is a hitter. The Twins have also shown a willingness to shell out for position players. The ability and the willingness to add a good bat is going to be an interesting thing to watch, especially since we don't know who or how that bat will be, or where they come from.

The offseason din has become a bit more realistic. Let's see, when people start paying attention to the Twins again closer to the spring, In the mean time, get ready for a busy, often unexpected winter. 

Iowa's golden generation

 

The Iowa Hawkeyes got a scare on Sunday afternoon, going to overtime with in-state rival Drake, but entering the third year of Caitlin Clark's collegiate career looks like it might be the best season Iowa women's basketball has ever had. 

Clark has been one of the best players in college basketball since her freshman year, a home grown scoring machine that has managed to keep the Hawkeyes afloat even during their growing pains of the past two years. Clark has been at the very least a top two players for the past couple of season, and this year, with Paige Bueckers recovering from an ACL tear, is likely to be regarded as the top player in the game.

Even with Clark's veteran status, entering her junior year, being the sole focus of attention would be burdensome as the Hawkeyes faced challenging opposition in the Big Ten and beyond, but she is buoyed by a veteran team, including center Monika Czinano who has returned for her fifth year in the paint for the Hawkeyes. Czinano is the 2nd leading scorer and leading rebounder so far this season. She doesn't have Clark's athleticism, but she does match the intensity and determination.

The other three players with the most playing time so far this season, outside threat McKenna Warnock, point guard Molly Davis and defensive specialists Gabbie Marshall are all also seniors. That is a lot of leadership and self determinism surrounding Clark, which will allow her not to be consumed by the attention of Iowa's opponents. 

But the seniority of this roster also means that this is likely the last hurrah for this version of the Hawkeyes. Their road to continued domination in the Upper Midwestern basketball landscape was seriously and tragically dealt a blow over the summer, when recruit Ava Johnson and her family were struck by a drunk driver in Louisville. They were in town for an AAU tournament, and sadly, her father was killed, and Johnson's injuries were severe enough that her basketball career ended before it really started. 

With that sense of urgency, the desire to capitalize on a veteran roster, the Hawkeyes are facing a challenging schedule. In part, that's because their in-state rivals are also better than they have been in a while. They held off a spirited Drake team over the weekend, and will face #7 Iowa State next month. They've also been slated to play in the Phil Knight tournament in Portland, and after a game against Oregon State, will be tasked with playing either Duke or Connecticut. Even without Bueckers, UCONN is #5.

It gets no easier when they leave Oregon. They will play #10 North Carolina State in the Big Ten-ACC challenge. The Hawkeyes are 4th in the country, and they are going to prove their mettle in the non conference slate. This is their time, and the Hawkeyes are poised to seize it. 

Luis Arraez is going to win the batting title

After tonight, there is really nothing to play for, except the completion of the season. The Twins are locked in third place behind the White Sox, but importantly, Luis Arraez has the AL batting title all but locked up.

With a .315 average compared to Aaron Judge's .311, and Judge likely to get tomorrow off after hitting his 62nd homer of the season after an arduous pursuit of Roger Maris's AL record, Arraez would need to go 0-7 tomorrow to dip to .311. That would require the Twins to have a crazy offense, outside of Arraez, which hasn't happened since May, and I don't expect will happen tomorrow, or that the game goes deep into extra innings, but I'm guessing we will see a court order to end the season before we see extra innings.

So at least one Twin will win something, and even more surprisingly, will do so by beating a Yankee for it. It's been a very tough season for the Twins, the fans, and people like me who follow too many Twins fans and writers on Twitter. Let's enjoy this shining moment before we have to endure what will probably be a stressful offseason.

Way to go, Luis! 

End of the year house cleaning

 It is unfortunate, but we find ourselves rapidly approaching the offseason. There is some table setting for the winter from the organization, and while none of the news is going to make headlines during football season, it is still important in the direction of the team going forward. Let's touch on a couple of things. 

First, there was the announcement from Derek Falvey that they intended to keep Rocco Baldelli on as manager. Regardless of where you or I come down on the matter, I think this indicates that Falvey attributes the collapse this season on injuries, and not managerial incompetence. Perhaps more importantly, if Falvey is making these statements, it suggeests that the Pohlads think this too, and that they won't get in the way of offseason activity.

The other bit of news surrounded Byron Buxton, who has had arthroscopic knee surgery. Not only are we cleaning houses, apparently, we are also cleaning knees. This was a surgery that could have waited if the Twins were still in contention, and will be a quick recovery. Getting this knocked out early sets Buxton up for a full offseason of healthy preparation for 2023. It also opens up the roster for guys like Matt Wallner for the rest of the year, short though it is.

As Aaron Gleeman noted at The Athletic ($) today, many players who picked up knocks were out longer than expected, never came back, or went right back on the shelf. Now is not the time to rush players back. Who knows, maybe there is an overlooked diamond in this rough season out there. At the very worst, it is fun to see guys like Caleb Hamilton get a taste of Major League action, or for Nick Gordon to round out his year in the outfield. 

We've reached the part of the season where the most important part of this year is planning for next year. It will mean a rocky set of games to finish the year, and won't make much of a splash, but it's what we have to do to finish things off.

They've done it before, Do it again!

 Optimism is hard, especially for a fanbase that has been hard pressed to find good results for over 30 years. The narrative around the team over the last month, foisted upon us especially by a local radio show, is that the front office and management have lead this team to ruin. I'm not here to argue about that, as I've done that quite a bit.

I'm here to point to one thing that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have done well, over and over again. They sign guys that we never believed they would. They signed Josh Donaldson, they signed Carlos Correa, and they knocked the Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco extensions pretty well out of the park. The Twins front office isn't afraid of making big moves.

