The Rhino and Compass, a sports blog
And congrats to all of the fans of Joe Mauer, who know longer have to get into pitched debates on his worthiness of his contract, his trips to all star games or his candidacy for the Hall of Fame. He made it. He's there.
And now we can all hear stories about how brilliant a player he was, his tremendous peak and the quality of person he is. Congrats, Minnesota, we can stop fighting about Joe Mauer, and just appreciate him.
The start of the offseason saw the Twins part ways with long time broadcaster Dick Bremer. Everyone was sad about losing a local legend like that, but I insisted it had less to do with Bremer, and more about the Twins vision for the future. If bidders knew what to expect, they would be more willing to secure the rights to air their games.
It seemed to me that there may even be some sort of a bidding war for the Twins' rights, and they were in a good spot, out from under Diamond Sports, just as the company collapsed. There were other local options. WFTC, WUCW and 45 have all aired sports before, including local athletics, and all were backed by major network affiliates.
Then, as we all know by now, we waited. There were interminable stories about trades the Twins could make or free agents they could sign, but no actual action. Every transaction brought a new round of those articles, with each local writer seeing the potential salvation of the offseason on the horizoin, still remaining among the available free agents and trade candidates.
Nothing has changed. Those articles continue to stand as reliable clickbait, the Twins still had the same logjams and the same areas that needed improvement, and free agents continue to find new teams. Derek Falvey has commented on the lateness with which the trade market has heated up in recent years, but it still feels like we are all waiting on the TV deal to fall into place before anything actually happens.
Recently, news broke that Diamond Sports might be pulling out of their death spiral thanks to a cash infusion from Amazon. Amazon will purchase the streaming rights that Diamond Sports owns, and presumably, will have access to regional sports network streaming opportunities in the future.
That means that in the end, the most likely suitor for the Twins television rights is the company that held them in the past. Now, though, they are getting those rights without the long time voice of the team, and the realization that there isn't much competition for said rights. But maybe now we can start the offseason.
The Twins are reliable in one area of the offseason. They can usually attract a pretty good international prospect every winter. The eventual maturation of these players may leave something to be desired, but based strictly on prospect rank, the Twins are often found among signers of top ten prospects.
This year, that prospect is Daiber De Los Santos, a shortstop that was #8 among this year's international prospects. De Los Santos is regarded as a top defensive prospect, so good that his star has risen this high despite a refined offensive game.
They also added the #39 prospect Eduardo Beltre, an outfielder who has more projectability as an offensive threat. What makes his signing truly remarkable is that his right handed. It's crazy to think about, but in about 5 years or so, the Twins could have a big right handed bat, if Beltre pans out.
All of these are big ifs, of course, and that is the lottery contained within international free agency. There is less material to observe when scouting these players as compared to the draft. International free agents are younger than even the youngest draftees, and cameras aren't as pervasive at events in Latin America as they are in the US. International free agency is much more about projection and physical development than even the draft is.
If you are looking for an inexpensive method to adding a superstar, this is the way to do it. Because of the patience it requires, and the lack of guarantee, it isn't necessarily the first option for bigger market teams. Hitting on a couple of these signings are crucial to the viability of small market teams.
Not for this year, though. International Prospects are signed because of their raw talent, not because of a particular need the organization can try to fill. De Los Santos doesn't add to the logjam in the middle infield among top tier prospects and Carlos Correa. Beltre doesn't offer a right handed option for the offense. It's simply easier to develop skills when working with talent, and its good to have talent in house.
The Twins are still looking to the future and spending some money, even if it isn't the splashy, Major League roster move fans are hoping for.
I've been pretty outspoken in my faith that the Twins will ultimately do something this winter. I have watched the Twins under the current front office wait out the market nearly every year they've been in charge. They've been particularly silent this year, but I don't think that will continue, and true to form, they will find bargains shortly before spring gets going.
The problem is that the Twins still don't really have a budget. There is no TV deal yet in place, and as yet, one doesn't appear close. The fact that it is taking this long likely doesn't bode well for the ultimate valuation of said deal. For the first time in a generation, teams aren't wondering how good a deal is going to be, but rather how bad. With the collapse of over the air television, there is less competition, and regional sports networks are evaporating.