And because of the moves they have made, and the contracts they have, they aren't underwater on anything, and have significantly less on the books for less year than they do this year. In the past, the Twins have attempted first to sign pitchers that might help put the team over the hump, but were unable to make those splashes. Looking at this years free agent crop, there aren't many high end pitchers that I could imagine the Twins vying for.

My analysis of the last few offseasons is that the Twins have wanted to sign pitchers, but when the big names decided they didn't want to come to Minnesota, they threw money at high value bats like Donalson and Correa. I don't know what would have changed. There are few Aces on the market, and the Twins have a lot of cash on hand. Since their shot at landing a top pitcher are limited, or has been unsuccessful before, why not make that flashy splash earlier in the offseason?

What I am saying is, I think the Twins have a more realistic shot at extending Carlos Correa than many people speculate. Royce Lewis may be the short stop of the future, but that future might be a little bleak, given two ACL surgeries. Still, Lewis is in the top 100 on the prospect lists. Without a clear future after Correa is hypothetically resigned, Lewis could be a huge asset for a huge trade for a younger starting pitcher.

But I'm getting ahead of myself. The point is, the Twins have the means, and have shown in the past the will to make big moves. Re-signing Correa is not at all out of the realm of possibility, and I would say makes a lot of sense. 

The plan of action will be a plan for action

 I'm not sure that this season could have met a more catastrophic end. Sure, the Twins were able to look like they had a pulse when they would play teams like the Royals, Red Sox and Giants, but when they squared off against foes with any semblance of competence, the wheels swiftly and dramatically came off. To wit, they have gone 1-9 against the Cleveland Guardians, the team presently in first place in the Central. First place by a lot after running rough shod over the Twins.

There has been an incredible amount of ill will towards the Twins in response to this pitiful end of the year. Judd Zulgad and Phil Mackey pin a lot of blame on Rocco Baldelli. Aaron Gleeman questions the decisions of the front office. Sure, questions can be asked of all of them, and I maintain that three years in a row of bad luck (i.e. another rough year next year) can no longer really be called bad luck any longer. But we aren't there yet.

I can also appreciate the opinion that the Twins need to make some moves. It would be intolerable for a team to crater like the Twins have and just stand pat in the offseason. The Twins were expected to finish approximately where they will finish - around .500, but the path to getting there has made everyone look bad. Looking at where things went sour should direct the Twins as to where they should proceed this off -season. 

The inflection point of this season, to me, was late May. I think that rings true for a lot of people, as it was their last winning month. It was also the month in which Wes Johnson left the team, and injuries started to pile up. They have to be related, right? So then it has to be addressed. 

Before anything else, the pitching coaching staff must be overhauled. Pete Maki was in over his as a midseason replacement. Maybe a full offseason of preparation would do wonders, but then, Maki was the minor league pitching coordinator since 2017, and should have a decent feel for the team and the players. If the Twins wanted to keep him on the staff, that is one thing, but I have to believe that Maki and bullpen coach Colby Suggs need to be replaced to even begin to appease the naysayers. 

I'm not a medical expert, so I have no idea how to treat this situation. The trainers and doctors on staff are probably very good. They have certainly been busy. But something tangible needs to be addressed. Even if it is bad luck, that luck is bound to change, and the front office would look like they had done something credible to resolve an overwhelming issue from the prior season. Whatever it is they do. Add a trainer, remove a trainer, introduce an organization wide calisthenics program for the offseason. Something! 

But make no mistake, this is a front office that WILL do something. Whenever they've had a hole to fill, they've tried to fill it. Right now might be the time to be forthright with what went wrong, and what they were trying to do. The pitching staff situation makes sense to me, even if it doesn't to everyone. The team started with Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Archer, Josh Winder, and Chris Paddack, 7 starters for 5 spots. Archer and Paddack have not been healthy for a while, and Winder was just now becoming a major leaguer. 

I think the Twins were attempting to have a two starter per game system. They were famously quick to remove starters after two turns through a lineup, and having Chris Archer and Chris Paddack combine to go through full games would save their arms and the bullpen, all while putting together an elite performance. Dylan Bundy and Josh Winder could do the same, or with one or two injuries, they could have hoped that Griffin Jax, (who ultimately landed in the 'pen), Jordan Balazovic or Cole Sands could have dropped into one of those low exposure roles.

I think it could have worked, but they were beset by injuries. Archer was over exposed and the bullpen was overworked. Nobody ever seemed to come back, and then the pitching coach left. We haven't heard this explanation from the front office yet. If this is an accurate assessment, we should! One of the criticisms has been that they don't know how to add starters. Laying this plan out would have demonstrated at least, well, a plan.

And then, after that, I have no solid advice, or even wishes for this organization. They have done everything I've wanted. They've been aggressive in acquiring assets. They resigned Byron Buxton, and even shelled out for Josh Donaldson and then Carlos Correa. They've become more modern in almost every way, and they are still getting the same results as the team did before they took over. 

This front office has been calculated when playing the free agent market, but they've always come away with players. Being calculated doesn't mean cheap, and they have shelled out for players that will come here. They've traded at deadlines where they were sellers and buyers. At least when taken at odds with the prior administrations, they will do something this offseason. Maybe they won't fix what is ailing this team, but Derek Falvey, Thad Levine and Rocco Baldelli are sure going to try. 

The Twins are cooked, but what about their employees?

 

It's getting to be pretty dark out here in Twins Territory. The Twins were a game and a half out of first and welcomed the Cleveland Guardians to town, looking to make some serious inroads in the final month of the season. The Twins never led for any of the series, and now find themselves 5 games out of first. I've considered myself a more positive fan than most of the fan base, but even I have to admit -- the Twins are cooked. 

As often happens in beleaguered markets, many fans are openly speculating on whether or not the front office or manager Rocco Baldelli may potentially be on the outs. Almost certainly not. Rocco Baldelli can't be held to account because a league leading number of his players have spent time on the injured list this season. That said, with the tumult on his coaching staff this year, and the absolute meltdown of the offense, it wouldn't surprise me if there were new pitching or hitting coaches next year.

Thad Levine openly said they were going to try to get weird with the pitching set up, but given he injuries they had, they simply looked like they had an incompetent offseason, because they had to fall into a more typical pitching cadence that didn't work for this team. Imagine how differently it would go if Dylan Bundy got to pair with Bailey Ober, Chris Archer with Chris Paddack. But even if there were longer starts, they still needed to generate a better bullpen. That too was afflicted by injury, but even in full health, it was suspect.

Derek Falvey came to Minnesota promising to develop pitchers. And he has. Consider that the Twins added and develop Jhoan Duran in a trade with the Diamondbacks. Bailey Ober and Louie Varland are former double digit draft picks. Randy Dobnak was signed out of independent ball. The Twins have developed pitchers. In fact, most of the top 30 pitching prospects were drafted in the 4th round or later. This is a systemic strength, the ability to make prospects out of lowly regarded pitchers. 

Of course, the Twins also have a knack for signing players that perform at a level that is not consistent with expectations, and find themselves injured too often. That is a discredit to organizational scouting and the training staff. And Levine's pitching strategy exposed the team to a lot of risk, and the worst case scenario came to pass with a reluctance to adapt. Even the healthy players for Rocco Baldelli failed to hit in the clutch. Seizing up in pressure situations was a hallmark of the Gardenhire tenure, and this is the second year in a row of this in the regular season. At some point, Baldelli will have to answer for this as well, fair or not.

Nobody should lose their job over this season, but if changes aren't made in their approach to near, time on this particular organizational tenure may be winding short.

Enough about the pitching, the offense is junk too

 It's no secret that the Twins were a completely different team in the beginning of the season as they are now. Practically literally. Between trades and injuries, there has been some tumult in the roster. Consider that Chris Paddack and Bailey Ober are 6th and 7th on the team in pitching WAR, and they haven't pitched since their 5th and 7th starts, respectively. 

I've long noted that the Twins have sustained a ton of injuries that impacted how they wanted to use their pitching staff. Ultimately, they attempted to straighten thing out by using a more traditional method. They added an innings eating starter, a strong middle reliever and a flame throwing closer, which should, at least, mollify the villagers with pitchforks for the moment.

What has been particularly excruciating to me is just how incompetent the offense has seemed of late. For much of August and early September, the Twins have found points to be at a premium. They started the second half unable to score runs after about the third inning, and now, they seem only to score after the 7th inning, leaving long tracts of the game to be scoreless. We've talked about the pitching, and the Twins have tried to address it. But what happened to the offense?

First, who were the drivers of the success of the first half? By WAR, the top 9 are Max Kepler, Luis Arraez, Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Gary Sanchez, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis and Gio Urshela. Larnach, Buxton and Lewis have missed extended tracts of time since that date. That's 1/3 of the players the team relied upon early, on top of contributors like Alex Kirilloff or Ryan Jeffers, who stepped up later, and are also on the shelf.

Since the beginning of June, we've seen the rise of Jose Miranda and Nick Gordon, but also the collapse of Max Kepler and to a lesser extent, Luis Arraez. Carlos Correa has really stepped up his productivity in the last two weeks, and is the primary driver of the offense right now, but 5 important members of the offense are missing.

Kepler has been walking less since the beginning of the year, and his hitting for significantly less power, seeing his early season ISO drop from .180 to .86, nearly a full .100 points. His BABIP has also dropped significantly as his inability to hit around the shift has become more apparent. 

Arraez is still doing ok, but his last two months have seen sub .300 batting averages, as perhaps the pressure of the batting title hunt are getting to him. Support behind him in the lineup being lost to injury or ineffectiveness surely don't help. He's also walking a lot less, perhaps trying to go for those base hits, and his BABIP is plunneting as he isn't making the same kind of contact, though he has found a power stroke.

That's 5 players, the three injured and two whose production has lessened significantly, who are affecting the offensive output. It's tough to deal with injuries, but Kepler and Arraez can offer some tips for the rest of a lineup mired in a slump at the worst time of year. Both are walking less as they press harder. Calm down, and let opposing pitchers make mistakes. Try to relax and don't press. 

The pressure is on as the Twins slip further out of first place, and the funk the offense is in looks more and more like a lethal flaw to their postseson hopes. 

The MOA curse

Given that the Twins have just swept the Giants at Target Field in extremely compelling fashion, perhaps this isn't the most opportune time to reveal my findings. I've always joked about a curse in Minnesota, and I think, at long last, I've found the source. 

First, let's go back to the last time there was any success whatsoever in Minnesota men's sports. Back in 1991, the Twins won the World Series, but also, the Minnesota North Stars were in the Stanley Cup Finals earlier in the year. Then, less than two seasons later, Norm Green chose to move the team to Dallas. 

Green is a terrible guy, overall, and said he wanted to move the hockey team from Minnesota because it wasn't popular enough. The hockey team that just reached the Stanley Cup, he claimed, wasn't popular enough because college and high school hockey were TOO popular. All right, buddy. If this sounds bogus to you, that's because it probably was.

Not only did Green chase money (he'd already relocated the Atlanta Flames to Calgary as well) there were allegations of sexual harassment and perhaps an affair. His wife is reported to have demanded that Green move the team. Green originally intended to move the team to Los Angeles (only to be supplanted by the Anaheim Mighty Ducks) and settled on Dallas, again, to get away from the temptresses in Minnesota. 

So they moved, and the Met Center, in the foreground of the above image, was torn down. The sports complex south of 494 in Bloomington had been turned to rubble, with Metropolitan Stadium having been torn down years before, when replaced by the Metrodome. The sin wasn't that the stadiums were torn down. Curses don't start until graveyards are disturbed.