The Twins are first in line to experience this. They are essentially testing the market for every other team that doesn't have the market availability the Dodgers, Yankees and a handful of others have. TV revenue is a major source of income, and organizationally, both for the Twins and or baseball, getting their deal settled is the most important thing that will happen.
We want the Twins to win. Derek Falvey wants the Twins to win. The Pohlad family wants the Twins to win. The Pohlads, though, have a stake in the team. They aren't just fans or hobbyists, and the Twins are still a business. Owners may operate the team at a loss, but at some point, they will seek to limit the haircut they are forced to take in daily operations.
And that is fine. There is nothing malicious there, that's how businesses work. The responsibility of the front office is to adapt. It's so quiet because they can't adapt, because they don't know what to adapt to. The longer it takes to get something in place, the later a pivot comes, and the harder it will be to have a cohesive plan. The organization has already started trimming their scouting and front office staff. A quick pivot is harder with less information already on hand. The longer the Twins go without a deal, the more impossible a task the remainder of the offseason becomes.
I thought a TV deal would be in place before Christmas. Maybe the Twins did too. Forget about the roster, this is the biggest story of the Twins offseason, and the longer it takes to get told, the worse the team is.
Everyone seems to have been sufficiently lulled. With January in full swing, journalists have had the chance to start talking about what to expect before spring training. As an example, MLB.com recently had an article assessing the 10 teams ready to make a big splash this offseason. It did not include the Twins.
There were obvious teams, like the Cubs, who are high payroll and haven't added anyone, except a new manager. IF you were curious, the list also included teams like the White Sox, whose move would be trading players away. The Twins are expected to have an interest in both forms of transaction. A third of the teams in baseball were included, but not the Twins.
They will look to relieve salary via trade if they can, with one of the options for trade former all star Jorge Polanco. And they have a desire to reload their rotation, and their mid week claim of Ryan Jensen doesn't really do that, unless you are talking about the rotation in Wichita.
The Twins haven't checked anything off their list yet, and are notoriously slow moving in the offseason. They have also, in recent years, not been shy about taking big swings when they are presented. The lack of anticipation of a big move by the national media is neither good nor bad. I think something is going to happen that will shake some local cages, at least, but I also don't think it will take baseball people by surprise.
I mean, except for the writers at MLB.com
An inherent issue with sports is that fans expect success, and when they achieve that success, they expect that success to be sustained. Look at the Gophers. PJ Fleck is the most successful coach the football team has had in about 100 years, but for some reason, the local populace is ready for him to go. What information is out there that tells you the Gophers will do better with a different coach? What coach is it that would bring that success? And why do we assume they would coach at Minnesota?
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have constantly faced those expectations since they came to Minnesota as well. They haven't won a title in Minnesota, but they also helped bring the Twins out of the mid-2010s doldrums, and haven't strung together bad seasons more than 2 seasons in a row. They have also built a strong rotation, and have proactively worked to avoid being underwater on contracts so they can sustain their competitive window, or at the very least, avoid prolonged slumps.
I don't think that there is much indication that the Pohlads are interested in moving on from either, despite what some perfectionist fans desire. Their contracts are up at the end of the season, and while we may not ever hear about a potential extension, we would certainly hear about a change at the top. Given the recent success after so much turmoil, I don't know that the ownership will hesitate to renew the deal, but will Falvey and Levine both want to return?
All evidence has shown loyalty to the Twins from both figures through the years. Both have been candidates for roles elsewhere throughout there time in Minneapolis, and while Thad Levine seems to have lost out to Craig Breslow in Boston, both withdrew their names from the candidacy for other organizations. I'm sure there is a certain personal pride in developing something and watching it grow.
Things change, though, and the sandbox that the two have had to play in since their tenure began is getting smaller. Without a TV deal this offseason, the front office has their hands tied. Will payroll forever be reduced? Will the Twins be able to give out contracts when they are deemed worthwhile, or are those days behind us until revenue streams in the era of streaming can be figured out?
If those answers can't be answered satisfactorily, will they be compelled to seek another job in another organization? There are only 29 other organizations that can hire either in a similar role, which is a consideration, but it is also unlikely that either would be out of work for long. They are watching scouts and front office staff being shown the exits as part of cost cutting measures. If that's not the environment they want to work in, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine could soon be leaving as well.
And who would want to replace them, given the considerable headwinds, and how confident should we be that they would replicate, let alone exceed, the success of the last 7 years?