The Met Center was replaced by the Bloomington Ikea, but the Mall of America opened just over 30 years ago, on top of the remains of the former home of the Twins and Vikings, Metropolitan Stadium. Since the mall opened, and sports abandoned this site for good when the North Stars left, Minnesota has failed to put a men's sports team into any championship game or series ever since. Think about that the next time you are at Bubba Gump Shrimp Company, on the desiccated remains of Minnesota Sports history. 

Since the final blow to sports at this site was the scornful wife of a misogynist, the sports Gods had one final tweak to other misogynists in the area. You'll note that the curse applies only to men's sports. Women's sports have proven to be extremely successful. The curse remains intact for those that can't appreciate that. 

Twins punchless, plummeting

 The The Twins are in the midst of a 5 game losing streak at the hands of two teams from Texas. The Rangers aren't very good, and didn't provide Minnesota with very good opposing pitchers. The Astros are excellent, and sent Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez to the mound. The Twins haven't hit any of them. 

Looking at the run totals for the season, you might be surprised to see that the Twins are actually in the middle of the pack for total runs scored this season. The opening day roster suggests they should have scored more runs. This last couple of weeks has one wondering how they are even that high on the list.

Since this writing, they have also tried Tim Beckham, and I forgot Kyle Garlick. The Twins don't want to be trotting Cave out there either https://t.co/uqlLbeKBEe

— Ryan Henning (@RhinoandCompass) August 24, 2022

Corner outfielders are premier offensive positions, and a huge source of offense for teams. Same with corner infielders and the designated hitter. It's good that the Twins have got offense from Byron Buxton in center, Carlos Correa at short and Jorge Polanco at 2nd, but it's not enough to make up for the dearth of good options in the premier offensive spots. There is certainly something to be said for players not pulling the weight that they should be, notably Max Kepler, Correa and Polanco, but what can you expect when you are forced to send Tim Beckham to play left Field? There have been some bright spots in the corners, of course. Jose Miranda is hot this summer, and having a very good rookie season. He is being relied upon to be the biggest bat in the middle of the order, and that is simply too much weight. Luis Arraez, playing first, has the highest batting average in the league. He's slumping right along with the rest of the team, and his average is fairly empty, with an ISO of .111, and a walk rate of a surprisingly low 9%. The Twins patched up a terrible bullpen and added a top starter to the rotation at the deadline, and subsequently have been losing able bodied players steadily through August. Along with that, they have started losing games, ground on the Guardians and mojo, wherein mojo is the general ability for players to hit the baseball. They survived the bullpen woes thanks to their ability to score runs, but no amount of pitching will help this team if they can no longer score runs. The Twins will start getting some of their injured players back in the coming weeks. As of this writing, the Guardians are trailing in Seattle. If the Twins can pull off a win tonight, they will only be 3 games out of first place, despite not playing well, and being beset by injuries to the better part of their offense late, and their pitching early. The team has projected optimism, even amid the frustration, and getting some guys back to play important positions might allow those feelings to spread back to the fan base.

The Twins are pissed

 The Twins are a fun group this season. They are winning games, they have good personalities in the dugout and Rocco Baldelli keeps it loose. They have certainly had their downs to go along with the ups, but they haven't let the downs submarine their season. Think back to their back breaking losses so far. Probably more than you can count, but yet, the Twins still have a running record, no extended losing streaks, and many of those painful losses were set up by come backs earlier in the game.

Nearly everyone on the roster has seen the Injured List at some point this season, on top of the roster being reshuffled. There shouldn't be as much chemistry as there actually is. It makes me wonder if having the triple A side just across the river in St. Paul helps out in this type of situation, where there is a heavy need for call ups.

With the trade deadline now come and gone, the front office has made expectations clear. They are in it to win it this year. As if there wasn't enough pressure from the White Sox and Guardians, they are putting it on themselves now as well. For all appearances as a laid back crew, this is a serious baseball team.

Cut to the end of their series with Toronto. You know the play. I'll provide you with the thorough, expletive laden breakdown from Jomboy Media

It was a pretty ok series for the Twins. If this call went the other way, they would have won a 4 game set with a good opponent, but alas, it did not go the way the Twins, or most right thinking individuals thought it should. In the strictest measure, this game was a loss, and allowed the Sox and Guardians to keep pace with the Twins. 

Many coaches and managers like their team to encounter some adversity so they will be ready for the grind of the postseason. It's been pretty chill at Target Field so far, and the Twins schedule isn't among the most challenging to wrap things up. This call could be the rallying point. Everyone is out to get us, and more than just working towards the same goal, they've all been wronged in one fell swoop. That's team building, for better or worse.

Mild mannered Rocco Baldelli rose to the occasion, tearing the umpire crew a new one, and continuing his tirade unabashedly in the following press conference. For a guy that has been criticized for his constant levelness, he came to life on a critical moment at the end of a crucial series and stood up for the team. 

The Twins were winning, and now they are righteously indignant. It's a new look for this team, so let's see how they wear it. 

Look out, Sandy Leon is coming

 A lot of weird things happened during the weekend series with the Toronto Blue Jays. There was the win on Friday that came after new closer Jorge Lopez blew a save (after the Twins had already almost already given up a 5-0 lead) that was ultimately won when Tim Beckham hit into a fielders choice, scoring Nick Gordon, but only after Jake Cave reached on a strikeout. There was Rocco Baldelli running out the same cast of pitching characters the next day for a little load testing. There was whatever the hell last night's ending was. Among the strangest things of all, though, was that I might be falling in love with new catcher Sandy Leon.

I give Minnesota fans a hard time about our attachment to first impressions, but I am just as prone to love at first sight as anyone else. And I mean, if we all loved Willians Astudillo, what's not to love about this total package?

Before the Friday game against the Blue Jays, I told my friend to watch out for Toronto catcher Alejandro Kirk, who was my favorite shaped player. Kirk is short and round. An everyman among ball players. Kirk pinch hit late in the game and stood next to Leon, who was catching, and it really brought things into perspective. Leon is an absolute unit. 5'10. 235 pounds, with 215 of those pounds (estimated) in his haunches. 

Aside from the skin deep attraction, Leon's also made a pretty decent first impression at the plate. Improbably, he came to the Twins with an OBP of .381, and it has only gone up since he arrived in town. Granted, it's only been three games, but Leon is only in town to keep Ryan Jeffers' roster spot warm. 3 games may ultimately be a good chunk of his time in the uniform.

He's been one of the studs in the games he has played. They are 3-0 when Leon starts, and he had a clutch double last Thursday, and reached base at important junctures on Saturday. He's been a good receiver throughout his career, and he hasn't disappointed yet with the Twins either.

What's not to love? 

Twins swing four trades on deadline day, silence critics for almost an hour.

 If you have listened to people on Twitter, Facebook or family gatherings for the last couple of months, it has been relentless grousing about how the Twins didn't do anything in the offseason, and they weren't going to do anything at the deadline, and ultimately, that they had missed the boat on doing things, even with a full 24 hours to the deadline. I insisted that they had done a lot of things in the offseason, and they were going to do something to address the shortcomings of the roster, but they had a tendency to wait for the last moment to do it.

I was right! 

While the Twins fan base peppered social media with hopelessness, the Twins turned around and did everything that those negative nellies said they needed to do, but couldn't or wouldn't. The team needed another starter to move towards the top of the rotation. There were three good ones available, and after Luis Castillo went to Seattle and Frankie Montas to the Yankees, the wailing and gnashing of teeth grew louder. The Twins weren't going to sacrifice the farm for Castillo and didn't have the pitchers Oakland wanted, so they added Tyler Mahle from the Reds for a price that they were comfortable with.

The Twins gave up two fast rising prospects in Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, though neither was poised to take a spot on the Major League Roster any time soon. The line up, with Byron Buxton, Luis Arraez, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kiriloff, Jose Miranda and maybe even Royce Lewis will have spots in the lineup for a while. Stephen Hajjar, still a good prospect, is a 22 year old pitcher that is just now getting a grasp on the professional level. All of these players are good, but they don't have much of a place in the not so distant future.

Minnesota sent even more players to Baltimore for closer Jorge Lopez, a pitcher who moved to the bullpen and broker out in a big way this season, earning a trip to the All Star Game. The headliners were Cade Povich and Yennier Cano, but two pitchers from the international complex were included. Cano is a 28 year old Cuban who debuted, poorly, at the MLB level this year. Povich was a fast rising pitching prospect, but old enough and far enough down to be fully expendable.

Don't be fooled into thinking that the Twins gave up too much for Lopez. His bad numbers are from his time as a starter. Glen Perkins wasn't much of a starter either, but when he refined his offering and limited his exposure to hitters, he emerged as an all-star in the same manner as Lopez. He's under team control for another couple of years, and everyone outside of Jim Bowden believes that this was a good deal for the Twins, and a little sad for the Orioles, frankly.

The Twins also did a couple of 1 for 1 swaps with divisional rivals. The Tigers and Twins have often linked up for these little trades, and don't seem to have the reticence to do so that other divisional rivals do. In this case, the Twins added Michael Fulmer from the Tigers to work some late inning relief. This was the greatest area of concern, and the rental of Fulmer for Sawyer Gipson-Long, a prospect who has struggled at AA, made sense for both sides. 

The Twins also made a swap with the Cleveland Guardians. Minnesota has been rife with injuries, and the one that attacked the depth the most was Ryan Jeffers' injury. Caleb Hamilton isn't quite Major League capable, so Sandy Leon, acquired for a different Hamilton, Minor League reliever Ian, was acquired. Leon has plenty of playoff experience with Boston and Cleveland, and is a suitable stopgap, acquired at a reasonable fare. 

Unless your name is Jim Bowden, you were inclined to believe that the Twins nailed this deadline. They addressed all of their needs at a good price. It even quieted the Twitter masses. Well, until they lost Tuesday night. Then the pitchforks came out again.

We approach the deadline with Terry Ryan PTSD

The Twins likely knew that their bullpen wasn't perfect heading into the season, but also knew that relief arms are the most commonly moved players at the deadline. I'm sure they figured that if they indeed were contenders for the post season, they could patch things up at the deadline. Sure enough, they are contenders, but I don't think even the most pessimistic outlooks could have seen how comically bad this pen has been.

It has made many people opine that the Twins front office is inactive, despite the fact that they traded for or signed four starting pitchers this offseason (Sonny Gray, Chris Paddack, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer) and signed the number one free agent on the market in Carlos Correa. They were plenty active this offseason, but the flashiest moves simply were not in the bullpen.

The Twins have also not been left out of the deadline ever since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over, save for 2020, which was a bizarre year anyways, to say the least. Either buying or selling, this team has made moves when it was time to make a move. The success rate remains debatable, but this is a long change form where the Twins organization used to be. 

Terry Ryan was always loathe to move prospects, which in retrospect is even more frustrating, considering how little value they got out of guys like Kevin Slowey. Minnesota was often rumored to be in the mix for intriguing players, from Kris Benson to Alfonso Soriano, but Ryan and crew never came through in the end. People blamed the front office when Ryan was inactive, but the current regime seems to tell us that it was more Ryan's personality. 

Of course, in the interim, there were Rob Antony and Bill Smith. They were a bit more loose with the trades, for better or worse, but this is the first front office that I can remember in Minnesota with a history of being aggressive. A lot of Twins fans still seem to be stuck in the mid-2000s, when the Twins were mentioned as teams asking about trade candidates, but never following through. Falvine is different.

Injuries have ravaged the pitching staff this year, rendering a lot of the offseason work for naught. Recent rounds of injuries to both prospects and major league players likely limits the possible return for the Twins this year. On the other hand, Jose Miranda's July likely made him too good to be traded. Just because it will be harder to make trades doesn't mean that this front office won't, even if you don't believe they weill. 

Friday Links, and thoughts about those links

 Back in the day, when I would post regularly, I would make a point of linking to other content. I don't break news here, and I'm not the only person who has thoughts, so it is nice to get other perspectives every once in a while. Also, back in the day, like approaching 20 years I would write posts with quick paragraphs and thoughts about some of the news stories of the day. It started as "the Junk" and then it evolved into something else with the Victoria Times, and then it went away. Anyways, here are some links and some junk.

Fox Sports - CARDINALS REMOVE 'STUDY' CLAUSE FROM KYLER MURRAY'S NEW CONTRACT - The problem, for me, isn't that this clause was in Kyler Murray's contract. With contracts, they are negotiated by both sides, and when it was placed in there, Kyler and his agent signed off on it. Since he gave his consent, there was some tacit acknowledgement that he needed to get better at his game tape review, in preparation for future opponents. The problem is that the clause was released to the public. It seems like a smear campaign, and I can't figure out who gains from it, but it makes Murray look bad, and like the Cardinals have immediate regret over the contract. To his credit, Murray's statement about the clause, that the idea that he doesn't prepare is an insult to other players, because it's too hard to be successful at quarterback without preparing against them, was the right tone to take, Hopefully enough people read it, because it made me respect him a little bit more. 

Yahoo Sports - Nine MLB trade deadline deals that make sense: Baseball's best teams look to get even better - The trade suggested for the Twins was acquiring Jordan Lyles. "This may be the most boring deal on the list but Minnesota needs a starting pitcher and Lyles is one of those..." Who wrote this, Jim Bowden? Rest assured, Minnesota will do more than Jordan Lyles at the deadline. 

ESPN - Charles Barkley says he is staying with Turner Broadcasting after entertaining LIV Golf interest - I'll be up front with you. I like the idea, generally, of LIV. It's a smaller, golfer first platform that lets players have a better home life, that may eventually move to a relegation format. It's not traditional, for sure, but it can be competitive and has the potential to make bigger stars of its players thanks to more direct exposure. But it's gross, man. The fact that the money is Saudi, and a fairly blatant attempt to paper over the transgressions against journalists, women and humanity is gross. Donald Trump defending the backers to 9/11 protestors is a pretty on the nose distillation of all the problems with LIV. Yuck. It's hard to make the PGA look good, but you did it. 

Inside the Park off the face interlude

BOOM BOOM!! pic.twitter.com/kaZl9sDWlH

— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) July 28, 2022

Ouch

 

MLB.com - The 12 players most likely to be traded This also includes the three most likely destinations. The only time the Twins appear as a destination is for Noah Syndegaard. According to the internet, the Twins should get Jordan Lyles and Noah Syndegaard. Watch out, World Series, here we come.

NFL.com - 'We've Never Practiced That Fast:' Matt Ryan's Up-Tempo Emphasis Is Keeping The Colts Focused, Engaged And Efficient During Training Camp - Not only does Matt Ryan complete my "custom jersey" duo with the Joe Ryan Twins jersey, but he makes the Colts better. The Colts are good enough that they could probably be decent with anyone. Heck, they almost went to the playoffs with Carson Wentz last year, and did with Philip Rivers the year before. The problem is, this was a core built originally with Andrew Luck in mind, and they haven't had a stable quarterback situation. They haven't been bad enough to rectify that, and they want to seize on an opportunity before the Jaguars start coming around. It's good to hear that Ryan is being so well received, and have a little confidence that he is the right man for the job. Maybe he will even stick around for a couple of years. 

Purdue's spot among the conference shuffle

 Purdue is a bit of an anomaly as a University. It is a Land Grant institution, a public school in the Midwest, big and independent of the other state school systems, Indiana and Indiana State. It's a third major state school when many states have only one or two institutions or systems. 

As it stands, Purdue fits in pretty well with the rest of the Big Ten. It seems like a private school, given the name and reputation, but it's backing comes from tax dollars, just the same as every other member of the Big Ten (save for Northwestern), though in 2023-4, that will change. The conference is adding UCLA and privately funded USC.

A lot of Purdue's graduates are from the Chicago area, and the market is generally split between Northwestern, Purdue and Illinois in inexact measure. The diaspora of Northwestern and Purdue grads is greater than that of Illinois, giving the Boilermakers a greater audience outside of Chicago when their teams are on TV. 

Purdue is pulling it's weight in the Big Ten, and fits in with what the rest of the conference is all about. Even though it was one of the first members of the conference, and is well positioned within it. It's crazy to even talk about this, but with all of the tumult of conference expansion and realignment, and two very blue blooded programs from California of all places joining next year, it seemed like a pertinent topic for discussion.

Also, perhaps more than any other school in the Big Ten, or at least as much as any, they are perfectly content with adding whichever the most high revenue schools are that they can add. Sure, there are travel issues, but they are right in the middle of the conference. They likely don't have many worries about moving east or west as they grow. 

As ever, Notre Dame is the biggest target, and they have a lot to offer the Boilermakers. An inherent rival and much less travel than other potential additions for sports outside of the revenue activities, in addition to the built in national audience. Aside from Notre Dame, the primary objective for Purdue and any additions, I imagine, is that sweet, sweet cash flow. They are athletically capable and enough of a contributor that they shouldn't feel threatened by expansion or realignment.

The way I see it, there are two  paths forward for the Big Ten, and either way should be amenable to the Boilers. The first is with Notre Dame, which would likely mean three more teams to get up to 20. I suggest Boston College, Virginia and North Carolina as additions in this scenario. The second is without Notre Dame, and the conference could work to accommodate their California brethren. In this scenario, they would raid the Pac 12 again, with Colorado, Arizona, Oregon, Washington, Stanford and California all standing as options. Heck, even Arizona State plays in the Big Ten for hockey.

Almost everyone without a financial stake in the game ranges from frustrated to distraught with conference realignment. It's not good for competition, or for fostering regional rivalries, or supportive of the little guy overcoming adversity. But Purdue does have a financial stake, and they are going to be happy to go along with anything that comes down the road. 

Bullpens aren't easy

 Let me just say, that I understand and agree: the results of the Twins' methodology for bullpen construction are unacceptable. That said, I have no issue with the actual methodology. 

Saturday night, after Joe Smith had an extremely rough outing in relief, and a local Twins blogger lamented that Smith was the "only player the Twins added in the bullpen" which is not true, and even if it was, Smith brought some very good outings to start his Twins career. For the record, Minnesota also added, to varying levels of success, Emilio Pagan, Trevor Megill, Jharel Cotton and Jhon Romero, and likely would have used Chris Archer there as well, were it not for injuries that ravaged the team's pitching staff.

Now obviously, that isn't really a who's who of elite pitching talent, but frankly, that's the way teams successfully build bullpens. Look at the Twins of 2019, the last full season of good Twins baseball. The three busiest relievers were grown in house - Taylor Rogers, Trevor May and Tyler Duffey, but the next two were a waiver claim in Ryne Harper, and their one major league free agent signing, Blake Parker.

The person complaining about Smith being the only player acquired was obviously lamenting the fact that the Twins didn't make any additional free agent signings. Never mind that they have an extremely rugged history with relief acquisitions. Alex Colome had his worst season in baseball with the Twins last year. There was Hansel Robles, Tyler Clippard, Parker, Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, Zach Duke and Matt Belisle before them. There was some success there. It wasn't universal.

In fact, that's a pretty bad bullpen. Colome and Reed were probably the most high profile signings out of that group, but Clippard and Duke may have been the most successful. And lest you think that there is something wrong with how the Twins have signed free agent relievers, I tell you the free agency market for bullpen arms is fraught with uncertainty.

MLB Trade Rumors had 6 relief pitchers among their top 50 free agents this year. I presume that these are the relievers people wish the Twins had signed this year. While if you swapped any of them out for Joe Smith, it would be an improvement, but more likely, you would have swapped them with Griffin Jax at the beginning of the year, and it is less of a benefit. 

The important point, though, is how difficult it is to figure out who will and will not be successful. Of those pitchers, Kenley Jansen is the one having the best season in terms of WAR, though with a 3.53 ERA, demonstrating the mercurial statistics of relief pitchers. Next? Hector Neris. Is that who you expected? Corey Knebel and Ryan Tepera have been worth 0 WAR. 

A lot of people have pointed to the trade of Taylor Rogers tis offseason as well. Given that his results this season are better than they have been since 2019, it's hard for me to say that the Twins made a misstep in trading him, especially since Chris Paddack has been worth .9 WAR in his 22 innings of work. That's more than any of the free agent relievers, outside of Jansen, in the entire first half of the season, and Paddack will be a Twin for two more seasons. 

Again, this is a league where results matter, and the Twins 'pen hasn't been providing them. I am hard pressed to agree that the Twins didn't make enough moves to try to sort it out. They did plenty, but things haven't broken their way, and performance from many players has been subpar. Complain about the assessment of the bullpen arms before the season, and the depth, but the action was there.

And because bullpen arms are so perennially suspect, bullpen arms are the most likely pieces to be moved at the deadline, and the easiest to acquire. This is a front office that has remained active in their 5 years in charge, and it would be foolish to assume that they won't be this trade season as well. 

Let's talk about what's really bugging the Twins

 

After the last couple of weeks, it seems like the Twins have grounded into about 1,000 double plays. The number is still a league leading 71 GIDPs, which is very frustrating, but also it makes sense. Lefties are more likely to ground into double plays, and you can only do that if you have runners on base. Look at how the lineup unfolds most nights. Two of the best table setters in the game, with Arraez and Correa early, often followed by lefties like Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, or Max Kepler. 

What doesn't make sense is how the Twins completely shut off as games continue on. Fangraphs have a statistic called "Clutch" which measures how a player performs in high leverage situations versus their typical performance. 

The Twins as a team are a -1.06, which qualifies as "poor". Lest you think that this is standard, that teams just naturally perform more poorly in stressful situations, the Twins are 21st in the league in "clutch". Naturally, owing the spurious nature of baseball, especially on something like this which will likely ultimately converge to "0", one might believe that this is something that will settle out this season. Alas, the Twins have been well under 0 for the last 4 season.

One can come up with all sorts of reasons why this might be the case, but the mix of players every season is different, and looking at things more granularly, the "Clutch" score for player to player is inconsistent. Jorge Polanco has been near the top of the list a few times, except when he was near the bottom in 2019. Miguel Sano found himself towards the bottom, but he was one of the best before his injury this season. 

So with a normally spurious statistic, and a lot of noise among individual players, what gives? Why are the Twins so subpar at executing in clutch? The only plausible reason that I can come up with is that curses are real, and the Minnesota curse has struck again.

There is a lot of ink spilled over the Twins and their pitching, but the offense and whatever ancient artifact is spirited away in Tommy Watkins locker.

The same story: trade from strength

My standing opinion of teams at the deadline is that if a team is likely to make the postseason, they should really go for it. Only one team gets to win it, and anything can happen in the postseason. The Twins find themselves in first place in the AL Central with an increasing grip on the league as the White Sox and Guardians get battered on their schedule. The Twins should really go for it.

There is a widespread view online that there was a miserable failure of roster construction and pitching development by the front office. Had the bullpen had better options, they wouldn't have blown those three games against the Guardians, and could have had a double digit lead in the division. That's one way to look at it.

Another way to look at it is that the team is only a couple of players away from being truly dominant. Even better is that there is a wide array of pitchers that lift the floor of the bullpen. The Twins won't have to break the bank to improve the weakest point of the roster at the trade deadline. 

That wouldn't really be going for it, though. Instead of taking the bullpen from the potential for being a nightly car accident you can't turn away to being OK, the Twins can instead try to make the bullpen a strength if they are aggressive in the trade market this month. They have plenty of resources in order to make it happen.

I'm just going to point to one idea, knowing full well it may not work for everyone, but addresses some thoughts for the Twins. It's a three way deal to make it work for everyone. We'll look at every component that involves the Twins.

Twins get
SP Frankie Montas,  RP AJ Puk, MiLB C Rickardo Perez

A's get
MiLB 3b Spencer Steer, MiLB P's Andrew Painter, Damon Jones

Phillies get
RF Max Kepler

Like I said, this might not work for a variety of reasons. Namely, the Baseball Trade Values chart is probably not fully aligned with what GMs are thinking, and Damon Jones currently finds himself on the injured list, but the idea from the Twins perspective is there. 

First, the Twins have a need for pitchers out of the bullpen, so adding former top prospect AJ Puk makes sense. Any Twins rumor for the past 6 months has revolved around Frankie Montas, but in this instance, adding another starter allows the Twins to employ one of their starters as a shut down long reliever, which eases the burden on the rest of the pen. 

The last element coming the Twins' way, from Philadelphia is Rookie league catcher Rickardo Perez, helping to supplement some of the depth behind the plate in the organization.

The two players going out come from parts of the organization that are currently robust. Spencer Steer, this year's version of Jose Miranda, looks like he might be blocked in the long term by... Jose Miranda. The A's are said to love Steer, so he is an obvious component in any deal with the A's. 

The other area of strength is in the corner outfield. Not only do the Twins have a lot of talent in the upper minors or at the major league roster ready to play in the corner outfield, it appears to be a hot commodity on the trade market. The Twins have many capable corner outfielders coming up, and if the Twins can move Kepler instead of Kirilloff or Larnach, they would jump at the opportunity. The Phillies are reputed to be one of the teams sniffing around at Andrew Benintendi, and would likely be open to another option should the possibility arise. 

The Twins will have the wherewithal to make a move this summer, and they should have the motivation. Many times, it's a challenge to figure out what a team can do to get that extra edge, but this year, the writing is on the will. They should really go for it.

Popularity in England, but not in America

 I like listening to the radio, either over the air or streaming. Over the air is good for listening to baseball, stupid blackout restrictions and whatnot, but streaming opens up the world. I like listening to the local stations because they are one of the few bastions of community left in the world, but I also like to listen to streams from across the country, and across the world. 

I was listening to BBC 1 recently, getting a taste of England. English and American musical taste is parallel but not the same. Often, English artists come to the States and are very successful, and often the alternate is true. The BBC 1 crew was discussing this phenomenon and specifically their surprise at a pair of artists not hitting in the US like they did in the US.

The first was Estelle, who I had indeed heard of. She has charted twice in the States, once with American Boy, a top ten song that featured Kanye West. It was #1 on the UK charts, and peaked at #9 in the US. She also featured on Conquerer, which gained acclaim after being covered with Jussie Smollett on Empire. She's had a steady career in Europe, and was the first artist signed to John Legend's label. All of the signs were there for some American success. I mean, her first big hit even had "American" in the title. 

One thing that you need to succeed in the US, to make a long term impact is to be different. While Estelle is different than a lot of the offerings in the UK market, she had a lot of overlap with many American artists, and came at the end of a surge of R&B popularity. Now 42, it doesn't seem like Estelle needs to worry about diversifying her audience, and her peak was just at the wrong time. She had a hit, then disappeared from American charts, like so many similar artists. 

The other artist BBC 1 speculated on was Stormzy. Stormzy has never had a song chart in the US, but if you have watched any movie that took place in the UK, I'm sure you have heard his voice. Stormzy is undoubtedly the best English rapper, if not one of the most prolific. His sound has become intrinsically tied to the action and toughness of modern London.

It's not hard to figure out why Stormzy is popular. His flow is one of the most technically sound I've heard. The tracks he raps on are catchy and well suited for his lyrics and inclusion in whatever Guy Ritchie movie he is on the soundtrack for. Most importantly, he is inarguably English.

What makes him great in England is probably what limits Stormzy in the US. Sure, he is gifted and talented, but what sells a lot of hip hop artists to their audience is their relatability and authenticity. "Too big for your boots, but you'll never be too big for the boot" is a well crafted threat in England that doesn't make much sense to an American audience. "Got holes in my lapel/ from rubbing shoulders with your girl" would not rhyme when sung by a North American. 

Stormzy might as well be an alien. Americans can accept a Canadian that sounds like them (Drake) but having someone use vernacular that is totally foreign to the audience just doesn't work. It doesn't connect, when for many people it is lyrics that attract them to an artist or a song. If you are familiar with English slang and admire artistry, Stormzy is a hit, but that doesn't reflect the American audience writ large. 

Estelle and Stormzy are rightfully popular in England, and anyone that is open minded and willing to seek them out will probably enjoy them, especially if you like R&B or hip hop. Popularity in England speaks to talent, but it doesn't always translate across the Atlantic. Both artists simply had barriers to trans-Atlantic success that they haven't and probably won't overcome.